Fangraphs: Jacob deGrom Is Back

For once, the Mets backed deGrom with some early offense. One of the strange quirks of his dominance is that it came in games where his team hardly scored, and over 91 starts from 2018 through ’21, he went only 32–21. Watch a deGrom start in those years, and it always felt like a 2–1 game in the seventh. He was masterful — and he had to be.

This year’s Mets might change that narrative; they’re fourth in baseball in runs scored per game, a far cry from the light-hitting days of recent past. They hardly needed the pitching help; they’re allowing the fourth-fewest runs in the majors this season. Adding the best pitcher in baseball — and after his two starts, I feel comfortable saying deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball again — surely won’t hurt.

Yesterday’s game ended without further scoring after Swanson’s homer, a 5–2 Mets victory. That was the last of a five-game set against Atlanta that the Mets took handily, giving them a 6.5-game lead in the NL East; per our playoff odds, they’ve eclipsed a 90% chance of winning the division. For the first time since a 2015 run to the World Series, we might be seeing deGrom in the playoffs a few months hence.

That’s assuming health, which feels sadly tenuous. Watching deGrom elicits awe, but it also elicits worry. How can his arm stand it? How can he throw so hard so consistently? Will his body continue to betray him in new ways? He’s pushing the limits of his craft, honing each pitch to a gleaming sheen and overpowering lineups with it. I’m imploring you: watch his next start. The one after that is never guaranteed, and the multi-year run he’s on is rare even in the great sweep of baseball’s history.