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Monday, September 27, 2021

FINAL REGULAR SEASON OMNICHATTER! for September 27 thru Game 162!

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:20 PM | 368 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:30 PM (#6041964)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:39 PM (#6041966)
I guess the AL East/second wild card is the only drama we have left. The Cards have opened up a six-game lead for the second wild card, so the NL field is virtually set.
   3. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6041967)
Votto with 2 hr and 4 rbi today. .950 ops on the year. Eugenio hit his 29th hr. after being beyond terrible for the first 5 months of the season, he has something like a 1.18 ops in september. must be up to around -1.5 WAR now on the season... God, he was so bad.
   4. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:44 PM (#6041968)
Braves and Phillies are battling for the NL East title and play three games starting tonight. NL West title is still up in the air though the Giants should win it. There is a reasonable chance at a three way tie for the AL Wild Card;

Toronto beats Yankees 2 of 3, sweep Baltimore
Yankees lost 2 of 3 in Toronto, win 2 of 3 in Tampa
Sox win 2 of 3 in Baltimore and Washington

Three way tie. Hell make it a four way tie with Seattle winning out but that's unlikely.
   5. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:53 PM (#6041970)
If Votto hits one more home run in the Reds' final six games, then he will match the second best seasonal total of his career. If he hits two more home runs, then he will match his career high. Votto hit 37 in his MVP season in 2010.

Adding on to Jose in #4, there are three playoff races left, and they all have the potential to be quite good. Of course, the AL wild card and NL West races have been good for a few weeks now. The Braves had a game against the Rockies rained out earlier in the month, and as far as I can tell, there is no current plan in place to make up that game. If the Phillies and Braves end the season separated by half a game, then the Braves will need to make up that game with Colorado next Monday, correct? If the Phillies and Braves are then even after the game, then the two teams would play a one-game playoff on Tuesday, correct? I suppose that would occur the same day as the NL and AL wild card games. It shouldn't affect the schedule since it would be for the NL East crown.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 27, 2021 at 03:58 PM (#6041971)
Eugenio hit his 29th hr. after being beyond terrible for the first 5 months of the season, he has something like a 1.18 ops in september. must be up to around -1.5 WAR now on the season... God, he was so bad.

It's baffling that you could hit 29 HRs and have a 71 OPS+.
   7. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 27, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6041985)
It's baffling that you could hit 29 HRs and have a 71 OPS+.


It was something like a 56 ops+ with 23 hr at the start of the month.

edit: He ended 3-4 with a hr and a bb today.

.375/.448/.785 now in September.

edit 2: oh wait, he had hr and a double today, so, add a few points on to that slg%
   8. Walt Davis Posted: September 27, 2021 at 05:06 PM (#6042002)
It's baffling that you could hit 29 HRs and have a 71 OPS+.

A 215 BABIP will do that to you. It would be an obvious super-fluke but he had just a 214 in 2020 too -- almost 800 PA now. This is a guy who for 2014-19 had a 316 BABIP. Very strange.

Not like we haven't seen this sort of thing before though. Tony Batista had 26 HR and a 73 OPS+ and 32 HR and a 81. Tony Armas hit 36 (and 107 RBI) with a 85 OPS+ in 1983. Kingman hit 35 with a 90 OPS+ in his last season.
   9. TomH Posted: September 28, 2021 at 02:56 PM (#6042152)
"I guess the AL East/second wild card is the only drama we have left."
au contraire

- anything dealing with the Yankees is drama (go JAYS!!!)
- The Dodgers/Giants division title fight is a big thing. LA or SF could tie or break the record for most wins by a team that did not win its division (current record is 104; 1909 Cubs and 1942 Dodgers)
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6042154)
I guess the AL East/second wild card is the only drama we have left.
Aside from the NL West, where the 1st Wildcard consolation prize lessens the drama a bit. I believe a 5-way AL East Wildcard tie is still theoretically possible, although highly unlikely since it would require the Yankees & Red Sox to both play quite poorly to allow all the others to catch up. A three-way tie, or two-way tie for the 2nd Wildcard, seems more plausible.

Would MLB keep the AL Wildcard scheduled for Tuesday if there is a Monday playoff for the 2nd Wildcard? Might be interesting if that game goes 15 innings or has a two-hour rain delay.
   11. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6042163)
Aside from the NL West, where the 1st Wildcard consolation prize lessens the drama a bit.

I would say there's quite a bit of drama in fighting for a bye to bypass the one-game play-in for the NLDS.
   12. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 04:12 PM (#6042164)
One of those teams is going be complaining about winning over 100 games and getting knocked out in a one-game play-in by a more-lucky-than-good Cardinals team with a record a dozen games worse.
   13. The Mighty Quintana Posted: September 28, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6042180)
Jose Ramirez really is amazing. In addition to his more obvious contributions, he's an 82% career base stealer. And he's like 5'8" 220...
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 28, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6042183)
[12] I'm on the record as hating the second wild card from the very beginning for this potential, long before it was clear the Dodgers would specifically be the victim. Though I suppose proponents of the second wild card will say that it was a great thing this year because it kept the NL West race more interesting and kept the Cardinals, Reds and Padres seasons alive a lot longer than they would have been otherwise.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6042190)
Just because of convergence, Adam Wainwright is going for win number 17 as the Cardinals team is going for their 17th in a row.
   16. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 06:15 PM (#6042194)
Adam Wainwright is going for win number 17

He was pretty shaky last time out, also against the Crew. In fact, over his last four starts, his hits are up, walks are up, homers are up, and strikeouts are down compared to his season averages. He may be running out of gas.
   17. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2021 at 06:55 PM (#6042196)
Thor makes his 2021 debut for the Mets in 20 minutes; with any luck MLB Network will cut into that nationally.

just an inning or two, presumably - and no sliders, he says.
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 07:20 PM (#6042199)
Big Yankees @ Toronto series starting tonight, which could turn on whether the Rally Turtle is allowed into Canada.
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2021 at 07:26 PM (#6042200)
Syndergaard with a K, a K, and a ground out in his inning.

first pitch, 96 mph.

GMs, get your checkbooks ready...
   20. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6042202)
Syndergaard with a K, a K, and a ground out in his inning.

I like how the first batter after he exits hits a home run
   21. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6042206)
.. and on the first pitch!

200 IP in 2021 entering Tuesday:

Wheeler PHI 208
Wainwright STL 201
Alcantara MIA 201

Buehler LAD 196
RRay TOR 188
Berrios TOR 186
Gausman SFG 185
LCastillo CIN 182
Montas OAK 181
Marquez COL 180

looks like only 4 will get to 200 - all of them in the NL

then SEVENTEEN pitchers at 170 to 179 IP - that's the sweet spot

   22. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6042207)
ALL RISE! Aaron Judge gavels a HR to RF, tying the game 1-1 in 3rd.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:11 PM (#6042209)
I love the Cardinal's baby blue uniforms (which they aren't wearing tonight) but I also love the uniform that the Brewers are sporting tonight. (most notably the batting helmet)
   24. Snowboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:15 PM (#6042210)
Jameson Taillon leaves the mound for the Yankees in the third, tied 1-1. Limping after making a pitch. Ankle/foot injury.
   25. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:27 PM (#6042212)
Eric Fisher
@EricFisherSBG
Rays owner Stu Sternberg says on club's pregame radio show that they will now not hang the sign at the Trop promoting the split-season Montreal plan, and says he made "a big mistake" looking to promote concept right now.
8:03 PM · Sep 28, 2021

Eric Fisher
@EricFisherSBG
·
22m
Replying to
@EricFisherSBG
That's very different, though, than saying the split-season plan itself was a mistake. Rays are still fully behind that. They just are saying now they whiffed in diverting attention away from club heading into the playoffs.
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:48 PM (#6042213)
I get adrenaline even affects third base coaches, but that was a bad send. Goldy on first, one out, O'Neill hits a ball nearly to the wall and they send Goldy to score, with Arenado on deck... just take the double. Second and third, why risk it? (mind you, Goldy might have actually been safe, but he also might have hurt himself on the play.... either way second and third one out with Arenado up to bat is not a bad thing)
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6042214)
Uggh, 2-0 Brewers, looks like the streak is over.
   28. TomH Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6042215)
team A
.242 team batting avg
563 walks drawn
211 home runs

team B
.239 team batting avg
608 walks drawn
213 home runs

which team has scored more runs?

team A, by... ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY TWO (!!)
   29. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:04 PM (#6042216)
but that was a bad send.

That was terrible---I was shocked in real time to see Goldschmidt rounding third; with one out you go for that when you've *got it*, not when you *might* get it. If the ball bounced around a bit or if Yelich had to chase it and that's one thing, but that wasn't the case here, so they're gambling---unnecessarily--that the fielders can't execute a very doable play. The throw to the catcher wasn't even that good---Narvaez had to stab up and towards the stands and he still had time to bring it down and across home plate to get Goldschmidt.
   30. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:11 PM (#6042217)
I believe a 5-way AL East Wildcard tie is still theoretically possible,


No. It looks like the Red Sox have decided to not win any more games this season....
   31. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:14 PM (#6042218)
I'd love to see a good old fashioned squeeze by Wainwright here
   32. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6042219)
BEAUTIFUL
tie game
   33. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:19 PM (#6042221)
Birds have tagged a couple long flies off of Woodruff, wouldn't be surprised if one goes out at some point.

Good game so far, Cardinals would probably be leading if it weren't for that horrible send in the 3rd.
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6042222)
Good game so far, Cardinals would probably be leading if it weren't for that horrible send in the 3rd.


You are stealing my thoughts, you must be using the covid vaccine which is designed to create a hive mind.
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:23 PM (#6042223)
Waino may not be pitching great, but he's pitching solid, 76 pitches in the fifth, isn't great, but it's still 7 inning doable... giving him and the team a chance to get him another win.
   36. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:32 PM (#6042225)
Now THAT'S one you send Goldie on!

I think if the ball hadn't gotten by Garcia, Goldschmidt would have been held at third. As he should have been.
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:32 PM (#6042226)
4-2 Cardinals now... Speed kills.
   38. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:35 PM (#6042227)
Red Sox have managed a whopping 3 hits(2 hr) against the worst staff in MLB(by a long way) in 8 innings thus far. The Red Sox are not a playoff team in spite of the nice start.
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:35 PM (#6042228)
Cardinal announcers giving props to Wong as he deserves it.
   40. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6042229)
I believe a 5-way AL Wildcard tie is still theoretically possible,
No. It looks like the Red Sox have decided to not win any more games this season....
That will disappoint those rooting for chaos, since Boston is involved in most of the ‘more exciting’ scenarios, some of which will likely disappear with tonight’s results. Here’s the odds on various AL Wildcard ties & the process for breaking them. Only a .001% chance of the 5-way tie, but there’s still ~ 21% chance of a two-team tie for the 2nd Wildcard.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:43 PM (#6042230)
One question about those wild card odds, are any of the teams playing head to head still? If so, that will distort a bit of the result, if it's all just about them on their own, it becomes a real possibility.
   42. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:49 PM (#6042231)
Reading the article more, I see the Yanks play the Blue Jays, nobody else plays anyone that they are competing against with six games to go. The fact that only one series exists in which the teams play against a direct competitor, does make it very interesting. Ultimately the Yanks control their destiny, the Blue Jays control the Yanks destiny. (if the Blue Jays sweep the Yanks, and win their other games, they eliminate the Yanks--which doesn't look likely with the current score) After that, both the Red Sox and Mariners are subject to the wills of others.
   43. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6042232)
Wainwright gets through six on 102 pitches, Birds up 4-2. If there was some reason the Cardinals would have needed Wainwright to go out for the seventh, I believe he could, but the pen should have this. Knock on wood.
   44. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:51 PM (#6042233)
That will disappoint those rooting for chaos, since Boston is involved in most of the ‘more exciting’ scenario


Yeah, well, the Red Sox stink. They had Sale on the bump and playing an historically bad team(a couple of guys notwithstanding) and they couldn't get it done tonight. At this stage, NY, Seattle or the Jays deserve the 2 spots.
   45. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:51 PM (#6042234)
Giancarlo Stanton’s 3-run HR gives the Yankees a 6-2 lead, and some breathing room.
   46. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6042235)
Reading the article more, I see the Yanks play the Blue Jays, nobody else plays anyone that they are competing against with six games to go.
No, Oakland & Seattle also play each other, although they are on the periphery of the Wildcard race.
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:56 PM (#6042236)
Nobody considers Oakland a contender for the wild card. The Blue Jays vs Yankees series alone pretty much eliminates the A's from contention.
   48. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:57 PM (#6042237)
Man, more devil magic, Jose Rondon with a pinch homer, I believe his second in the last 5 or so games.

EDIT: Yes, he had a 2-run pinch homer in the first game of last Friday's doubleheader with the Cubs.
   49. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 28, 2021 at 09:59 PM (#6042238)
Nobody considers Oakland a contender for the wild card. The Blue Jays vs Yankees series alone pretty much eliminates the A's from contention.

True, but they are a better team than Seattle.
   50. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:02 PM (#6042239)
I love me some devil magic, at least a third of the time (as it only applies to events that happen for the Yankees, Cardinals or Dodgers)
   51. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:03 PM (#6042240)
Yeah, well, the Red Sox stink. They had Sale on the bump and playing an historically bad team(a couple of guys notwithstanding) and they couldn't get it done tonight.
Only 8,098 at Camden Yards for that game, which is pretty sad.
   52. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:04 PM (#6042241)
True, but they are a better team than Seattle.


Maybe. I never trust the A's, I generally think their record is actually better than their team, so them being on the other side of the equation is a weird oddity.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:08 PM (#6042242)
I mean if you look at pyth, the A's are a better team than the Cardinals, and I'm looking at their roster and I'm hard pressed to find even one player at any position I would take over the Cardinal current player. (I mean the A's are a 85 win team, the Cardinals are an 82 win team, and there is literally not one single player on the A's I would take over the equivalent Cardinal)

Edit: Okay I love Bader, but I also love Marte... So there is one. (history helps there)
   54. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:11 PM (#6042244)
there is literally not one single player on the A's I would take over the equivalent Cardinal)

You wouldn't take Sean Murphy over Yadier Molina? Really?
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:12 PM (#6042246)
You wouldn't take Sean Murphy over Yadier Molina? Really?


Nope. Not even a debate there. Their relative minor difference in offense.... Yadier in 988 innings this year, the other team has 25 steals and 18 caught... Sean has caught 907 innings has allowed 41 steals with 13 caught... without even knowing anything else about them, the better catcher is Yadier. 98 ops+ vs 87 is miniscule compared to that level of defense. (and I get that the bwar is 2.7 vs 1.9 but I've longed argue war doesn't remotely capture the real value of a catcher, and it's not a relative argument, it's an argument about who is actually good vs not so much)
   56. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:21 PM (#6042247)
Waino is 4 outs away from his 17th win.
   57. Mike A Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6042248)
Switched to Gamecast to 'watch' the 9th of the Braves/Phillies when I saw Will Smith coming in with a 2-run lead. That was the right move.

But somehow, someway, the Braves hang on for the 2-1 victory and the magic number is down to three.
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:30 PM (#6042250)
I'm pretty much confident that the NL races are over, except the NL West division. Which has actually become the most interesting race in baseball, both teams are locked to make the playoffs of course, both teams are locked to being the two bet teams in baseball, yet one is going to be stuck with a one game playoff against a team that has won something like a lot of games in a row. They know they are the better team of course, but it's baseball, one game series is just utter bs for a team with 100 wins.


   59. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:32 PM (#6042251)
Cardinals have 50 homeruns in the month of September... Franchise record for a month is 55. (April of 2000) if you are able to make a bet on the over on that now, you might want to do it. I'm fairly certain the Cardinals are going to lose tomorrow after a celebration tonight... but 5 homeruns in 6 games is pretty much a foregone conclusion.
   60. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:34 PM (#6042252)
This is how serious the Cardinals are taking this game, Cardinals are up 6-2, non-save situation.... they bring in their closer for this inning.
   61. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:35 PM (#6042254)
And he promptly gives up a single....
   62. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:38 PM (#6042255)
Smith allowed I think 4 straight batted balls at 99+ mph "exit velo." in other words, he had nothing and went 3-0 on slumping Galvis before whiffing him.

announcers lauding Snitker for sticking with Smith as closer "because he gets the job done."

um.......

meanwhile, if I'm a higher-up Cubs exec, I'm wondering how the Mets - not exactly known for being strategic pioneers - needed about 5 minutes to turn Baez away from his lifelong "swing at every ####### pitch" mentality and start drawing walks right away. he had another 4-pitch one tonight. did that ever happen in all those years in Chicago?

this year he walked 15 times in 335 AB for Cubs - and 13 for 154 AB so far for Mets.

his Ks? 131 for Cubs, and 48 so far for Mets. 10 to 1 ratio, horrible. 3 to 1 ratio, we're getting somewhere.

the Ks remain high and he hasn't quite shaken off the stupid play here and there, but he has power and great defense and great baserunning instincts (mostly, and helped win the nightcap with that tonight), so with even a so-so K/BB rate he'd be a big asset.

he might have earned himself a lot of money in a short amount of time with this "new Javy."

..............

"This is how serious the Cardinals are taking this game"

doesn't this win clinch a playoff spot? I guess they could have been the first team in MLB history to mail it in on the night that they can do that, but...
   63. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:40 PM (#6042256)
17 in a row, 17 wins for Waino, Cardinals clinched the second wild card spot.... What a freaking season. Both in a good and an iffy way. I fully expected to compete for the division, and the Brewers just dominated, then we even struggled for competition... then we started to make history.

Everything beyond this is cherry on top of the cake, but want it.
   64. salvomania Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6042257)
Good lord, Cardinals clinch a Wild Card bid with their seventeenth straight win.

They beat Woodruff twice in a week.
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:46 PM (#6042258)
The thing I always find funny is Cardinal fans who manage to find negativity with this organization. The expectations of some fans is so absurd that it's silly. The real goal of ANY team is to be competitive enough to have a chance to make the post season, if you do it 50% of the time in any sport, that should be considered successful... the fact that we have fans who think a 75% rate of making the post season, is an indication the franchise isn't trying, is hilariously out of touch with reality (you have to assume they vote red.)
   66. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6042264)
That is probably the last regular season appearance for Waino as they'll save him for the wild card game... 40 year old pitcher 17-7 record, 3.05 era (he got killed on his last start) second in the league in innings pitched, will probably finish 4th overall there... not the Cy Young winner of course, but does he end up getting even one vote? Well he's not top ten by bWar or fWar so the advance stat voters aren't going to give it to him, he's going to finish 2nd in wins, 10th(or so) in era, 3rd in innings pitched, 1st in complete games (tied and it's such a low number that nobody is going to care)

With five votes per voter he might get a fourth or fifth place vote.... he needed a strong September (just like pretty much everyone) but I'm fairly certain the vote is going to go Scherzer, Wheeler, Woodruff, Buehler with Burnes sucking up most of the rest. (Wheeler has the war, but it's close enough with Scherzer and the two teams thing, that the wins will separate them)
   67. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 28, 2021 at 11:23 PM (#6042268)
both teams are locked to being the two bet teams in baseball, yet one is going to be stuck with a one game playoff against a team that has won something like a lot of games in a row. They know they are the better team of course, but it's baseball, one game series is just utter bs for a team with 100 wins.
This situation has promoted various reform proposals, such as if there is a wide enough gap between the teams’ records, the lesser team would have to win two games in a row, or start out trailing by a certain number of runs.

I personally favor keeping it at a one-game playoff, but requiring the lesser team to take doses of a strong laxative a few hours before game time. Make it literally a matter of intestinal fortitude.
   68. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 11:31 PM (#6042269)
Just go three games, give a real rest to the clinchers
   69. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2021 at 11:33 PM (#6042270)
Since August 1st, Cardinals are 3rd in w/l in the nl, first in runs scored ; top 3 in runs allowed, people who say they aren't a good team haven't been paying attention. They effectively lost 4/5ths of their projected rotation for the season and had to respond to that.
   70. stanmvp48 Posted: September 28, 2021 at 11:38 PM (#6042271)
#28. I think you are talking about Tampa Bay and NY. The only thing I noticed is the GIDP discrepancy. 68 vs 150. Fewest vs. most in the league by a large margin. I think the 68 figure might be historically low
   71. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 29, 2021 at 01:46 AM (#6042281)
No, Oakland & Seattle also play each other, although they are on the periphery of the Wildcard race.


Yankees 90-67 +2.0
Red Sox 88-69 --
Mariners 88-70 -0.5
Blue Jays 87-70 -1.0

I think the M's are a bit more than "on the periphery". They're right in the middle of it.
   72. vortex of dissipation Posted: September 29, 2021 at 02:01 AM (#6042282)
This situation has promoted various reform proposals, such as if there is a wide enough gap between the teams’ records, the lesser team would have to win two games in a row, or start out trailing by a certain number of runs.


NPB uses a bit of that logic to decide the league representatives in the Japan Series. To quote wiki: "The First Stage is a best-of-three series involving the regular season's second- and third-place finishers, with all games played at the second-place team's home field. The winner of this series goes on to face the league's pennant-winner in the Final Stage. The Final Stage series is best-of-seven. The league champion is awarded a one-win advantage as well as home field advantage for the entire series".
   73. AndrewJ Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:31 AM (#6042296)
NPB uses a bit of that logic to decide the league representatives in the Japan Series. To quote wiki: "The First Stage is a best-of-three series involving the regular season's second- and third-place finishers, with all games played at the second-place team's home field. The winner of this series goes on to face the league's pennant-winner in the Final Stage. The Final Stage series is best-of-seven. The league champion is awarded a one-win advantage as well as home field advantage for the entire series".

Me like.
   74. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:49 AM (#6042299)
Nope. Not even a debate there. Their relative minor difference in offense.... Yadier in 988 innings this year, the other team has 25 steals and 18 caught... Sean has caught 907 innings has allowed 41 steals with 13 caught... without even knowing anything else about them, the better catcher is Yadier. 98 ops+ vs 87 is miniscule compared to that level of defense. (and I get that the bwar is 2.7 vs 1.9 but I've longed argue war doesn't remotely capture the real value of a catcher, and it's not a relative argument, it's an argument about who is actually good vs not so much)

OK, this is silly. It's 100 wRC+ vs 85. Per FG, Murphy is 9 runs better with the bat, almost 4 runs better on the bases, and 12 runs better with the glove. Per BRef he's 7 runs better with the bat, 4 runs better on the bases, and 1 run worse on D. So, if you ignore framing, Murphy's a win better; include it, and he's 2.5 wins better. SBs are a triviality in modern MLB.
   75. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:57 AM (#6042301)
OK, this is silly. It's 100 wRC+ vs 85. Per FG, Murphy is 9 runs better with the bat, almost 4 runs better on the bases, and 12 runs better with the glove. Per BRef he's 7 runs better with the bat, 4 runs better on the bases, and 1 run worse on D. So, if you ignore framing, Murphy's a win better; include it, and he's 2.5 wins better. SBs are a triviality in modern MLB.


85 vs 100 isn't really a huge difference to be honest, game calling is ignored completely by every metric out there, and it might be a triviality, but it's still 16 singles that were turned into doubles, because of Sean, and it's 5 singles more turned into outs by Yadier. The only reason that Yadier is "so bad in comparison by rbat or whatever" is because the Cardinals manager is a ####### idiot and batting him 5th instead of 7th where he belongs, so he's getting 34 or so extra plate appearances as a negative hitter than he should be.

If Yadier is batting 7th or 8th where he belongs his overall offensive profile drops probably around .2-.3, thereby improving his cumulative war the corresponding amount.

But yes, I'll give it to the 26 year old, it's closer than it looks, but Murphy is probably better right now than Yadier overall.

I overstated my original quick look opinion.
   76. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 10:07 AM (#6042308)
Since Aug. 1 the Cards’ 35-17 record is No. 3 in the majors behind the Dodgers (37-13) and Giants (37-15.)
   77. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 29, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6042315)
NPB uses a bit of that logic to decide the league representatives in the Japan Series. To quote wiki: "The First Stage is a best-of-three series involving the regular season's second- and third-place finishers, with all games played at the second-place team's home field. The winner of this series goes on to face the league's pennant-winner in the Final Stage. The Final Stage series is best-of-seven. The league champion is awarded a one-win advantage as well as home field advantage for the entire series".
That's OK, but I still prefer the laxative proposal.
   78. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 29, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6042339)
I think the M's are a bit more than "on the periphery". They're right in the middle of it.

And since their games end 3 hours later than their WC rivals, they have the added advantage of being able to play to the score.#JackMorris
   79. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 29, 2021 at 01:05 PM (#6042347)
And since their games end 3 hours later than their WC rivals,
Not true. Their rivals are the Yankees and Red Sox.
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6042368)
Not true. Their rivals are the Yankees and Red Sox.


At first I thought you didn't get the comment and was going to point out that you missed the point; it took me a few seconds to get your joke, hilarious.
   81. Walt Davis Posted: September 29, 2021 at 05:40 PM (#6042418)
Royals extend Michael A Taylor for 2/$9 ... at that price, hard to go wrong.

#62 (on Baez's walk rate): It is interesting but don't get too excited. You'll notice he needed this "hot streak" to pull his seasonal walk rate up to 5.2% ... right in line with his career 4.8% and what he did in 2019 (and a bit worse than 2017). Even looking at his career splits -- and this is a weird one to look at -- in July his walk rate is 1 per 31 PA while in Sept it's 1 per 15.5 PA. In Sept of his rookie year, he actually walked 11 times in 113 PA. In April this year, it was just 1 BB in 94 PA so after that, for the Cubs, he had 14 BB in 267 PA, right around his career 5% rate.

My point isn't that he does something special in Sept (although this wouldn't shock me either) but that, like every player, his stats have variation. For now this is just a good run of 173 PA that's similar to other good extended runs he's had (possibly this is the longest such run). He was atrocious even by Javy standards in April, he was his regular self from May through Aug, he's walking a lot in Sept.

And don't be fooled by "yeah but he's taking all these close pitches for balls now." He's always done that too. I know it makes no sense -- how could a guy swing at a pitch literally a foot outside then take one an inch off the plate but, it seems especially in big situations, he has always done that. It's probably more a fastball vs breaking ball thing.
   82. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 29, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#6042425)
Royals extend Michael A Taylor for 2/$9 ... at that price, hard to go wrong.


True, but you'd have to ask why? Shouldn't a rebuilding team be playing someone younger? He's a great glove and all, but I think I'd rather give the PAs to someone I don't yet know is an 80 OPS+ hitter.

I guess if the Royals have no CF prospects, he helps the pitching.
   83. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: September 29, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6042430)
At first I thought you didn't get the comment and was going to point out that you missed the point; it took me a few seconds to get your joke, hilarious.


"Hilaripus," please. We have traditions to uphold ... though it's handstakingly obvious that some of us just aren't up to the challenge.
   84. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 29, 2021 at 06:24 PM (#6042431)
Nolan Arenado says he won't opt out of his contract, plans to come back to the Cardinals next year.

   85. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6042436)
Nolan Arenado says he won't opt out of his contract, plans to come back to the Cardinals next year.


As if that was ever going to happen. With the 2022 opt out option, there was no reason he was going to opt out.
   86. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6042444)
True, but you'd have to ask why? Shouldn't a rebuilding team be playing someone younger? He's a great glove and all, but I think I'd rather give the PAs to someone I don't yet know is an 80 OPS+ hitter.


Because you need some stability at a few positions for a rebuilding team. They have a pretty good catcher, second baseman, shortstop and left fielder for at least another season, at the cost of Taylor he isn't blocking anybody, but he provides stability and defense. I don't know jack about their minors, but anyone that they bring up or acquire still has a spot to play, and it's not depressing when you have at least four league average players on the roster that you can count on.
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6042445)
For those that were wondering if the Cardinals, after clinching, was going to waste effort to try to continue the streak... today's lineup doesn't have Arenado(Carpenter), O'Neil(Nootbar), Edman(Rondon), and Molina (who might still be injured/sore)
   88. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 29, 2021 at 07:57 PM (#6042446)
I mean if you look at pyth, the A's are a better team than the Cardinals, and I'm looking at their roster and I'm hard pressed to find even one player at any position I would take over the Cardinal current player.


"But look who’s batting fourth! Jim Pagliaroni and Mickey Mantle. Now who the hell is Pagliaroni?”
   89. Howie Menckel Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:08 PM (#6042447)
AL WILDCARDS
NYY 90-67 +2 at TOR
BOS 88-69 -- at BAL

SEA 88-70 0.5 vs OAK
TOR 87-70 1 vs NYY

NL WEST
SFG 103-54 -- vs ARI
LAD 101-56 2 vs SDP

   90. Snowboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:09 PM (#6042448)
For Toronto, Marcus Semien knocks himself home for RBI #100. His 44th HR breaks the MLB record for a second baseman.
Bo Bichette also knocks himself home for RBI #100, his 27th HR of the year.
4-0 TOR thru 3 vs Gerrit Cole.
   91. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:16 PM (#6042451)
Dear Red Sox,

You are playing a team that has an ERA of nearly 6....please score some runs.

A fan.
   92. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6042455)
Red Sox with 2 on, none out in the 6th. They've done this twice already today, hitting into DP's both times and then not scoring. Now would be a good time for them to get this season back on track.
   93. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6042456)
Thank effing christ, a 2 run double...Sox get some runs!
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: September 29, 2021 at 08:56 PM (#6042458)
Bader probably should have taken the game off, by Wpa he has to be having nearly the worst game imaginable.
   95. Howie Menckel Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:10 PM (#6042460)
sometimes I flip to Fox Sports Channel or Network or whatever they call it, to see if they have an MLB game. I think they had one last night.

this one is Congress - Republicans vs Democrats.

reminiscent of BBTF softball, except for the high score - 11-10 in the 5th.
just had a play where a runner tries to score with no outs and he's out by about 30 feet. oof.

possibly just House members - I hadn't heard of any of the combatants, until Linda Sanchez of CA just came up to pinch-hit. she "singles" and is replaced by a pinch runner who immediately swipes second.

so second and third, one out, runner tries to steal third and - oh, crap, there's someone there. that's an out, lolz
   96. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6042461)
The Phillies seem content to fade into oblivion by not scoring runs. 2 runs in the last 23 innings.

Odubel Herrera hits the ball hard — he decides to flip his bat; secure his helmet, watch the ball, then starts running. It took a funny carom off the wall; he probably could have made third. I’m tired of his show boating. He always watches the ball instead of running. He only has 13 HRs — Odubel, it’s not going out, RUN.
   97. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6042464)
And in the bottom of the inning, he fails to cleanly field an easy single that allows both runners to advance. By WAR (13.5), he’s one of the better rule 5ers but he ain’t worth it.
   98. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:41 PM (#6042465)
this one is Congress - Republicans vs Democrats.


Are the Republicans making it super hard to get to the bases whilst the Democrats are complaining that even if you strike out, you should get a free pass because that's best for everyone?
   99. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:43 PM (#6042466)
Miracles never cease. Red Sox have had 2+ runners on base in like 5 innings so far and for the 2nd! time have actually capitalised.
   100. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 29, 2021 at 09:44 PM (#6042467)
Of course they ran themselves out of potentially more chances. But hey, up 5-0 against the O's. Surely....SURELY, they'll win this game.
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