Finding a Fit for Jackie Bradley Jr.

While it’s certainly a good thing to enter free agency on a high note like that, Bradley has a multitude of problems working against him. The most obvious one is the sample size of his recent success. Teams are similarly wary of spending on a player who had a a better-than-expected 2020 after a mediocre ’19 as they are when it comes to a player like Odorizzi, who missed most of the shortened follow-up to a strong campaign.

Beyond that, Bradley’s actual production was well ahead of what his quality of contacts suggest. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity was just 0.1 mph better than his career low from 2017 and placed in the 40th percentile, and both his career-low 36.1% hard hit rate (34th percentile) and 7.6% barrel rate (47th percentile) were below average as well. The gap between his actual stats and his expected ones (.230 xAVG, .376 xSLG) was massive. He hit the ball on the ground with more frequency than ever before, setting career extremes with his 53.1% groundball rate and his 4.4 degree average launch angle; among batters who saw at least 500 pitches last year, the 48-point gap between his .347 wOBA and .299 xwOBA placed him in the 97th percentile. In other words, the slash line he put up isn’t sustainable without much stronger contact.

Bradley’s second major problem is that his defense, while still chockfull of spectacular plays, isn’t what it used to be