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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 12, 2011Finn: Q&A with MLB Network’s Brian KennyI haven’t been this riveted to a TV show since Roy Thinnes got a severe pinky cramp and had to hide it during a whole The Invaders episode!
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Posted: December 12, 2011 at 09:01 PM | 19 comment(s)
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1. Rally Posted: December 12, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#4014405)Not to dispute that, but if true it means Rickey! is three Hall of Famers.
I think Bill James said something very close to this on Kenny's show- (paraphrasing) "Tim Raines problem is that he was the same type of player as Ricky Henderson. And half of Ricky is still a hall-of-famer."
I dispute that.
With Rickey it's sort of plausible. Not with Raines.
It is quite something, isn't it? I'm not used to it yet, and probably won't ever be in case you were wondering when that feeling would subside.
My kids have heard of me.
Glad to hear you've gotten out of your mother's basement to do some parenting.
FTA:
That's a great answer. Kenny really is a great ambassador for those open to learning about sabermetrics.
I have been a big stats guy since the 90s and I don't really know the methodology or computations of many of the stats I follow. I guess I know generally that WAR incorporates things like defense and baserunning, but I don't know its computed or anything like that. I don't see that necessarily as a prerequisite for understand those stats - in fact I think the appeal of WAR is its simplicity as a stat and what it represents. I've never understood the resistance by fans and writers that don't like stats because they don't know how to compute them. So what? I bet they don't know how to compute Quarterback Rating or BCS Standings either, yet those get used.
And it's a viewpoint I understand. I'm an engineer at heart and I want to know how EVERYTHING works. I've learned to use WAR (and others), but at one level it does bother me that I haven't taken the time to figure out how it's computed. It almost feels like faith.
This is the one complaint I have about the excerpt above, particular w/r/t this part: "Try not to get caught up in what goes into the number, just look at what the numbers are telling us." To me, the best way to foster a better understanding of the advanced metrics is to talk about what makes them up (in broad strokes). If you get a fan who swears by traditional stats to just talk through indisputable facts -- (i) positional/replacement value -- a shortstop hitting .280/.350/.450 is a stud, a first baseman doing that is closer to part of the problem than part of the solution, (ii) the value of defense and baserunning, and that mathematicians estimate that good performances by a player in either can add a win a season, bad performance in either deduct a win a season, (iii) a walk is not as good as a hit, but it's closer to a hit than an out, and (iv) ballpark and era adjustments -- that gets you like 90% of the way to being what is generally considered a sabermetric savvy fan. That should get that fan 90% of the way to understanding WAR. And it's much more persuasive than just saying, Player A had 7.5 WAR and Player B had 6.0 WAR, QED.
And to combine threads, this is kind of the problem I have with the Raines' HoF movement. For guys like Blyleven, Santo, Grich, etc., you don't need to reverse engineer the numbers, you just have to realize what generally goes into them, and that leads you to understand how these players would fit in the HoF. Raines is so distinct because so much of his value is in stolen bases and not getting caught. I struggle to try to apply that when determining his value and comparing him to his peers and other HoFers or HoVGers, and it's just not very satisfying to have someone say, "Look at WAR or wRC+ ... this guy was two HoFers!"
That's actually an incredibly good point. I hadn't thought of that, but you're right: I'm skeptical of WAR, mostly because I can't calculate it, and that's not a bad thing.
If they haven't done this yet, they might consider an occasional "primer" segment where they explain some saber concepts.
But for the most part it's like anything that gains acceptance in the sabrmetrics world. It's a real safe bet that somebody who knows what they're doing has run a sanity check.
And I would argue that WAR doesn't pass a sanity check for defense. I don't really need to "know what I'm doing" - I just need to compare WAR's defense numbers to those of other accepted defensive metrics. Honestly, these systems are in conflict with each other too often for me to have much faith in them, and, consequently, in WAR.
I use WAR as a blunt tool. If b-r had VORP and was sortable for it, I'd use VORP instead of WAR in many cases.
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