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Friday, October 01, 2021

Fit to be tied? AL Wild Card chaos abounds

Example: Yankees go 0-3; Red Sox go 2-1, Mariners go 2-1, Blue Jays go 3-0

What happens next: The above scenario is the only possible four-way tie, and it means all four teams finish with 91 wins (which is Toronto’s win ceiling). Each team would choose or receive an A, B, C or D designation. The club with the highest winning percentage in games among the tied clubs chooses first, second-highest chooses second, etc. In this scenario, the Red Sox (24-21 against the others) get first choice, the Blue Jays (22-22) choose second, the Yankees (22-23) choose third and the Mariners (15-17) get the leftover spot.

On Monday, Club A (likely the Red Sox) would host Club B, and Club C (likely the Blue Jays) would host Club D. So for the Yankees, it would come down to a choice of traveling to either Boston or Toronto.

The winners of those two games on Monday would face each other Tuesday in the AL Wild Card Game.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 01, 2021 at 10:13 AM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, mariners, red sox, yankees

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   1. Paul d mobile Posted: October 01, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6042776)
It's just going to be Yankees - Red Sox again, isn't it?

Sigh.
   2. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: October 01, 2021 at 10:48 AM (#6042778)
We can only hope for a 4-way tie. More baseball more better
   3. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: October 01, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6042783)
It's just going to be Yankees - Red Sox again, isn't it?


Let's hope.

My prediction is the Sox and Blue Jays play Monday for the right to go to the Bronx. Winner of Monday's game advances to the ALDS and is promptly swept by Tampa. Save yourself the trouble of watching, I have spoken.
   4. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 01, 2021 at 11:42 AM (#6042785)
Wild Card Chaos: The Race for Fifth Place!

hooray.
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 01, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6042787)
Have they said who would televise any AL Wildcard tiebreaker games, other than the regular home & visiting team broadcasts?
   6. winnipegwhip Posted: October 01, 2021 at 03:25 PM (#6042850)
Wild Card Chaos: The Race for Fifth Place!

hooray.


I look forward to going to Opening Day next year when Toronto raises it's "2021 Participation Banner"
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 01, 2021 at 10:54 PM (#6042939)
A close race got closer today, especially if Seattle (now leading 1-0 in 2nd) wins, too. Looking more & more like there will be baseball on Monday, but everything can change a lot by tomorrow night.
   8. Howie Menckel Posted: October 01, 2021 at 11:07 PM (#6042941)
AL WILDCARDS
NYY 91-69 +1 (L)
BOS 90-70 -- (W)

SEA 89-70 -- vs LAA
TOR 89-71 1 (W)

UPDATED "Example: Yankees go 0-2; Red Sox go 1-1, Mariners go 2-1, Blue Jays go 2-0"

   9. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: October 02, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6043022)
Someday, all 30 teams will finish 81-81, and the playoffs will last until Christmas!
   10. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: October 02, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6043145)
I have been anti-WC for years. Am I currently sensing exhaustion and a movement to my side from the baseball public on this, or is that just biases?

It's REALLY evident to anyone who has ever seen a baseball game before that none of these teams should make the playoffs. And that if one got in, got hot, and won the damned thing, it would be a black eye for MLB.
   11. bunyon Posted: October 02, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#6043154)
I don’t know who you’re talking to but I think people are giddy about the chance if a 4 way tie for the al wildcard.

None of the 4 of them would be more of a black eye than the 06 cards, 87 Twins or 97 Marlins were.

I’m generally anti-WC too but, no, the public tide isn’t turning against it and this year’s race is far from the greatest argument against.
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: October 02, 2021 at 10:59 PM (#6043158)
I know of no one who doesn't love this wild-card madness.

I was unhappy about maybe a 83-win team claiming the second wild card in NL and then knocking off a 100+-win team in one game.

but STL won 17 in a row, and now they have won 90 games, so I'm cool with them having a shot.

the only postseason team that hasn't won 90 is the Braves, and they are close and got hot down the stretch with some smart trades and with overcoming brutal injuries like Acuna Jr. and Soroka.

I can't remember a 90+ win team that I thought was crappy.
   13. bunyon Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:15 PM (#6043160)
I’m a Braves fan and think it’s clear they’re going to be the worst postseason team no matter who wins the AL wild card.
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:23 PM (#6043163)
could be, but their INF averages 30 HR apiece and Duvall, Rosario, and Soler are apple-smacking as OF deadline adds, too. plus 3 really good SP.

their bullpen blows and it will destroy them in the end, but it's a good, scrappy team.
   15. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:28 PM (#6043164)
Howie, I would like to introduce you to the 2021 Yankees, who are not able to take a game at home against the Rays, even when the games mean everything. They found a way to lose 8 games to the Orioles, who have won 52 against all opponents this year. That's the Orioles' most wins against anyone.
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:37 PM (#6043165)
here are the 3-way and 4-way wild card scenarios

partly moot if the Mariners blow this lead, but there it is.

if 4-way, Yankees choose to visit Boston or Toronto (and Seattle gets the other one).
overall I'd say Boston - but do they really want to risk that road again? I guess they would.
   17. bunyon Posted: October 02, 2021 at 11:40 PM (#6043166)
The very best baseball teams in history lose 50 some games a year. Teams can’t just win on command. You’re argument isn’t one against the wild card but against short series playoffs in general.

I know Atlanta is good and scrappy. Being the worst playoff team isn’t a bad thing. And they could win it all. Anyone who gets in can.
   18. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:16 AM (#6043175)
partly moot if the Mariners blow this lead, but there it is
A 3-run HR by Jared Walsh gives the Angels a 4-3 lead heading into the bottom of 8th, so things might become less complicated, but I wouldn’t bet real money on it.
   19. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:52 AM (#6043187)
Now we just need one of Boston and ny to lose and one of Seattle and Toronto to win to get Monday baseball.

Still a decent chance at two games before the wild card game. Fun stuff.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:00 AM (#6043189)
Sunday’s game would normally be Patrick Corbin’s turn in the Nationals rotation, but he developed a blister in his last start, so Joan Adon will make his MLB debut. Only 4 scoreless AAA innings, after a 4.97 ERA at A+ & 6.43 ERA at AA this season, but he’s on the 40-man and the potentially better options may not be. Advantage Boston, but you never know.
   21. Howie Menckel Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:20 AM (#6043191)
AL WILDCARDS
NYY. 91-70 -- (L)
BOS 91-70 -- (W)

TOR 90-71 1 (W)
SEA 90-71 1 (W)
   22. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:20 AM (#6043192)
bunyon, I suspect we're closer on this than we think.

Anyone can win a short series! is an argument for keeping the playoffs as small as possible.

The regular season, in my opinion, is a 162-game proof of how good your team is. It's a somewhat different test than are the playoffs.
   23. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:27 AM (#6043194)
the tie break system discussed is another reason why a 3 game WC playoff seems unworkable. Its just too likely that one or both teams will run out of pitching.

Just last night BOS used 6 pitchers and SEA 5, OK so maybe they're still OK. Then you've got must win games today. Then possibly 2 more games on MON/TUE which is bound to use up at least one pitching staff. Then a 3 game WC series which is likely to use up at one or both staffs.

THen they have to go to a 5 game Division series and its likely the WC team is already runnign out of pitching. Those games get ugly. I get the idea you want to be fair and see them play, but everytime you extend the playoffs by more games you run the risk of obliterating someone's pitching and the game becomes ugly.

THe 93 series was like that. I was just watching the 1970 series and Sparky is already out of pitching in game 5, he just kept sending guys to the mound and almost every batter was ripping the ball in one direction or another. It's not really a fun watch.
   24. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2021 at 08:39 AM (#6043198)
It's possible to both find this particular week exciting and still think the expansion of the playoffs is an overall negative.
   25. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#6043202)
Absolutely. And that’s where I am. But the idea that there are lots of folks deciding the wild card is bad seems off to me.

   26. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:25 AM (#6043206)
Anyone can win a short series! is an argument for keeping the playoffs as small as possible.


It's a reason to abolish the post season entirely. We play 162 games to figure out who has the best team, and then we throw it out in a crap shoot. It's insanity.
   27. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6043208)
26: exactly.

The more I watch soccer leagues around the world the more I like it. The long league schedule is based purely on the season’s play. But plenty of tournament style cups to give that single game urgency.

It’s impossible to recreate something as mature as mlb but it would be great if the games tomorrow were to determine if the giants hold on to win the league or if they have to have a playoff with the Dodgers rather than where they get slotted.
   28. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 03, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6043211)
I get the idea you want to be fair and see them play, but everytime you extend the playoffs by more games you run the risk of obliterating someone's pitching and the game becomes ugly.

The answer I often hear for this is "Then win your damn division."

   29. pikepredator Posted: October 03, 2021 at 11:28 AM (#6043214)
I find it intriguing that people are OK with a mediocre Atlanta team making the playoffs because they happen to play in a terrible division and got the beat up on the Nats, but think both the Dodgers and Giants getting in is a travesty. I'd rather see Atlanta play the Cardinals to see who makes the playoffs.

Four fanbases are fired up that their 90-win teams have a chance to get into the playoffs. That's healthy for baseball as a whole. The Giants and Dodgers are still playing with their hair on fire because winning the division has meaning. But the 105+ win team who loses out is given a 2nd chance to make the playoffs. I view that as a positive as well.

There are lots of scenarios I can envision where the WC detracts from the regular season but in my mind, this year both leagues have fantastic examples of the positives of the WC.
   30. villageidiom Posted: October 03, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6043215)
Heyman has reported that in case of a 4-way tie the teams have already chosen their tiebreaker slots. It will be:

BOS chose to be the home team in the tiebreaker that determines the host of the WC
TOR chose to be the home team in the tiebreaker that determines the visitor for the WC
NYY chose to be the visitor in Boston
SEA will be the visitor in Toronto

Complicating things is that both the Yankees and Rays are playing today against Angel Hernandez. You want chaos? You got it.
   31. TomH Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6043219)
Thanks, village!
Two of those three choices were obvious. The third (Yankees) is probably obvious also.

I would rather know how the 3-way-tie choices look. Because that is NOT obvious. Numbers say pick the method that gives you more ways to win, but it's a tough gut call to give up home field.


   32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:11 PM (#6043221)

It's a reason to abolish the post season entirely. We play 162 games to figure out who has the best team, and then we throw it out in a crap shoot. It's insanity.


I do think there should be a "President's Cup" type honor for best regular season. But if we're going to have a post-season, have some chaos. The point of the post-season isn't to figure out the best team, it's to make money, have fun, and create lasting moments.
   33. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6043223)
HFA isn’t worth enough. Even it was 60/40, 40>36 (.6x.6).

And it isn’t 60/40. You take the scenario where you just have to win once and not twice.

Especially given the arguments about gassed pitching.
   34. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6043224)
I do think there should be a "President's Cup" type honor for best regular season. But if we're going to have a post-season, have some chaos. The point of the post-season isn't to figure out the best team, it's to make money, have fun, and create lasting moments.

Hell, if we're going to abolish the postseason because it's "random / unfair", etc., why not just crown the team with the best Pythagorean record as the True and Most Deserving Champion. Winning all those close games is just luck!
   35. Lassus Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6043226)
It's a reason to abolish the post season entirely. We play 162 games to figure out who has the best team, and then we throw it out in a crap shoot. It's insanity.

27. bunyon Posted
26: exactly.


I mean, do you guys hate ALL fun? Like, ice cream and puppies, too? ;-)
   36. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6043228)
Look above, I think this race is great and I love postseason baseball.

Jolly, if you’ll acknowledge that the playoffs are just fun entertainment and stop with the “who the best team is” nonsense I’ll be in complete agreement.

If the cardinals beat the Dodgers on Tuesday it’ll be a very entertaining upset. It won’t say #### all about who the better team is.

If we just want the entertainment of elimination baseball play a 64 team double elimination tournament in July and August. It would be ####### awesome.
   37. Nasty Nate Posted: October 03, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6043231)
It's going to rain all Monday in Boston, complicating the schedule if some extra game is needed.
   38. villageidiom Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6043240)
Two of those three choices were obvious. The third (Yankees) is probably obvious also.
I mean, if they win the tiebreaker they host the WC, which is an obvious plus - and besides, just last week they traveled to Boston and won, so it seems reasonable to think they can break serve again. If they chose to visit Toronto for the tiebreaker instead there'd be a chance they would need to travel to Seattle and play the next day.
   39. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6043243)
It's a reason to abolish the post season entirely. We play 162 games to figure out who has the best team, and then we throw it out in a crap shoot. It's insanity.

You fundamentally misunderstand the point of baseball. They play solely to entertain fans who will give them money. Baseball has no intrinsic value except as entertainment. Figuring out the best team is not a consideration. Having the "best team" lose in the playoffs a lot of the time is good for entertainment.
   40. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: October 03, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6043254)
Hell, if we're going to abolish the postseason because it's "random / unfair", etc., why not just crown the team with the best Pythagorean record as the True and Most Deserving Champion. Winning all those close games is just luck!


Actually, a lot of those "runs" are fictions of luck as well. Best to appoint the season winner whichever team accumulates the most WAA.
   41. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 03:08 PM (#6043256)
the arguments based on "the best team" are rather silly.

For one thing teams change over the course of 6 months. Having the best record over the course of six months doesnt mean you're the best team right now, nor does it mean you were ever the best team at any one pt. in the season. Its all conceptual this: idea of best team over a six month period. What does that even mean?

Also, the simple w/l record doesnt prove anything either. You can have two identical teams in terms of ability and they can differ as much as 6, 8 maybe 10 wins.

So this whole idea of: the best team didnt get the title or didnt get to the WS is a fallacy to start with.

Aside from that stuff there's many reasons to have head to head playoffs:

THere's a need to see who's playing better, right now.

There's a need to see how certain teams match up against others Koufax vs Mantle, Gibson vs Yaz, there's a need to see these match ups.

There's also a need to see how players react to winner take all/do or die situations. THat's part of the drama and something that's worth seeing played out in front of us.

There's also a difference between managing by the percentages on a day by day basis and playing a winner take all game. Its a different analysis. How many times we've seen a manager save his closer and lose the game before it even gets to that pt? Or the one who closes the barn door after the horses have left?

I want to see decision making in a winner take all series. I would make the analogy to the difference between pot limit poker and no limit poker, but given what I've read above, I don't think most would understand

   42. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6043258)
I probably do misunderstand baseball. But I know I watch way, way less regular season ball than I did when fewer teams made the postseason. Some of that is just life. Some is because those games, most of them, just don’t matter.

Today will be great and fun. Not arguing that. But it’ll mean not much for arguing about who the best team is, which is, historically, part of the entertainment.
   43. BDC Posted: October 03, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6043259)
The good thing about the current MLB playoff system is that there is a lot of playoff baseball. This is also the bad thing. It applies to every US team sport, though. Crucial games are very exciting, and when a string of them goes on for a month or more, they become less exciting as you add more of them. I don't see a way around this. You could go back to 2 or 4 teams making the playoffs instead of 10, but then the last month of the regular season is less exciting bar the infrequent great head-to-head race. What you gain on one side you lose on the other.

Is the MLB system fair? With the addition of the first and especially the second Wild Card, no teams are "screwed" anymore in that they've won a lot more than a division champion but have to stay home. And once you're in, you can win by winning. As RTG says, if you don't like your seeding, you should have won more out of the first 162.

Does the MLB system produce a convincing champion? No, but few sports guarantee that. If a team wins a finals in 7 or even 6 games, the superiority of the champion is not overwhelming. And sometimes when they win the finals in 4 or 5, they got through a conference final or earlier round that came down to a single game. Or an NFL playoff game came down to overtime or to a very narrow win in regulation. Unless you're the 1982-83 76ers and you win the regular season by seven games, then go four-five-four … really, it just comes down to who happens to win the scheduled contest. Some folks will never be happy unless a season is simmed 10,000 times, but that is not a real-life option.

And basically, any current method of choosing a champion in team sports is fine as long as it is not the way they do it in college football.
   44. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6043298)
Depends on your definition of screwed I guess. The giants are going to win their division and 107 games. Their reward is a 5 game series against the team they beat in the division or against a team they finished 15 games ahead of. That’s gotta be bordering on screwed.
   45. BDC Posted: October 03, 2021 at 05:23 PM (#6043314)
The giants are going to win their division and 107 games. Their reward is a 5 game series against the team they beat in the division or against a team they finished 15 games ahead of. That’s gotta be bordering on screwed

I guess, but the 1906 Cubs were 24 games better than the White Sox and had to play them anyway, so that problem has been around for a while :) I respect that you just don't want to have playoffs at all, but playoffs are exciting and upsets are part of the excitement. A better team always has the option of winning.

The appeal of the European system where regular season and tournaments are separate competitions, I certainly get. North Americans seem to like to have it both ways, with a dual competition that arrives at a single result. Even back when the NHL Championship and the Stanley Cup were technically separate competitions, I don't sense there was much enduring interest in who won an NHL Championship.
   46. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6043317)
The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2021 at 01:00 AM (#6043189)
Sunday’s game would normally be Patrick Corbin’s turn in the Nationals rotation, but he developed a blister in his last start, so Joan Adon will make his MLB debut. Only 4 scoreless AAA innings, after a 4.97 ERA at A+ & 6.43 ERA at AA this season, but he’s on the 40-man and the potentially better options may not be. Advantage Boston, but you never know.
Called it, eh?
   47. JJ1986 Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6043332)
You couldn't wait an hour?
   48. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6043344)
Well, Adon exceeded expectations. The Nationals bullpen may be another matter, but you never know.
   49. TJ Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6043345)
At least the Yankee game was not decided by the ghost runner…
   50. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:38 PM (#6043356)
And no chaos. The Yankees and Red Sox ruin everyone's fun. Now I will not be watching the wild card game.
   51. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:39 PM (#6043357)
Double post.
   52. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: October 03, 2021 at 06:59 PM (#6043370)
For one thing teams change over the course of 6 months.


Groups change their parts all the time without changing what group they are. When you have a child, your family gets a new member, but it's the same family. Same thing. A team doesn't exist at any particular time, it exists throughout the course of the season, with different members at different times.

I get it that you guys think that the post season is fun and exciting. I respectfully disagree. The post-season is a gimmick, and it offends me.
   53. BDC Posted: October 03, 2021 at 07:14 PM (#6043379)
The Yankees and Red Sox ruin everyone's fun. Now I will not be watching the wild card game

Heh, the thread could have ended after one post. Of course that does not distinguish it from many another thread :)
   54. Hombre Brotani Posted: October 03, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#6043385)
After all that noise, it's U.S. Steel vs. U.S. Steel.

This is the darkest timeline.
   55. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 03, 2021 at 07:59 PM (#6043393)
After all that noise, it's U.S. Steel vs. U.S. Steel.
Ironically, the Rays are really the modern U.S. Steel, in terms of being run like most large corporations are nowadays. The Red Sox and Yankees are delightful anachronisms.
   56. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 03, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6043408)
The post-season is a gimmick, and it offends me.


as opposed to: what? The regular season.

So a 100 win team is "better" in your mind than a 97 win team? That's some unassailable ideal?
   57. bunyon Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:38 PM (#6043421)
No but a 107 win team is better than a 90 win team.

Again, I LOVE the playoffs. But it doesn’t determine a “better” team. Maybe the regular season doesn’t either. Maybe all you can determine is the winner.
   58. SoSH U at work Posted: October 03, 2021 at 09:49 PM (#6043430)
After all that noise, it's U.S. Steel vs. U.S. Steel.


Ironically, the Rays are really the modern U.S. Steel, in terms of being run like most large corporations are nowadays. The Red Sox and Yankees are delightful anachronisms.

It's only been the last few years when U.S. Steel decided to run itself like the Rays.

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