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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, March 26, 2023Forecasting Aaron Nola’s free-agent payday as contract talks with Phillies break off
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: March 26, 2023 at 04:51 PM | 15 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: March 26, 2023 at 05:36 PM (#6121392)In short, I might need to read the article. Nola should project quite well I'd think. His peripherals put him around Darvish except Nola is 6 years younger and Darvish just got that weird 6/$108 extension that is probably more like a 4/$100 extension spread out for CBT purposes. His durability is better and peripherals at least as good as Rodon who got 6/$162 for 30-35. I wouldn't have thought so before looking at it but somewhere in the 4/$100 to 6/$150 range seems quite plausible. I will assume they were looking for at least 5/$135 which is Rodon money but even if they were pushing for 6/$180 that seems a point from which DD could have negotiated them down to something more reasonable.
Upshot: Nola has been a much better pitcher than I realized. Interestingly, they get there in quite different ways but career bWAR and fWAR are both 29.9
EDIT: Just read the article, don't waste your time, it contains no forecast.
trucksbuddy.com
Nola reached 6 years service time in 2021. The Phils only had him for 2022-23 because they had already extended him past his FA date.
And this is driven in no small part by the signings who give you little to nothing. And Jed Lowrie notwithstanding the free agent disasters skew heavily towards pitchers.
I don't think it's hyperbole to say that maybe 10% of the time a team looks back on a pitcher the let get away and thinks, "Damn if only we'd matched that offer."
I've never compared free agents who re-sign with their team to those who sign elsewhere. Doubt it's interesting but you never know.
A team should be doing everything it can to buy some FA years while they have control of the pitcher but once he hits the market let him go.
There are other considerations.
Without question, there are lots of disaster FA pitcher signings/extensions (Strasburg/Corbin to name two) but equally without question, there are a lot of disastrous seasons by young starters (who are also frequently tearing elbow ligaments and such). So sure, it is commonplace that teams are happy they didn't sign some guy for 6/$150 or more ... but how happy were they to send a collection of 84 ERA+ young guys out there time and time again over those 6 years?
30 teams, 5 rotation slots plus usually at least 2-3 guys to take 30+ starts between them as fill-ins -- there just aren't enough effective young pitchers available for a competing team to turn its back on the expensive FAs.
This is kind of weird, in that it sounds cherry-picked to make Nola appear better than he was (only 7 pitchers threw 200+ innings, so you've eliminated a lot of guys with that criteria). But he was still #4 in the majors in pitching WAR last year, so the cherry picking is unnecessary.
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