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Monday, December 05, 2022

Former Rockies RHP Carlos Estevez agrees to 2-year deal with Angels

Through six seasons and 321 games with the Rockies, right-hander Carlos Estevez always seemed on the verge of being a solid late-game reliever. In the second half of 2022, Estevez finally turned the corner, posting a 1.40 ERA and dominating hitters.

Now he’s cashing in. But not with the Rockies.

Estevez agreed to a two-year, $14 million contract with the Angels Monday, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Late last season, Estevez, 29, had expressed interest in seeing what he could do away from hitter-friendly Coors Field. Now he gets his chance. Estevez’s departure was not unexpected.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 05, 2022 at 10:21 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, carlos estevez

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   1. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6108227)
How is his nickname not "Wild Thing"?
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6108230)
Man, teams are throwing crazy money at RPs with 30 good IPs.
   3. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:24 PM (#6108245)
The Angels will be paying the fungible trio of Loup, Tepera and Estevez 21.5M in 2023. Wouldn't that money be best used on one good player?
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6108273)
On the pitching market, for $22 M, you'll get a good, not great starter who will be a good bet to give you 180 innings, 110-120 ERA+ but probably also a guy you'll have to commit 4 to 6 years to, making it pretty likely there will be at least one year lost to injury. This is Yu Darvish. Yu is about to finish off his 6/$126 contract which stands at 655 IP, 113 ERA+, 12 WAR.

In 2021, the year before he was signed, Loup had 57 innings of a 422 ERA+. (Hold on, I'm getting to consistency, etc.) Estevez had 57 innings of 135; Tepera had 61 of 154. Add that up and it's 175 innings of something way better than a 113 ERA+. And you're only committed for two years. That's the sort of thing you pretty typically see when you look at these reliever contracts -- they make perfect sense within the context of a starter, you're getting 180 innings of a pretty elite ERA+. An elite closer, an elite setup and a good #3 guy will cost you about $30-32 M ... for 180 innings of Max Scherzer.

The rub of course is which relievers you hand these contracts out to and whether you have any right to expect them to perform at that level consistently (or anything close to it). When he signed, Loup was coming off 81 outstanding innings in 2020-21. But that followed a mere 100 innings across 2017-19 with an ERA+ of 112. Still add it all up and over he previous 5 seasons he'd thrown 182 innings at a 151 ERA+. Estevez has been more consistent but never dominant -- 215 IP of 116 ERA+ over the last 4 years. Tepera has been a bit better with 246 IP of 124 ERA+ over the last 5 years. Tepera had a fairly typical year last year, Loup did not meet expectations.

If you took those averages at the time of signing, the three would combine for about 150 innings of 130 ERA+ -- that's worth about $21 M. Actual 2022 was 173 IP of about 117 ERA+. $21 M is still what that would cost you on the SP market. But, since relieving is easier, I'd guess you would usually expect an ERA+ around 170 innings and 130-135 ERA+ for that sort of money but it seems still in the ballpark to me.

Now sure, if it was 1974, you'd sign your SP for $21 M and he'd give you 250 innings of Darvish and one of those relievers which would give you the roster flexibility to add a third catcher! Or at least he would until his agent pointed out he could probably get $28 M for that performance. :-)

For the record, I think some of these reliever contracts do seem based on a fluky 2022 rather than a reliable performance and are therefore silly. These three have been fairly reliable, I'm just not sure their performance level is high enough.

   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6108279)
These three have been fairly reliable, I'm just not sure their performance level is high enough.

Estevez has a FIP and xFIP over for each of the last four years. The only sense in which he's reliable, is that he's reliably not good.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6108321)
Estevez has a FIP over 4 ... PITCHING FOR THE ROCKIES. FIP is not park-adjusted. (Neither is xFIP as far as I know.) His ERA+ is just 108; his FIP+ is 118.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: December 06, 2022 at 05:20 PM (#6108327)
6th on Rockies all-time list in Games Pitched with 324.

only one other in top 10 also is active.

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