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Tuesday, January 10, 2006

FOX: Rosenthal - Coco won’t come at a small price

A double shot of RoboThal.

ALSO: O’s should still listen to offers for Tejada

The Devil Rays tried to acquire right-hander Jae Seo from the Mets for reliever Danys Baez with the intention of flipping Seo to the Dodgers for prospects. Instead, the Mets sent Seo to the Dodgers for reliever Duaner Sanchez, a trade that, at first glance, favors L.A.
...
Remember first baseman Julio Zuleta, who appeared briefly with the Cubs in 2000 and ‘01 and went to spring training with the Red Sox in ‘03? He has hit a combined 80 homers the past two seasons in Japan, and major-league teams are again expressing interest in him, even though he is under contract for one more season with the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks and considering an extension. Zuleta, who turns 31 on March 28, finished second in the Pacific League in all three Triple Crown categories last season.

NTNgod Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:20 AM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. MM1f Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:27 AM (#1813943)
The Robothal article says the Astros were closest to getting Tejada for Lidge, Everett and one of Lane or Tavares
   2. Law Boy Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:44 AM (#1813949)
From the article:

The Yankees are not a significant player for Molina, even though signing him could help them avoid paying Jorge Posada's $12 million option in 2007. Posada's option will vest if he appears in 63 games as a catcher next season. He will be 36 in '07, and imagine how low his on-base/slugging percentage will dip after declining from .923 to .881 to .782 the past three seasons.

The problem with the Yankees signing Molina, aside from payroll considerations, is that Bernie Williams and Jason Giambi figure to receive a significant number of at-bats as designated hitters, and Posada likely would be miserable in a reduced role.


Molina aside, I'm really concerned about Torre giving Bernie way too many ABs at DH at a time when he may be replacement level or worse.
   3. PJ Martinez Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:14 AM (#1813958)
"The Robothal article says the Astros were closest to getting Tejada for Lidge, Everett and one of Lane or Tavares."

Seriously? I haven't read the article, but that sounds like a horrendous trade for the O's. Goodness.

One of my favorite baseball photos was of Zuleta, Ortiz and Manny side by side in spring training of 03. Manny was dwarfed by Ortiz, who was, in turn, dwarfed by Zuleta. Julio is a beast of a man. With a great name to boot.
   4. jwb Posted: January 10, 2006 at 01:16 PM (#1814018)
Zuleta also seemed like a nice and fun guy. I heard a phone interview he did after a game as he was walking home. How cool is that? A Major League Baseball player walking to work?
   5. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:03 PM (#1814037)
Seriously? I haven't read the article, but that sounds like a horrendous trade for the O's. Goodness.

I don't trust anything Rosenthal has to say about the Orioles. He used to be the Orioles beat writer and loves taking potshots at the team (not that they don't deserve it)...e.g., the sarcastic comment about the Astros and Orioles rotations. So while the Astros might have offered that, who knows if that was really the most likely trade.
   6. FredUD Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:12 PM (#1814043)
Lidge, Everett and Lane or Taveras is more than a decent offer...probably too much. Any other owner in baseball likely would have said yes except for Angelos. If you offered him a dime for a nickle he'd tell you he wanted you to throw in a few pennies to even out the deal. The guy is afraid of his own decisions.
   7. Dr. Vaux Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#1814051)
Um, Tejada is worth more runs, I think, than those other three put together. Lidge is a reliever, Everett and Taveras are worthless, at least offensively, and Lane is the type of player a team can pick up for virtually free.
   8. covelli chris p Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:22 PM (#1814056)
Lidge is a reliever,

and a damn good one.

</i>Everett and Taveras are worthless, at least offensively</i>

david ortiz is worthless, at least defensively.
   9. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#1814061)
Lidge, Everett and Lane or Taveras is a really lousy trade for the Orioles. It might be "fair" on some level (esp. given the difference in salaries), but it makes no sense for the Orioles. Lidge is a great closer, but still just a closer. He's unlikely to be that much more valuable than Chris Ray over the next couple years. Jason Lane is the exact same player as Jay Gibbons. Taveras isn't any better than Luis Matos. Everett is ok, but nothing special. Tejada should only be traded for a comparable star (e.g., Abreu) or 2-3 blue chip prospects.
   10. OlePerfesser Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:31 PM (#1814066)
I don't see how that's a potshot at the O's, RP: it seemed like he was reporting an offer the 'Stros made that the O's turned down (though I may be misinterpreting). And, as you say, it'd probably be more worrisome if his coverage of the O's was excessively sunshine-y.

In any case, I don't think I'd describe that proposal as "horrendous" from the O's perspective, PJ. Unless we think Tejada's 10-WARP season of '04 is typical, then giving up his 7.6 '05 WARP for a Lidge (6.2 WARP in '05, at age 28), Everett (3.2 at age 28), and Taveras (4.4 at age 23) is worth thinking about, at least.

Two things I worry about with Miggy: (a) that "vitamin B-12 injection" issue, and (b) the rumors about his actual age > listed age. Going forward, I wonder how realistic it is to expect 7.5+ WARP annually from him.
   11. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:32 PM (#1814067)
I should add that Lidge might make sense if the Orioles were a better team and a great closer would put them over the top. They're not, so it's kind of pointless.
   12. FredUD Posted: January 10, 2006 at 02:59 PM (#1814091)
Lidge, Everett and Lane or Taveras is a really lousy trade for the Orioles. It might be "fair" on some level (esp. given the difference in salaries), but it makes no sense for the Orioles. Lidge is a great closer, but still just a closer. He's unlikely to be that much more valuable than Chris Ray over the next couple years. Jason Lane is the exact same player as Jay Gibbons. Taveras isn't any better than Luis Matos. Everett is ok, but nothing special.

Lidge is much better than you give him credit for RP. He's more than "just a reliever". Tell teams like PHI, ATL, and the NYMN last year, Boston in '03, etc. that closers are "just relievers", especially closers like Lidge, Rivera, and Gagne. Taveras is highly underated. The guy skipped AAA last year and is just 23. Just a guess, but this guy will probably get better. If Lane is chosen, so what if he's another Gibbons...he's a definate upgrade over the blank spot in LF.

Say what you want about Everett, but he's the best SS defensively in the NL. He makes your pitchers better.

All of that just be enough to justify the trade, but then there's the opportunity cost. $30m over the next 3 years would be free'd up for FA. That's a lot of jack to be able to throw around with some really nice FA classes coming in the next 2 years.

I should add that Lidge might make sense if the Orioles were a better team and a great closer would put them over the top. They're not, so it's kind of pointless.

You could say the same about Tejada.
   13. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#1814105)
You could say the same about Tejada.

Right, which is why I think the Orioles should trade him for blue chip prospects.
   14. Gainsay Posted: January 10, 2006 at 03:16 PM (#1814114)
As an O's fan, I wouldn't be upset about that trade. It seems much better than any of the deals where we were getting Abreau or Manny Ramirez. If it does happen, hopefully the O's will turn around and flip Lidge while his value is high because the team really isn't good enough to get much use out of a premium closer.
   15. Danny Posted: January 10, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#1814136)
the rumors about his actual age > listed age. Going forward, I wonder how realistic it is to expect 7.5+ WARP annually from him.


If anything, his career path would suggest he's younger than his stated age.
   16. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 03:33 PM (#1814144)
If it does happen, hopefully the O's will turn around and flip Lidge while his value is high because the team really isn't good enough to get much use out of a premium closer.

That's not a bad idea, but there aren't many contending (or near-contending) teams that need a closer and have prospects. Indians, Cubs, Tigers, ???
   17. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 03:55 PM (#1814190)
Shapiro is playing it smart with Coco. It doesn't hurt to wait for the Sox to panic and give in a true prospect for him.

[Watch Darren come in with a three way offer: Mota to ATL, Langerhans to CLE, Coco to BOS. 'Cause Mota is really great.]

I don't see what's wrong with Lidge, Everett and Lane for Tejada. That's a fair haul. But I'm not an O's fan, so there's that.
   18. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#1814210)
RP, in August, a lot of pretenders will give up the farm for Lidge.

Btw, who in their right mind would give 40m/4yrs to Jeff Weaver?!
   19. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#1814218)
why don't the O's and Astros do the deal, then the O's can flip Lidge to a contender at the trade deadline for prospects or whenever a supposedly contending team starts to spaz b/c their "closer" isn't getting the job done.
If someone offers to pick up most or all of Tejada's salary AND you can get a trade chit in Brad Lidge in return, PLUS a couple of at least average MLB players (defense included here), I think it's a pretty easy choice.
The ChiSox winning it all last year was great for the SABR-savvy teams. If teams try to copy their defense/small ball/speed (although the Sox didn't really have speed) approach, we will, once again, have teams overpay for those types of players. IOW, a guy like Willy Taveras is once again overvalued... again, useful trade bait, for a contender wanting to improve his OF at the deadline.
   20. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#1814225)
RP, in August, a lot of pretenders will give up the farm for Lidge.

Good point. Actually, I also completely forgot about Atlanta. They have a gaping hole at closer and Lidge could make a huge difference for them. I wouldn't mind seeing a three way with Tejada going to the Astros, Lidge going to the Braves, and Everett, Lane and a couple of good Braves prospects going to the Orioles.
   21. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:16 PM (#1814241)
I guess Levski beat me to it while I was writing it.
To further expand, here's my worst case scenario as a suffering Tigers fan assuming the O's and Astros make this deal.

It's late April and the Tigers are off to a decent start in a cramped AL Central. Suddenly and without warning, the Tigers realize that Todd Jones isn't the answer.

"I'll have my people talk to your people"...

April 30th... O's send Brad Lidge and cash to the Tigers for RHP Justin Verlander and RHP Joel Zumaya.

Gee, that's great. At least I can dominate innings 7 thru 9 in MVP baseball 2007..........shyt
   22. RP Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:20 PM (#1814247)
April 30th... O's send Brad Lidge and cash to the Tigers for RHP Justin Verlander and RHP Joel Zumaya.

But Lidge is one of the BEST closers in baseball. Better throw in Shelton too.
   23. ChadBradfordWannabe Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#1814252)
give me Raffy and it's a done deal...I gotta go, I'm getting depressed
   24. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:26 PM (#1814257)
the Tigers realize that Todd Jones isn't the answer.

they can always turn to proven closer Troy Percival, you know.
   25. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:29 PM (#1814264)
CBW, Don't DO that!!!
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:33 PM (#1814274)
The Robothal article says the Astros were closest to getting Tejada for Lidge, Everett and one of Lane or Tavares

But not for Ramirez/Clement? You've got to be shitting me. I mean, they'd be getting salary relief, but still.
   27. Spahn Insane Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:36 PM (#1814284)
That's not a bad idea, but there aren't many contending (or near-contending) teams that need a closer and have prospects. Indians, Cubs, Tigers, ???

There's one thing the Cubs don't need, it's another reliever. (Well, Dempster might crap out, but he's the nominal closer, and the Cubs are committed to him for 3 years.)
   28. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#1814291)
HUGE salary relief.
   29. Answer Guy. Posted: January 10, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#1814333)
Lidge is much better than you give him credit for RP. He's more than "just a reliever". Tell teams like PHI, ATL, and the NYMN last year, Boston in '03, etc. that closers are "just relievers", especially closers like Lidge, Rivera, and Gagne.

If the Orioles were a team like the '05 Braves or '03 Red Sox, giving up a ton for a Brad Lidge might make sense. What additional value Lidge is going to give you over Chris Ray at closer is generally worth far less than what Tejada can give you over and above Adam Everett or whoever else you plug in at SS; however, that closer's innings can be of greatly exaggerated value in a short playoff series or a tight pennant race.

The lack of a top-shelf closer is not what's keeping the Orioles from getting to and winning a playoff series. How do I know this? B.J. Ryan was one, at least last year.
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2006 at 07:35 PM (#1814668)
A Berkman-P.Wilson-Lane outfield? I guess every day is Free Doubles Day at the Juice Box.
   31. Old Matt Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:22 PM (#1814788)
Wait...we picked Duaner Sanchez instead of Danys Baez?
   32. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:28 PM (#1814804)
Gelb, you aren't serious. There are rumors of the Dodgers wanting to trade for Baez as Gagne's setup guy next year, and potentially as their closer should Gagne decide to test free agency. It appears the Rays never wanted Seo, but are interested in some of LAD's prospects. Depending on what LA would give up for Baez, they could look very smart with Seo in the rotation and Baez in a setup role...
   33. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#1814870)
More on the Baez to LA rumor

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/01/baez_to_dodgers.html

"These talks are still preliminary, but I was able to uncover some more info from a source close to the Devil Rays. Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall. The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away."
   34. Kyle S Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#1814933)
Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall. The Dodgers may find Navarro expendable with top prospect Russell Martin perhaps a year away.

Wow. How the mighty have fallen.
   35. 1k5v3L Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:20 PM (#1814940)
Good news for Russell Martin owners...
   36. stubbyc Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:51 PM (#1815015)
But not for Ramirez/Clement? You've got to be shitting me. I mean, they'd be getting salary relief, but still.

How dare those Orioles not take on 2 players who aren't even worth their salaries.

Let's compare

Lidge, Everett, Taveras/Lane, and 25-30 mil or Manny and Clement?
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 10, 2006 at 09:52 PM (#1815016)
Word from that end is that Edwin Jackson and Dioner Navarro would go to Tampa Bay in a deal for Baez and Toby Hall.


I'd bite on that one if I were Tampa. Jackson is probably at his lowest value right now, and he's still better than any D'Ray pitching prospect.

-- MWE
   38. Psychedelic Red Pants Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:09 PM (#1815902)
Lidge, Everett, Taveras/Lane, and 25-30 mil or Manny and Clement?

Presumably the Manny/Clement package included a good deal of cash, as the Red Sox abandoned their "organizational philosophy" of not including cash in trades somewhere between the ARod non-trade and the Renteria deal.
   39. akrasian Posted: January 11, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#1816267)
I don't buy that rumored D-Rays/Dodgers trade. Colletti has had all offseason with opportunities to trade prospects - and he's protected every one. I don't see him trading Jackson while his value is low and Navarro before Martin is ready (if even then).

Now, if Baez were available for less than that, that might be different. There are undoubtedly some prospects that the Dodgers would move.

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