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Saturday, December 18, 2010

FSN/Morosi: Sources: Greinke asks Royals for trade

Changing agents, too:

Greinke fired his agent on Friday, the clearest indication yet of the ace right-hander’s desire to be sent to another club.

After Greinke switched representation from SFX Baseball to CAA, a high-ranking executive from another team told FOXSports.com, “He really wants out of K.C.” Separate major-league sources confirmed that Greinke has unequivocally asked the Royals to be traded.

Mike Emeigh Posted: December 18, 2010 at 02:42 AM | 137 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, royals

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   1. Textbook Editor Posted: December 18, 2010 at 02:55 AM (#3713428)
Hmmm... I'm starting to suspect he'll wind up with the Yankees after all. Cashman will later claim it was the plan all along.
   2. Esoteric Posted: December 18, 2010 at 03:04 AM (#3713430)
Pretty high drama stuff here. Where's Posnanski on this?
   3. Cooper Teenoh Posted: December 18, 2010 at 03:05 AM (#3713431)
Yeah, there's no chance that the Cubs could flip him for prospects and Kosuke Fukudome, is there?
Can we pretend there is, just for a little while?
   4. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 18, 2010 at 03:31 AM (#3713437)
Pretty high drama stuff here. Where's Posnanski on this?

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2010/12/being-there-with-greinke.html

Joe doesn't seem concerned with how it affects KC so much as seeming happy for Zack that he will have a chance to win somewhere else.
   5. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:07 AM (#3713450)
Can't rule out the Phillies, for... obvious reasons.
   6. Dale Sams Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:11 AM (#3713451)
Hold out for Gardner and Joba KC, don't settle for some pissant "Big B" prospects!
   7. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:23 AM (#3713453)
Hold out for Gardner and Joba KC, don't settle for some pissant "Big B" prospects!

Gardner isn't going anywhere with Crawford off the market. Joba+cash (if anyone really still wants him), Brackman (one good year, pretty close to big league ready and a lot of projectability) and Heathcott (toolsy CF lottery ticket that has shown some skills and some holes) could probably get it done, given what it took to get Gonzalez. Even though Gonzalez was only signed for one year, was signed way below his value, while Greinke has a more reasonable contract (13.5 mil for each year) so I have to think the packages they demand should be all that different, especially since Greinke is demanding a trade. If you want to throw in another good Yankee prospect that isn't Montero or Sanchez, that's fine too (although I don't think either Betances or Banuelos is necessary and obviously I'd prefer they stay put) but I think that would be a lot of value compared to what other teams have been giving up. Since the Royals want up the middle guys, Adams or Romine might be of interest too.
   8. Coot Veal and Cot Deal taste like Old Bay Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:27 AM (#3713454)
Can't rule out the Phillies, for... obvious reasons.


I don't give a hoot about the Phils, but that'd be really cool...
   9. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:28 AM (#3713455)
Hmmm... I'm starting to suspect he'll wind up with the Yankees after all. Cashman will later claim it was the plan all along.
Right or wrong, I think the Yankees see Zach Greinke and think "Javier Vazquez".
   10. Dan Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:28 AM (#3713456)
I wonder how averse the Royals are to trading him in-division. One would have to think that both the Twins and Tigers are good fits for Greinke.

I don't want to see him on the Yankees since I like him, but at least he's a righty. With 5 lefties in their regular lineup, I can't imagine the Red Sox were looking forward to the potential matchups against Lee.
   11. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:30 AM (#3713458)
I think Greinke is likely to enjoy a better next five years than will Cliff Lee.
   12. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:31 AM (#3713459)
I don't want to see him on the Yankees since I like him, but at least he's a righty. With 5 lefties in their regular lineup, I can't imagine the Red Sox were looking forward to the potential matchups against Lee.
If they had 9 righties in their lineup, they probably wouldn't have looked forward to facing Lee.
   13. OCD SS Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:32 AM (#3713460)
given what it took to get Gonzalez,


Did I miss a rule change where what the Padres got for Gonzalez somehow set an official market rate that other GMs are bound to adhere to in future deals?
   14. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:37 AM (#3713463)
Yes, given what the Diamondbacks got for Curt Schilling, I think the Yankees are set up for trading Joe Girardi's most recent ear booger for Greinke.
   15. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq., LLC Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:39 AM (#3713465)
Did I miss a rule change where what the Padres got for Gonzalez somehow set an official market rate that other GMs are bound to adhere to in future deals?
Fun fact:

Players rarely get traded for what we think they're "worth".
   16. . . . . . . Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:43 AM (#3713468)
I think the Yanks should trade Montero and a C+/B- arm or two for Grienke. Yeah, he's batshit, but ############ can pitch. If there's one thing you can use money to find in MLB, it's star-hitting 1Bmen. And if, inshallah, Montero would've stuck at C, you still have Romine and Sanchez coming up behind him and Martin to stopgap.

Given the Cliff lee and Adrian Gonzalez packages, I think that's a market package for a guy of that caliber, especially since the guy is a bit of a wack job.
   17. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:44 AM (#3713469)
Joba+cash (if anyone really still wants him), Brackman (one good year, pretty close to big league ready and a lot of projectability) and Heathcott (toolsy CF lottery ticket that has shown some skills and some holes) could probably get it done

So, apparently the Royals are asking for "a lot more"* than Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek from the Blue Jays, but the Royals will instead take Joba and New York's 5th and 8th best prospects**?

* As per Jon Heyman. I'd rather have the Jays pair than those three Yankees straight up, let alone plus anything.

** As per Baseball America. Sickels ranked them 6th and 9th and gave them both B-. Drabek was an A- and Baseball American ranked him the team's best prospect.
   18. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:44 AM (#3713470)
Did I miss a rule change where what the Padres got for Gonzalez somehow set an official market rate that other GMs are bound to adhere to in future deals?

If you have a better idea on how to evaluate what GMs are asking for in exchange for baseball players, I would love to hear it. I mean, is the Dan Uggla trade making you think that some how that the Gonzalez trade isn't representative of the market?

It's pretty clear, top notch prospects aren't being moved and teams are content to take guys who are riskier than the people here would like in exchange for top level performers. At least that hypo trade I posted above involves giving up a proven Major League contributor.
   19. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:44 AM (#3713471)
You know what KC needs? Carlos Beltran to come home.

(Note: I love Carlos Beltran, but that would be a hilarious trade.)
   20. philevans3154 Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:45 AM (#3713472)
Without Zack, the Royals will be unwatchable. Even more so. Billy Butler is going to get pretty tired carrying this franchise until Moustakas and Hosmer come up.

Makes a fella proud to be a Royals fan...
   21. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:52 AM (#3713476)
So, apparently the Royals are asking for "a lot more"* than Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek from the Blue Jays, but the Royals will instead take Joba and New York's 5th and 8th best prospects**?

The Royals are looking for up the middle players, not young DHs who, while young, have struggled with contact and getting on base in the Majors. I mean, in a vacuum, maybe that's a better package, but the Royals have organizational needs. One thing they have at the moment is corner hitters with some upside (Butler and Gordon come to mind immediately).

And I also suggested that if the Yanks need be, they could throw in Adams or Romine. I'd rather a package with the above three and one of those two than Snider and Drabek. Throw in Hector Noesi instead if that makes it seem more reasonable. Sickels gave him a B+. The Yanks have tons of guys who look like they will be contributors but probably not good enough to stick long term on the Yankees.

If the Royals are asking for more, good for them. I seriously doubt Dayton Moore is going to be able to do all that well, whoever ends up getting him.
   22. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:54 AM (#3713477)
How about this - the Royals tell Greinke no?
   23. Dan Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:19 AM (#3713486)
It's probably a safe bet that Greinke will get traded for a package that the majority of posters here will declare underwhelming. Ned Colletti seems to be the only GM who still trades blue chip prospects for anything short of superstars signed for several years below market price.

I don't think it will be a trade to the Yankees because I think Larry is right in post #10. The Yankees have to be leery about spending their trade chips on a "head case" after Vazquez's disastrous 2010 season.
   24. OCD SS Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:23 AM (#3713488)
If you have a better idea on how to evaluate what GMs are asking for in exchange for baseball players, I would love to hear it. I mean, is the Dan Uggla trade making you think that some how that the Gonzalez trade isn't representative of the market?


Given his defensive issues and the fact that he played for the Marlins, I don't think the Uggla trade, or any other sheer salary dump, tells us much about the market. Furthermore I don't think one super-cheap year of AGon equates to 2 fairly inexpensive years of Grienke (when aces are getting paid $20M+). The Sox gave up their top 2 prospects for AGon; we may disagree about their relative value, but the Sox were dealing with someone who similarly valued those players. Maybe the Braves have a chance to land Grienke on such valuations, but I doubt the Yankees do.

The Yanks have tons of guys who look like they will be contributors but probably not good enough to stick long term on the Yankees.


That should be a great selling point to the Royals. I'm sure the Yankees can try to sell it as a return to the good 'ol days. Who doesn't appreciate that?
   25. The Artist Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:53 AM (#3713494)
Yankee Fans are hilarious. Perhaps I can trade you Sergio Romo for Nick Swisher and Phil Hughes?
   26. Benji Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:00 AM (#3713498)
If the Yankees don't get Zack their fans might lynch Cashman and Hank.
   27. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:04 AM (#3713500)
<nyc_talk_radio_fan>Damaso Marte and Colin Curtis!</nyc_talk_radio_fan>
   28. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:05 AM (#3713501)
Given his defensive issues and the fact that he played for the Marlins, I don't think the Uggla trade, or any other sheer salary dump, tells us much about the market.

It's not like this deal is without off the field factors. Greinke is demanding a trade.

Furthermore I don't think one super-cheap year of AGon equates to 2 fairly inexpensive years of Grienke (when aces are getting paid $20M+).

One, A-Gonz was absurdly undervalued. Greinke may still be undervalued, but not anywhere near as absurd as paying Gonzalez 5.5 million. Two, the package I offered up is significantly more valuable than the Red Sox one. Joba is a bonafide Major League pitcher, the Yanks throw in his 2011 salary and the Royals have a free starting pitcher with genuine upside. Brackman has a big arm and is pretty close to the Majors, Heathcott seems pretty equivalent to Fuentes. Throw in a guy like Adams (up the middle player) or Romine (up the middle player) or Noesi (nearly ML ready), and you have a group of prospects that is pretty close to equal of the one the Sox gave up for Gonzalez plus Joba, who the Royals will almost certainly put in the starting rotation.

The Sox gave up their top 2 prospects for AGon; we may disagree about their relative value, but the Sox were dealing with someone who similarly valued those players. Maybe the Braves have a chance to land Grienke on such valuations, but I doubt the Yankees do.

Well, the Sox system isn't as deep as the Yankee system is right now. And you have no clue how Moore values the Yankee system, neither do I. But lets not pretend the package I hypothetically offered doesn't have value. The worst prospect in there is a second baseman who raked at AA at 23 before he hurt himself. The best guys in there are going to be at the bottom of the preseason top 100 lists and the package includes a bonafide Major League pitcher that a lot of people believe still has some significant upside. All of them are players the Royals could use to my knowledge (except for maybe Romine because they have Myers).

That should be a great selling point to the Royals. I'm sure the Yankees can try to sell it as a return to the good 'ol days. Who doesn't appreciate that?

Why wouldn't the Royals want cheap ball players who have a decent chance to be pretty good? It's hardly an indictment of David Adams to acknowledge he isn't going to push Robinson Cano off of second, no matter if he keeps on hitting like he has the last two seasons. It's not unreasonable to realize that if Noesi ever pitches for the Yanks, he will either be a swing man or depth on the farm. For the Royals, he could be a quality 4th starter. Romine was a top 100 prospect according to some prospect hounds last year. Guys like Heathcott and Brackman have worlds of upside, it's just a question of whether they reach it or not, which makes them pretty much the same as the players in the Red Sox package.

You can downplay the package as much as you want. There is no reason to believe a prospect like Montero is going anywhere this offseason, and I don't think there is any reason to believe Dayton Moore is going to be able to get a Primate approved deal out of this. I'm not saying this package is a lock to get it done or anything, especially if the Jays or some other teams get in on it and drive up the price. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks had to put a guy like Banuelos in there to seal the deal. But I would be surprised if anyone gave up much more than that.

Yankee Fans are hilarious. Perhaps I can trade you Sergio Romo for Nick Swisher and Phil Hughes?

All of the players listed are good prospects, every one is a top ten prospect in a good farm system except for Adams. Joba is still a valuable asset. I don't know why people around here can't accept that what they think is fair just isn't going to happen.
   29. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:13 AM (#3713502)
The Royals are looking for up the middle players, not young DHs who, while young, have struggled with contact and getting on base in the Majors. I mean, in a vacuum, maybe that's a better package, but the Royals have organizational needs. One thing they have at the moment is corner hitters with some upside (Butler and Gordon come to mind immediately).


I don't see how Butler is really relevant to a discussion about Travis Snider. Snider is a corner outfield. Butler is a 1B, who should wind up at DH once Hosmer arrives. Gordon is not done as a prospect, but I doubt he would be an obstacle to acquiring a 22-year-old who was once one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.

And I also suggested that if the Yanks need be, they could throw in Adams or Romine. I'd rather a package with the above three and one of those two than Snider and Drabek. Throw in Hector Noesi instead if that makes it seem more reasonable. Sickels gave him a B+. The Yanks have tons of guys who look like they will be contributors but probably not good enough to stick long term on the Yankees.

Romine and Noesi were New York's 6th and 7th prospects as per BA. As per Sickels they were 8th and 5th. Noesi got a B, not a B+. Adams was a C+, not ranked by Baseball America. Maybe you'd rather have the 5th, 6th and 8th prospects (using BA) of the Yankees and Joba than Drabek and Snider, but I think you're in the distinct minority there. Secondly, the Royals are asking for "a lot more" than that. Whether they'll get it is another issue, but your original comment was that Joba and 2 reasonable prospects would "probably get it done." Based on every leaked rumour, the Royals are a couple months away from accepting anything close to that.
   30. McCoy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:21 AM (#3713504)
The Cubs could send the Royals Tyler Colvin, Sean Marhsall, and Brett Jackson and I think the Royals would be crazy not to take that trade. Obviously it should be contingent on a contract extension as well.

Though if I was the Cubs GM and I wasn't worried about getting fired I probably wouldn't trade for Greinke or if I did try to trade for him I wouldn't offer a package that good.
   31. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:29 AM (#3713506)
The best guys in there are going to be at the bottom of the preseason top 100 lists and the package includes a bonafide Major League pitcher that a lot of people believe still has some significant upside. All of them are players the Royals could use to my knowledge (except for maybe Romine because they have Myers).

And a package that reportedly hasn't been offered, but which KC reportedly would not accept, has a Top 20 prospect in baseball and a bonafide major league outfielder that a lot of people believe has some significant upside.
   32. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3713507)
Snider is a corner outfield.

But the Royals have clearly said that they are looking for up the middle players.

Gordon is not done as a prospect, but I doubt he would be an obstacle to acquiring a 22-year-old who was once one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.

You doubt a former top ten prospect who struggled in the Majors in limited playing time would be an obstacle to another top 10 prospect who struggled in the Majors in limited playing time. I mean, sure Gordon is older, but they also don't need to give up Greinke to get him.

Noesi got a B, not a B+.

Yup, my bad, I misremembered.

Maybe you'd rather have the 5th, 6th and 8th prospects (using BA) of the Yankees and Joba than Drabek and Snider, but I think you're in the distinct minority there.

I'm not sure why Toronto's former top prospect is notably more valuable than Toronto's. Joba is 24 and while he struggled last year, his peripherals were excellent and his velocity came back. I feel pretty confident Joba cancels out Snider, maybe that's a mistake, but that's my impression, especially if the Yanks throw in cash. Maybe I'm underestimating Drabek, but his peripherals in AAA were unimpressive, although I am coming around to your argument that he may be considered more valuable than the combo of Yankee prospects given Noesi's low upside and the other two's spotty track records. But if that's the case, the Yanks can add depth (guys like Warren or Stoneburner) or high end talent (Betances or Banuelos) to their offer and make a better offer without letting go of Montero.

Secondly, the Royals are asking for "a lot more" than that.

Well sure, Greinke just demanded the trade tonight.

Based on every leaked rumour, the Royals are a couple months away from accepting anything close to that.

But all of those rumors are out of date as of the time the Greinke fired his agent. Everyone knows the Royals have to move him or deal with an unhappy Greinke, that hurts their bargaining position.
   33. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:41 AM (#3713511)
But the Royals have clearly said that they are looking for up the middle players.


So of course there is absolutely no chance that they would accept any thing else than just that.
   34. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:49 AM (#3713513)
So of course there is absolutely no chance that they would accept any thing else than just that.

Of course, no one is saying that (and of course, you know that!) but if the Royals are trying to find players that can cheaply play positions they don't have players for, they may take a lesser player if he plays the right position. Honestly though, looking at their top Minor Leaguers, I'm not sure why they are looking for up the middle guys. About the only place up the middle they don't have a good prospect is CF. Looks like they could use a guy like Snider more than they could use a second baseman or a catcher, that's for sure.
   35. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:28 AM (#3713516)
Could the Reds go after Greinke? Maybe a deal centered around Mike Leake or Travis Wood? I think this would be a great time for the Reds to do something big.
   36. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:35 AM (#3713517)
If only the Yankees had a Casey Kelly in their system we wouldn't need to quibble about these lesser prospects. What kind of name is Hector Noesi anyway?
   37. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:26 AM (#3713522)
If only the Yankees had a Casey Kelly in their system we wouldn't need to quibble about these lesser prospects. What kind of name is Hector Noesi anyway?

I don't think this new shtick is as entertaining as your other one, but I'm willing to give it more time.
   38. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:32 AM (#3713524)
You doubt a former top ten prospect who struggled in the Majors in limited playing time would be an obstacle to another top 10 prospect who struggled in the Majors in limited playing time. I mean, sure Gordon is older, but they also don't need to give up Greinke to get him.

Well, I don't get why you raised Gordon in the first place. KC could have Gordon in left and Snider in right (or vice-versa) and find playing time for the both of them. Yes, they have Francouer this year, but they could rotate the three outfielders between DH and have Butler at 1B, since Hosmer won't be up until mid-2011, at the earliest from what I've been led to believe. Also, as you acknowledged, Gordon is 3 years older than Snider and has two and half times as many plate appearances in the majors than Snider. Snider also posted an OPS 100 points higher than Gordon last year. I'd rate him as substantially more likely to impact bat than Gordon.

I feel pretty confident Joba cancels out Snider, maybe that's a mistake, but that's my impression, especially if the Yanks throw in cash.

I'd rather have Snider, but maybe I'm in the minority.

Maybe I'm underestimating Drabek, but his peripherals in AAA were unimpressive, although I am coming around to your argument that he may be considered more valuable than the combo of Yankee prospects given Noesi's low upside and the other two's spotty track records. But if that's the case, the Yanks can add depth (guys like Warren or Stoneburner) or high end talent (Betances or Banuelos) to their offer and make a better offer without letting go of Montero.

Regardless of whether you were impressed by his peripherals, I suspect strongly Drabek will be a Top 20 prospect on most 2011 lists. I doubt you'd rather have three B prospects than Montero and I think most teams would rather have Drabek than three B/B-/C+ prospects (and that wasn't a suggestion Drabek is Montero's equal as a prospect). If I'm the Royals, I don't want depth guys when I'm trading my most valuable asset. I want high end talent. Maybe Betances or Banuelos put the Yankees over the top, I don't know, but I think they're far more likely to make a difference than Warren or Stoneburner.

Well sure, Greinke just demanded the trade tonight....But all of those rumors are out of date as of the time the Greinke fired his agent. Everyone knows the Royals have to move him or deal with an unhappy Greinke, that hurts their bargaining position.

The Royals still have multiple suitors for Greinke, including two teams that just lost out on Cliff Lee and others there weren't in on Cliff Lee but have linked to Greinke (Blue Jays and Brewers, to name two). I don't think the trade demand really hurts their bargaining position just yet. It was likely they were going to trade him this offseason and now all that's happened is that he's added a little fuel to the fire. That's why I said, if it's two months from now and nobody has met KC's price and no "bidding war" has ensued, maybe your offer would look more reasonable. From the beginning, it's been pretty clear that the Royals were likely to trade Greinke and were going to wait until Cliff Lee signed to do it. Good young pitching is the hottest commodity in the majors, so Moore isn't going to back down from his demands quickly.
   39. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:33 AM (#3713525)
Don't think I don't appreciate it.
   40. Topher Posted: December 18, 2010 at 12:05 PM (#3713532)
The Royals have zero leverage here. Zero. Even if they held Greinke to get draft picks, he has indicated in both words and actions that he won't be trying his best. And with Greinke's no trade clause and new agent, he's going to pretty much choose his next team.

Give KC a couple of young arms like Caleb Cotham and Michael O'Brien. And since KC wants immediate help up the middle throw in a guy like Kevin Russo who can play now.

Is that fair value? No. Is KC in a position to ask for more? No.

And none of this matters if Greinke doesn't want to be a Yankee. But if he does, he's going to be wearing Pinstripes. And there is no reason to give up much more than this.
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 12:30 PM (#3713535)
And none of this matters if Greinke doesn't want to be a Yankee. But if he does, he's going to be wearing Pinstripes. And there is no reason to give up much more than this.
That only works if Greinke has a totally binary "want to be a Yankee more than anything else in the entire world / don't want to play in New York" set of desires. It's entirely possible that Greinke might want to play for a winner, and would be happy being traded to New York or Los Angeles or Chicago or Texas or Atlanta or Boston or St Louis or San Francisco or Colorado and so on. I think it's far more likely that Greinke is open to being traded to a wide variety of places, and the Royals will have perfectly good leverage to play these teams off each other.
   42. Koot Posted: December 18, 2010 at 12:55 PM (#3713536)
Even if they held Greinke to get draft picks, he has indicated in both words and actions that he won't be trying his best.


If he really does this... he will head into free agency three years removed from his Cy Young season with three mediocre seasons. If KC can't get what they want in a trade, they should call his bluff.
   43. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:05 PM (#3713538)
And none of this matters if Greinke doesn't want to be a Yankee. But if he does, he's going to be wearing Pinstripes. And there is no reason to give up much more than this.


That only works if Greinke has a totally binary "want to be a Yankee more than anything else in the entire world / don't want to play in New York" set of desires. It's entirely possible that Greinke might want to play for a winner, and would be happy being traded to New York or Los Angeles or Chicago or Texas or Atlanta or Boston or St Louis or San Francisco or Colorado and so on. I think it's far more likely that Greinke is open to being traded to a wide variety of places, and the Royals will have perfectly good leverage to play these teams off each other.

I was driving home the other night and heard on the radio that Greinke has a list of fifteen teams he wouldn't play for, including the Yankees. Unfortunately, this was one of those "top of the hour" bulletins with no followup. Does anybody know which teams were on that list, or even if such a list exists? I tend not to believe what I hear on our local 24/7 Redskins station WTEM.
   44. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:09 PM (#3713539)
I was driving home the other night and heard on the radio that Greinke has a list of fifteen teams he wouldn't play for, including the Yankees.
It's not a list of teams he won't play for, it's a partial no-trade clause with various teams enumerated - that is, Greinke has a no-trade to the Yankees and fourteen others clubs. I assume, if Greinke is demanding a trade, he's willing to waive the NTC. (It was speculated in another thread that listing the Yankees in the NTC likely isn't a case of not wanting to play for the Yankees, but of intelligent contract design. One of the most likely clubs that Greinke could be traded to is obviously the Yankees, so Greinke's agent designed a NTC that would give his client maximum leverage over likely future events.)
   45. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:11 PM (#3713540)
I suspect the no trade list is just structured to give Greinke a little leverage. I'm sure if they work out a deal the Yanks can find a way to convince him to waive it.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:14 PM (#3713542)
What do you mean the Royals have no leverage? They have Greinke under contract for 2 more years at a reasonable price. Just how much more leverage could any team possibly have?

Cot's confirms that he can name up to 15 teams he can't be traded to but they don't tell us who's on the list.
   47. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:33 PM (#3713548)
I heard a rundown of the teams a couple of days ago, but the only one aincsn remember is that the Rangers are NOT blocked by his NTC.

Also, CP's proposal is a lousy fit for the Royals, and I'd be shocked if that got it done.
   48. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:36 PM (#3713549)
Yeah, I'm not sure why the Royals would trade him right this instant, although if the Yankees are really desperate to make an offseason splash I'm sure they have enough assets to get a deal done.

It just seems like they'd be better off waiting to make a deal until midsummer or the start of next year's offseason. Of course, if he's serious about dogging it, that's a different question, but you'd like to think he'd go along with a scheme designed to get him to someone in the race next year, even if it required pitching well in KC for another three months.

Exit question: how much does the idea that he might not try his best if the situation isn't to his liking hurt his trade value, especially considering he already has the "head case" label?
   49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:36 PM (#3713550)
The main issue with CP's proposal is that Joba is arbitration-eligible this year. Why would the Royals trade two years of Greinke at a bargain price for three years of Joba at a bargain price? The Royals are going to want guys they get six years out of, or five at the least.
   50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3713551)
It just seems like they'd be better off waiting to make a deal until midsummer or the start of next year's offseason.
Why? Two years of Greinke is more valuable than 1.5 years of Greinke is more valuable than 1 year of Greinke. If the goal is to get the greatest return on the trade, this offseason is absolutely the right time to move. Plus, the free agent pitcher market is barren - teams will be paying for Greinke to avoid havign to trust in the Carl Pavano lottery. If the Royals want to keep Greinke so that the team doens't suck as bad and to put asses in the seats, that's fair, but it won't maximize their return in trade.

Also, why would the Royals do this? Because Greinke asked them to. Developing a reputation for refusing your players' requests isn't a good way to run a ballclub. They shouldn't trade Greinke for any old proposal, of course, but I think they'll get some good offers, and in all likelihood offers made this offseason will be the best the Royals will see. I highly doubt Greinke would dog it - we're basing the "not trying his best" on Chris Rose's self-refuting post #41, so it's a pretty silly thing to be talking about.
   51. OCD SS Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:43 PM (#3713552)
Well, the Sox system isn't as deep as the Yankee system is right now. And you have no clue how Moore values the Yankee system, neither do I. But lets not pretend the package I hypothetically offered doesn't have value.


CP, I agree completely. I've often argued around here that superstars getting traded aren't going to go for the huge prospect packages people think is "fair." The package you suggest has decent value, and we almost certainly disagree about their values, but what I think indicts your package as too little is that the Yankees you send it off and not really miss anyone. Even in a stronger system there's no way Moore is going to accept a package that doesn't include one or two of Jesus Montero, Sanchez, Betances, Banuelos, or Brackman.

Jobba is not the player he was when he came up. He was barely a decent reliever last year, and he's entering arbitration. Nosei in no way looks like a good enough pitching prospect that Moore would prefer him to one of the "B's". I can see the Royals not taking Montero (because of Will Meyers, but I don't see them accepting Romine over Sanchez.

The market is fundamentally different for Grienke as it was for AdGon. Hoyer really knew and liked the Sox's prospects. Moore probably isn't looking at the Yankees that way. Moore also is going to have a lot of suitors for Grienke, and several of them systems equal to the Yankees; that's probably going to increase what he can get beyond what you can suggest (the point about relative evaluations taken, of course).

Why wouldn't the Royals want cheap ball players who have a decent chance to be pretty good?


Because they're not owned by Arnold Johnson anymore?
   52. Matt Welch Posted: December 18, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3713559)
The Royals are looking for up the middle players, not young DHs

Great! Because the Angels have Brandon Wood, Alberto Callaspo, Alexi Amarista and Jean Segura with their bags packed!
   53. Jack Keefe Posted: December 18, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3713565)
Hey Al I half gone to Mr Williams and demanded a trade too only I have a list of 29 teams I will not go to. So you see the Sox have no choice but to sine me and that will give me Leveridge Al. This is how you play Hard Ball in Neghostiations.
   54. Mike Hampton's #1 Fan Posted: December 18, 2010 at 02:37 PM (#3713566)
Why? Two years of Greinke is more valuable than 1.5 years of Greinke is more valuable than 1 year of Greinke. If the goal is to get the greatest return on the trade, this offseason is absolutely the right time to move.

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but I wonder if they might not be able to drive the price higher during a pennant race, especially now that some of the teams that were looking to make big moves this offseason have already made them. Of course, I suppose it works both ways; while there are teams that might think right now they're set at starting pitcher and are reluctant to give a lot for a head case, equally, there are going to be teams who right now think they'll be in it next summer but will be out of contention by the time the deadline actually rolls around. The other other side is that maybe the teams that are looking right now don't have the players that the Royals are looking for. Whatever; if they can get a deal they're happy with, they should make that deal, whenever it comes around.

Also, why would the Royals do this? Because Greinke asked them to. Developing a reputation for refusing your players' requests isn't a good way to run a ballclub.

I said "I'm not sure why they'd trade him right this instant," so I'm also not sure where you'd get the idea that I think they should refuse his request. Having said that:

a) I'm not sure how the Royals could look any worse as a destination for free agents than they do already. :)
b) Letting the inmates run the asylum is also not a good way to run a ballclub.

Greinke demanding a trade is basically just more data for the algorithm of whether they can get more value (in the broad sense, including however much they value player goodwill) from keeping him or dealing him. The Royals should do it if it's best for them, and while I happen to think it probably would be best for them, they might disagree. But they certainly shouldn't do it just because Greinke "demanded" it; that's why God and Scott Boras created opt-outs.
   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3713576)
The Sox gave up their top 2 prospects for AGon;

This is meaningless. The Yankees have a top-10, probably top-5 farm system, the Red Sox, even before the trade, were probably bottom-10. Now they are pushing bottom-5.

The Yankees have 12 players rated B- or better by Sickels, and a straight A.

The Red Sox list isn't out yet, but from their top-10 last year, Tazawa and Westmoreland had horrible health problems, and the rest had almost uniformly bad seasons.

There really is no comparison.
   56. Nasty Nate Posted: December 18, 2010 at 03:38 PM (#3713578)
I think the Yankees will trade for him. But even if some other team does, I will repeat the predictions that were wisely made by others before any potential Adrian Gonzalez or Justin Upton trade: everyone here will think the Royals got too little.

Also, Greinke's list of No-trade teams is pretty much meaningless if he actually 'demands' a trade.
   57. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:00 PM (#3713589)
Wouldn't a team have to take into consideration Zack's mental health challenges? I am trying to word this properly but as a business owner if I am looking to onboard someone and know he/she has a history of issues I apply a discount. In some ways it's tougher to assess risk than a physical injury.

Any thoughts on this?
   58. RJ in TO Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3713593)
Why? Two years of Greinke is more valuable than 1.5 years of Greinke is more valuable than 1 year of Greinke. If the goal is to get the greatest return on the trade, this offseason is absolutely the right time to move.

The same things was argued when it came out that the Jays were looking to trade Halladay during the 2009 season, and that the Jays had to take the best offer they could get right at that moment, because the offers would never, ever, ever be that good again. Instead, they let the trade deadline pass and waited until the offseason, and managed to pick up an extra quality prospect in the Philly trade.

Circumstances change - the level of interest (and level of pressure) that teams have are constantly fluctuating. Just because the number of WAR that a player is likely to generate for a team will only decrease as the time remaining under contract shrinks, it doesn't mean that the perceived value of those remaining WAR to his potential new team aren't increasing in value. If a team like the Yankees (or the Red Sox, or the Rays, or whoever else) finds themselves a couple games back with a hole in their rotation around the trade deadline, it's certainly possible that their GM may feel the need to pay more than they would have in the offseason to get their hands on a player who could push them back into the playoffs.
   59. KronicFatigue Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:17 PM (#3713596)
[58] I agree that his history in that area is going to lower the value that KC gets back in a trade. There's a non-zero chance that Zack could walk away from the game. The PR hit that Cashman would endure would be much worse than a career injury. While I want the Yankees to get him, and don't think any of his "issues" will be a problem at all, I think that teams have every right to be concerned by it, and adjust their offers accordingly.
   60. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:20 PM (#3713599)
Circumstances change - the level of interest (and level of pressure) that teams have are constantly fluctuating. Just because the number of WAR that a player is likely to generate for a team will only decrease as the time remaining under contract shrinks, it doesn't mean that the perceived value of those remaining WAR to his potential new team aren't increasing in value.
Certainly this is correct in general, but I am doubtful it applies to the current situation. There are no more good free agent pitchers, and there's only one or two even averageish free agent pitchers left. At the same time, at the very least both Texas and the Yankees need another top starter, and they're not the only teams with an opening and pennant hopes that Greinke would help. This offseason looks like a great time to move a starter. Obviously that doesn't mean the Royals have to move him - he's good and he makes the Royals better, which makes Royals fans happier - but I don't think his likely trade return is going to increase from here. This is a great time, both in the abstract and in the specific, to move Greinke.
   61. Nasty Nate Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:21 PM (#3713600)
I think the biggest thing that could make Greinke's trade value higher in midseason or later is his actual performance. If he is sporting a 1.10 ERA after the first 2 months like he did in 2009, teams wouldn't worry about his 2010 season.
   62. Mr. J. Penny Smoltzuzaka Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:41 PM (#3713606)
Any thoughts on this?


As a business owner myself, and after a number of years of hiring people and finding out the hard way, I generally try to avoid mercurial personalities no matter how technically proficient they appear to be. The nature of my business rewards steady and average more than brilliant and unreliable.

Saying that, I don't assemble professional sports teams for a living and Zack Greinke has displayed at times overwhelming physical baseball skills. And while an individual displaying lesser physical skills would quickly merit a "Sorry, not interested.", Greinke deserves special consideration due to his flashes of brillance and the good chance that his prior challenges, while perhaps not overcome, are controlled.
   63. Darren Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:45 PM (#3713612)
To hear Yankees fans on here constantly complaining about a trade in which the Red Sox gave up 2 top 50 prospects for 1 year of Gonzalez is getting as tiresome as Joba to the Stars' complaints about the poor Yankees suffering from the luxury tax.

The Red Sox gave up a package that has been blessed by the prospect-rating community as fair, and that was when they thought Boston had worked out an extension for AGonz. And it's not like the Trade was made by Ed Wade or Bill Bavasi. It was made by sabermetrically inclined GM who comes from a winning tradition in Boston and was very successful so far in San Diego.

Furthermore, to hear Yankees fans going on about lopsided trades is laughable. Bobby Abreu. Alex Rodriguez. Nick Swisher. ROGER F. CLEMENS! The Yankees don't just make ridiculously lopsided trades, they make ridiculously lopsided trades that get them inner-circle Hall of Famers! It drives me insane every damn time it happens, but it keeps happening.

But any time the Red Sox manage to acquire a good player, it's because something fishy is going on. The other teams want to stick to the Yankees (Jim Beattie!) or they're secretly conspiring to help their good friends on the Red Sox. No team could ever actually make a legitimate trade of a good player to a team other than the Yankees!

As for Greinke, the Red Sox should step up and offer Buchholz. Then we can hear about how Baird put in a good word with his old employers and got a supersecret discount.
   64. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: December 18, 2010 at 04:48 PM (#3713616)
I tend not to believe what I hear on our local 24/7 Redskins station WTEM.


Just curious: is the tuner knob on your car radio broken?
   65. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:31 PM (#3713638)
To hear Yankees fans on here constantly complaining about a trade in which the Red Sox gave up 2 top 50 prospects for 1 year of Gonzalez is getting as tiresome as Joba to the Stars' complaints about the poor Yankees suffering from the luxury tax.


Wait, you're talking about the Yankee Tax, right? The one John Henry apologized to Bud Selig for breaching? That punitive anti-Yankee scheme designed to siphon off fairly-earned Yankee profits into a Budshovik slush fund for which no transparency existed? That one?

Furthermore, to hear Yankees fans going on about lopsided trades is laughable. Bobby Abreu.


Dude was owed $31 million over the next two seasons and the Phillies didn't want to pay it. You could bring up Kevin Brown here too - the Yankees have been providing salary relief for desperate franchises for years.

Alex Rodriguez.


The Yankees gave up a 28 year-old middle infielder coming off 126 and 129 OPS+ seasons - basically Dustin Pedroia, plus assumed a salary burden so crushing that it had the big-market, deep-pocketed, free-spending Red Sox begging the league to allow its restructuring in hopes of making the trade themselves. It isn't the Yankees' fault that Larry Lucchino is a cheapskate who cries for a salary cap every time the Yankees risk their profits but got surprisingly mum on the topic this year.

Nick Swisher.


92 OPS+ corner outfielders! Get yer 92 OPS+ corner outfielders here! Will play center field for the amusement of your fans! Coach hates him, you'll love him!

ROGER F. CLEMENS


David F. Wells finished 3rd in Cy Young voting in 2000 for those same Blue Jays (Clemens finished 6th for the thieving Yankees), made half as much money as Clemens, and you want to pretend that the Jays got rooked? Clemens was already three years older than when the Red Sox said his career was circling the drain, what more could you ask for? A decent left-handed reliever? Fine, take him.

I'm surprised you didn't mention Melky Cabrera for Javier Vazquez!
   66. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:37 PM (#3713640)
Having YR here is kind of like having your car radio broken.
   67. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:43 PM (#3713644)
I have not listened to WJFK since the day Stern went to Sirius.
   68. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: December 18, 2010 at 05:51 PM (#3713649)
Considering Greinke's remarkable success, I was surprised to learn during a visit to Kauffman Stadium last August that most Royals fans with whom I spoke viewed Soria as the face of the franchise, an interesting choice considering that the team is usually losing going into the ninth inning.
   69. Petunia Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3713657)
Wait, you're talking about the Yankee Tax, right? The one John Henry apologized to Bud Selig for breaching? That punitive anti-Yankee scheme designed to siphon off fairly-earned Yankee profits into a Budshovik slush fund for which no transparency existed? That one?

I know you guys think it's a little one-note (well, it is), but I actually agree with this complaint.

That being said, it may or may not belong in a Greinke/Royals thread.

Even though I said in the Pos/Greinke thread that I look forward to rooting for Greinke in a more high-profile situation, I do sorta wish he would give this management group a fair shake. They're supposed to be only 1 or 2 seasons away from graduating multiple top prospects on both sides of the ball, and it'd be nice to see Greinke give them a chance to see if that generation pans out without leaving. They'd have a lot better chance to do anything with him than without him.
   70. McCoy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:11 PM (#3713662)
isn't the "yankee tax" set up I the cba with agreed upon % going to different things?
   71. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:39 PM (#3713672)
Having YR here is kind of like having your car radio broken.


And it's 24-7 Van Halen, baby!

(Mostly David Lee Roth, but the occasional Sammy tune slips in there. No Gary Cherone need apply)

I know you guys think it's a little one-note (well, it is), but I actually agree with this complaint.

That being said, it may or may not belong in a Greinke/Royals thread.


Yeah, I shouldn't let myself get trolled so easily. In my humble defense, it's Saturday and I'm still groggy from staying up late to watch the K-1 Grand Prix rebroadcast on HDNET last night. Allistair Overeem is an absolute monster, I don't blame the entire UFC promotion for ducking him. Check out some clips on YouTube, worth your while.
   72. Topher Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:43 PM (#3713673)
#70 They're supposed to be only 1 or 2 seasons away from graduating multiple top prospects on both sides of the ball, and it'd be nice to see Greinke give them a chance to see if that generation pans out without leaving. They'd have a lot better chance to do anything with him than without him.

Greinke spoke intelligently about this. Are they prospects (mostly) going to be up by the end of 2012? Yes. Will they be developed to where they are actually contending? Probably not. Billy Butler and Joakim Soria (and Greinke) are probably the only sure thing in terms of providing above-average output. Greinke pointed out that even the can't miss prospects do sometimes miss, like Alex Gordon. And even a can't miss prospect that succeeds will often have a learning phase at the MLB level. The end of year lineup of the 2012 Royals is probably going to have a good deal of talent. But probably not matured to where they are contending. Greinke indicated he didn't want to have to wait for that talent to develop.

#51 I highly doubt Greinke would dog it - we're basing the "not trying his best" on Chris Rose's self-refuting post #41, so it's a pretty silly thing to be talking about.

The impact of not trying his best might still make him a good pitcher but it's the difference between a #1 starter and a #2/#3. Around the time Greinke said he didn't rally have patience for the prospects to emerge, (August(?)) he also noted that he had been losing concentration on the mound and that for a game against the Mariners he decided to not bother with film sessions to prepare but instead just decided to go out and play it by feel. It's not Gary Sheffield tanking, but last year's results speak for themselves. He's a good pitcher but not one worthy what Moore wants in return. And if Greinke starts 2011 with the Royals and doesn't pitch well, Moore is less and less likely to get a good return for him. I don't think Moore has any choice but to make a deal before the season starts.

Greinke is frustrated. He knows there might be some light at the end of the tunnel but it's too far away from him to have the patience to wait for it, especially since he's seen the total failure of previous Royal "rebuilding" efforts. And since that already had an impact on his 2010 season, I can't imagine Moore would want to risk a further lack of focus in 2011.
   73. Petunia Posted: December 18, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3713675)
Oh, (slightly) more info on Greinke's NTC: According to a source, according to Jon Paul Morosi (Fox sports), according to MLBTR, he can block trades to Yankees, Red Sox, and Nationals, but not the Tigers, Angels or Rangers. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/greinke-cant-block-trades-to-angels-rangers-tigers.html
   74. Danny Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3713685)
The main issue with CP's proposal is that Joba is arbitration-eligible this year. Why would the Royals trade two years of Greinke at a bargain price for three years of Joba at a bargain price?

This is the primary problem with CP's proposed package. It makes no sense for the Royals to want a guy like Joba back as the headliner.

I also don't understand why he's trying to sell his underwhelming package as "they want up the middle players" when the two best players he lists are pitchers. Well, I guess pitchers technically play up the middle...
   75. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:40 PM (#3713697)
This is the primary problem with CP's proposed package. It makes no sense for the Royals to want a guy like Joba back as the headliner.


I'll never really understand this phenomenon (I partake in it also; no innocence here). Whenever a fan of any team proposes specific players in a trade scenario, he's immediately smacked around. And sometimes accused of wishcasting to boot.

It's a lot easier to wait for someone else to make a specific proposal and just smack them around and Google the prospects' names in order to find a dissenting voice online about their abilities.

My opinion is that you don't need to agree with other peoples' trade proposals, but it's 100% incumbent upon the smacker-down to come up with an alternate proposal.
   76. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:43 PM (#3713700)
Cot's confirms that he can name up to 15 teams he can't be traded to but they don't tell us who's on the list.

Leaving us with the headline 14 Mystery Teams Enter the Hunt for Greinke
   77. Darren Posted: December 18, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3713702)

Wait, you're talking about the Yankee Tax, right? The one John Henry apologized to Bud Selig for breaching? That punitive anti-Yankee scheme designed to siphon off fairly-earned Yankee profits into a Budshovik slush fund for which no transparency existed? That one?


You sure proved me wrong... Do you use cut and paste?
   78. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:16 PM (#3713714)
As a Red Sox fan who is pleased with Boston's aggressive moves this off-season, let's talk about Greinke in a Red Sox uniform...

If a team wants to get Greinke at the lowest price, they need to offer assets to KC that are valuable to the Royals, even if they are not that valuable to your own team. What do we know the Royals want/need?

1) They have lots of strong prospects, but (I guess) are not as strong up the middle. I'm assuming that means they'd value quality prospects at C, 2B, SS, and/or CF.

2) The team needs some starting pitching - and that's even if they kept Greinke!

3) The talent needs to be cheap - and have some team control in the future, in terms of pre-arbitration years.

Could the Red Sox do this?
1) Kalish is a ready-in-2011 outfielder who could play center. He's the teams #1 prospect, on many boards. Jose Iglesias is a high-quality glove at SS, only 20 years of age, no power yet, but hit for a decent average in AA last year. He (I guess) is an amazing defensive player. The team also has a few catching prospects worth something in a trade. There's also the possibility of making Ellsbury an inexpensive piece of the trade, if the Red Sox would be comfortable putting Kalish in CF most nights.
2) The Sox could trade Daisuke, paying most of his 2011 & 2012 salary, though he is obviously not a centerpiece of any trade. Felix Doubront is a major league-ready lefty who could enter KC's rotation in 2011.
3) Everybody above (expect for Daisuke, whose salary would have to be almomst entirely subsidized by Boston) is cheap, and will be for a while yet.

So, one package: Ellsbury, Iglesias, Matsuzaka and $10m. (Doing the Matsuzaka part means that the Red Sox would be paying, in effect, about $37m for two years of Greinke - Greinke gets $27m for the next two years, plus the $10m to KC to help pay Matsuzaka). We get a rotation of Lester/Greinke/Buchholz/Beckett/Lackey, and an improved chance of extending Greinke. The Royals get payroll relief, a cheap starting CF who'll steal 70 bases and leadoff, their starting SS in 2012, and a starting pitcher who can be awfully maddening...but is also capable of pitching very well, and will cost them $4m/yr for two years.

Another: Kalish, Doubront, Matsuzaka and cash. (The Royals get a starting CF for 2011 really cheap, and a young lefty for their rotation in 2011. They also get Matsuzaka, as described above.)

I agree with those that think the Gonzalez trade does not provide much light about the market for Greinke. Greinke's salary, while very reasonable for his ability, would disqualify him from many teams' payrolls. Greinke's public moves also give the Royals less leverage than the Padres had with Gonzalez. The Padres could easily have waited until July to make a move; the Royals are not well-positioned to do the same. Also, I think most people would acknowledge that projecting a pitcher's next several years is riskier than projecting the next, say, five years of a 28-year-old first baseman who is one of the most patient hitters in the game. And the whole psychological makeup issue makes this a little tougher to project, too...
   79. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3713715)
Double post
   80. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:19 PM (#3713717)
Wouldn't a team have to take into consideration Zack's mental health challenges? I am trying to word this properly but as a business owner if I am looking to onboard someone and know he/she has a history of issues I apply a discount. In some ways it's tougher to assess risk than a physical injury.

Any thoughts on this?


In Posnanski's piece on Grienke he posits that Zack's issues are, in large part, fueled by the losing in KC.

Joba is 24 and while he struggled last year, his peripherals were excellent and his velocity came back.

Joba is exactly the kind of player who will not fetch fair value in trade. Because he's been a bit of a mystery over the past few years, the moment the Yankees try to trade him will create widespread suspicion that his own team views him as washed up or broken. As an opposing GM, you're going to take a lot less heat for adding a prospect who doesn't pan out than giving big value for a guy who has been up and down. Trading for Joba Chamberlain is just so much easier to second guess if it's not an obvious success.
   81. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:31 PM (#3713721)
I'll join the list of people critical of any trade in which Joba is the headliner, I don't even need to know anything about him other than looking at baseball reference and seeing "free agent 2013" .

I also don't see how the Royals could get more by waiting, Greinke wants to go to a winning team, prior to the regular season there are about 20+teams that can be considered as a winning team, the longer the season goes, the more teams drop off of that list, limiting your trading options. (right now Pirates, Astros, Orioles, Nationals, Mariners, Indians ....are probably the teams eliminated)


I keep hoping my team would be able to offer up a package, but our minors is not that good and outside of Shelby Miller there isn't anything potentially elite there, and there are no up the middle players available. (someone on another board suggested Colby Rasmus as the headliner, and my response is that I don't think there is any player in baseball I would trade Colby straight up for, forget part of a package)

I would love to imagine just an overwhelming number of prospects would trump quality,(heck if we hadn't already traded Ryan for a delivery driver for Starbucks, he could have been included to give them at least one semi-decent up the middle player)
   82. The District Attorney Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:49 PM (#3713725)
All of them are players the Royals could use to my knowledge (except for maybe Romine because they have Myers).
I believe Myers is/was playing OF in the fall league. I bet he doesn't end up as a catcher. Very few guys move back to catcher.

Teheran, Salcedo, Bethancourt, Schafer and, I don't know, Kawakami.
By the Jed Hoyer Principle, this should work...

I don't think there is any player in baseball I would trade Colby straight up for
I agree that Rasmus is a more valuable "headliner" than KC can expect to get in exchange for two non-cheap years of Greinke, but, jeez. Just to pick on the most obvious guy, how about Longoria? Yeah, you don't have to pay Rasmus much for the next couple of years, but then you do have to pay him, right? (Assuming he doesn't want to leave, that is...) Whereas you know for sure that you have Longoria for $12.5M for the next three years, and $42.5M for the next six.
   83. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 08:55 PM (#3713727)
Dan, how much would it take for you to change YR's handle to "Casey Kelly's Luxury Tax"?
   84. RJ in TO Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:17 PM (#3713735)
I agree that Rasmus is a more valuable "headliner" than KC can expect to get in exchange for two non-cheap years of Greinke, but, jeez.

Did you see that poster's handle?
   85. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3713737)
The Red Sox gave up a package that has been blessed by the prospect-rating community as fair, and that was when they thought Boston had worked out an extension for AGonz. And it's not like the Trade was made by Ed Wade or Bill Bavasi. It was made by sabermetrically inclined GM who comes from a winning tradition in Boston and was very successful so far in San Diego.

And a lot of us think the Red Sox prospects are grossly over-rated b/c of the "OMG Theo Epstein is who I want to grow up to be", "$100M player development machine" hype. And Hoyer is very likely to be one of those who buys into that hype.

Any Yankee prospect who has a year like Kelly's or Anderson's is immediately wrtten off, somehow with the Red Sox, it's not supposed to affect their value.
   86. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3713738)
and my response is that I don't think there is any player in baseball I would trade Colby straight up for, forget part of a package)

Heyward?
   87. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:30 PM (#3713740)
OT, but Snapper, can you remind me the name of the guy you wanted for our bet, and the text you wanted?
Thanks!
   88. Darren Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:46 PM (#3713742)
And a lot of us think the Red Sox prospects are grossly over-rated b/c of the "OMG Theo Epstein is who I want to grow up to be", "$100M player development machine" hype. And Hoyer is very likely to be one of those who buys into that hype.


It's like you guys are trying to prove my point.
   89. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:49 PM (#3713745)
I agree that Rasmus is a more valuable "headliner" than KC can expect to get in exchange for two non-cheap years of Greinke, but, jeez. Just to pick on the most obvious guy, how about Longoria? Yeah, you don't have to pay Rasmus much for the next couple of years, but then you do have to pay him, right? (Assuming he doesn't want to leave, that is...) Whereas you know for sure that you have Longoria for $12.5M for the next three years, and $42.5M for the next six.


Probably. (I haven't looked at all the contracts in baseball, so it was a quick statement)

Heyward?

on the board I posted it, I said not even Heyward or Posey I have reconsidered to an extent, but even with the extra year, I'm not sure corner vs center justifies it. (they are both tough calls in my opinion--the extra games over posey is the only real reason knock that deal down)
   90. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 18, 2010 at 09:58 PM (#3713749)
I'll never really understand this phenomenon (I partake in it also; no innocence here). Whenever a fan of any team proposes specific players in a trade scenario, he's immediately smacked around. And sometimes accused of wishcasting to boot.
You cut out the very specific criticism - Joba is arb-eligible, which makes him very unlikely to have value for the Royals. If you disagree with that, disagree with it, don't tell me I'm being part of a general irrationality.
   91. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:01 PM (#3713752)
on the board I posted it, I said not even Heyward or Posey I have reconsidered to an extent, but even with the extra year, I'm not sure corner vs center justifies it. (they are both tough calls in my opinion--the extra games over posey is the only real reason knock that deal down)


Riiiiight.

ITT: cardsfanboy earns his name.
   92. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:10 PM (#3713754)
on the board I posted it, I said not even Heyward or Posey I have reconsidered to an extent, but even with the extra year, I'm not sure corner vs center justifies it. (they are both tough calls in my opinion--the extra games over posey is the only real reason knock that deal down)

Heyward is three years younger than Rasmus. They had pretty much the same OPS+ but Heyward's OBP was 30 points higher. Much bigger upside in my opinion.
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:15 PM (#3713755)
Heyward is three years younger than Rasmus. They had pretty much the same OPS+ but Heyward's OBP was 30 points higher. Much bigger upside in my opinion.


agreed on all point, Heyward is going to be one of those guys putting up 150+ ops+ during his prime, Colby is pretty much where he is going to be, his defensive numbers will come around but he's not going to be the hitter that Heyward will be. It's all about the position, to me a 130ops+ centerfielder is as valuable (if not more so) than a 150 ops+ corner outfielder.
   94. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3713761)
agreed on all point, Heyward is going to be one of those guys putting up 150+ ops+ during his prime, Colby is pretty much where he is going to be, his defensive numbers will come around but he's not going to be the hitter that Heyward will be. It's all about the position, to me a 130ops+ centerfielder is as valuable (if not more so) than a 150 ops+ corner outfielder.


We are talking about the same guy who had to put up a .354 BaBiP to hit .276, right? The same guy who had an 89 OPS + last year, and hit .250 with low power in AAA in 2008? The same guy who was a negative fielder defensively? The same guy whose coach can't wait to get rid of?

THAT is the guy that you would turn down Heyward or Posey for?
   95. Dale Sams Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3713763)
I'm sticking to Gardner/Joba. Yanks don't like it, tough!

As for the hypothetical Red Sox offers...that's a lot of value for a guy who may just be what he showed last year. (Unless he was hurt, and I didn't know about it)

edit: As for Red Sox/Yankee my #### for your shinola trades....Masterson (??) for Victor Martinez? I admit, I don't know who the other guys were or if they'll turn into anything. At least the Rangers got David Murphy and Engel Beltre out of Gagme.
   96. Jick Posted: December 18, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3713776)
Nobody can offer Moore more former Braves than the Braves.


Sure, but as far as prospects go they're almost out of guys who were around when Moore was who still have upside, aren't they?

I wouldn't give up Teheran, even for Greinke. Delgado or Vizcaino, okay. But either way, aren't the Braves over budget for next year? Or did the playoff appearance give them some more money to play with?
   97. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 18, 2010 at 11:49 PM (#3713797)
OT, but Snapper, can you remind me the name of the guy you wanted for our bet, and the text you wanted?
Thanks!


It was Pasqua or Monteleone, depending on how mch you wanted to spend.

You can do whatever you want with the text. Just no insulting of me or the Yankees :-)
   98. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3713799)
We are talking about the same guy who had to put up a .354 BaBiP to hit .276, right? The same guy who had an 89 OPS + last year, and hit .250 with low power in AAA in 2008? The same guy who was a negative fielder defensively? The same guy whose coach can't wait to get rid of?

THAT is the guy that you would turn down Heyward or Posey for?


Yep. Posey is a catcher, so you are talking about a 130 games a year player, and Heyward is a corner outfielder. I'm not understanding you completly though, is Posey a legitimate 130 ops+ guy because of what he did in 2/3 of a season last year, but Rasmus who is 6months older, is not even though he did the same thing last year?

Heyward is harder to turn down because of the age.

Rasmus defensive problems mostly stem from his arm, which is fixable.
   99. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance) Posted: December 19, 2010 at 12:02 AM (#3713805)
It was Pasqua or Monteleone, depending on how mch you wanted to spend.

You can do whatever you want with the text. Just no insulting of me or the Yankees :-)


Dan Pasqua has a message in a couple days--or whenever they approve it.
   100. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 19, 2010 at 01:11 AM (#3713828)
I booed Paul O'Neill because he wore Dan Pasqua's number.
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