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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Goold: A modest proposal to improve Hall of Fame voting | Derrick Goold: Bird Land | stltoday.com

Goold retweeted this yesterday. I like the idea.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 22, 2020 at 06:00 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2020 at 06:26 AM (#5918134)
Unless someone's getting chopped up and grilled, I'm not clicking.
   2. Rennie's Tenet Posted: January 22, 2020 at 07:46 AM (#5918143)
Five year old article about eliminating the ten-player limit. It looks like the next obvious first ballot guy is Adrian Beltre in 2024, is that right?
   3. JRVJ Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5918310)
This is a good idea, but I'm pretty sure that nothing like this will happen until and when Bonds and Clemens are off the ballot (and perhaps until and when A-Rod is off the ballot, though I'm not entirely sure if A-Rod is going to be treated the same way as Bonds and Clemens have been treated).
   4. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5918314)
I'm not entirely sure if A-Rod is going to be treated the same way as Bonds and Clemens have been treated)
Are you saying he might get more support, or less?
   5. Flynn Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5918317)
I suspect less, as his foibles came after PED testing. Manny Ramirez seems like a good test case for that idea, since he's a clear as day Hall of Famer without the PED suspensions.
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5918319)
That would be my guess as well.
   7. JRVJ Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5918347)
4, actually, I think A-Rod may get more support than Bonds and Clemens.

The electorate has changed significantly since Bonds and Clemens made it on the ballot and it keeps on changing. While A-Rod has that year suspension, that was late enough in his career that he can reasonably be seen as a shoo-in way before the PED suspension.

Plus, A-Rod has managed to relaunch himself as a semi-likeable guy in his retirement. That'll help him.
   8. RJ in TO Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5918360)
While A-Rod has that year suspension, that was late enough in his career that he can reasonably be seen as a shoo-in way before the PED suspension.
A-Rod admitted to using PEDs from 2001 to 2003, which was nowhere near late in his career.
   9. Cris E Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5918363)
There's an admitted and punished thing with him that B and C don't have. It counts for a lot in public perception.
   10. JRVJ Posted: January 22, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5918364)
8, right, but he wasn't suspended for usage earlier in his career.

He was suspended for usage much later in his career.
   11. RJ in TO Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5918368)
But how does his suspension late in his career for PEDs help with the impression he was a shoo-in before the suspension, when he admitted to use well before what he was actually suspended for? I don't understand the reasoning, unless you think he was already a HOFer before his admitted use from 2001, and believe he only started using the exact moment he signed with the Rangers.
   12. JRVJ Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5918372)
Because he admitted using from 2001 through 2003, had a ton of superstar seasons before 2001 and from 2004 until the years covered by his suspension.

Look at his 2005 or 2007 seasons.

His 2009 season, including his tremendous post-season, also look very impressive in retrospect.

And his post-suspension 2015 also looks nice on his ledger.

Mind you, I could be wrong and A-Rod could be black balled. I just don't read the facts the same way you do.
   13. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:27 PM (#5918374)
a HOF without Rose, Clemens, Bonds and ARod is starting to get ridiculous.
   14. RJ in TO Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5918386)
Mind you, I could be wrong and A-Rod could be black balled. I just don't read the facts the same way you do.
I think you're right, in that we just don't read the facts the same way. I'm expecting most writers will just assume, since he admitted to 2001 to 2003 and also got suspended for the later use, that he was using in all the other seasons as well and just didn't get caught.
   15. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5918390)
I'm expecting most writers will just assume, since he admitted to 2001 to 2003 and also got suspended for the later use, that he was using in all the other seasons as well and just didn't get caught.
Which is an entirely reasonable (probably the most reasonable) conclusion - at least up until his suspension.
   16. TDF, trained monkey Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5918393)
Manny Ramirez seems like a good test case for that idea, since he's a clear as day Hall of Famer without the PED suspensions.
I don't know about this.

He never won an MVP. Of his 10 most similar batters, 7 combined for 14 MVPs; only Ortiz (who gets special Ortiz credit or something), Sheffield (who'll only get in with a ticket), and Thome didn't win one.

Of those most similar batters, only Thomas, Ortiz, and Thome had larger negative position adjustments; only Thomas and Sheffield had worse dWAR totals.

As for bWAR, he's behind Whitaker and Grich (who got no HOF love), Rolen (who's struggling in voting), and Walker (who got in on his 10th ballot); he's equal to Raines, who got in on his 15th try; and just ahead of a list of guys like Nettles, Lofton, and Evans who got no HOF love.

Finally, there's little narrative other than "Manny being Manny" - he did win the WS MVP in '07, but he also bombed in his 3 other WS appearances - and Ortiz is seen as the true hero of the Bosox WS runs.

To me, he seems more like a guy that would hang around the ballot until things cleared out a bit - maybe this year, maybe next as things have finally cleared out to the point that there are very few truly great players left on the ballot. Or, as a guy who would never get in until maybe the Vet committee.
   17. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5918395)
A-Rod could be black balled


Surely that's no one's business but his own.
   18. RJ in TO Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5918399)
To me, he seems more like a guy that would hang around the ballot until things cleared out a bit - maybe this year, maybe next as things have finally cleared out to the point that there are very few truly great players left on the ballot. Or, as a guy who would never get in until maybe the Vet committee.
For his 10 most similar batters, six went in on the first ballot (Williams, Griffey, Jones, Mantle, Thome, Thomas), two more will go in on their first ballot when eligible (Cabrera, Ortiz), one was still in the early days of the Hall voting but would be a first ballot now (Foxx), and the last is Sheffield with his PED concerns. Absent the PED thing, Manny almost certainly goes in on the first ballot with his 550+ homers and his 0.312/0.411/0.585 line. Also, it's not like he didn't get a lot of MVP attention, as he has 10 Top 10 finishes in the voting, including 9 straight seasons.
   19. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5918401)
he did win the WS MVP in '07


Manny was World Series MVP in 2004, which is kind of an important World Series historically.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5918404)
Manny was Vlad but even more colorful. I think he sails in absent steroid concerns.
   21. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5918406)
To me, he seems more like a guy that would hang around the ballot until things cleared out a bit - maybe this year, maybe next as things have finally cleared out to the point that there are very few truly great players left on the ballot. Or, as a guy who would never get in until maybe the Vet committee.


No chance. Manny Ramirez has a career batting line of .312/.411/.585 with 555 career home runs and 1,831 career RBI. Those latter two numbers are both top-20 all-time. He was a 12-time All-Star. Everybody who made that many All-Star games and isn't associated with betting on baseball or steroids is in the Hall of Fame (note: for some perspective, Albert Pujols has only made 10 All-Star games). A steroid-free (but same statistics) Manny Ramirez is at worst a second-ballot inductee because of the ballot crunch when he debuted.
   22. DanG Posted: January 22, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5918428)
Manny holds the modern record for RBI in a season.

Most RBI in a season past 80 years.

Player         RBI HR   BA Year  Tm
Manny Ramirez  165 44 .333 1999 CLE
Sammy Sosa     160 64 .328 2001 CHC
Vern Stephens  159 39 .290 1949 BOS
Ted Williams   159 43 .343 1949 BOS
Sammy Sosa     158 66 .308 1998 CHC
Juan Gonzalez  157 45 .318 1998 TEX
Alex Rodriguez 156 54 .314 2007 NYY
Joe DiMaggio   155 39 .320 1948 NYY
Tommy Davis    153 27 .346 1962 LAD
Albert Belle   152 49 .328 1998 CHW 
   23. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 22, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5918462)
A-Rod could be black balled

Surely that's no one's business but his own.
Well, at the very least we know he's hung like a...
   24. Skloot Insurance Posted: January 22, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5918488)
To me, (Ramirez) seems more like a guy that would hang around the ballot until things cleared out a bit - maybe this year, maybe next as things have finally cleared out to the point that there are very few truly great players left on the ballot. Or, as a guy who would never get in until maybe the Vet committee.


I can't believe I'm reading this. Ramirez was an *obvious* Hall of Fame talent when he played.

.996 OPS -- 4th highest since integration
.585 SLG -- 5th highest since integration
.411 OBP -- 11th highest since integration
154 OPS+ -- 11th highest since integration
.312 AVG -- 15th highest since integration

Two World Series rings.

The only player who debuted after Ramirez who has a higher OPS+ is Trout.
   25. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5918491)
I can't believe I'm reading this. Ramirez was an *obvious* Hall of Fame talent when he played.

.996 OPS -- 4th highest since integration
.585 SLG -- 5th highest since integration
.411 OBP -- 11th highest since integration
154 OPS+ -- 11th highest since integration
.312 AVG -- 15th highest since integration

Two World Series rings.

The only player who debuted after Ramirez who has a higher OPS+ is Trout.


Yep, 7th all time (forget integration) in negative runs fielding with -128.
   26. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:04 PM (#5918495)
A-Rod has managed to relaunch himself as a semi-likeable guy in his retirement.

He has?
   27. kwarren Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:28 PM (#5918533)
a HOF without Rose, Clemens, Bonds and ARod is starting to get ridiculous.


And no Shoeless Joe, Schilling, Palmeiro, Grich, Whitaker, Dahlen, Lofton, & Andruw Jones, but Rice, Baines, Morris, and a bunch of relief pitchers are in - so that makes up for it.
   28. Skloot Insurance Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5918536)
Yep, 7th all time (forget integration) in negative runs fielding with -128.


Eh, I'm not going to wade into the morass that is defensive statistics. I don't take them at face value.

While Ramirez was not a strong fielder, he was quite literally one of the finest hitters in baseball history.
   29. Howie Menckel Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5918542)
Manny would have sailed in on the first ballot if not for the PED issues, given that RBI total.
if you want to say that would be undeserved because he had such negative defensive value, have at it.

but would have to wait? NO chance
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5918543)

Eh, I'm not going to wade into the morass that is defensive statistics. I don't take them at face value.

While Ramirez was not a strong fielder, he was quite literally one of the finest hitters in baseball history.


Don't debate that, but his defensive ineptitude did reduce his value tremendously... so when you are making claims about him being one of the best hitters of a century and cherry pick stats while ignoring other stats, I'm just not going to leave it alone.

He was a great hitter...not quite as great as Pujols, Bonds, Frank Thomas, over their equivalent 9000 pa, still it's impressive company to be in. The fact that he offered literally zero else is part of the issue.... not a clubhouse leader in fact a cancer in a couple of spots, not a defensive acceptable player, no speed... .literally his entire argument is the bat... which is a good argument, but Dick Allen is out and he offered more, Fred McGriff is out, and he offered more....


If I had a vote, Manny would get my vote, but acting like he's clearly over the line is delusional. (and of course the PED issues pretty much tanked it)
   31. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5918546)
but acting like he's clearly over the line is delusional.


Not nearly as delusional as acting as if he wouldn't have sailed into the Hall on the first ballot.

   32. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:13 AM (#5918624)
but Dick Allen is out and he offered more, Fred McGriff is out, and he offered more....

Ummm, more what?
   33. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5918629)
More bounce to the ounce. Duh!
   34. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5918640)
Don't debate that, but his defensive ineptitude did reduce his value tremendously... so when you are making claims about him being one of the best hitters of a century and cherry pick stats while ignoring other stats, I'm just not going to leave it alone.


Why are we are having this conversation 2 days after Derek Jeter was one vote away from being an unanimous selection.
   35. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 23, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5918644)
Don't debate that, but his defensive ineptitude did reduce his value tremendously...


And yet, for whatever reason, people aren't going to assess the same fielding penalty to David Ortiz that they are to Ramirez, even though when both were on the same team, the Red Sox concluded that having Ramirez in the field would do less damage.
   36. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5918730)
And yet, for whatever reason, people aren't going to assess the same fielding penalty to David Ortiz that they are to Ramirez, even though when both were on the same team, the Red Sox concluded that having Ramirez in the field would do less damage.


Isn't that exactly what they are doing when they say Ortiz was 'just a DH'? Manny has -21.7 dWAR, Ortiz has -20.9. I don't think anyone is going to argue that Ortiz was a better hitter than Ramirez, Ortiz just adds to his good hitting with narrative, whereas Manny trashes his legacy with PED.
   37. "RMc", the superbatsman Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5918733)
Manny belongs for this alone!
   38. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 23, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5918741)
There isn’t any real doubt that without multiple failed drug tests Manny would have sailed into the Hall. Nor is there any doubt that he was a poor fielder, but not to a degree that nullifies his hitting. Most teams would have played Manny at DH a lot, and moved him there permanently at some point. The Red Sox didn’t do that because they had a worse defensive player as their regular DH. It still worked out OK, but if you’re going to ding anyone in Hall of Fame voting, maybe it should be David Ortiz, whose own limitations forced poor Manny to hobble to the outfield in such severe pain that the poor fellow couldn’t even remember which leg was bothering him.
   39. Rally Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5918746)
He never won an MVP.


I still don't understand how he didn't win MVP in 1999. 165 RBI! This is one year after Juan Gonzalez won the MVP for a big RBI total but otherwise was not close to as great a hitter as Manny, and neither one is going to win any points for defense.

Pedro should have won, and Jeter was also ahead of Manny in WAR, but at least Manny was reasonably close to best position player. Ivan Rodriguez won it, so clearly there was pro-Ranger bias at work in that time period.

Juan Gone's 1998 MVP season came with 157 RBI, though he wasn't in the top ten by WAR. Still, 157 RBI is impressive but if you're going to do that why not give it to the guy with 165 next season?

Juan's 1996 is even more bizarre, as his 3.8 WAR was nowhere close. He drove in 144 runs, but didn't even lead the league, Albert Belle did with 148. Plus 3 other guys topped the 140 RBI mark. Including Griffey, who outhomered Juan while playing gold glove center field defense. Should have been him or A-Rod. But I guess voters weren't going to have that since the Mariners won only 85 games and missed the playoffs despite getting all-time great seasons out of SS, CF, and DH plus a 138 RBI year from Jay Buhner. That's what happens when you don't have any pitching. Mike Trout understands.
   40. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5918747)
I doubt Ortiz was any worse than Manny for much of that time. He played DH for the same reasons Edgar did - he was seen as an injury risk and he was willing to (which many other poor-fielding players, such as Giambi and Bonilla, have balked at doing). If the position didn't exist, he'd have played first, just as he did every time they played a WS game on the road, and he would have played it like a typical below-average first baseman.
   41. Rally Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5918748)
Wouldn't have complained one bit if Manny won in 1999 just for the RBI. Say what you will about the problems of the stat, but last time anyone topped that was 1938.
   42. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5918753)
Ivan Rodriguez won it, so clearly there was pro-Ranger bias at work in that time period.


That was during the AL West dominance of the award (nine straight years the winner came from baseball's smallest division).

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