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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 26, 2011Goold: ‘Rarity’ Fielder remains unsignedInside the Boras Binder on Prince Fielder (“It’s NOT a cookbook!”...Graeme Lloyd Bochner stares in total disbelief).
Repoz
Posted: December 26, 2011 at 01:43 PM | 67 comment(s)
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1. Banta Posted: December 26, 2011 at 02:47 PM (#4023473)EDIT: Ryan Howard. Not sure about anyone else.
Incorrect. There is also Hal Trosky and Boog Powell. Counting all positions, there are 26 players to hit 200 HR by age 27. In addition to Trosky and Powell, there are also non HOFers Strawberry, Canseco, Dunn, Colavito, and Juan Gone.
"Only three Hall of Fame first basemen had as many as 200 home runs by the age of 27: Jimmie Foxx, Orlando Cepeda and Killebrew. Fielder has 230."
If you don't look closely, you might think that only 3 guys have done it, and all are in the Hall of Fame. But that would be wrong.
I'd laugh at Boras, but too many GMs seem dumb enough to fall for the contrived end points and minimums.
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 2007 to 2011, (requiring HR>=200 and RBI>=500), sorted by greatest Batting Average
Rk Player BA HR RBI
1 Prince Fielder .285 200 565
2 Ryan Howard .266 204 647
I assume Trosky and Powell are the other two guys Boras didn't mention.
All joking/fact checking aside, are there GM's that actually fall for this? Or is it just show for Fielder?
Create the illusion that Prince is an elite talent and the sports-radio fan base might by into it. A GM might then be willing to spend more on him either to put more fans in the seats, or at least keep people happy for his own job security. Three years down the road when Prince is not worth his contract is...well, three years down the road.
no.
That's the 4. And Gehrig isn't one of them. He had 187, fewer than Trosky, Powell, and Eddie Murray who also wasn't mentioned.
Well, yeah, but Boras's binders are for presenting to the teams, not for sending out as press releases. I did not RTFA, so I don't know if this one was leaked or published or what.
Rizzo's justification at the time seemed to boil down to "We had to overpay the bejeezus out of someone in order to show other players, who are actually good, that we're serious so they will consider us in the future."
That's different than the quote, which was:
Not sure about Gehrig. Perhaps Boras miscounted by a year. Gehrig did turn 31 on June 19, 1931, and on that day he hit his 199th home run, so perhaps Boras felt that was close enough, but that still doesn't get him to 230, which was what was quoted.
Well, what it is is a quote presumably referencing the bullet point about there being only 4 firstbasemen with 200 HR by age 27. The bullet point states the 4, Fielder being one, and then a statement from Boras talks about the list being only 4 guys and mentions Gehrig. The fact is, there are 6 firstbasemen with 200 HR by age 27: Fielder, Cepeda, Killebrew, Foxx, Torsky, and Powell. Murray has 198, and Gehrig has 187.
Either Gehrig doesn't belong in the conversation, or Trosky, Powell, and Murray do as well. And FWIW, Killebrew was not a firstbaseman through age 27. he had more games at 3B and the OF.
Actually, it's both. Boras has it right* in the fact found in the binder (presumably it wasn't cleaned up by Goold after Boras presented it). But then he screws that up in the quoted portion.
* Right being a rather weak way of describing it, since Boras presented the factoid in a way that lumps Fielder only with Hall of Fame first basemen, rather than all first sackers who hit 200 homers by age 27.
That is an odd statistic. I'm not familiar with the ESPN data on HR velocity. I suppose the question is whether "higher velocity" HRs somehow correlates with less decline in future HRs or perhaps even less age-related decline in annual HRs. I haven't seen any studies of that issue. But a hypothesis of that kind seems plausible. I have seen people use the "no doubt" vs. "just enough" category of HRs as an indicator of the liklihood that future HR totals will decrease. It seems like HR velocity might be a more precise way of measuring those categories. Then again, Boras doesn't seem to be using the data for that purpose.
Ah, you're right about that. I missed that it was worded specifically to exclude any non-HOFer who hit 200 HR by age 27.
No matter how you slice the data Fielder isn't a 5 win player. Yet Boras is asking some GM to pay him not only as though he was one, but that he is going to remain one--remain something he's not-- until Fielder is is 35.
That's funny stuff.
Boras uses data the way a drunk uses a lamppost; for support rather than illumination.
Yet, against all odds, they always fall into the hands of the media. I am shocked!
Anyway, time for the annual parade of "Boras is being silly" posts to be followed by his client getting a $150 M contract. It's one of the earliest signs of spring.
Seriously, what's the average salary of the guys Boras has done books for? I'm guessing it's around $21 M.
Do you really want to use this as a basis for a long-term, high dollar contract?
Cepeda - after his age 32 season, he totalled 1095 PA, with a 114 OPS+
Foxx - after his age 33 season, he totalled 617 PA (over 3 seasons) with a 96 OPS+
Killebrew was still effective until he was 37, but as Meatloaf might have said "One out of three ain't good".
Which is exactly his job. He's an advocate, not an analyst.
I guess my point is that I only remember seeing specific "leaks" of these books for A-Rod and now Fielder. Maybe I'm either not paying attention or simply forgetting.
EDIT: I would have shown my work, if I could figure out how to post a table that doesn't take up an acre of webpage.
The other interesting question: Luzinski and Hrbek each are roving along at a 130 OPS+ pace. Each has one sub 100 OPS+ year at age 33 and then is out of baseball. I know they had no defensive value but did every team just pass on the opportunity for a comeback year, or were they really done?
I don't know about Bull, but I think Hrbek himself didn't have the interest in continuing to play.
Luzinski's bat had also slowed way down and he no longer had any real usefulness to a baseball team, given that he had negative defensive value. Although to be fair he could have been injured at this point, I honestly don't remember. Even when he was young and healthy all of Luzinski's value was in his hitting ability.
I'm fairly sure it was this game, which was televised on ABC.
Player WAR/pos OPS+ Rfield PA HR RBI BB IBB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Jim Thome 23.6 147 -29 3153 163 471 519 37 711 .289 .409 .549 .958
Prince Fielder 19.9 143 -48 4210 230 656 566 115 779 .282 .390 .540 .929
The ones for Fielder aren't bad but only one player has a higher OPS+ and that's Straw at 146. Fielder's OBP is 19 points higher than the next highest in the list and 30 points higher than the average. Although this is a high-K era, his K-rate would rank 4th. As a hitter, he might be the best player on that list.
Murray is a major outlier but I'm too lazy to figure it without him but looking just at ABs sells the career-length short as these comps average about 4000 more PA. That's 6-6.5 more seasons -- that's not shabby. Take out Murray completely and it's probably closer to 3500.
Further, each of these guys (except Tex) were still playing at age 33. At this point, except for Murray, they weren't playing very often but everybody but Luzinski and Gonzalez had at least a full season of PAs left in them and, other than Luzinski, the 33+ OPS+ range from 110 to 127 which isn't good but isn't a waste.
I'm finding it surprisingly hard to find good career comps for Fielder using P-I so I've focussed on his age 25-27 stats. This list seems reasonably promising, even after limiting it to bad fielders. Here's a nice range (not meant to be representative), ages 25-27 (1500+ PA, 145+ OPS+, 370+ OBP, 50% at 1B/LF/RF/DH):
Killebrew: 263/374/569, 149 OPS+, -11 Rfield (mostly 1B and LF those years)
Fielder: 287/409/547, 155 OPS+, -19 Rfield
Thome: 297/429/592, 159 OPS+, -19 Rfield
So he fits comfortably in the middle there.
Others on the negative fielding side are Manny, McGriff, Belle, Thomas, Luzinski and Allen. So that's 5 durables, 1 un-durable (Luzinski) and 2 head cases (one with a degenerative hip or whatever it was). Thomas (especially) and Allen were significantly better hitters 25-27 than Fielder. But he's practically the spitting image of McGriff: 282/298/517, 155 OPS+, -8 Rfield. Two contemporaries are Votto (161 OPS+, -2 Rfield) and Cabrera (149 OPS+, -7 Rfield) and nobody seems too worked up about those guys falling off cliffs. And I wouldn't have guessed that Fielder out-OPS'd Cabrera at those ages, with higher OBP.
Even looking at the worst cases from age 28-33:
Belle, 4100 PA, 146 OPS+
Luzinski, 3200 PA, 119 OPS+
Allen, 3100 PA, 154 OPS+
As worst-case scenarios go, that ain't too shabby. And McGriff: 3700 PA, 133 OPS+. Fred wasn't so good 31-33 (or 34 or 36) but found the fountain of youth for 35 and 37 (140 OPS+s).
Of course it makes no sense to sign Fielder for 10 years. It likely makes no sense to sign anybody for 10 years except maybe Mike Trout. :-) But the FA market seems to work along the basis of "if I think I'm likely to get a good 5 years, I'll sign the guy for 6-7". Yes, that seems very odd, but there it is. Based on these comps, Fielder is a relatively decent bet for a 7-year contract. Obviously makes more sense for an AL team.
The man hits. He's a good bet to hit for another 5-6 years at least.
If a player is not a great bet to hit his contract's value, AND is turning into a liability in the field, that's not a player I want to commit to into his mid30s. He's similar to Reyes in a sense. Reyes would have to be healthy to justify his deal (if you do a BABIP adjusted WAR with something like an 8-5-3-2 four year projection base), given that his fielding is falling off--at SS he's been roughly the equivalent of Fielder at 1B. If Reyes was still an average fielding SS, though, he'd be a good bet to be worth the 6/111 he got, even WITH his health problems. His fielding, though, is what rates to make that deal all but impossible for the Marlins to break even on, which is generally the most you can reasonably hope for with the expensive guys.
Fielder on the other hand has the great health record, but his fielding is trending to the point where it's a fair bet to combine with his inevitable hitting decline to turn him into a 2 win player. He just doesn't have the fielding record to support an 8 year deal, and probably not 7, not at a 25m AAV. 6 years? Sure. It's still risky to give 6/150 to a player entering his decline phase who'd have to hold his value through his age 33 season, but you have to take risks to get upper tier FAs. Guys like Fielder don't get 6 years, though, even when the Yankees and Red Sox are out of the running. They get at least 7 with an option, and the team that signs him to that is going to regret it some.
Oliver Perez was a doozy.
edit: "Oliver Perez was a doozy." Hooboy. That was... something. Watching the Mets sabotage their season by running Maine and Perez out there when it was obvious they couldn't pitch was painful.
It'd be interesting to see a summary of agents, their clients, WARs, and salaries. I wonder who'd be getting teams the least bang for their buck.
Fielder will get a contract that is commensurate with the market, simple as that.
Outrageous.
IIRC there have been recent studies around this issue for pitchers like Sabathia that concluded that it was a non-issue.
Here are some members of your dataset / suggested comps, sorted by body mass index (BMI), using height/weight data supplied by BB-REF. I do not know how variable the listed heights and weights were over the course of these players' careers, obviously; that is why I include Babe Ruth as an example.
Player WAR/pos BMI OPS+ Ht Wt
Prince Fielder 14.3 38.4 155 71 275
Jim Thome 14.8 31.2 159 75 250
Manny Ramirez 16.5 30.5 154 72 225
Miguel Cabrera 14.7 29.2 149 76 240
Greg Luzinski 13.4 29.0 149 73 220
Frank Thomas 18.3 28.5 187 77 240
Babe Ruth 33.1 27.6 228 74 215
Joey Votto 16.9 27.5 161 75 220
Harmon Killebrew 12.5 26.4 149 72 195
Dick Allen 14.3 26.1 166 71 187
Albert Belle 12.3 25.1 150 73 190
Fred McGriff 15.2 25.0 155 75 200
***
See, I actually said, What is it about the mere mention of UZR, with caveats, that brings out the moron in people?
Ya think?
[24] Yet, against all odds, they always fall into the hands of the media. I am shocked!
This ESPN story clarifies that question, and has a picture of the Boras binder as described in TFA.
The same story also described their utility.
This is either the Barry Zito signing or the Oliver Perez signing.
Player G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB
Fielder A 323 1406 1147 189 321 61 1 70 203 2 1 221 244 0.280 0.408 0.518 0.925 149 594 29 31 0 7 49
Fielder B 321 1385 1197 206 322 50 1 95 265 0 1 168 333 0.269 0.362 0.551 0.912 149 659 32 11 0 9 23
EDITed for formatting
Here Amazin' Avenue suggests some weaknesses in Boras's logic
NYTimes's Jay Schreiber revisits the book 28 months later.
This is a hilarious and disturbing quote. I'm never going to be able to read accounts of GMs poring over scouting reports in an innocent way again.
[50] If the GM thinks its crap, why did he give it to the owner without providing his analysis as well? Doesn't sound like a healthy owner/GM relationship.
The quoted GM isn't the same as the one who gave it to the owner. There's nothing that says that the GM in that situation thought it was garbage stats work. It's possible that the GM thought it was crazy but the owner heard about Boras' binders and asked the GM for a copy.
By fWAR he's been a 5.1/year WAR player over the past 3 years, so that's one way of slicing the data to make him a 5 WAR player. By Fans projections he's going to be a 5.7 WAR player in 2012. While it's possible to argue about whether fWAR is better than rWAR or whatever, but to say that he's inarguably not a 5 WAR player isn't true.
Second, Fielder doesn't have to be a 5 Win player at age 35 to make his contract worthwhile. He just has to average enough wins over the life of the contract to make it worthwhile, and that may be a $5M/win or some other number.
Third, if he focuses say 17 WAR into 3 of the seasons and gets 4 WAR total in the other 3 the contract is still arguably worthwhile if the 17 help the team get into the playoffs, and the 4 do not prevent the team from getting in. Peak matters no matter what Dave Cameron says.
I can see $25m/year being a reasonable risk for a big budget team which projects at 88-93 Wins or something without Fielder and has no 1B. Then you have a good team turn into a World Series contender. The only such teams I can think of are the Blue Jays and Rangers, although the Rangers are a World Series contender even without Fielder. Neither has an idiot for a GM. I think he has a decent chance at approaching 6/$150 if not actually reaching it.
Ryan Howard's contract, for instance, is certainly not commensurate with the market.
Not at all. The young Sandy Koufax, along with the young Roberto Clemente are the shyster agent's best friends. Yeah, most GM's will laugh you out of the room, but it only takes one to bite, and agents have notoriously thick skins.
Boras does this for a lot of clients, I remember when his Damon book was leaked... the GM who leaked it told the reporter that he assumed it was done mostly to stoke the players' ego, but you never know...
The idea that what a player actually gets is an accurate reflection of "market" value is a bizarre one.
Mistakes are always made- up and down. Let's say you have 10 equivalent 1Bs, and all are FAs, the mean average salary those 10 get is probably a fairly good proxie of the market value of any one of them - but we know that some will get more and some will get less- 1 or 2 might get a lot more or a lot less- a player or team may sign too early before really seeing how the market is going to play out- and then sign for too little or too much, or a player or team may wait too long and find their options shrink- mis-evaluation plays a roll as well- if 2 or more GMs regard a player too highly the odds are that guy is going to get too much.
Another thing, didn't anyone here ever play auction league fantasy baseball? If everyone is an FA, most everyone goes at or near market save for a few outliers- in keeper leagues where everyone is signed at or below market is OFF the market (think pre-FA players)- a concept called draft inflation kicks in- literally everyone GOOD in the market gets paid more than they are "worth." For "good" MLB FAs, the MLB FA market is a great example of draft inflation in effect.
1. Make the client feel like Boras is doing everything possible.
2. Leak to the media so that the fans go nuts.
3. Provide the signing GM with a bunch of good stats to throw at the media during the press conference.
Well, Braun's a natural for Derpy.
Sure, why not?
For something so rare, there sure seems to be an awful lot of him.
I wish the A's could find even one.
Over the last 3 years, Fielder's 155 OPS+ ties him for 5th (Bautista), a mere 1 point behind A Gonzalez and 8 points ahead of Braun (who's also a poor defensive player at a more athletic position). Sure, in two of those years he hit like Cabrera and in the middle year he hit like Ryan Howard (20th best). There are worse problems to have.
And if you had Matt Holliday tied for 7th with Ryan Braun at 147, you win today's BBTF Grand Prize!
I don't expect Fielder to get the kind of contract folks here are speculating about. Remember, until the Angels swooped in, nobody was offering Pujols anything better than 10/$200. I don't think anybody sees Fielder as being better than Pujols. I think, at most, he'll get a Gonzalez-ish 7/$161. Given that, and especially if it's lower, I wouldn't be shocked to see Boras go for something shorter at higher AAV so that he can hit FA again young enough or at least try to get an opt-out after 3-4 years.
Perez thru 26: 999 IP, 9.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 96 ERA+, BABIP 289
Randy thru 28: 818 IP, 9.0 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 101 ERA+, BABIP 275
In his age 27 and 28 seasons, Johnson walked over 6 per 9 which isn't as bad as Perez at 27-28 but was going the wrong direction. The BABIP diff is mainly due to Johnson having a career-best 250 at age 26; at ages 24, 27 and 28 he ranged from 280 to 289. That career-best BABIP was partly due to a career-worst HR rate (gave up about 20 fewer hits, gave up about 10 more HR). But the big difference between them was HR rate (about .4-.5 per 9).
Or ..
Perez thru 26: 999 IP, 9.2 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 96 ERA+, BABIP 289
Ryan 21 - 26: 1117 IP, 9.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 112 ERA+, BABIP 259, .5 HR/9
Definitely legit reasons for the ERA+ difference and that K-rate was even more impressive in that era. Still, Ryan's walk rate went UP for ages 27-31 (5.8 BB/9).
Perez also wasn't that different than Mark Langston (though he had his breakout season at 26) or Gio Gonzalez (who just brought a nice haul in trade). Definitely a worse pitcher than Sam McDowell, definitely a better pitcher than Scott Kazmir (because Perez's arm was still attached after age 26! otherwise he was worse). Similar to Juan Guzman (frustrating but 943 IP of 105 ERA+ after 26). Similar to Chan Ho Park (again, not flattering, but 1269 IP of 96 ERA+).
Point being that the numbers aren't going to be a good guide as to which wild youngster is going to suddenly learn control and which one won't and which one simply won't survive. Perez's outcome was rarer and less predictable than we like to pretend now. Which is not to deny that lots of people were predicting disaster but lots of people predict disaster with every FA signing (and I'm usually one of them).
Would have been fun to see the debate around here if we existed and Nolan Ryan had become an FA in 1973 (that BABIP is unsustainable!)
Interesting (to me)--the author also plays around with the 4.5-5.0 win line.
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