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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, April 22, 2022HALL OF FAME RESTRUCTURES ERA COMMITTEE, FRICK AWARD VOTING
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: April 22, 2022 at 12:34 PM | 36 comment(s)
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1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 22, 2022 at 01:36 PM (#6073091)The Golden ERa ballot last December (which would now be part of Classic Baseball) loaded up on nominees - Minoso, Buck O'Neil, Kaat, Olica, Hodges, and Bud Fowler.
Dick Allen was a vote short, and I would think is first in line in December of 2024. I mean, in terms of the Classic group, it cannot get bigger - it is capped by the end date - and I'd be curious who people here would reasonably put "above the line" from this pre-1980 era besides Dick Allen. Tiant? Ken Boyer? Tommy John?
For the 1980-present group, there's a whole bunch of players we'll be debating for the next 20 years, but I hope Lou Whitaker is the first one in.
OK, so we know the 16-or-more-seasons-retired thing keeps Bonds/Clemens off this ballot (EDIT - Didn't see Jose's correction in #4). One would have needed to retire before the 2007 season. If I looked this up correctly the eligible players for that ballot includes the following from BB-Ref's career WAR leader list:
Lou Whitaker
Rafael Palmeiro
Kevin Brown
Dwight Evans
Buddy Bell
Willie Randolph
David Cone
Mark McGwire
Keith Hernandez
Bret Saberhagen
Darrell Evans
John Olerud
Chuck Finley
Frank Tanana
Will Clark
Dave Stieb
Robin Ventura
Orel Hershiser
Chet Lemon
Jose Cruz
Bobby Grich's contributions are almost certainly centered prior to 1980. Either of the Evanses played alongside Grich for much of his career but received MVP votes mostly after 1980 and would likely be considered 1980s players. Same for Cruz, although folks might still think of him as a 1970s player. Cruz is below the David Ortiz WAR line, as are all eligible players not listed (such as Dwight Gooden).
FWIW Kenny Lofton and David Wells retired after the 2007 season, so they just barely miss qualifying for this ballot.
Bill Dahlen
Dick Redding (they passed over both of them in this summer's induction)
Grant Johnson
Quincy Trouppe
Stan Hack
Luis Tiant
Dick Allen
Dobie Moore
Wes Ferrell
Reggie Smith
Charlie Keller
Sherry Magee
Jimmy Sheckard
Bill Freehan
Billy Pierce
John Beckwith
Dick Lundy
Jim Wynn
Alejandro Oms
Ken Boyer
Bob Johnson
Urban Shocker
Bert Campaneris
Bucky Walters
Norm Cash
Bus Clarkson
Gavy Cravath
Johnny Pesky
Wally Schang
Don Newcombe
Tommy Leach
And the other really early players
Paul Hines
Charlie Bennett
Jack Glasscock
Heinie Groh
Ross Barnes
Joe Start
Dickey Pearce
Bob Caruthers
George Gore
Harry Stovey
Cupid Childs
Pete Browning
Lip Pike
Rick Reuschel
Graig Nettles
Kevin Appier
I don't know which side of the line for Tommy John, Dave Concepcion and Bobby Grich.
Any conjecture? Behavior seems really odd. And this doesn't even account for MLB constantly talking about hey how do we get younger fans? Maybe do something kind of interesting like inducting Mike Trout into HOF now versus talking about some guy who played 60 years ago, is likely dead, his family may not exist either so like nobody cares except the person who wrote his SABR bio??
See, the beauty of inducting these old guys is that fewer people realize they're a mistake. Like if they inducted Jason Giambi, it would be laughable, but Orlando Cepeda? His numbers may not be any better than Giambi's but he had mystique or whatever.
Bill Dahlen is a pretty glaring omission and yet they keep passing over him.
I would guess they will also consider a handful of candidates from outside MLB altogether - people like Bill James and Sean Forman who occupy positions that didn't really exist before 1980. They haven't really inducted anyone like that since Henry Chadwick, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple in the next few years.
So nobody gets cut off until at least 2036...
Er, Giambi's stats aren't primarily what's keeping him out of the Hall of Fame.
John's an interesting one. Most of his pitching prowess was in the 1970s, especially late. But he is renowned significantly for his post-surgery longevity, and the bulk of that was the 1980s. I'd tend to put him pre-1980, but I think a case could be made either way.
2. I'm sure this is more effort to keep PED guys off. Just because they are currently eligible doesn't mean they will actually be on ballot this year and then they won't be eligible for a while.
3. The change to 3 votes implies they aren't happy with how many old timers are going in which is a bit odd since the writers are going to go through a real dry spell for a while.
4. And.....my boy Keith Hernandez looks to be screwed
It will be interesting to see how they handle the guys with steroid taint. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a ballot with David Cone but not Roger Clemens. Mark Grace gets elected, but not Mark McGwire.
In recent years they've inducted Harold Baines, Lee Smith, Jack Morris and Tony Oliva.
Others I'm cheering on this upcoming election would be...
Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans, Will Clark
For those 4 it really depends on who is doing the voting - if they are stats savvy or from Detroit then Sweet Lou should finally get in, with Darrell Evans (won a HR title as a Tiger at age 38) having a good shot.
No chance: Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire (we all know why), and Kevin Brown (disliked by many it seems and has strong PED rumors)
I'd love to see as a Jays fan but know they won't make it...
David Cone, John Olerud, Dave Stieb
If Robin Ventura makes it they should have Nolan Ryan greet him with a fake punch :)
Now, if they put Tony LaRussa on the panel then McGwire has a shot, but I hope not - I was disgusted when he got in so easily when he managed McGwire for most of his career, along with Canseco early on (steroid rumors were very strong from day one for him). I see it as bad when the guy who probably encouraged it gets in but the guys who did it don't.
1) Are there any of them that, if elected, you would go to the induction weekend because of them?
2) Who could be selected from these committees that would be the biggest draw for Cooperstown on induction weekend?
For me, as a big Red Sox fan who lives about a five-hour drive from Cooperstown, I'd say Dwight Evans would probably get me to go. If Bonds and/or Clemens got in, I'd be tempted to go just to see what it would be like. I may be forgetting others, but that's probably about it.
As for question #2, I'd imagine Boomer-aged Yankees fans would be a pretty good audience for somebody like Nettles or Randolph. Boomer Red Sox fans (who, like Yankees fans, generally live within a reasonable drive) might be into Dwight Evans and Luis Tiant. Any of the big PED guys might draw a crowd for curiosity, if nothing else. Maybe Whitaker (especially if combined with Freehan or Cash) would get a good Detroit crowd?
Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans
They should elect everybody named Evans just to be on the safe side. (And "Evers", now that I think of it.)
It seems the pre-committee (or Selection committee) is the driver more than ever. Hernandez can't even get past the section committee (or Grich).
The next round of guys going in are likely Allen, Garvey, Parker and Dwight Evans based on voting patterns recently
THe 72, 73 As have 7 which is about what you would expect for a pennant winner. THe 74 As have 7 guys at 4+ which is exceptional.
The 71 PIT has 6, 79 PIt has 7 (allowing for Moreno at 2.9)
72 CIN has 6; 75 CIN has 7. 76 CIN has 7 and Geronimo just misses being 8.
76 NYY has 7 (allowing for Gamble who extrapolates to almost 4)
75 BOS has 6 (allowing for Yaz who barely makes 3)
Teams that are stacked: 70 BAL: 9, 71 BAL 10 (extrapolating a little for BLair) 76 NYY 9 77 NYY 10 wow only the modern LAD have that many
The modern LAD are stacked of course. 2021 had 10.
So I dont think the As are really like that. Perhaps because it was a lower scoring era and the As were very strong on pitching and defense. Even the Big Red Machine who we always think of as being stacked is not really exceptional by this measure. I wouldn't have thought the NYY teams were but they are.
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