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Sunday, February 23, 2020

Hamels rejoins Braves, shoulder still healing

NORTH PORT, Fla. (AP) — Cole Hamels rejoined the Atlanta Braves just in time for their spring training opener. The injured left-hander is still a ways off from using the mound at the club’s new spring home, though.

Hamels signed an $18 million, one-year deal with Atlanta this offseason but informed the team just before camp started that he was experiencing shoulder discomfort during training. The 36-year-old was sent to Dallas to get treatment from surgeon Keith Meister.

Now he’s back but says he’s waiting for inflammation in the shoulder “to calm down.” He expects to remain in North Port after Atlanta breaks camp for opening day.

“I know I’m behind the 8-ball,” he said. “But once I knock (the inflammation) out right away, I know I’ll be able to be the best pitcher I can and put up good numbers.



QLE Posted: February 23, 2020 at 12:51 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, cole hamels, shoulder

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   1. bfan Posted: February 23, 2020 at 08:09 AM (#5926058)
What happened to pre-signing physicals?
   2. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 23, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5926065)
Was it Dr Andrews who said that every veteran pitchers has enough arm damage to have him fail a physical if the team want him to? I suspect that it's extremely difficult for a physical to tell the difference between a typically creaky shoulder and a typically creaky shoulder that's about to blow up.
   3. wjones Posted: February 24, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5926197)
From what I originally heard, and AA confirmed this on TV yesterday, his trouble was due to a medicine ball workout that went too far. FWIW.
   4. DanG Posted: February 24, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5926229)
Cole is about three seasons away from having a realistic shot of being elected to the HOF. In the past three years, at ages 33-35, Hamels was 27-25 W-L, 9.7 WAR with a 117 ERA+. If he has the same production from ages 36-38 he'll have these career totals:

68.4 WAR
190 Wins
2994 SO
3175 IP
   5. RJ in TO Posted: February 24, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5926235)
No pitcher of Hamel's era is getting in without 200 wins, unless they have a massive peak, and his career has been remarkably peakless. I know what the advanced stats say, but roughly no one has ever thought of Hamels as a future Hall of Famer.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: February 24, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5926238)
I posted this a few months ago:

Here are the active qualified ERA+ leaders:

Rank Player (yrs, age) Adjusted ERA+ Throws
1. Clayton Kershaw (12, 31) 157 L
2. Jacob deGrom (6, 31) 148 R
3. Chris Sale (10, 30) 140 L
4. Corey Kluber (9, 33) 134 R
5. Max Scherzer (12, 34) 132 R
6. Stephen Strasburg (10, 30) 130 R
7. Justin Verlander (15, 36) 129 R
8. Gerrit Cole (7, 28) 127 R
9. Zack Greinke (16, 35) 125 R
10. Cole Hamels (14, 35) 123 L
David Price (12, 33) 123 L
12. Yu Darvish (7, 32) 122 R
13. Johnny Cueto (12, 33) 121 R
14. Madison Bumgarner (11, 29) 120 L
Jon Lester (14, 35) 120 L
16. Adam Wainwright (14, 37) 118 R
17. Felix Hernandez (15, 33) 117 R
18. Sonny Gray (7, 29) 116 R
CC Sabathia (19, 38) 116 L
20. Lance Lynn (8, 32) 115 R
21. Patrick Corbin (7, 29) 113 L
Tanner Roark (7, 32) 113 R
Masahiro Tanaka (6, 30) 113 R
24. Carlos Carrasco (10, 32) 112 R
25. Jake Arrieta (10, 33) 111 R
Gio Gonzalez (12, 33) 111 L
Jose Quintana (8, 30) 111 L

You could draw several cutoffs here.

To me, an ERA+ of 125 or above is obviously HOF level pitching. Anyone that puts in 13-15 years at this level is in like Flynn. Verlander is there. Grienke is there. Scherzer is just about there. Sale, Kluber and Strasburg still have some work to do but are on pace. (Sabathia peaked at an ERA+ of 125 after his 12th season, by the way)

It seems totally unfair that Hamels/Price/Lester would fall short with an ERA+ so damn close to the other guys, but it still feels like there's a rather definitive cutoff right around there.

An ERA+ of 114 or below is probably in the "not good enough" cutoff. Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark could do what they've been doing for 20 years and they probably wouldn't make it.

Between 125 and 114 the guys that probably need some narrative heft to make a case for Cooperstown.

Now, where is the "10 years of this is enough" cutoff? Obviously, Kershaw was in that bucket when he achieved his 10 years. And just as obviously, if there's a second pitcher that belongs in that bucket, it's deGrom. But one could reasonably draw the line between Kershaw (157 ERA+) and deGrom (148 ERA+), and require more than 10 years of this from deGrom, even supposing he kept this up. Santana peaked at 11 years, 142 ERA+.
   7. DanG Posted: February 24, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5926246)
roughly no one has ever thought of Hamels as a future Hall of Famer
Hyperbole aside, googling "Cole Hamels hall of fame" leads to many links discussing his case for the Hall, so he's in the conversation. Obviously, he's not there yet and he needs a strong finishing kick.

He needs 11.3 WAR to reach 70 for his career; 40 starting pitchers in history have at least 11.3 WAR from ages 36-39, so that's not impossible. If he can do that, along with 200 Wins and 3000 strikeouts, I think he makes it.
   8. Greg Pope Posted: February 24, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5926251)
roughly no one has ever thought of Hamels as a future Hall of Famer

I beg to differ.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: February 24, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5926254)
#6: Time will tell but I think you are under-rating the importance of SP peak in future HoF voting. For example, Scherzer's "10 years of this" was just a 127 ERA+ but it was 3 CYA and 2 top 5s. Given (almost) no pitchers are going to reach 300 wins or 4000 innings (even 3500 will probably be rare), the old standards no longer apply and the modern equivalent of the old standards (say 3200 IP and 200 wins) are simply not awe-inspiring. A sustained period of dominance, even if mixed in with some relaitvely blah years, will be more persuasivve than 15 years of really good -- bearing in mind even 15 years in current usage probably doesn't get you to 3000 innings. I'll also speculate that the career goal of note will be 3,000 Ks and wins won't matter much in future voting.

Halladay just sailed in first ballot with 203 wins, 2750 innings, 2 CYAs nearly all from an awesome 10-year run. That looks an awful lot like a no-doubter resume now not a borderline peak-only case. Scherzer's last two seasons moved him into no-doubter territory, another 308 Ks probably puts him over 90% on his first ballot, so he had to have been at least borderline after 10 years. Anyway, he now has a 7-year run of <1500 IP wit 149 ERA+, 3 CYAs, 4 other top5, 11.3 K/9. That's enough, you don't need 10 years of it. (He's now 8th in career CYA shares.)

There will still be a few career candidates who get through and Hamels has a reasonable shot at that. Meanwhile deGrom probably needs another 2-3 big years -- he's still at just 1100 career IP.

Not that it matters now but this was the argument that might have convinced me to vote for Rivera. Even adjusting for relief being easier, his career numbers would be similar to Scherzer's last 7 and his raw numbers rival Pedro's best 5-6. (And then you could add in his astounding postseason numbers.)
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: February 24, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5926261)
Even adjusting for relief being easier

I hope you had some assistants - or at least a back brace - while making that adjustment because damn is it heavy!
   11. Brian White Posted: February 25, 2020 at 06:15 AM (#5926294)
his trouble was due to a medicine ball workout that went too far

I bet the medicine ball workout was good in the beginning.

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