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Wednesday, April 14, 2021

HARD. FASTER. OMNI. CHATTER. for April 14, 2021

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:00 PM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:08 PM (#6013376)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS WIN TODAY?!
   2. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6013377)
Cubs made a bunch more roster moves today - including reinstating one of the RP from the COVID list without putting anyone else on it (though I'm still suspicious of Hendricks getting scratched yesterday). The "headliner" is they called up Shelby Miller, so there's that.

As if the offense wasn't terrible enough, they're sitting the only two guys with above average OPS+ in Contreras (day game after catching a night game) and Bryant (probably hurt, but hasn't told anyone yet and it'll nag him all year so his hot start will once again go to waste).

BTW, Joc Pederson has a 16 OPS+. 16!!! Eric Sogard is hitting second and his OPS+ is 5. Bote is at 32, Heyward is at 39. Rizzo 54, and Happ 60. Austin Romine's is 71 for his career, and he's making his Cubs debut today. Javy's 97 is HOF worth relative to the rest of this #### lineup. Arrieta hasn't hit well the last few years, but his 89 OPS+ from 2016 would make you think he should be hitting cleanup today.
   3. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6013378)
Christian Arroyo strikes out on a splitter. However, he very clearly fouled the ball off straight into the ground. Umps missed it but hey we have replay so there is no such thing as controversial calls anymore and...oh wait that isn't reviewable for some reason. So an incorrect call that could have been overturned in approximately 6 seconds is allowed to stand.

I don't care. It's the leadoff hitter in an April doubleheader. The Sox won't win or lose because of that but it's just another example of how much replay sucks. Wecan't overturn that obvious error but if a guy comes a millimeter off the base we can spend 4 minutes going frame by ####### frame.
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6013379)
ALL RISE! 2 HRs for Aaron Judge today - only in 4th inning. Developing.
   5. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: April 14, 2021 at 03:09 PM (#6013390)
The Mets are in first place which is somehow surprising me for some reason.
   6. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6013391)

7-inning games really should benefit teams with crappy bullpens like the Mets. They should hope for as many doubleheaders as possible.
   7. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: April 14, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6013400)
Welcome back Shelby...0.0IP, 2H, 3BB, 4ER. Surprised he got to face 5 guys; not watching so I'm guessing they didn't have anyone ready quick enough and they expected him to go more than 1 inning. Oops.

Unrelated, the Cubs only have 2 hits today, with 0 walks and 10ks. Totally expected. Joc is down to .108/.190/.189.
   8. Darren Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6013401)
Eovaldi certainly has been a nice surprise.
   9. Darren Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:17 PM (#6013404)
Christian Arroyo may be a good player.
   10. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6013412)
Joe Ross got the win for the Nationals today with 6 scoreless innings against the Cardinals, following 5 shutout innings in his 1st start. That’s 11 innings, 0 runs, 9 K, 3 BB, and only 6 hits. Could be small sample size, but maybe he’s found something.
   11. JJ1986 Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6013419)
I really don't understand why some teams have to pause when they have to put 5 players on the COVID-IL and some teams get to keep playing.
   12. pikepredator Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6013420)
Agreed on the poor implementation of instant replay when it could be so simple in all sports. If it's obvious, fix it. If it's not, move on.

Seven inning doubleheaders take me right back to going to Vermont Mariner and Vermont Reds games here in Burlington when I was a young lad. Major nostalgia and I like it way more (much like the zombie runner) than I thought I would.

No, I wasn't paying attention to baseball last summer.

This Red Sox April has been a fabulous return to baseball!!
   13. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: April 14, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6013422)
Wowsers. Hell of a finish there in Minnesota.
   14. The Duke Posted: April 14, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6013430)
The cardinals predictably get shut out after scoring 14 runs. I don’t know how we can 5/6 outfielders and none of them can hit. If 38 year old Molina weren’t there, we’d have almost no offense outside of Goldschmidt/Arenado.

Matt carpenter has had one curtain call and two hits this year. Pathetic
   15. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: April 14, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6013431)
That Verdugo catch eerily reminded me of the Benintendi catch from the 2018 ALCS. Awesome win.
   16. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: April 14, 2021 at 05:15 PM (#6013436)

Unrelated, the Cubs only have 2 hits today, with 0 walks and 10ks. Totally expected. Joc is down to .108/.190/.189.


Corbin Burnes now at 30 K's and 0 walks on the season. He also has more RBI's than runs allowed.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: April 14, 2021 at 06:01 PM (#6013445)
At the end of yesterday's chatter, somebody mentioned Aristides Aquino who I'd forgotten about. In the Buxton thread, somebody mentioned Akil Baddoo. Both are off to fast starts, especially on the HR side. I was intrigued to see that, by EV and some other things, neither has actually been that impressive.

Start with Baddoo who's probably just a rule 5 pick having a great 10 games before being really bad for the rest of the season (but you never know). If I added right, he's got 18 contacts, with 4 HRs and 2 other XBH, a HR/FB of 31%. He's got a 44% hard-hit% (league at 40.5% so far) so that's 8 hard-hit (95 MPH or higher) and 10 not. But his average EV is 85 compared with the league average of 88 (which is about where the average has been the last few years). If he's got 8 of 95 or higher then, to get an average around 85, the other 10 must be averaging around 75. Thing is at 85 MPH, you're lucky to hold a job these days; but at 44% hard-hit, you can play for anybody. So either he sucks or he's above-average, which componenent stat do we want to go with.

Now that's just a handful but Aquino is up to 296 career PA now -- still a small sample of course but way more than Baddoo. For his career, he's on about a 50 HR per 650 PA pace and a HR/FB over 24% (Thome was around 20% for comparison). Yet his average EV is 87.5 vs lg average of 88.7; his hard-hit % is 40.3 vs lg average of 39.2 ... so call that overall average. It seems a high %age of his hard hits must be going over the wall (launch angle presumably rather than mega velocity) but still he is generating an awful lot of weak contact too to get that average down to 87. (His K-rate is 28% which is bad but not Gallo extreme.)

I'm not sure I've got a point here other than average EV is not a very useful measure, especially on its own, even in a "here's what happened" way. (It's not news that a mean on its own is often not useful.) It's curious that in Aquino's case, hard-hit % doesn't seem any better -- a 50-HR guy isn't hitting it hard any more frequently than the average hitter? (Using Gallo again, his hard-hit % is 54.) Obviously it's possible that as time goes on, Aquino will either drop off the 50-HR pace or his EV and hard-hit % will go up.

Obviously if you can get your average EV way above-average, it tells us something about how hard you hit the ball. Nelson Cruz is at 94.4 MPH the last few years; Trout is at 92 and to get it up that high, obviously you must have a lot of hard hits and even a fair chunk of your "soft" contact is probably still in the 80-90 range. Then it's largely about Ks (Gallo again with an EV of 93.7). But the variance of Aquino seems pretty extreme unless most of his HRs barely squeak over (which is not my memory of him hitting 5 in 3 games against the Cubs in 2019).

Note I'm using B-R which only gives us EV and hard-hit% from Statcast unless there's a detailed table I don't know about.
   18. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 14, 2021 at 06:17 PM (#6013448)
Vladdy Jr. went 2-for-4 and his OBP dropped.
He's reached base every game this year.

The "best shape of his career" thing might be true in this case.
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 14, 2021 at 06:33 PM (#6013457)
Five Astros - designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, third baseman Alex Bregman, second baseman Jose Altuve, catcher Martin Maldonado and infielder Robel Garcia - are going on the injured list “due to health & safety protocols”. Their game tonight with the Tigers is still on.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: April 14, 2021 at 08:18 PM (#6013464)
I really don't understand why some teams have to pause when they have to put 5 players on the COVID-IL and some teams get to keep playing.

I'm not sure I do either but it could simply be some combination of practicality/this is gonna be worse than we thought. Five players is a lot but once offsites/minor leagues are up and running, bringing in 5 replacements for 3-14 days is not so big of a deal. Now that would have been true coming out of spring training too which is maybe the worse than we thought bit. They shut down the first team or two ... then another outbreak and another outbreak and another outbreak. Cubs and Astros and I see Andrelton just got put on the list and JDM was on the list and ... they may have shifted from shut down to "get through it."

Also, checking the google, apparently the Nats had to put 10 players on which would be disruptive in any circumstance.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: April 14, 2021 at 08:28 PM (#6013466)
7-inning games really should benefit teams with crappy bullpens like the Mets. They should hope for as many doubleheaders as possible.

I suppose, by definition, the more 7-inning games you have, the fewer overall innings you have to cover and therefore the larger proportion of relief innings covered by the top guys. But that's not really gonna matter unless you're playing, what, 20 DHs or something.

In normal circumstances, you're still gonna need 4 innings of relief on that day which will tire your bullpen out for tomorrow's game as much as the run of the mill 9-inning game with a 5-inning start. I suppose maybe it smooths out the "stress" a bit -- you're more likely to have 2 high-leverage and 2 low-leverage innings on DH day which, if you only have 2 relievers you trust in high-leverage, is better than 4 stressful innings in one game. But then you're in trouble if both games of the DH are close. Or if you have 4 guys you trust and every DH is followed by a day off then it's good for you.
   22. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 09:07 PM (#6013471)


I suppose, by definition, the more 7-inning games you have, the fewer overall innings you have to cover and therefore the larger proportion of relief innings covered by the top guys. But that's not really gonna matter unless you're playing, what, 20 DHs or something.


Yes, very true. Basically, if your starters are better than your bullpen, you'd rather have your bullpen only pitching 29% of your innings rather than 44% (or 14% rather than 33%, if your starters go 6). But yeah, it's a pretty marginal benefit.
   23. salvomania Posted: April 14, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6013483)
terrible safe-at-first call in Mets-Phils game that was obviously wrong to the naked eye, in real time. Phils immediately challenge.

let's see what happens

EDIT: Huh, I was wrong, Nimmo was safe. 1B Hoskins fielded ball behind bag, had to race to the bag to beat Nimmo, he slid to the bag but his cleat hit about two inches in front of the bag before his momentum pushed his toe onto the base, by which point Nimmo was safe. In real time the cleat landing clearly beat Nimmo, but I couldn't discern that the toe has stopped short of the bag.
   24. The Honorable Ardo Posted: April 14, 2021 at 09:50 PM (#6013486)
The supposedly woebegone Tigers are taking it to the Astros for the third straight day in Houston.
   25. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:03 PM (#6013487)
might want to watch the indians and white sox. just sayin
   26. Itchy Row Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6013488)
No reason to watch Indians-White Sox. Just a normal blowout with no reason to jinx.
   27. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:42 PM (#6013497)
3 to go. Looks pretty sharp.
   28. Itchy Row Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:44 PM (#6013499)
Routine grounder to first
   29. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:44 PM (#6013500)
Come on, you can’t challenge here. Bush league.
   30. . . . . . . Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6013502)
lolz
   31. Itchy Row Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6013503)
Proving nothing really good will ever happen.
   32. The Duke Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6013504)
Tough way to lose perfecto
   33. The Duke Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:49 PM (#6013506)
I hope he gets no hitter
   34. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:50 PM (#6013507)
didn't Scherzer or someone plunk someone in the 9th and lose a perfecto?
   35. The Duke Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:52 PM (#6013508)
Well it’s not supposed to be easy
   36. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6013510)
shoelaces aside, that was beautiful

the abreu play was out of this world
   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:56 PM (#6013512)
didn't Scherzer or someone plunk someone in the 9th and lose a perfecto?
IIRC, Scherzer lost a Perfect Game to a batter leaning into a HBP with 2 outs in 9th.
   38. Itchy Row Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:56 PM (#6013513)
Should have shot that guy’s toe off like my horoscope said
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: April 14, 2021 at 11:06 PM (#6013515)
#37, thx. That's the one I remember. I'm surprised Scherzer didn't wait for him after the game and beat the living sh*t out of him. Max seems like a pretty intense guy.

I remember watching Kershaw's no-no and his was a perfecto for quite a long time and Hanley Ramirez made a throwing error on a play any decent Little League SS could have made. Kershaw looked displeased....

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