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Monday, November 23, 2020

HardHit/9: Statcast’s Best Hard Contact Metric

HardHit/9 was the single most descriptive pitcher input stat that I found. Its 0.459 R2 won’t beat ERA estimators like FIP, but that stat takes multiple inputs. As a single indicator, it better explains ERA than home runs do. Based on this alone, it deserves to be included among the premier stats we use to evaluate pitchers. Even its slightly-less-descriptive cousin, HardHit/TBF%, probably has a role. K-HH% is worth looking into as a back-of-the-napkin stat.

As for barrels: they look a whole lot like home runs, don’t they? Connor Kurcon of Six Man Rotation has had a great deal of success using Barrels/BBE% as part of pCRA, but that arrangement was actually the least individually descriptive of the six I’m including here. Again, using per-nine stats looks like the best way to capture variance, likely because it contains more implied information about a pitcher’s ability to get outs. Whether that’s good or not is to be determined. But either way, it looks like barrels are less effective than home runs at describing a pitcher’s past ERA. And that makes some sense: not every barrel cleared a fence, but every home run did.

If we’re looking forward to the next season, HardHit/9 and HardHit/TBF don’t just outperform barrels across the board — they’re almost as stable as BB%.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:02 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hard hit rate, statcast

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