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Monday, November 08, 2021

Here are the finalists for MVP, ROY, Cy, MOY

AL MVP:
Vlad Guerrero, Jr. TOR
Shohei Ohtani, LAA
Marcus Semien, TOR

NL MVP:
Bryce Harper, PHI
Juan Soto, WSN
Fernanto Tatis, Jr., SDP

AL Cy Young:
Gerrit Cole, NYY
Lance Lynn, CHW
Robbie Ray, TOR

NL Cy Young:
Corbin Burnes, MIL
Max Scherzer, WSN/LAD
Zach Wheeler, PHI

AL ROY:
Randy Arozarena, TBR
Wander Franco, TBR
Luis Garcia, HOU

NL ROY:
Dylan Carlson, STL
Jonathan India, CIN
Trevor Rogers, MIA

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 08, 2021 at 09:48 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards

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   1. The Duke Posted: November 08, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#6051984)
I miss the days where you could see first place to tenth place vote totals. This is kind of anti-climatic
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: November 08, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6051992)

I miss the days where you could see first place to tenth place vote totals. This is kind of anti-climatic


You still can (and not just through 10, anyone who receives a vote). They still release that after the results are announced, just as they always did. They just added the Top 3 finalist thing to it.
   3. Mefisto Posted: November 08, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6051994)
Interesting that the 2 teams with the best records have between them just 1/2 nominee (Scherzer).
   4. SoSH U at work Posted: November 08, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6051996)
I wonder if we've ever seen the Top 3 in MVP voting from both leagues all come from non-playoff teams, at least in the WC era. Hell, I wonder if we've ever seen it in one league.
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: November 08, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6051998)
The Academy Awards give you 5 Best Actor and Actress finalists (and now up to 10 Best Picture contenders as well, iirc) far in advance of the telecast.

The Pulitzers tell you nothing in advance, and only winner and 2 runnersup announced simultaneously - and no "vote totals" at all after that.
   6. Eddo Posted: November 08, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6052000)
The Academy Awards give you 5 Best Actor and Actress finalists (and now up to 10 Best Picture contenders as well, iirc) far in advance of the telecast.

That is different, though.

For MLB awards, all the voting has already happened; they are just announcing the top three a few days before announcing the winner (and full results).

For the Oscars, the nominees are based on voting by other Academy members in the same category (e.g. actors nominate actors, directors nominate directors, etc.), then after the nominees are determined, the entire Academy votes on those five to determine the winner.
   7. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 09, 2021 at 12:29 AM (#6052003)
None of the six finalists for MVP played for a playoff team. Old-timers shake their fists at this list and talk about how great the ballots were in their day.
   8. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: November 09, 2021 at 07:57 AM (#6052015)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (...) nearly became the first AL/NL player since Chuck Klein in 1932 to lead his league in home runs and steals


What does "AL/NL player" mean? Tatis only played in the NL this year. Do you mean anyone from the AL or the NL? That would be "the major leagues" (or, colloquially, "in baseball"), wouldn't it?
   9. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 09, 2021 at 08:43 AM (#6052019)
What does "AL/NL player" mean? Tatis only played in the NL this year. Do you mean anyone from the AL or the NL? That would be "the major leagues" (or, colloquially, "in baseball"), wouldn't it?


With the Negro Leagues now recognized as "Major League" specifying it as "AL/NL" is clearer. Arguably "Major Leagues" and "Major League Baseball" are distinct (one being a concept, the other being a very specific league) but "AL/NL" works well.
   10. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 09, 2021 at 08:43 AM (#6052020)
Hell, I wonder if we've ever seen it in one league.


I had the same thought.
   11. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 09, 2021 at 08:51 AM (#6052022)
Eyeballing quickly through BBRef for the WC era only it looks like 2015 NL is the only time the top three (Harper, Goldschmidt, Votto) all didn't make the playoffs.
   12. Jay Seaver Posted: November 09, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#6052023)
8 - I'm guessing that someone may have done it in the Negro Leagues, although if that's the case, it strikes me as kind of uncool for MLB.com to adopt this awkward phrasing to exclude them rather than including them.

(Coke to Jose)
   13. kcgard2 Posted: November 09, 2021 at 09:19 AM (#6052028)
On the other hand, with the Negro Leagues typically having only 4-8 teams in them, it's a lot easier to lead one of those leagues in a category. For example, the 1924 ECL had a grand total of 35 players with 200+ PAs for the season. Leading that league in something is just not really comparable...so including NgLs in these types of "last time someone did something" lookups would be kind of uncool in a different way. Damned if you do, damned if you don't, kind of.
   14. Paul d mobile Posted: November 09, 2021 at 09:22 AM (#6052029)
Man, two of the 3 finalists for MYP and the probably Cy Young winner and they still didn't make the playoffs. This game is tough.
   15. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 09, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6052066)
I didn't realize Randy Arozarena, who feels like he's been a star for a while now, was still a rookie. I guess that's because he came into this season with nearly as many career postseason PAs (91) as regular season PAs (99).
   16. bfan Posted: November 09, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6052084)
Man, two of the 3 finalists for MYP and the probably Cy Young winner and they still didn't make the playoffs. This game is tough.


And they went 6-0 vs. the current world champions. Of course, that was before the Braves acquired an outfield, but still.
   17. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 09, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6052095)

I think Baseball Reference is still missing stats for a fair number of NeL games. I'm not sure anyone could say for certain whether a NeL player had accomplished the feat at this point.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6052135)
I think releasing the top 3 finishers beforehand is weird ... and calling them "finalists" like there's going to be a 2nd round of voting or something ... but I suppose it's just to remind folks "hey we'll be announcing this soon." Instead they should probably just move the announcements to start almost immediately after the WS.

Ohtani, Soto**, who cares?***, Scherzer, Arozarena, India (I guess ... close to who cares ... Arozarena is a ton of fun, Franco is a 20-yo star ... India is a 24-yo good player.)

** I spent most of this season thinking Soto had missed a lot of time for his early injury and it wasn't until Sept that I realized he missed just a bit. The only "negative" is they refuse to pitch to him which is not a negative.

*** Seriously. 193, 180 and 157 IP. 13, 16 and 11 wins. That 193 and that 16 led the league. This is what the CYA has been reduced to? I draw my old man line in the sand. Nobody in the AL deserves it. (I don't mind a low-win winner but to have no candidates with a good number of wins ...)
   19. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6052141)
Stathed has the NeL stats but they haven't yet updated things like the "yearly league leaders" tables which makes something like this even harder to track. It's hard enough already -- as far as I know, stathead doesn't allow you to incorporate "league-leading" as a criterion for a search. You might either have to dig it out yourself or ask STATS to track it down. Still, "nearly the first since Chuck Klein" is not exactly an attention grabber.
   20. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 09, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6052148)
This is what the CYA has been reduced to? I draw my old man line in the sand. Nobody in the AL deserves it. (I don't mind a low-win winner but to have no candidates with a good number of wins ...)


The Sawamura Award in Japan is given each season to the top starting pitcher in NPB (one award covers both leagues), but the award is decided by a committee, and if the committee doesn't think that there is a pitcher who deserves it, they don't award it that season. Not giving out the award happened as recently as 2019.
   21. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 09, 2021 at 03:54 PM (#6052150)

#19 Stathead may have the NeL stats that are available on BB-Ref, but BB-Ref doesn't have complete individual stats. Take the 1948 Birmingham Black Barons. BB-Ref says they had a team record of 46-21-1, gives their manager credit for a 51-27-1 record, but only has individual stats for 29 games. Unless we have a contemporaneous leaderboard that shows who was leading in HR and SB that season, I think it's ok to acknowledge we simply don't know who led the league in either category that year.

Maybe there are years with a more complete statistical record, but I doubt the formulation used in the article as an attempt to exclude a NeL accomplishment.
   22. The Duke Posted: November 09, 2021 at 04:02 PM (#6052154)
Arozarena had a great year for a rookie. He’s a bit on the older side but I’d love to have five years of control for him. Great pick up by rays, sadly he’ll be traded again within 18 months. I know their model works but it seems soul-destroying to be a fan of the Rays
   23. John Northey Posted: November 09, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6052166)
It is odd having the top 3 in each league MVP being non-playoff team guys (Jays were damn close though - just 1 win away from a tie breaker). But having winners from losing teams isn't that odd - I remember 1987 all too well when Andre Dawson got the NL award despite coming in dead last and really not doing much beyond RBI's and HR's. George Bell did the same in the AL but his team finished 2 games back in the end (even though I'm a Jays fan I still think Trammell deserved that award).
   24. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 10, 2021 at 01:56 AM (#6052206)
George Bell did the same in the AL but his team finished 2 games back in the end (even though I'm a Jays fan I still think Trammell deserved that award).
It was unfathomable to me, even at 15 years old, that Bell won the MVP that year when he wasn't even the MVP of his own team. Tony Fernandez breaks his elbow, and the Jays lose their last seven games -- four to the Tigers -- with Bell and without Fernandez, and Bell's still the MVP? How dare you! (Obviously, there was more to it than that, but I was 15 and on the other coast.)

The 80s was such a golden age for shortstops. Ozzie was Ozzie, and there was always Ripken, but for me, it was all about Trammell and Fernandez. They were awesome.
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: November 10, 2021 at 05:50 AM (#6052208)
But having winners from losing teams isn't that odd - I remember 1987 all too well when Andre Dawson got the NL award despite coming in dead last and really not doing much beyond RBI's and HR's.


Yes that happened, but it was pretty odd, both at the time and after.
   26. Ron J Posted: November 10, 2021 at 06:02 AM (#6052210)
#24 The most obvious explanation is that a fair number of voters had their vote in before the season ended and voted for RBI leader on pennant winner. The fact that the Jays did not in fact win is a little problematic to that line of reasoning.
   27. gehrig97 Posted: November 10, 2021 at 09:38 AM (#6052222)
Through 2015, 81% of MVP winners have come from playoff teams; 97% from winning teams. Adjust a point or two to get us up to date.

It's a great indication of how "truly rare" it is for an MVP to come from a non-playoff team (i.e., it's not all that rare).
   28. DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6052231)
Reminder - 2021 Most Meritorious Player voting is open to anyone who wants to participate.
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6052240)
It is odd having the top 3 in each league MVP being non-playoff team guys (Jays were damn close though - just 1 win away from a tie breaker). But having winners from losing teams isn't that odd - I remember 1987 all too well when Andre Dawson got the NL award despite coming in dead last and really not doing much beyond RBI's and HR's. George Bell did the same in the AL but his team finished 2 games back in the end (even though I'm a Jays fan I still think Trammell deserved that award).


It's odd, but who on contending teams are more deserving is the bigger question?

In The NL, The best record team in the NL was the Giants, Crawford by war was their best player and was a great offensive shortstop who ended up playing only 138 games, if he plays in 150, he probably easily makes the final three, still I'm sure he finishes top ten in the vote. There is a reason why Kapler is going to walk away with the manager of the year, he had no player of note play over 139 games, and only two starting pitchers over 27 starts. Dodgers best player was a pitcher, and a relative unnamed pitcher, second best was an add in from a trade (and potential Cy Young winner) neither of which is going to win an MVP award, Cardinals didn't have anyone deserving, Brewers best player was a pitcher who isn't going to win the Cy, Braves best player missed half of the season, their best war player is not someone that is entering the MVP discussion (although at 24 he might enter the discussion as the most under talked player in baseball)

None of the best players on contenders, either by reputation or actual performance had as good of a season as the three finalists, so it's not really shocking, Contending teams get the tie breaking vote, but I don't think among today's voters that standings is the first thing they look at.

I'm sure if you look at the al, you'll see the same thing, contending teams nowadays just try to have fewer holes, and hope to have a great season from someone who is a quality player.
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6052246)
(mind you Harper over Wheeler on his own team is a stretch... but I'm in the camp that it's hard for me to put a pitcher on the MVP short list... Now Soto and Tatis are legit...and honestly I can't even begin to predict with certainty who will win, my guess is Soto and that Tatis is somewhat penalized because of both lack of playing time and the fact that the Padres didn't make the playoffs, something that doesn't hurt Soto since the Nats were less expected to contend)
   31. Moeball Posted: November 13, 2021 at 03:41 AM (#6052783)
Because of the change in pitcher usage, the following scenario is going to happen, probably soon. Consensus top pitcher in the league, made 32 starts on the season, didn't miss any turns in the rotation. By far the best ERA in the league but didn't qualify for the title because 32 starts at 5 innings per start is only 160 innings. In fact, we could have a season where no pitchers log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Are they going to have to change the rules for qualification?
   32. bfan Posted: November 13, 2021 at 08:20 AM (#6052787)
In fact, we could have a season where no pitchers log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Are they going to have to change the rules for qualification?


This is an interesting thought. I think if people still cared more about ERA, they might change it, but it seems like there are so many other measures that better measure pitcher effectiveness around these days that they would not change the rule because they do not care.
   33. bfan Posted: November 13, 2021 at 08:26 AM (#6052789)
Braves best player missed half of the season, their best war player is not someone that is entering the MVP discussion (although at 24 he might enter the discussion as the most under talked player in baseball)


I think a lot of sportswriter awards are a little like life-time achievement awards; it takes some time for a player to work their way into the voters consciousness, and until you do, the votes just are not there. Riley kind of came out of nowhere. He was very good in the minors, but lots of people fretted his swing might be not fit for MLB success and his early years bolstered that worry. Now, if he repeats a good fielding year with a .300/.400/.500 year, he will gather more votes.

There are some golden boys in MiLB (Tatis; Betts) that are talked about for years before they arrive in MLB, and they avoid this a little bit, but most players have to stair-step their way to the top with MLB success for a few seasons.
   34. SoSH U at work Posted: November 13, 2021 at 09:06 AM (#6052790)
There are some golden boys in MiLB (Tatis; Betts) that are talked about for years before they arrive in MLB


Riley was a much higher regarded prospect than Betts was. And his breakout year will likely generate a higher MVP finish than Betts' (though Betts was also better in the one year before his breakout than Riley was in the two years before his).

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