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Monday, January 04, 2021

Here’s the actual situation with the Mets and George Springer

The rumored deal between Springer and the Mets that popped up in several places over the holiday was five years, $125 million. In reality, Springer is expected to sign for much more than that. Two league sources said that he was still asking for well over $150 million. Springer’s representatives at Excel Sports Management did not respond to messages seeking comment.

The Mets might be willing to approach $150 million for Springer, but the sides haven’t found sufficient common ground to even get near a deal.

As SNY reported earlier in the offseason, Springer is a more likely target for the Mets than free agent starter Trevor Bauer. There has been no evidence of a serious pursuit of Bauer to date.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 04, 2021 at 06:17 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: blue jays, george springer, mets

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2021 at 07:51 PM (#5997425)
As in 5/$150 or as in 6/$150? Not a massive difference but you'll take 6 in that regard. Either way, a compromise around 5/$125 plus an option at $25 with a $10 M buyout (or a straight 5/$135) is there.

To the comps!!

Probably gonna be a tough buy to comp because he doesn't reach a full season until age 26 but the Astros jerking him around and him performing pretty well in half-seasons at 24-25 suggest he's not a late-bloomer but was well above-average at 24 and so probably at least average at 23 or even 22. Plus of course 2020 stats are less helpful. Still, I gotta work with what PI gives me.

Let's start with expansion era, age 26-30, OF (Springer about 2/1 RF/CF), 2500+ PA, >-3 dWAR (so, give or take, at least an average LF/RF), >120 OPS+:

Huh, that gives us a healthy comp set of 58 non-Springers. By WAA they range from John Briggs (probably not a good comp) to Moises Alou (probably a pretty good hitting comp) at 5.5 to Yaz and Bonds around 32 WAA. Springer sits well below that at 12.4 WAA (I used WAA to give a rough compsnation for PT differences) so let's restrict this to the 5-20 WAA range. That only excludes Yaz, Bonds, Rickey, Griffey, Aaron (in ages 27-30) so unless Springer is actually an inner-circle HoFer, I don't think this is unfair to him. (I've kept Reggie in ... apparently Briggs is just under 5.5 so I've lost him too, no biggie)

So 53 players, Springer at #35 by WAA. His closest peers are not overly promising ... Lynn at 26, Roy White, van Slyke, Dw Evans, Parker, Gwynn, Reggie Smith, Raines, Hamilton, (Springer), Straw, Colavito, Edmonds, Gibson, Maris, Lankford, F Alou, Rice. That covers 10-14 WAA.

And now I can't find how to limit a search on ages 31+ to players in this report in the new stathead. Oh well, query submitted. Anyway, a lot of the guys in that group seem like pretty good comps to Springer -- good defenders, reasonable speed, good bats. I'd be fine dropping Raines for speed and Gwynn due to a BA mismatch, maybe White for power, but the rest seem OK. Springers OPS+ over these years average 132 -- van Slyke is the lowest at 126 and Lynn, Straw, Maris are tops at 140. (Oops, F Alou at 121, maybe drop him). Springer was very, very good over 2019-20 so maybe that separates him from some of these folks if they'd already entered decline.

Not that these guys were bad for ages 31-35/36 but they didn't usually remain stars or couldn't stay on the field. Lynn averaged under 500 PA per year, 13 WAR, 4 WAA through 36. Smith remained really good but not healthy -- just 2200 PA but an excellent 20 WAR, 12 WAA. White had 3 good seasons left but Gibson just one. The big positives here are Edmonds (31/21) and Evans 23/11 ... and I guess therefore Reggie Smith. Some solid players below this group in Al Oliver (18 WAR), M Alou (just 13 but missed a whole season and put up 4 WAR at 37). Just above this group, Puckett was good, Sosa was big (then not), Brian Giles was quite good (22 WAR plus 5 at 37) but you've also got Shawn Green, Bobby Bonds, Braun, Barfield (Granderson was OK).

So I'm not really sure we should expect much more than 13-15 WAR from Springer from here on. It looks quite unlikely to get more than 20 WAR for 31-36 but that would be fine for $150 M or even more. He may be peaking late which would help. If $/WAR is actually around 10 then he's a solid bet to satisfy that $125-150 price range but I don't believe it is (esp now with covid). But Rendon isn't a bad comp (he appears a bit better but it depends a lot on what years are included) and he got $35 per for ages 30-36 so maybe the market has reached that $9-10 level.

   2. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2021 at 08:13 PM (#5997429)
And beyond Straw, Green and Grandersson, some other very Mets-y comps came up. For 26-30, Cespedes had 19 WAR, 9 WAA with a big age 29 (and OK 30). Gilkey had 18 WAR, 9 WAA but most of that was a massive 8 WAR year at 29. Dykstra had a whopping 16 WAA from 26-30. And there's George Foster at 20 WAA, 2nd to Reggie in this broader comp group.

This led me to the question of who's the best Mets position player, aged 31+. Hernandez at 16 WAR leads but probably Piazza at 15 WAR or Beltran at 15 WAR but only 1700 PA. Carter, Ventura and Granderson topped 10 WAR. The worst is a tough call -- by WAR it's Brian McRae and Willie Montanez around -2 in about a half-season but Gus Bell at -1.5 in just 115 PA has a case.

Heaven forfend I should pick on the Mets so let me point out the Cubs in this timeframe had a mere 5 players (Sosa, Williams, Sandberg, Grace, Dawson) easily top Hernandez in WAR but they all had more PA as well so maybe not count Dawson. Bob Buhl is our Brian McRae and we've got a few that can give Gus Bell a run for his money.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: January 04, 2021 at 08:15 PM (#5997430)
Springer doesn't seem like someone who's going to stick in CF (or be a positive in CF) for much longer, but I guess the Mets could always use more corner outfielders.
   4. depletion Posted: January 04, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#5997453)
JJ, I've read other posts with that opinion of Springer's lifetime as a good centerfielder. If that's true, the Mets might be better off sticking with Nimmo, who is younger, although less durable, and about as good a hitter as Springer. Then bring back Marisnick or another decent backup centerfielder. I don't know if this is a trend but the off season seems slow. I wonder if any of the top free agents will negotiate themselves into a Dallas Keuchel style half season.
   5. The Duke Posted: January 04, 2021 at 11:40 PM (#5997464)
Duquette has Blue Jays at 5 years and “well under” 150.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2021 at 11:40 PM (#5997465)
FWIW, Statcast puts him the same in CF and RF and basically average over 2017-20 (+3 outs in CF, +4 outs in RF in about an equal # of chances). Statcast compares to the average OF so that probably rates him as a bit below average in CF, a bit above-average in RF. It's all pretty minor but they probably put Nimmo a bit better overall (+6 in about half as many total chances) but possibly a bit worse in CF.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: January 04, 2021 at 11:47 PM (#5997466)
I have been surprised to see Nimmo - and especially Conforto - sorta kinda play a decent CF the last couple of years.

you don't want either to start even 100 games there, and preferably not even 50.

but it seemed like the Mets mostly could get away with it if there were injuries or a late-inning PH decision.

Alderson doesn't much care about defense anyway (have you noticed, over the years?).

the Mets had an absurd 122 OPS+ in 2020 and a solid 105 in 2019 even with a half-season of the rotting corpse of Juan Lagares in CF and a slew of veteran dregs in various-length cameos (Hechevarria, Nido, CarGo The Lesser, Broxton, Altherr, RajDavis, d'arnaud....).
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 05, 2021 at 12:16 AM (#5997472)
Assuming McNeil to 2B, you get two questions: can Nimmo stay healthy? is Smith really a (near) full-time player? If you answer either of those "no" then Springer makes all sorts of sense. If they're both "yes" then there are probably better ways to spend this kind of money. (Also the question of whether there will be an NL DH anytime soon ... and I have no idea if the Mets have any seriously promising OFs in the system)

If for some reason, McNeil's not headed back to the IF then there would seem no reason to consider Springer. Also, Conforto is FA after 2021 and Nimmo after 2022 so signing Springer would likely mean at least one of those won't be extended ... which is not too big of a deal.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: January 05, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#5997473)
#7 ... not that teams should adopt the statcast "theory" of "an average OF is an average OF" but it also rates Conforto similar to Springer and Nimmo at a bit better than average overall. So it may not matter how you divide up positions among these guys, you'll end up with probably below-average but fine in CF, average in RF and above in LF coming out average overall. And of course they love Marisnick.
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: January 05, 2021 at 12:59 AM (#5997476)
of course they love Marisnick.

well, they let him become a free agent right after the season - so they have a funny way of showing it.
   11. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 05, 2021 at 01:04 AM (#5997478)
How much better is Springer than Jackie Bradley? Bradley seems to be more likely to stick in Center whereas Springer looks destined for a corner apparently. Would Bradley be cheaper to the point that Bauer could be signed as well?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: January 05, 2021 at 01:06 AM (#5997479)
well, they let him become a free agent right after the season - so they have a funny way of showing it.

"They" being statcast.

EDIT: How much better is Springer than Jackie Bradley?

About 30, maybe 40 points of OPS+ better.

2016-2020:

JBJ: 2500 PA, 0 Rbat, 15 WAR, 100 OPS+
GS: 2800 PA, 117 Rbat, 21 WAR, 132 OPS+

So a win per year. Bradley obviously can be had cheaper in AAV terms and probably for fewer years.
   13. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: January 05, 2021 at 01:06 AM (#5997480)

well, they let him become a free agent right after the season - so they have a funny way of showing it.

Pretty sure the "they" there is Statcast, not the Mets.

Edit: Walt wins
   14. Walt Davis Posted: January 05, 2021 at 01:19 AM (#5997481)
FWIW, ZiPS not high on Bradley: 1.5 zWAR in 525 PA, not spectacular defense. Springer comes in at 3.9 in 577 ... interestingly Springer's most similar batter (I think it's offense only) is Moises Alou.

By the way, the only ZiPS not completed yet is Pitt who I assume will be up soon. So head on over to fg and you too can make brilliant posts like mine!!

Oooh boy! Jason Kipnis top comp is Chris Truby!!
   15. Ron J Posted: January 05, 2021 at 01:26 AM (#5997483)
#14 So that's what's been going on with the goats.
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: January 05, 2021 at 08:55 AM (#5997493)
Statcast is a "they?" - ok, I've gotta throw a flag there.

:)
   17. John Northey Posted: January 05, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#5997513)
An interesting battle - Jays with their clear 'this is our red line and we stick to it' vs the Mets 'lord knows'. Can't blame Springer for holding out as long as possible, but he better be careful. If one or the other signs/trades for someone else then he could be stuck with one dance partner and would find himself with little leverage.
   18. Rally Posted: January 05, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#5997568)
Statcast is a "they?" - ok, I've gotta throw a flag there.


These days even computers can’t be restricted to binary.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: January 05, 2021 at 09:56 PM (#5997628)
Statcast is a "they?" - ok, I've gotta throw a flag there.

Next thing you know, I'll start using the "universal you."
   20. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2021 at 12:00 AM (#5997635)
Statcast is a "they?" - ok, I've gotta throw a flag there.

Hmmm ... now that I think about it ...I understand that Statcast is ... well a collective entity or a collection of methodologies and so "it" would be more appopriate (in American English at least). But The Mets is (sic; think General Motors) also a collective entity and so "it" would be more appopriate as well. So a flag should be thrown regardless of which "they" I was referring to but then Howie needs to throw two flags on himself. Meanwhile, flags should also be flying all around for anthropomorphizing both entities by using the emotive verb "love."

For these and several other exciting grammatical conundra, be sure to check out Grammarly.com!!
   21. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2021 at 08:42 AM (#5997646)
But The Mets is (sic; think General Motors) also a collective entity and so "it" would be more appopriate as well. So a flag should be thrown regardless of which "they" I was referring to but then Howie needs to throw two flags on himself. Meanwhile


But "Mets" is a singular entity named as a plural. For those you use "they" just as you would add an apostrophe to indicate possessive (rather than "Mets's").

   22. Rally Posted: January 06, 2021 at 09:07 AM (#5997650)
Jake deGrom is a Met. His team is the Mets.

Aaron Judge is a Yankee. Chris Sale is a Red Sock.
   23. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#5997667)
Chris Sale is a Red Sock.


I will never be able to accept this formulation, even though I know there are no other reasonable options.
   24. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#5997673)
During my dozen years of sportswriting, we always treated the city/school name as singular, the team name as plural (and got frustrated with something like Heat).

And I'm on team Adam, as I said the other day. Writing the singular of my favorite team has always vexed me. There are no good solutions.


Next thing you know, I'll start using the "universal you."


I think we should offer a trade to the South: give up all your racist confederate bullshit, and we'll adopt y'all as the second-person plural.
   25. bfan Posted: January 06, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#5997680)

I think we should offer a trade to the South: give up all your racist confederate bullshit, and we'll adopt y'all as the second-person plural.


Good news, the first part was done a long time ago, so you can go ahead with the "y'all".
   26. reech Posted: January 06, 2021 at 11:18 AM (#5997682)
For the kind of money Springer wants, I'd rather sit tight with Nimmo and go after Bauer, Kluber, etc.
   27. Adam Starblind Posted: January 06, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#5997691)
For the kind of money Springer wants, I'd rather sit tight with Nimmo and go after Bauer, Kluber, etc.


Even if Bauer approaches Cole money? I don't know if that's plausible in this economic climate. Seems more deserving of Strasburg's contract. And if they sign Bauer for anything in that range, is that curtains for resigning Syndergaard? With deGrom's contract, that is a ton to spend on the rotation.

   28. reech Posted: January 06, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#5997704)
$30 million for Springer per year vs maybe the same for Bauer?
I'd take Bauer.
And Syndergaard is no guarantee to be healthy after his surgery.
   29. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: January 06, 2021 at 02:04 PM (#5997710)
Ignoring the fact that I don't want to have to root for Bauer, I'm with reech here. I think he fills a much more obvious need.
   30. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 06, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#5997716)
we'll adopt y'all as the second-person plural.
Future history books: "The Second Civil War started in 2031, after New Jersey proclaimed its secession with the Declaration of #### Youse."
   31. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: January 06, 2021 at 02:41 PM (#5997725)
I think we should offer a trade to the South: give up all your racist confederate bullshit, and we'll adopt y'all as the second-person plural.


That's a terrible trade. I will never use "y'all." "You" is both singular and plural, as it should always be.
   32. base ball chick Posted: January 06, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#5997751)
. bfan Posted: January 06, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#5997680)

I think we should offer a trade to the South: give up all your racist confederate bullshit, and we'll adopt y'all as the second-person plural.

Good news, the first part was done a long time ago


- um, rongggg
i was born in jefferson davis hospital, built in 1924 (closed 30 years ago to make way for a larger hospital for the Dark Ones, built way out where They are


The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: January 06, 2021 at 02:41 PM (#5997725)

That's a terrible trade. I will never use "y'all." "You" is both singular and plural, as it should always be


- honestly, youse Northerners and crazy talkin

ALL y'all know very well that plain ol "you" is not quite enough


   33. Adam Starblind Posted: January 07, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#5997924)
The Mets are getting Lindor and Carrasco from Cleveland. Giving up Giminez and Isaiah Greene.

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