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Thursday, September 19, 2019

Here’s the final Top 100 Prospects list of the year

Now that the Minor League regular season and playoffs have concluded, we’re making a few adjustments to MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list.

While Rays shortstop Wander Franco remains at No. 1, we’ve jumped a pair of position players to the Nos. 2 and 3 spots and anointed a new best pitching prospect in baseball. We’ve lightly reshuffled the first 15 prospects, moved eight others up and six others down, plus added three new guys to the list.

Other than replacing a couple of prospects who may lose their rookie/prospect status by exceeding 130 at-bats or 50 innings in the big leagues through the remainder of the season, these will be the last changes we make to the Top 100 until a total overhaul in January.

So, any thoughts on this list?

 

QLE Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:16 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: prospects

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   1. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: September 19, 2019 at 09:19 AM (#5880645)
Unless he's an out-of-this-world defender, I really don't get the Royce Lewis love. As a hitter he was overmatched at A+ this year, and predictably did no better at AA.
   2. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5880651)
Unless he's an out-of-this-world defender, I really don't get the Royce Lewis love. As a hitter he was overmatched at A+ this year, and predictably did no better at AA.

What uniform is he wearing in the picture? That jersey is great.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5880652)
Unless he's an out-of-this-world defender, I really don't get the Royce Lewis love. As a hitter he was overmatched at A+ this year, and predictably did no better at AA.

As a rule, I don't buy the "average performance, young for his league profile". I want to see dominance.

Nomar Mazara is the poster boy for this. He never really raked in the minors (his seasons of >100 PA were RC+ of 123, 101, 130, 132) but everyone was gushing about how young he was.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5880653)
BTW, Adley Rutschman is a tremendous baseball name. Sounds like he should be playing in the dead-ball era with Addie Joss, and Eppa Rixey.
   5. escabeche Posted: September 19, 2019 at 10:15 AM (#5880673)
If you want baseball names I will direct you down the list to where Brusdar Graterol and Jazz Chisholm appear back to back!
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5880687)

BTW, Adley Rutschman is a tremendous baseball name. Sounds like he should be playing in the dead-ball era with Addie Joss, and Eppa Rixey.


And Bobby Witt should be playing in the 90s with Roger Pavlik and Charlie Hough!
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5880696)
If you want baseball names I will direct you down the list to where Brusdar Graterol and Jazz Chisholm appear back to back!

See, those aren't baseball names to me. The first sounds like a 5th century barbarian chieftain, and latter like a low-end 70s porn star.
   8. QLE Posted: September 19, 2019 at 02:17 PM (#5880801)
Unless he's an out-of-this-world defender, I really don't get the Royce Lewis love. As a hitter he was overmatched at A+ this year, and predictably did no better at AA.


I have to wonder if it's a variant of the sunk cost fallacy in action- namely, because he was a #1 draft pick, there are certain folk who wish to keep reviewing him based on that status, rather than on his actual record.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5880807)
and latter like a low-end 70s porn star


No, you're thinking of Dick Pole.
   10. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5880877)
So, of the two prospects the Mets gave up in the Cano/Diaz trade:

-Jarred Kelenic moved up from #56 to #14 in MLB's list
-Justin Dunn moved up from #91 to #71

Stating the obvious here, but the early returns on that deal aren't looking good.

I see that Dunn was just called up by Seattle and has walked 8 guys in 2.2 innings. Sounds like he was just nervous in his first appearance (5 BB in 0.2 IP) and this isn't anything more than that -- he pitched two scoreless innings with 3 BB his second time out there.
   11. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5880879)


What uniform is he wearing in the picture? That jersey is great.


It is apparently the Pensacola Blue Wahoos (Twins AA) "Summer of '69" throwback jersey.
   12. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: September 19, 2019 at 06:24 PM (#5880903)
I have to wonder if it's a variant of the sunk cost fallacy in action- namely, because he was a #1 draft pick, there are certain folk who wish to keep reviewing him based on that status, rather than on his actual record.


I think that you've got it exactly. He wasn't even the most highly touted amateur that year. IIRC Hunter Greene was widely expected to go 1-1, but fell to the Reds with the second pick. Once Lewis got taken first over all his stock soared, even though the only difference increase in information that we had pre- and post-pick is that one team liked him a lot.
   13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 19, 2019 at 06:57 PM (#5880912)
a low-end 70s porn star.


Were there high-end 70's porn stars? John Holmes? Marilyn Chambers I suppose?
   14. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 19, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5880929)
Glad to see Lux at #2. After the Dodgers gave up Diaz for Machado last year, it was looking like years of deadline trades had finally caught up to them with respect to the system. But they got breakout seasons from Lux, Smith and May this year as well as got some replenishment from the Puig-Kemp trade that looked like a salary dump at the time.
   15. JAHV Posted: September 19, 2019 at 07:42 PM (#5880934)
It's nice that Jo Adell is still in the top 5, but the Angels have no one else on the list. Their farm system has just not hit on anyone lately, especially pitchers.
   16. Zonk didn't order a hit on an ambassador Posted: September 19, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5880945)
Lewis is very much a project - but he is very toolsy.... I don’t know that I’ve heard him described as an “out of this world” defender, but I think the consensus is that he can stick at SS and potentially be a good SS (I think his arm is considered plus, his range more good enough). He also does get raves for makeup - but sometimes that seems to get overplayed on top picks...

Anyway, whispers I’ve read think his problems offensively boil down to a big leg kick and pronounced trigger.... I.e., he’s one of those guys whose body is maybe too active at the point of attack... everything’s moving too much. Some guys grow, adjust, and make their pronounced triggers work when they face better stuff and deeper repertoires. Some guys need to be coached into a new approach and drop the funky dance. And some guys don’t.

I think the good news (not so bad news?) is that the power still shows up enough to validate his tool projections...

That said, yeah... he doesn’t belong in the top10 anymore.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 19, 2019 at 08:09 PM (#5880948)
I think the good news (not so bad news?) is that the power still shows up enough to validate his tool projections...


It's not showing up in his milB ISO.
   18. DFA Posted: September 20, 2019 at 12:18 AM (#5881110)
Glad to see Lux at #2. After the Dodgers gave up Diaz for Machado last year, it was looking like years of deadline trades had finally caught up to them with respect to the system. But they got breakout seasons from Lux, Smith and May this year as well as got some replenishment from the Puig-Kemp trade that looked like a salary dump at the time.


Yusniel Diaz did not make the cut, but it is worth noting that his performance improved as the season moved on, likely due to healing from injuries. Dean Kremer also started off the year injured, but he played well in AA before struggling in his first taste of AAA (though a lot of pitchers struggled in AAA this year). Another piece to that deal, Rylan Bannon, had a decent year as well, posting wRC+ of 120 in both AA and AAA. All three likely will be in Baltimore next summer. Will Dodger fans miss any of them? Hard to say.
   19. spycake Posted: September 20, 2019 at 05:27 AM (#5881124)
I think the good news (not so bad news?) is that the power still shows up enough to validate his tool projections...


It's not showing up in his milB ISO.


Royce Lewis, recent performance

Age - Lvl - ISO - lgISO
19 - A+ - .144 - .116
20 - A+ - .138 - .111
20 - AA - .127 - .123
   20. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 20, 2019 at 08:35 AM (#5881131)
this year as well as got some replenishment from the Puig-Kemp trade that looked like a salary dump at the time.


This ended up being a salary dump and a fleecing of the Reds at the same time...

Reds get Puig and Wood. Puig was well loved but very mediocre in his time in Cincinnati. Wood was a non-factor, as he was hurt almost from his first appearance in spring training. The Reds sent the Dodgers Bailey, who was promptly dumped by the Dodgers (gave them relief against the luxury tax cap), but, has gone on to stay healthy and pitch fairly well for the entire season for KC and the A's. They also got Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, who both played exceedingly well and are now both in MLB's top 100 prospects list. The Reds only have 3 guys in the list, so, Downs and Gray would be listed as the 3rd and 4th best prospects on the Reds list.

Of course, if the Reds didn't make that trade, Bailey would have went 0-10 with a 6.5 era for them, Gray's arm would have fallen off, and Downs would have hit something like .230/.310/.350...
   21. asinwreck Posted: September 20, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5881133)
The most interesting guy on that list is Oneil Cruz. If he sticks at the position, he will be a most inaccurately identified shortstop.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:04 AM (#5881136)
Royce Lewis, recent performance

Age - Lvl - ISO - lgISO
19 - A+ - .144 - .116
20 - A+ - .138 - .111
20 - AA - .127 - .123


Slightly above league average is poor for a #1 prospects. Those guys are supposed to dominate.
   23. jmurph Posted: September 20, 2019 at 09:14 AM (#5881137)
It is apparently the Pensacola Blue Wahoos (Twins AA) "Summer of '69" throwback jersey.

Nice find, thanks.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: September 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5881360)
Slightly above league average is poor for a #1 prospects. Those guys are supposed to dominate.

Sure but the claim was "the power still shows up enough to validate his tool projections." That's not saying dominant power. Anyway, certainly the writeup at mlb.com could be considered breathless compared with his actual performance.
   25. Zonk didn't order a hit on an ambassador Posted: September 20, 2019 at 06:01 PM (#5881366)
Slightly above league average is poor for a #1 prospects. Those guys are supposed to dominate.


Sure but the claim was "the power still shows up enough to validate his tool projections." That's not saying dominant power. Anyway, certainly the writeup at mlb.com could be considered breathless compared with his actual performance.


Yeah - and mea culpa, I slightly undershot the ISO (the dangers of math in your head), but again.... He's a guy who *should* be able to stick at SS and *does* have other tools (speed, hit, and at least a good arm... though, also against my point - his power was generally considered at least among his best tool projections).

Anyway... My point is he's certainly not a bust (yet). I think the Twins *probably* should have let him spend the whole year at high A. He still belongs in the top 100 - probably top 50 (give or take).

He's not A-Rod.

Nobody is.
   26. donlock Posted: September 20, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5881372)
#18 - 4 prospects left from the Manny Machado deal. None really played much past AA this year. Zach Pop had Tommy John surgery and is out for a while. Kremer pitched well at AA, not so great at AAA. Bannon is a 3b, not a big need for the Orioles, and hit only .255 at AA ball. The prize of the trade was Yusnial Diaz who never got out of AA - batted .262 with 11 Hrs this year with some injuries and time off during the season. O's have a lot of outfielders to sort through for next season. He seems stalled at AA level but he is only 22. There is a spot for the two pitchers if and when they are ready to play at a higher level.

Orioles apparently tried to trade MM before the 2018 season but got no compelling offers. Dodgers offered the 5 player package for a half year of Manny. Their farm system was loaded and some of these guys would have not made the roster and would have been grabbed at the Rule 5 draft. The Orioles did draft Drew Jackson off the Dodgers. He was cut from the team and returned shortly after opening day. The Dodgers took him back. Don't know if there were any serious offers that would let the O's keep him. He played some SS at Oklahoma City and batted .202 this year.

Hard to say these prospects were missed on the Dodgers' team this year No idea what any other offers were at the time. Manny seems off the radar in San Diego. O's fans hope at least one of the four will make it to the big club.

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