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Friday, September 17, 2021

Hey, pal, WEEKEND OMNICHATTER’s eyes are up here, for September 17-19, 2021

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: September 17, 2021 at 03:44 PM | 97 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 17, 2021 at 04:55 PM (#6040150)
WHO WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6040154)
Weekend is upon us.

Shohei, do you prefer the twice a week omnichatter format better or are you leaning to doing daily? I like the twice a week personally, but since you are pretty much in charge, I thought it was important to see your opinion on it.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6040172)
So I'm looking at the standings on mlb and paying attention to run differential more than anything else, and mostly just paying attention to the bad teams and wondering how accurate pre-season predictions were?

The worst teams in baseball by run differential are 1. Baltimore, 2. Pittsburgh and 3. Arizona... I think most people predicted some of that, the surprise to me is Colorado not being as bad as expected. Cubs being a lot worse, Nats and Twins being pretty bad also (to be fair, the Nats and Cubs gave up pretty early so pre-season predictions might not have accounted for that)


If you had to rate the biggest surprises from pre-season to right now... What would it be. Giants is of course going to be on any list like this... White Sox maybe... but beyond that, is there any real surprises either way? Slight underperformance (San Diego) or over performance doesn't really qualify for the discussion... the Blue Jays probably enter the list that I forgot to mention,
   4. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:19 PM (#6040182)
Toronto's massive run differential is a big surprise IMO -- good offense sure, positive run differential maybe but a 115 team ERA+ leading to a +175 differential? Didn't see that coming. I didn't expect Houston or Milwaukee to be this good either. The Nats are much worse than I'd have guessed although I suppose that can be partly explained by the Strasburg injury, Soto missing some time, and the Scherzer/Turner trade. Finally the Ms are the "how are they doing it?" team.

I like the twice-weekly chatters -- we just haven't been getting enough traffic to justify daily and this allows for broader discussion than just "so that happened" posts. What I would like is if the thred could stick at the top for the 3-4 days it's active. I know it's possible to make a thread sticky but usually they stay stuck for months (sometimes months after they're done) not days so I don't know how annoying it is to stick/unstick threads.

On the broader topic -- on mlb.tv, under the games there's a set of other things to watch like interviews, highlights, etc. And I don't know if you have this in the US but here in Oz I just noticed that we also have "The Bettor's Eye" (the "o" suggests it's not US). Oh well, not like we didn't know that was coming (probably been there for years, I only ever watch games).
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:39 PM (#6040184)
Gallo gallops round the bases on line drive HR to RF. 1-0, NYY over CLE.
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:20 PM (#6040188)
Aaron Judge gavels a solo HR (#35) into the Yankee bullpen. 2-0. That’s career HR #154 for Judge, which moves him past Joe Gordon for 29th place in Yankees history.
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:27 PM (#6040189)
Yea, about Toronto, when I started my comment, I was really looking at the lower teams, I hadn't realized how incredible Toronto's run differential was until I went back and re looked at my comment for factualness. And then realized "Oops... I missed them."
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:30 PM (#6040190)
Goldy makes it 1-0 Cardinals in the first inning.


I like the twice-weekly chatters -- we just haven't been getting enough traffic to justify daily and this allows for broader discussion than just "so that happened" posts. What I would like is if the thred could stick at the top for the 3-4 days it's active. I know it's possible to make a thread sticky but usually they stay stuck for months (sometimes months after they're done) not days so I don't know how annoying it is to stick/


That is the thing, I pushed for this and I wanted to check with the "guy in charge" that he was fine with it. I respect the people with the keys type of thing, and I just wanted to see if others felt like I did.

And the broader thoughts was one of the reasons I pushed for this, often with the daily, a convo would come up, but wouldn't be explored because another chatter came up.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6040191)
Tyler O'Neill... I cannot say enough about him this month. 3-0 Cardinals first inning.
   10. Snowboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6040193)
Vlad Jr with a rocket for #46.
For age 22 seasons, that moves him out of a tie with Johnny Bench, and into one with Joe DiMaggio's 1937 season. He's one shy of Eddie Mathews 47HR in a season at that age. Phenomenal company.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:56 PM (#6040194)
Cardinal announcers are talking about Bader's defense, and I have to say, that when he came back, it cemented the defense by putting every player in their proper position..
   12. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:02 PM (#6040195)
I just noticed that we also have "The Bettor's Eye" (the "o" suggests it's not US)
Would that it was a foreign product confined to the far side of the globe, but it’s on the MLB Network weeknights from 6:00-6:30 PM. Probably only a matter of time before such shows completely supplant the traditional game (not ‘gaming’) focused pre-game shows. The post-game Bettor’s Lament may be more of a programming challenge, but it, too, could be coming soon.

I recently noticed that every advertising sign in the Washington, DC METRO (subway) Station for Nationals Park was for the team’s official gaming partner, BetMGM. Must have 40 or more of them.
   13. Snowboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:19 PM (#6040202)
Clapper, that's just gross.

Hey I haven't been to DC since the Nationals moved there. I've been to some Capitals games, but I seem to remember it being a "get in, get out" experience. What's it like for Nats games? Is there anything like a community around the ballpark, are there any hotels or restaurants? Is it safe, or is it "get in, get out" and perhaps best if you drive?
   14. Astroenteritis Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:29 PM (#6040207)
I didn't expect Houston...to be this good either.


Agreed. I thought the Astros would be an 85-87 win team, because the starting rotation would turn out to be a weakness. I'm sure most casual fans, and even some more than casual fans, aren't very familiar with Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier, who have ERA+ of 128, 133, 128, and 135, and have accounted for 71 starts this season. It's been quite the pleasant surprise to see all these pitchers do well.

Of course having seven players in the regular lineup with OPS+ of 132, 127, 132, 128, 121, 145 and 138 helps, too. And the player at 145, Kyle Tucker, has exceeded all expectations. I've always thought the great thing about baseball is how every team's season is a story that never unfolds exactly as planned, and the positive surprises are quite fun.












   15. cardsfanboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:51 PM (#6040209)
The ultimate record I don't know about, but pretty much everyone had the Astros winning the division easily coming into the season. I don't think one single site predicted anything other than the Astros winning the division.


If I go by memory it was pretty much AL west belonged to the astros, al central was the twins with maybe the indians challenging, the al east was the Yankees with the Rays challenging and Red Sox... NL east was the Braves with the Nats and Mets challenging, central was the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers with the Reds challenging, west was Dodgers with the Padres challenging (and locking up the wild card)

That is from a half formed memory... I don't think anyone thought the White Sox was going to walk away with the division, but at the same time the central was clearly open to anyone.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:09 PM (#6040211)
What's it like for Nats games? Is there anything like a community around the ballpark, are there any hotels or restaurants? Is it safe, or is it "get in, get out" and perhaps best if you drive?
The METRO Station (Green Line) is a block from Nationals Park, so it’s by far most convenient option. Parking is quite expensive (or maybe I’m cheap), which is another reason to take METRO. There’s been a lot of development around the ballpark, much of it not completed before the pandemic. Construction cranes used to dominate the outfield skyline, now it’s hotels, condos, apartments & office buildings. There are a lot of restaurants along the one block walk down Half Street from the subway to the ballpark, and more directly across from the left field corner of the ballpark on N Street going toward South Capitol Street. I’m no gourmand (low standards = seldom disappointed), but they’re a better choice than what’s available in the park for those who have the time to arrive early or linger afterwards. There are even more options if you’re willing to walk a few blocks from the ballpark. The entire area is undergoing a dramatic transformation that’s mostly complete. It’s quite safe, IMHO, for a downtown urban area, with a noticeable police presence for traffic control and security around the ballpark, and the 1st District Police Station is only a block away. There was a shooting incident outside the ballpark this season that led to the game being suspended, apparently due to the uncertainty of the situation, but that’s not the norm.
   17. Snowboy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6040217)
Jays lose 7-3 to MIN. Ryu goes 2+ innings. Twins hit 4 HR, they are 2nd only to TOR in AL in that regard. Josh Donaldson got a standing O from Jays fans before his first AB, and he was soon part of the bomb squad. Twins are loosey-goosey, playing spoiler.

Clapper, thanks for the reply. I remember that shooting, and came away with the impression that it was abnormal for the area, but it's always good to ask a local. I like a ballpark (any venue, really) that is convenient to public transit because I am not addicted to renting vehicles and driving. But I also don't like being caught out at a transit station without at least my hockey stick.
   18. Howie Menckel Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:36 PM (#6040218)
AL WILD CARD thru early Fri (TWO slots)

BOS 84-65 +0.5 (W)
NYY 83-65 --- (W)

TOR 82-65 0.5 (L)
OAK 79-67 3 at LAA
SEA 78-68 4 at KC
   19. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6040219)
The top of the Age-22 Career BB Leaderboard has remained unchanged for 80 years, with Ted Williams (350) & Mel Ott (362) occupying the top two spots, until tonight, when Juan Soto’s 3 BB gave him 351 career BB to push him past Teddy Ballgame, in fewer PA too. Soto also singled, and boosted his OBP to a gaudy .460. Impressive.
   20. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:13 PM (#6040222)
Weird! Albert 'Grandpa' Pujols in the Playoffs... Takeshi-Yamamoto Ohtani not... now, who is playing in the wrong team ?
   21. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6040224)
And how about them Cards? Yikes. Told ya, CFB! Enjoy them wins!
   22. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:33 PM (#6040226)
Now, if only the A's can find a way to win and Logan Webb keeps being Webby... a good start for the weekend!
Go Baseball !

And of course, the Angels turn a beautiful DP. Mofoerthuckers !
   23. Howie Menckel Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6040227)
second NL WILD CARD thru Fri

STL 77-69 --- (W)

CIN 77-71 1 (W)
SDP 76-71 1.5 (L)
PHI 75-72 2.5 (W)

Darvish vs Wainwright on Saturday, with SDP season on the brink

this recent 10-22 stretch has left on a mark on the Padres, I'd say

and as things currently stand, the Pads may look back and realize that their last 22 games of 2021 were against playoff teams
   24. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:46 PM (#6040228)
And again, we need Robo Umps! I haven't seen this many bad calls in a long time.
   25. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:53 PM (#6040229)
Let's go Oakland !
   26. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:53 PM (#6040230)
And of course, Moneyball is the best Baseball movie !
   27. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:55 PM (#6040231)
Who is in charge of the LA Angels ? Is that Donald Dumbsfeld ? Ronald Dumbshit ?
   28. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:59 PM (#6040233)
Jesus, Buster Posey has really had a good season over all, but 2 ABs today, were so bad, I would send him down to the Farm System.

Disgusting.
   29. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:11 AM (#6040237)
Fook you, Barves !

And fook you, Gabe Fookler ! With that sidehand/underhand idiot pitcher !

Write your last will and testament !

   30. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:15 AM (#6040238)
Hope for you that the Giants win in the 9th, Gabe Shitler.
   31. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6040239)
Holy Cow ! Go Giants !
   32. AT-AT at bat@AT&T Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:24 AM (#6040240)
Donovan Solano homers in the 9th.
   33. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:28 AM (#6040241)
Giants, with closer McGee on DL, have Rogers blow a 4-2 lead in 9th and the Braves...

well, they are up 5-4 with 2 outs in 9th and down to their last strike but listen, when 33-year-old slugger Donovan Solano is at the plate, all things are possible. and he hits a solo HR - the 23rd of his glorious career as a power hitter and his first AB after 24 days on the IL - to send us to extra stanzas....
   34. Mike A Posted: September 18, 2021 at 01:05 AM (#6040243)
I hate the ghost runner with the fire of a thousand suns.

Braves lose another 1-run game to fall to 23-29 on the year in those contests. Phillies are 28-22 in 1-run affairs, which is a big reason why the division is so close despite the Pythag difference.

Braves also 4-9 in extras.
   35. Walt Davis Posted: September 18, 2021 at 01:13 AM (#6040244)
If I go by memory it was pretty much AL west belonged to the astros, al central was the twins with maybe the indians challenging, the al east was the Yankees with the Rays challenging and Red Sox... NL east was the Braves with the Nats and Mets challenging, central was the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers with the Reds challenging, west was Dodgers with the Padres challenging (and locking up the wild card)

We have somewhat different memories. Astros, yes, but with A's challenging and really an open question as to whethher Houston's lackadaisacal 2020 would carry on. I sorta figured them for 89-90 which might or might not win the division. The Twins were the pick of the ALC but a lot of people were touting the White Sox too -- although if you'd told them Robert and Eloy would be (we thought) out for the season (and it was still 2/3 of it), I don't know that anybody would have predicted this. The NLC was supposed to be a mediocre 4-team slog and the NLE a mediocre 3-team slog. ALE some folks were touting Toronto to do well and everybody had pretty much given up on the Red Sox. Of course the Dodgers were supposed to win 200 games and run away with the NLW -- I still can't believe they haven't, they might be the best team since at least the Big Red Machine. Their pitching staff has a 137 ERA+ for crying out loud -- that sorta thing will get you into the HoF easily.

Meanwhile, on topics nobody cares about, the Cubs continue their offensive barrage, not that it does much good. They've scored 33 in their last 6 games and gone 1-5 (given up 55). Anybody know what the modern record is for games giving up 10+? Cubs are up to 18 and should be able to squeeze in a few more before it's all done. The did it 8 times in August. We're only 7-5 when scoring 10+ runs.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:25 AM (#6040252)
We have somewhat different memories.



Not that much different, I just never take the A's seriously, especially when it comes to pre-season predictions, I just didn't think anyone thought there would be a competitor in the West, so the Astros were by default the team. I did miss people touting the White Sox, the hiring of TLR seemed like a white flag for the franchise more than a revival.

Dodgers were supposed to win 200 games and run away with the NLW -- I still can't believe they haven't, they might be the best team since at least the Big Red Machine.


Yea, right now the Dodgers feel like late 90's Yankees or 50's Yankees or 20's Yankees. (although I'm looking at the Yankees franchise page, and have no idea what happened in 1925-- yes Ruth had an illness, but still)
   37. Howie Menckel Posted: September 18, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#6040259)
AL WILD CARD thru Friday

BOS 84-65 +0.5 (W)
NYY 83-65 --- (W)

TOR 82-65 0.5 (L)
OAK 80-67 2.5 (W)
SEA 79-68 3.5 (W)

..............

NL LEAST thru Friday

ATL 76-69 --- (L)

PHI 75-72 2 (W)

.............

NL BEST thru Friday
SFG 96-52 --- (W)
LAD 94-54 2 (L)

...........

second NL WILD CARD thru Friday

STL 77-69 --- (W)

CIN 77-71 1 (W)
SDP 76-71 1.5 (L)
PHI 75-72 2.5 (W)
   38. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 18, 2021 at 11:06 AM (#6040263)
Dodgers were supposed to win 200 games and run away with the NLW -- I still can't believe they haven't, they might be the best team since at least the Big Red Machine.


The Dodgers are pretty much who everyone expected them to be - they're still on pace to win well over 100 games. The only bizarre thing that happened to the Dodgers is the Giants.
   39. TomH Posted: September 18, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6040291)
indeed, Tom N

The Dodgers are +242 in runs; we would expect them to be 100-48. They are "only" 94-54. Despite a great bullpen.
The Giants are a super team. +182 in runs. But instead of 6 games behind, they are 96-52, 2 games up. Whaddaya gonna do.
   40. TomH Posted: September 18, 2021 at 03:34 PM (#6040293)
If the Dodgers only get the wild card, how many teams would be *more* favored to represent the NL in the World Series than them? The answer might be "0.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6040296)
I'm fairly certain the Dodgers are the best team in baseball right now, record or not. Doesn't mean that I hope they are the NL representative in the world series. I still want it to be the Cardinals no matter the fact that they are probably the 6th best team in the NL(or worse even---1. Dodgers 2. Giants 3. Brewers 4. Braves 5. Padres.... after that I can see arguments for Reds, Phillies, Mets, again, regardless of actual record) . Doesn't change the fact that as a fan, I want my team there. :)
   42. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 05:30 PM (#6040314)
1. Dodgers 2. Giants 3. Brewers 4. Braves 5. Padres....

At one point this may have been true, but the Padres as currently constituted aren't better than the Cardinals as currently constituted.

The Padres have one reliable SP (Musgrove), and have gone 10-22 over their last 32 games.

The Cardinals are 24-14 since Aug. 5, around the time they revamped their staff and Edmundo Sosa began supplanting Paul DeJong in ther lineup, and they've enjoyed a healthy OF of O'Neill, Bader, and Carlson during that stretch as well, which wasn't the case for most of the first half of the season.

Through July the Cardinals were putting a whopping 5.2 runners on base per game via walk or HBP, a number shaved down to 3.0/game since then, and they haven't hit a batter in 25 games---their longest such streak since 1989.

EDIT: The Cardinals current no-hit-batsmen streak is the longest in MLB since the A's streak of 27 in 2013, and the fifth-longest in MLB since 2000.
   43. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 05:44 PM (#6040317)
I was trying to be nice and a bit and humble.... I think any team that has Tatis jr, is basically locked into being a good to great team, the Cardinals don't have anything like that... (same with the angels and Trout etc... you can't be bad when you have an elite player... The Cardinals have a lot of good players though, and literally no negatives at any position)

I'm also a huge fan of Pham, and he's having a really off year, that isn't to his level... but outside of catcher, if you look at the Padres, we are talking every hitter is plus hitter (100 ops+)... their pitching hasn't shown up though... Darvish is a huge disappointment same with Snell etc... but if you look at going forward, you kinda have to assume some potential there.

Mind you, I like my team more going forward.. I think Lester has found what is working for him, same with Happ, and I think Wainwright is a legit Cy Young contender, add in that the Cardinals, like the Padres do not have a single weak position player in their lineup, and I like what they are providing. And that Tyler O'Neill should be in the MVP discussion and Carlson in the ROTY (along with Sosa)... not that I think any of them should win, but they should enter the discussion.
   44. Hombre Brotani Posted: September 18, 2021 at 05:49 PM (#6040320)
I think any team that has Tatis jr, is basically locked into being a good to great team
As someone who roots for Mike Trout's team, not so fast, my guy.
   45. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:02 PM (#6040322)
you can't be bad when you have an elite player...

I think there's a pretty substantial body of evidence that refutes this.
   46. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:05 PM (#6040323)

I think there's a pretty substantial body of evidence that refutes this.


I know... but I can be optimistic. And in case of the Padres, there is some real evidence that the front office is trying to supplement the elite talent.
   47. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:07 PM (#6040324)
but outside of catcher, if you look at the Padres, we are talking every hitter is plus hitter (100 ops+).

Using Sosa as the SS, the Cardinals can same the same thing.

(OK, technically Edman is at 97, but the lineups are pretty similar; the Cardinals don't have a Tatis, but 5 guys with an OPS+ of 110 or better, vs. 4 for the Pads. Team OPS+ of 99 for the Cardinals, 101 for the Padres.)
   48. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6040332)
Edman, who is 3.4 war player, gets a pass.

The thing I like about the Cardinals is that you have

1b Goldy 5.5 war
2b Edman 3.4
SS Sosa at 3.1
3b Arenado at 4.1
c Molina 1.7
Lf O'neill 5.2
CF Bader(87 games) 2.9
RF Carlson 2.5 war...

The standard is 2.0 war for a season is league average... The Cardinals are above that at every position except their future hof catcher.

Then you add Waino who is a Cy Young contender that isn't liked by war as much as he should be while still putting up a 3.7 war...

   49. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:07 PM (#6040339)
Then you add Waino who is a Cy Young contender that isn't liked by war as much as he should be while still putting up a 3.7 war...


The thing is that logically a guy who is top 10 in innings pitched and era and era+ (and league leader in complete games) at 190 innings, should most definitely be much closer to 6 war than 4 war for the season.

The argument that era difference is more important than seasonal quality/quantity just doesn't strike me as sensible.
   50. Walt Davis Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6040342)
Some weekend meanderings:

Zack Wheeler had a pretty terrible August. He's straightened things out in Sept and still leads the NL in IP, K and WARpit but he's come back towards the pack. Which opens the door for a possible 4th CYA for Scherzer. He's well back in IP but leads the league in ERA, is less than one WAR behind, has the better record and has been insanely good down the stretch (0.88 ERA for the Dodgers). If the Phils miss the playoffs and the Dodgers win the division, Scherzer is probably the favorite. (I realize you could make a pretty similar case for Buehler too but he doesn't have the sub-1 Aug/Sept ERA.)

It also means that Wheeler won't be MVP. That probably wasn't a big "risk" anyway but he used to have the most WAR in the NL by a good margin. Not anymore as Tatis and Soto are closing -- pretty amazing given the time they've missed. Normally you might need to make a case for a guy who's missed that much time based purely on rate stats but Tatis leads in HRs and WARpos -- leading in some counting stats despite missing time is impressive. Then normally you might need for the Padres to make the playoffs but if the main competition is Wheeler, chances are he's not making the playoffs either (and obviously Soto isn't).

Which brings us to two darkhorse candidates. I'm sure CFB and the other Cards' fans have been pointing this out for a while and I just wasn't paying enough attention but Goldschmidt is 3rd in WARpos at 5.5. It's really just a standard Goldschmidt season but he got off to a pretty lousy start (sub-700 OPS through May) and was still at 750 at the AS break. In the 2nd half, he's hit 327/398/593 and even better over the last month. The counting stats aren't impressive so he'll need a major "they made the playoffs" bias but if they hold Tatis's missed time against him and the Padres miss the playoffs ...

The other very darkhorse is Posey. It's very, very light playing time by MVP standards but when there's not a clear candidate, catchers sometimes sneak through. WAR's not impressed at all (just 3.1 WAR) but he's still a C with a 139 OPS+ (same as Goldschmidt) on the team with the best record so there must be some reason they're so good and so surprising so it must be Posey. Normally 450 PA would be immediately disqualifying but if the other candidate is only 80 PA ahead and missed the playoffs while you're a catcher on the best team ...

The Brewers don't really have any viable candidates. Adames has been their best position player but between starting in TB and having some injuries, he's played in just 88 games for the Brewers. Burnes and Woodruff might have good CYA arguments in other seasons but if voters will go for a lower-IP candidate, Scherzer is the obvious choice. They also have just 10 and 9 wins respectively -- how a guy can have a 166 ERA+, a similar FIP, pitch for a 600 team and go 9-9 is beyond me. (I know deGrom does that regularly but he hasn't played for a 600 team.)
   51. Walt Davis Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:22 PM (#6040343)
The argument that era difference is more important than seasonal quality/quantity just doesn't strike me as sensible.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. But whatever it is, that era difference will affect all pitchers in this era so it wouldn't seem to explain why he his 2-3 WAR behind the WARpit leaders. What's "killing" him isn't anything related to era differences, it's the 92 park factor.

EDIT: For those that don't know, era differences in WARpit enter in two ways. First is in Rrep (replacement value) -- it takes about 220 innings to get to 20 runs of replacement value. Of course today's starters almost never get to 220 innings (Wheeler might make it this year). But that doesn't mean their Rrep should go up to 20/180 innings or whatever -- relievers are now throwing about 35-40% of all innings, all starting pitchers are simply less valuable, especially in a "replacement" sense.

The second is in the RA9role component. This is where the inherent advantage for relievers (or disadvantage for starters) is adjusted for. Relievers (of the 1-inning variety at least) are usually more effective than starters, lowering the league average ERA making starters look worse than "they really are." Even over the course of Wainwright's career, this has gone from about 0.16 R/9 to 0.21 for starters versus about -0.33 for relievers. Back in the good old days (Steve Carlton say), RA9role for starters was around 0.11 versus -0.28 for relievers (Pedro Borbon Sr). So that gap has shifted from about 0.39 R/9 to 0.54 R/9 in starter's "favor."

Anyway, there's simply no way around the fact that greater reliever usage means starters are less valuable overall. To force a modern "average starter" to a 2.2 WAR would mess the whole system up. WAR is a zero-sum game so if you want to argue that 180 inning pitchers now are the same as 220 inning pitchers 30 years ago are the same as 250 inning pitchers 50 years ago and everybody deserves the same Rrep, that extra WAR has to come from other positions. Similarly if you want to argue that Cs are under-valued by WAR, etc.
   52. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:24 PM (#6040344)
The thing about Goldy, is he doesn't feel like an MVP even on my team, he's been solidly excellent, but if forced to vote for Cardinal MVP, it's going to be Waino (by a large margin) ahead of Arenado, ahead of O'Neill with Goldy being fourth... That is from the perspective of a fan watching the season work it's way out.

There is a problem with judging people who are expected to be good, early season dissatisfaction might affect the perception. By the numbers I know Goldy has been good... It just doesn't feel like it.
   53. Snowboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:28 PM (#6040345)
Hombre Brotani


Like the name change. Would also have accepted Brohei Shohtani.
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6040346)
I'm not sure what you're saying here. But whatever it is, that era difference will affect all pitchers in this era so it wouldn't seem to explain why he his 2-3 WAR behind the WARpit leaders. What's "killing" him isn't anything related to era differences, it's the 92 park factor.


The issue I have is that era difference isn't being properly monitored... Guys like Scherzer and their 187 era+ over 30 fewer innings than Waino with his 130 era+ should be a lot closer than 5.4 vs 3.5... That 30 innings is huge. That era+ isn't nearly as important to be honest. The difference in winning percentage between 130 era+ and 180 era+ isn't nearly as important as innings pitched at 120 era+ .

If you tell me that I'm going to have 35 starts by a guy who goes 7 innings at 120 era+... vs a guy who is going to give me 27 starts at 170 era+... and I have to eat the rest with a replacement level pitcher... the ace of my staff is the guy who is giving me 35 starts... I'll win nearly as many 3 runs allowed games as 2 runs allowed, the difference is that I can count on the guy to show up.
   55. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 18, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6040348)
I suspect that the NL MVP is down to Tatis, Harper & Soto. Tatis hasn’t played poorly, just not matched his spectacular 1st half, while his rivals have have been fantastic since the All-Star break. Second half stats (BA/OBP/SLG):

Tatis .287/.382/.580
Harper .352/.484/.762
Soto .362/.529/.649
   56. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:19 PM (#6040351)
The NL MVP is something that we won't remotely be able to guess the winner until the season ends... The Al, it's obviously Ohtani, and was that on August 1st... There was literally nothing that could happen in the Al to change that.
   57. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:21 PM (#6040353)
Tatis .287/.382/.580
Harper .352/.484/.762
Soto .362/.529/.649


Not to be pedantic, but people need to always include rate stats and pa.... to not just feels like you are hiding something. Throw in position to also help solidify the case or what not.... As an observer you have to assume anyone in these discussions is at least average defensively.... but if one is a shortstop and the other two are corner outfielders, that is going to matter in looking at the numbers.
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6040355)
Cardinals are currently being no hit by the Padres... I mention this simply to jinx the Padres.
   59. cardsfanboy Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:26 PM (#6040356)
nevermind, Edman with a single.
   60. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:29 PM (#6040357)
The Rockies were 18-50 on the road before they headed out on their current road trip to Philadelphia, Atlanta and D.C. They've now gone 7-1 on the trip.
   61. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6040359)
Ump has given Darvish two legitimately awful called strike threes--one for the first out of the inning with two runners already on---and a third pretty bad one.

I'm watching the Padres feed and their announcers said "that's terrible."
   62. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 08:52 PM (#6040361)
Check out these two called strike threes:

It's not like these are two teams fighting for a playoff spot or anything...
   63. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:17 PM (#6040366)
Matt Carpenter busts out of an *0-FOR-30* rut with a leadoff pinch-hit double off Darvish in the 6th.
   64. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:22 PM (#6040367)
Phil Cuzzi is just so awful tonight. Just taking the bat out of hitters' hands.
   65. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:23 PM (#6040368)
Not to be pedantic, but people need to always include rate stats and pa.... to not just feels like you are hiding something. Throw in position to also help solidify the case or what not.... As an observer you have to assume anyone in these discussions is at least average defensively.... but if one is a shortstop and the other two are corner outfielders, that is going to matter in looking at the numbers.
Or one could just provide the text that preceded those stats, thereby making the point obvious to most (and not affected by PA): Harper & Soto have had great 2nd halves hitting while Tatis has dropped off a bit from his torrid 1st half. How one values their defense and inherent positional value are separate unaddressed issues.
   66. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 09:27 PM (#6040369)
Jesus, back-to-back called strike threes out of the zone against Goldschmidt and O"Neill (again!) with tying runs on base.

I guess one could say "well, he's calling pitches six inches outside, so you'd better swing" but I'd rather the ump just call those pitches correctly than have the batters expand their zone against a guy like Darvish.
   67. salvomania Posted: September 18, 2021 at 10:07 PM (#6040373)
BRO-NEILL WITH THE 2-RUN GO-AHEAD JACK! Darvish exited after 7 scoreless innings and Emilio Pagan has given up three runs in the 8th. Cardinals with a chance to push the Pads closer to the drain.
   68. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 18, 2021 at 10:45 PM (#6040376)
Altercation between Manny Machado & Fernando Tatis in Padres dugout. Their season seems to be spiraling downward.
   69. The Duke Posted: September 18, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6040377)
Wainwright did nothing to enhance his Cy case tonight. Didn’t look great, didn’t get the win and didn’t go deep. He also didn’t hurt it much but he needed a gem.
   70. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6040408)
Juan Soto’s 454 foot solo HR over the edge of the 2nd deck, # 26 of the season & # 95 of his career, gives the Nationals a 2-0 lead over Rockies. Soto may still have time to pass Bryce Harper (97), Mike Trout (98) & Frank Robinson 98), which would put him in 5th place on the Age-22 Career HR Leaderboard.
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#6040410)
good start to the game, Edman starts the game off, by hitting another league leading double, then eventually scores. 1-0 in the first inning.

edit: 2-0.

edit: 3-0.
   72. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:35 PM (#6040411)
That Soto HR also put him ahead of Trea Turner (0-for-3 so far today) for the Batting Title by a hair, .315904 to .315596, although both will look like .316 most places. This one might go down to the last PA of the last game of the season.
   73. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6040412)
5-0 after the first inning. Nice start to the game if you are a Cardinal fan.
   74. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 03:28 PM (#6040417)
Happ isn't having none of this big lead to start the game as he's made it 5-1 and now has men on second and third with just one out in the fourth inning.
   75. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6040418)
5-3... Happ apparently doesn't want to help the team make it to the post season.
   76. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 19, 2021 at 03:49 PM (#6040420)
The battle for NL Batting Title continues to tighten. Trea Turner, Juan Soto & Bryce Harper are all now listed as hitting .315, but more precisely it’s:

Turner: .315018
Harper: .314607
Soto: .314534

Turner should have 1 more PA today, and Harper plays tonight in the ESPN Sunday Night Game. It would be kind of fun to see the lead rotate among the contenders after every PA until season’s end.
   77. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6040422)
7-4 Not sure where this game is going.
   78. Snowboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 04:30 PM (#6040423)
Jays win 5-3 over Twins.
Jays have won 7 series in a row. 15-3 in Sept.
Josh Donaldson walked behind the plate after the loss, and called over Vlad Jr. They exchanged jerseys and had a photo op.
   79. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6040424)
Tyler O'Neill, 1 for 2 with two walks.
   80. Howie Menckel Posted: September 19, 2021 at 05:36 PM (#6040428)
second NL WILD CARD thru Sunday afternoon

STL 79-69 --- (W)

CIN 77-73 3 (L)
PHI 76-72 TONIGHT at NYM
SDP 76-73 3.5 (L)
   81. stanmvp48 Posted: September 19, 2021 at 05:49 PM (#6040429)
Jake Arrieta did manage to retire one batter today
   82. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2021 at 05:59 PM (#6040433)
Could be that David Ross still hasn't figured out how to handle a bullpen. Rowan Wick on to close out a 6-1 win. Took until 6-4 with bases loaded and pitch #30 of the inning for Ross to conclude that maybe this isn't Wick's day.

Relieved by Michael Rucker who has a 7.83 ERA. Granted, I'm not sure how many relievers we have on the roster with a lower ERA.

FB to the edge of the warning track in CF. Cubs win! Cubs win! Attractive blonde woman with a W t-shirt rubbing it in to her boyfriend in a Brewers shirt. It's like the good ol' days of May.
   83. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2021 at 06:10 PM (#6040434)
Poor Jake Arrieta. Not the way anybody wants to end a fine career. Since the end of May:

13 GS, 47 IP, 0-8, 9.89 ERA, 7.15 FIP, 370/436/654, 405 BABIP

Somehow his season adds up to just -2.4 WAR which isn't even (quite) among the 25 worst of the expansion era. (Steve Blass at -3.9 in a mere 89 IP is the worst. Dave Hamilton's -3.1 in just 30 IP was really something: 44 H, 28 BB, 38 ER)
   84. Mike A Posted: September 19, 2021 at 07:20 PM (#6040442)
Eddie Rosario hits for the cycle today, becoming the 2nd Brave (along with Freeman) to do so in a month.

In the previous 110 years, only 3 Braves had hit for the cycle (Albert Hall in 1987, Mark Kotsay in 2008, and Freddie in 2016).

Big win with the Phillies breathing down the Bravos' necks. C'mon Mets, can't you at least win one?
   85. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2021 at 07:55 PM (#6040448)
Albert Hall in 1987, Mark Kotsay in 2008

Legends!
   86. Howie Menckel Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:01 PM (#6040449)
AL WILD CARD thru Sunday

BOS 86-65 +1 (W)
TOR 84-65 --- (W)

NYY 83-67 1.5 (L)
OAK 82-67 2 (W)

..............

NL LEAST thru part of Sunday

ATL 77-69 --- (W)

PHI 75-72 TONIGHT at NYM

.............

NL BEST thru Sunday
SFG 97-53 --- (L)

LAD 96-54 1 (W)
   87. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6040450)
The Cardinals remaining schedule is the Brewers and Cubs... That could have been an interesting final two weeks if not for the fact that the Brewers have run away with the division and the Cubs stopped showing up in July. Now the Cardinals are basically playing teams that don't care what happen because it won't change a damn thing.
   88. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:22 PM (#6040454)
Now the Cardinals are basically playing teams that don't care what happen because it won't change a damn thing.


Except the fact that each club loathes the Cardinals and it would be most satisfying to see the Cards miss the playoffs. I'm sure Cub and Brewers players would be more than happy to be responsible for this Cardinal misfortune.
   89. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:47 PM (#6040456)
Okay, that was cool... TJ Freidl hits a homrun (for the Reds) Mookie Betts convinces the fans to throw the ball back (It's Friedl's first major league hit) and then Mookie Betts (A Dodger) gives the fans a baseball bat for throwing the ball back.
   90. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6040457)

Except the fact that each club loathes the Cardinals and it would be most satisfying to see the Cards miss the playoffs. I'm sure Cub and Brewers players would be more than happy to be responsible for this Cardinal misfortune.


Honestly I did think that was a potential thing, but outside of playing to win simply to win, I don't think it really adds any adrenaline to the equation.
   91. Mike A Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:50 PM (#6040458)
Albert Hall in 1987, Mark Kotsay in 2008

Legends!
Yeah. Albert Hall has to be one of the most unlikely cycle hitters - .335 career SLG% and all of 8 3B and 5! HRs in his career (805 ABs).

Hammerin' Hank never did it despite good speed, 98 career triples, and a few HRs.

But to show how lucky this achievement is, Freeman has 25 triples in his 12-year career and 2 cycles.
   92. The Duke Posted: September 19, 2021 at 09:17 PM (#6040461)
I read the news today, oh boy
Four thousand holes in Blackburn, Lancashire
And though the holes were rather small
They had to count them all
Now they know how many holes it takes to fill the Albert Hall
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: September 19, 2021 at 09:22 PM (#6040463)
John Mabry has 6 career triples and a cycle. (96 career homeruns also)
   94. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 19, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6040465)
Albert Hall has to be one of the most unlikely cycle hitters


Is John Olerud the most unlikely/luckiest multiple cycle player in history?

13 total triples. The years he hit for the cycle (1997/2001) are years where he hit only one triple that year.
   95. The Yankee Clapper Posted: September 19, 2021 at 10:22 PM (#6040471)
Eddie Rosario hits for the cycle today, becoming the 2nd Brave (along with Freeman) to do so in a month.
On only 7 pitches, reportedly a record for the fewest pitches seen in a cycle, at least for when pitch-by-pitch data is available.
   96. Walt Davis Posted: September 19, 2021 at 11:03 PM (#6040473)
C'mon now, Cubs are 8-8 in Sept, not pushovers. We took 2 of 3 from Cinci just a couple weeks ago. We have the best offense in AAA ... alas, possibly the worst pitching in AAA. More seriously, not caring isn't the Cubs' problem right now. Pretty much everybody on the team is trying to win a job for next year.
   97. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: September 20, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#6040511)
Rosario also tied the record for fewest runs scored during a cycle. I'm sure someone else better at bbref can figure out who else only scored from their home run doing a cycle, but that seems pretty hard to do.

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