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Friday, November 04, 2022

Heyman: Ranking top 30 free agents in Major League baseball

1. Aaron Judge: The Yankees are feeling more confident this week. One reason I’d guess he will stay is that he shows great loyalty sticking with his longtime, very small-time agent. Teams: Yankees, Giants, Dodgers. Expert’s prediction: $330M, 9 years.

2. Jacob deGrom: Zack Wheeler told The Post’s Mike Puma deGrom likes being a Met. Teams: Rangers, Mets, Dodgers. Expert: $125M, 3 years.

3. Carlos Correa: Great defense, postseason pedigree and still 28, but interest last winter was disappointing. Teams: Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Twins, Cubs, Phillies. Expert: $275M, 9 years.

4. Trea Turner: Some think he prefers to go east, but he has said he liked Los Angeles and will consider all. Folks love him. Teams: Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Red Sox, Cubs, Braves. Expert: $275M, 9 years.

5. Justin Verlander: The sure AL Cy Young should get multiyear deal at 39. Teams: Astros, Yankees, Dodgers. Expert: $75M, 2 years.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 04, 2022 at 11:13 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency

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   1. The Duke Posted: November 04, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6104211)
There are tons of teams getting ready to spend. The Central teams have all been slashing payroll for two years. Others like Baltimore are going to spend more. And then the big guys like Giants, Dodgers and Astros have plenty of room to add.

Who's not going to spend? Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Tampa, and a few Others.

It's going to be a big blowout this year. Watch out

   2. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: November 04, 2022 at 12:12 PM (#6104214)
Being a Tigers fan reading this article is like being a poor little kid looking at toys, sadly pressing his nose against the shop window. (The Tigers are mentioned exactly three times in this 30-player article, under Nimmo [#11], Contreras [#14] and Benintendi [#22]...none of whom are likely to come to Detroit.)
   3. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: November 04, 2022 at 12:27 PM (#6104215)
5. Justin Verlander: The sure AL Cy Young should get multiyear deal at 39. Teams: Astros, Yankees, Dodgers. Expert: $75M, 2 years.
Can anyone other than Heyman see the Yankees re-signing Judge *and* paying $35+M for a pitcher? And if Judge bolts, doesn't that suggest an even more dire need for spending on bats, not arms, in the Bronx?
   4. Tin Angel Posted: November 04, 2022 at 12:33 PM (#6104216)
Being a Tigers fan reading this article is like being a poor little kid looking at toys, sadly pressing his nose against the shop window.


You guys just got Báez, one of the biggest free agents from last offseason...what more could you possibly want?
   5. Cris E Posted: November 04, 2022 at 12:54 PM (#6104218)
Some of those numbers seem low. Correa and Turner should both beat $30m per year, or at least get the same money over 8 years.
   6. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: November 04, 2022 at 01:00 PM (#6104219)
The scary thing is Baez actually led Detroit in WAR last year: a whopping 2.6. And for only $20 million! (Granted, it's a better bargain than the $32MM they laid out for Miggy's -1.0 WAR, but...)

If Baez could return to his 6 WAR production of 2017-18, that would be great. But he turns 30 next month, so I'm not holding my breath.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 04, 2022 at 01:50 PM (#6104221)
Some of those numbers seem low. Correa and Turner should both beat $30m per year, or at least get the same money over 8 years.

You'd think so but Correa didn't find what he wanted last year.

Did Heyman really write that about Judge's agent?
   8. John Northey Posted: November 04, 2022 at 01:56 PM (#6104222)
For the past 3 years the Jays have been chasing down guys at the top 5 level each winter. First Ryu (after coming in 2nd on Cole), then Springer, then Gausman (2nd on Verlander according to Verlander himself). With the massive long term deals coming for Vlad and Bo odds are the Jays will finally be quiet, but I wouldn't be shocked if they tried to get Verlander again. IMO the smart move would be to sign Stripling for 3 years at what Verlander would probably cost for 1, then hope for the best with the rest (White, Kikuchi, prospects) but boy would Verlander look nice with Manoah & Gausman at the top of the rotation, then Berrios as a 4th starter. Bassitt, Tyler Anderson, and Noah Syndergaard are all solid, but would be backup plans for the Jays I suspect.

It will be a very interesting winter. I suspect we'll look back in April and think the teams that attack fast did best.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: November 04, 2022 at 05:16 PM (#6104244)
On the lower ranked

The expert, who I suspect is a very big-time agent, predicts 8/$225 for Bogaerts. I'll say no way. That would take him through 37 -- 3 years in age longer than Story/Baez and topping them by $85 total. There are reasons to be more willing to take a longer-term risk on X (he's the better hitter) but he's not elite enough to get past 36 and I'm not sure he'll go past 34-35. If you were curious, Bogaerts is represented by a very big-time agent. The expert also predicts Swanson will get one year longer and $35 M more than Baez/Story.

Last year teams committed $600 M to Seager, Baez, Story (22 years total) and added Correa at $35; our expert expects teams to front up with $950 M for 33 years of Correa, Turner, X, Dansby. A 50% jump in years and 60% in salary isn't impossible I suppose.



   10. JRVJ Posted: November 04, 2022 at 05:58 PM (#6104251)
The Phillies are sure to spend and spend a lot.

It's reasonable to believe that they will have between 1 and 1.5MM extra spectators at the Bank (that being the difference between the 2022 Phillies attendance and the attendance during the glory days of 2008-2012).

   11. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 04, 2022 at 06:39 PM (#6104254)
Did Heyman really write that about Judge's agent?


It's either a bad joke or some extremely clumsy shade at Heyman's best friend's chief rival.
   12. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 04, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6104257)
I know he's a bit old for a first-time FA, but that Judge figure is low. The man just hit 62 home runs, and was the biggest story of the summer. Dude is going to set records with his next contract.
   13. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: November 04, 2022 at 07:47 PM (#6104258)
The Phillies are sure to spend and spend a lot.

It's reasonable to believe that they will have between 1 and 1.5MM extra spectators at the Bank (that being the difference between the 2022 Phillies attendance and the attendance during the glory days of 2008-2012).


In a world without a luxury tax, I might agree. But they are already on the hook for an estimated $210 mil for next year, and they have a lot of money out for the next several years. 3 years from now they will be paying over $90 mil to Harper, Realmuto, Castellanos, and Schwarber. They have Nola under contract for just 1 more year. They will have the money. Will they be allowed to spend it is the question.
   14. JRVJ Posted: November 04, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6104262)
13, They already blew past the 2022 luxury tax.

The revenues they can earn from keeping the fanbase engaged are significantly higher than the penalties that they would accrue (as I see them, they are going to be paying 30% on anything above $233MM in 2022. The numbers get a bit complicated above $253MM, so I don't want to get bogged down on that).
   15. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: November 04, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6104263)
What about draft pick losses?
   16. Walt Davis Posted: November 04, 2022 at 11:02 PM (#6104268)
Well, the Judge numbers are nearly $37 AAV and take him through age 39. It would be only the 5th-highest in total, but all of those contracts are longer because the players were substantially younger at signing. In AAV, according to Cot's, it's only second to Scherzer.

Or the best comparison might be that Trout has 8 years at just over $37 remaining on his contract, through age 38. Trout is about 8 months older than Judge. He might well get more money than Trout but I don't think he really deserves it. I suspect Judge will face a choice between setting a position player AAV record or "the most for a player's 30s" record (or whatever you want to call his competition with Trout).

It was a great year but it was just one great year. He will obviously put butts in seats (or keep them filled for NYY) for whoever signs him but that's an effect for 1 or 2 years unless the team does well. If he hadn't hit 62 HR (or close to it), he'd never be offered 9 years, he'd get 7 max.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6104522)
Unless we get a hot stove thread, I'm going to use this one for that.

Cardinal fans are already arguing over how the Cardinals are going to screw up this off season. Funny thing is that every year they still post a winning record, and every off season the fans ##### and moan about the fact that they didn't sign anyone. I just want them to make a good faith effort to fix problems and not overspend by too much. If they approach who they want/need and can't get a reasonable deal, move on. Dream scenario for me as a Cardinal fan is signing Correa, trading for Salvador Perez, signing either Kershaw or Verlander to a two-three year contract. Other options signing Contreras instead of making a trade for Perez or trading for Sean Murphy. Either way the Cardinals need to get someone better than Austin Allen/Knizner/Herrera to start next season.


I have visions of a Goldy/Edman/Correa/Arenado infield dancing in my head...where Correa was the worse player by bWar last year. (which is funny because I would almost bet money he has a better season next year than all three of the other ones)

I'm not sure what Correa is asking for, but I would be inclined to give it to him. (I do have one friend who doesn't want Correa or Turner because they would block Winn. One of my few Cardinal fans on facebook who doesn't want the Cardinals buying every free agent) I would sign him for that 9/275 in a heartbeat though. I think that is probably a little low for him to be honest.
   18. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6104524)
It's either a bad joke or some extremely clumsy shade at Heyman's best friend's chief rival.


I would say it's the latter. Why mention the size of an agency unless it has an underlying meaning and considering we all know about Heyman's nose being shoved where it's permanently stuff, any comment negative comment about another agent is clearly being directed by his buddy. Nobody thinks of Heyman as someone with integrity.
   19. Darren Posted: November 06, 2022 at 06:32 PM (#6104573)
The expert, who I suspect is a very big-time agent, predicts 8/$225 for Bogaerts. I'll say no way. That would take him through 37 -- 3 years in age longer than Story/Baez and topping them by $85 total. There are reasons to be more willing to take a longer-term risk on X (he's the better hitter) but he's not elite enough to get past 36 and I'm not sure he'll go past 34-35.


I agree that the number is high and on the source, but the Story/Baez comps are tough. They were both one year younger, yes, but they also both got opt outs. And also, they're just really in his class as free agents. Story was coming off his worst year--98 wRC+, 2.8 WAR--and had injury questions. Baez had a better year, but was still only 117 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR, had a disastrous 2020, and there was always the concern about his BB/K numbers catching up with him. Meanwhile, Bogaerts 6.1 WAR was the best of his career, and his defensive numbers were the best of his career (and for all of the hand wringing over his defense, the new UZR has him slightly above average or better every year since 2018). Add to that that you're unlikely to find a more consistently very good hitter in baseball--last 5 years of wRC+: 133, 141, 129, 130, 134. Even if he needs to move to 3B, there's good reason to think he'll remain quite valuable there. So although I don't think he's getting 8/225, I think 7/200 is about right. Why the Red Sox offered 4/90 at one point this season is beyond my understanding.

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