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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, October 25, 2022Heyman: Time for Hal Steinbrenner to open Yankees’ coffers — and here’s how
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: October 25, 2022 at 10:03 AM | 50 comment(s)
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1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 25, 2022 at 10:16 AM (#6102504)This year should be about cutting the deadwood, and getting younger. Sign Judge, unless the number is absurd, but focus on getting rid of Donaldson, Hicks, and Kiner-Falefa as cheaply as possible. Cut bait on Chapman, Britton and any other expensive RPs. Build a cheapo bullpen. Let Peraza and Cabrera take the left side of the infield; they couldn't hit any worse. Try and find a C, and a decent LF.
I mean maybe it is satire.
Is Judge the first 28 WAR player in MLB history?
Is Judge the first 28 WAR player in MLB history?
2nd half of the season they were a .500 team WITH Judge.
This is just about the same article, but I think he’s serious.
They've already got a good LF in Benintendi, and if they resign Judge their starting OF should be pretty well set with Bader in CF.
That said, I agree with everythingd you wrote about the left side of the infield. I don't think IKF was as bad as he looked at his worst, but even at his best he's been little more than a temporary stopgap. And Donaldson has been an embarrassment in too many ways to count, from his strikeouts to his loafing on phantom home runs.
The Bader addition was a very good one and they do need to sign Judge. Another starter, maybe. They did go flat in the second half and it's worth getting a handle on why that happened.
Just firing Aaron Boone ought to buy them a lot
They've already got a good LF in Benintendi
He's a FA, as is Rizzo.
Well, that's a use of resources that they may need elsewhere. Right now all they actually have on the hitting side, that I'd want to go into 2023 with, is a 2B, a DH and a CF, and a pair of SS prospects.
This is mostly standard fanboy scapegoating. These aren't guys you salivate over as full-time starters but they are all valuable players.
Hicks -- why? He's only owed about 3/$30 and is a perfectly fine 4th OF. That's a bit of an overpay but that means you'd probably have to eat about $10-15 M to move him and what's the point in that if you're just gonna have to turn around and spend your savings on another 4th OF?
IKF ... easy-peasy, you just non-tender him, doesn't require much "focus." But again why? IKF was a poor hitting, excellent fielding above-average player (7.2 WAR, 2.1 WAA) who had a season of ... hold on ... poor hitting and excellent fielding resulting in 2.9 WAR and 1.2 WAA. He'll probably get around $8-9 in arb, that's hardly burdensome and, worst case, he's your super backup IF.
Donaldson ... another problematic above-average player. This one is at least actually expensive. Turning 37, he's probably in steep decline but he's also just one season removed from a 127 OPS+ and 3 WAR. He is owed (probably) either 1/$27 or 1/$29 (Cot's is a bit unclear) which is a lot for what he might produce (and even more for what he'll likely produce) -- I'll WAG they'll have to eat about half of that to move him.
Alas, there are no 3B on the market. As in apparently zero -- at least the list I saw was down to #35 (Conforto #24) without a single one listed. So realistically there are three options -- sign two of the SSs moving one to 3B (which probably means no Judge), sign one of the SS and keep IKF and go defense-first at 3B, sign one of the SS play a kid at 3B or live with Donaldson. Maybe there's a good pending FA 3B out there that they can acquire for (say) Volpe.
Note, Volpe was pretty good at AA this year but struggled at AAA with a poor OPS and 30% K-rate -- you want to give him at least another half-year which probably means another 1.5 years before he's a good MLBer (just based on general pattern for prospects). But Cabrera looks ready enough -- I'm not sure he's an above-average player yet (certainly a nice 1/3 season) but give him a shot or trade him to somebody who will. Although if DRS is to be believed, he's the next Clemente with the glove (+9 in 208 IP in RF) ... if those RF numbers are at all for real, I think I'd be looking at him as my future CF.
Anyway, sign a big SS, maybe preferably one that's OK with moving to 3B, stick Cabrera at SS or 3B, keep IKF as the backup everywhere, keep Hicks as 4th OF and "oh wait, that's right, Benintendi is just Benintendi" platoon and "oh, maybe there's a reason the Cards never gave Bader much more than 400 PA in a season" replacement, Keep Volpe waiting in the wings until he's needed or forces his way onto the team, dump Donaldson. Sign Judge and some pitching, Rizzo. Feel free to re-sign Benintendi, you won't have much competition -- not sure why he's not a problem but IKF and Donaldson are. He's a more durable Hicks that nobody thinks can play CF. If Cabrera can put up a 100 OPS+, he's probably better than Benintendi already.
Hiddn in here is the new reality of the "bullpenization" of position players. Qualified batters have been in decline for a decade. No good team will give Benintendi 650 PAs. He might just squeak to qualified (521 and 536 the last two) because he's LHB but that will still leave 200 LF PAs to fill. Here's the full list of qualified LFs (i.e. 502+ PA as an LF) in 2022
Kwan 510
Happ 592
Profar 627
Yelich 514
Schwarber 599
Of all the people, Jurickson Profar is the only everyday LF in baseball. Obviously most of those guys and the guys who ended up around 475 LF PAs picked up some PAs elsewhere (mainly DH) but it's still leaving a lot of playing time to cover. Houston's leading LF was Yordan with just 243 PA. The Cards, Dodgers and Braved didn't give anybody more than 300 PA in LF; the Braves got about -1.5 WAR out of their LF. The story is similar at 2B (7 500+, only Semien and Cronenworth 600+). 3B (11/7) and SS (16/9) are positions where you find lots of full-time players
Obviously Hicks and IKF and probably not Donaldson should be 600+ PA players anymore either. The notion that the Yanks can be content with a "starting" OF of Benintendi, Bader and Judge is ... I want to say ludicrous. You're likely about 500 PA short of a full OF and, if you're the Yanks, you want those 500 PA to be pretty good so your non-Judge OF is at least average overall. Benintendi, Bader and Hicks should add up to about 1400 PA of 4-5 WAR ... for about $25 M which is probably around market price for reliable cromulence. Rizzo, Torres, a FA SS, LeMahieu, IKF -- like it or not -- hopefully eats up about 2500 IF PAs. Cabrera covers the remaining IF/OF PAs. Then the question of how healthy Stanton is.
500+ / 600+ PA at each position, ignoring C (not including PAs spent elsewhere so it will undercount the total of qualified players ... and traded guys like Bell and Soto will be missed) ... obviously this positional distribution might be flukey
1B -- 15/5
2B -- 7/3
SS -- 16/9
3B -- 11/7
LF -- 5/1
CF -- 7/2
RF -- 4/1
DH -- 3/1 (Ohtani, JDM, Cruz ... nobody else was even close to 500)
Who knows how typical that is in today's game but this year SS, 1B and 3B were the only spots you were at all likely to find a true everyday starter. The Phils' had 500+ players at C, 1B, 3B and LF; the Astros, bucking the trend a bit, at 2B, 3B, SS and RF. Obviously a guy like Judge was everyday, just spread around DH/CF/RF but that just drives home the point of how cobbled together the OF (in particular) is these days. That sort of job-splitting is pretty clearly by design not just injury/performance related. The Yanks will want all 4 of Benintendi, Bader, Hicks and Cabrera (or their equivalents) around along with Judge and that's before any injuries hit.
Mix'n'match is where it's at. We (I) thought that with expanded bullpens and shortened benches that platoons and rotations would become less common, Instead the nerds have figured out a way to move things in the other direction. The 26th man helps but this started before the 26th man and it wasn't until the middle of this year that the 13-pitcher limit was enforced. Nobody has paid it much attention but I assume the AAA shuttle is running frequently for position players as well. However the position players hopping off the AAA shuttle are usually not useful other than in absorbing PT. It would be nice if somebody took a closer look at mix'n'match to try to figure out what sorts of patterns are common -- how much is traditional R/L platoon, how much off/def, how much seems just rest-related, how much is "this guy plays everyday but at three different spots, allowing for a rotation among 3-4 players across the positions he isn't playing today" or any other ways of spreading out PT.
This potentially relates to some other "trends." Why are average-ish players so cheap on the FA market? Because they're slated for just 450 PAs even if they're the "starter." Why are there so many good SS at the moment? Partly because they're the only guys playing every day -- teams are putting and keeping their best players (at least best IFs) at SS, ppossibly aided by the shift helping to cover for defensive inadequacies. How come I only know the names of 3 2B? Why is this guy who can't hit playing CF today? Why is Aaron Hicks on my team?
Well, that's a use of resources that they may need elsewhere. Right now all they actually have on the hitting side, that I'd want to go into 2023 with, is a 2B, a DH and a CF, and a pair of SS prospects.
Curious who you'd think would be an available upgrade over Benintendi, or even Rizzo, especially taking age into consideration. Brantley's the best available LF, but he's 7 years older and injury prone.
The 2B is pretty durable but still "just" 131 starts this year, 123 in 2021 and <70% in 2020. You've got 35 starts to cover.
The DH is infamously fragile. Over the course of his 5 years in the Bronx, he's started about 60% of their games. You've got 60-65 starts to cover.
The CF has never had more than 427 PA or 101 starts in a season. You've got another 60-65 starts to cover.
So across those 3 guys you've got a full 162 starts to cover. Or if you prefer, across those 3 guys, you shouldn't expect more than about 325 starts so you're just under 1/4 to a full team. You sure you want to just discard Hicks and IKF?
This is mostly standard fanboy scapegoating. These aren't guys you salivate over as full-time starters but they are all valuable players.
Donaldson and Kiner can be be replaced by Cabrera and Peraza for free. Any money you save can be used to fill other holes. They're only above average if you buy DRS completely. Fangraphs has both below average. Since Kiner-Falefa was benched for poor D, I'd believe FG at least on him.
Curious who you'd think would be an available upgrade over Benintendi, or even Rizzo, especially taking age into consideration. Brantley's the best available LF, but he's 7 years older and injury prone.
Haven't looked yet. I'd like to brink Rizzo back too, but we don't know the cost. They need to add an impact bat somewhere, and lineup depth everywhere.
Suprisingly, none of the the suggested targets are Boras guys.
Well, of course it's satire! The article even says that Yankees legend Reggie Jackson is now working for the Astros! I mean, gimme a break...!
not sure if it's accurate, but it seems plausible based on his personality (I want to say "typical laidback California personality," til I remember that all of the most vicious stadium fan fighting episodes seem to take place there).
the other claim is that he never got past Cashman revealing the details of the Yankees' offer just before the season started. also plausible, if unproven.
a caller the other day said he has seats in the right field stands, and he was annoyed that Judge got an earful from the home crowd for messing up on that fly ball that Bader ultimately dropped just before a 2-run HR.
I think he's a Giant.
to be more specific, a giant Giant.
for Aaron Boone haters, Ian O'Connor today has one called "Aaron Boone hasn't learned from his Yankees mistakes"
says if there was a "Managers Draft," he might not go in thr top 10 yada yada yada
Instinctively I say that much is obviously true, but at the same time I had to remember there are something like 6 managers in the league that played less than a season.
Of course we've talked about it plenty of times before, different managers are better for different teams. But yes, I'm fairly certain that right now if I was the Yankees and had a shot at any manager on the market, I don't think Boone makes my top ten list either.
As far as the other comments about Judge, I don't doubt that a portion of it is true, but I don't think that is going to matter in the end. I've seen similar comments expressed in the past (one version or another) and it ultimately not making a difference.
Obviously, if the Yankees offer him the biggest boatload of cash, that's going to be hard to pass up. But I wonder how often highly sought-after guys get all the way to free agency and ultimately stay with the same club.
Well if he thinks that was bad, imagine playing RF in Yankee stadium wearing a different uniform. The fans will be relentless. However I would imagine a guaranteed $330+ million would deafen the noise a bit if he's out there in a Giants or Dodgers uniform.
I'm just really keen to see what he gets paid. He's not a young guy and when healthy he does produce at such an elite level that $40+ per year is on the table, but for how long would you offer?
If he's in a Giants or Dodgers uniform, he'll only be in Yankee Stadium an average of 1.5 games a year with the new schedule, I think. That's bearable.
Yep, realise that, but that 1 game is going to be a doozy!
I mean, if there’s one organization that would sign him after he finally succeeded in offing the Queen…
... it's not the Royals.
Again, stop being solely locked in to BRef numbers. FG has Kiner at 1.3 fWAR in 2022, well below average. And the Yankees benched him for bad D. Why would any team pay $8M for a medicore SS when they have THREE young SS, two of whom are clearly ready for the bigs.
For Donaldson, giving him +5 on his fielding, he's at 1.6 fWAR. Again, below average, old and making $20M+. He's also apparently a huge jerk, who doesn't hustle. Why not clear as much of that salary as possible and play the young guys?
Two mediocre players, who are not getting better, and will make $30M are a drag on a contending team. Non-tender Falefa, save what you can on Donaldson, and that's probably enough cash to retain Rizzo.
As an outsider, watching Judge riled into talking for the next ten years from the west coast about how shitty the Yankees fans are would definitely be entertaining.
The Nats have already locked in my season ticket group for 2023 and can't imagine the Yankees process is all that different.
Yeah, I don't recall that at all. The Mariners offered him a lot more money. Everyone knows players will go for the money. Reggie Freakin jackson left as a FA only a few years after becoming Mr. October.
The Nats have already locked in my season ticket group for 2023 and can't imagine the Yankees process is all that different.
I don't know when the Yankees' automatic renewal kicks / kicked in, but not every season ticket holder uses that option. And if Judge is missing in 2023 and the Yankees don't make up for his loss in a Majorly Major way, that's bound to have some / many of those currently using the automatic renewal option choosing to cancel it for 2024.
And since many games included in those season ticket plans wind up on StubHub, the effect of No Judge on those resale prices could be considerable, especially if the team gets off to a slow start. That's also not likely to encourage further renewals.
Pettitte left almost 10 years before Cano.
I know a lot of people don't agree with me, but I'll just post again because it's lunch.
If you think teams — and especially the Yankees — are wringing their financial hands over attendance and merchandise revenue, get out of the 1990s.
"MLB.TV has set numerous records for streaming through the first part of the 2022 season. Fans have watched more than 2.8 billion minutes of live games on MLB.TV, the most-watched 40-day period in the history of MLB.TV. Total games watched are up +9% compared to last season’s previously record total on MLB.TV over the same time period."
Heck, get out of the 2000s
"Major League Baseball made $1.19 billion in annual sponsorship rights fees ... Total revenue was only $3.5 billion as recently as 2001."
The money, and increasingly the viewers, are coming from other things.
The Yankees are not worried that not signing Judge will have a meaningful impact on the amount of money they'll bring in.
Right, but that doesn't mean NY fans aren't used to players leaving. FA always leave any team because someone else wants them more.
He saw in the post season what happens with Yankee fans booing him, and it's going to be a diminishing returns level of productivity ... he is unlikely to repeat 2022.
The Giants fans are more forgiving.
Yankees don't get blamed for cheaping out that way.
Yankees don't get blamed for cheaping out that way.
Probably the best long run outcome for the Yankees.
Seriously. It's not like Cashman/Steinbrenner/NYY got any retrospective credit for their 7/$175M offer to Cano even though he ultimately got 10/$240M. Coincidentally, Cano was the same age as Judge when he reached free agency.
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