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Sunday, November 06, 2022

Hot Stove OMNICHATTER 2022

Hombre Brotani Posted: November 06, 2022 at 01:29 PM | 98 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 02:21 PM (#6104542)
Don't forget to bookmark this and comeback frequently. (Or if there is still a way to stcky threads someone could do that)

First.!!! (you know the place where the Cardinals will be in the standings.)

As I said in the other thread, I have hopes for my team to do something of significance, like naming Matt Holliday bench coach. Maybe some other things will happen also.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 06, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6104543)
I'm very pessimistic about this off-season, as a Yankee fan. I feel like they'll do a bunch of cosmetic stuff, and bring back a team that has all the same flaws, and no real shot at a pennant or World Series, other than a total fluke. Even if they keep Judge, the offense is till short 2-3 impact bats, depending on Stanton. A lineup with Donaldson, Kiner-Faleda, and Trivino staring is just unacceptable.
   3. The Duke Posted: November 06, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6104545)
I expect a lot of action early in the period as soon as free agency opens up in a few days. In the meantime, there are already options being exercised.

My personal prediction for the Cardinals is Correa (maybe Turner since there's been a lot of chatter that the Cards are doing a bunch of research on him ) and a trade for Murphy (which looks like Gorman and Liberatore ) followed by an extension to lock in catcher for 5-8 years. Extensions for carlson, Walker, Montgomery, Helsley.

This would leave an outfield of O'Neill, Carlson and Walker with Nootbar and Yepez on bench. Infield of Arenado, Correa, Edman and Goldy with Donovan rotating around. Murphy at catcher. Rotation is Flaherty, wainwright, matz, Montgomery and Mikolas with hudson as the swing starter.

They already have a deep bullpen. That's a team that can win a division and hopefully not run into a Philly buzzsaw in round 1.
   4. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: November 06, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6104547)
I'm waiting for Arte Moreno to do one of a few things...1) trade Ohtani for a bunch of stuff that isn't worth it; 2) sign Ohtani to a mega deal like 6 years/$300 million and sign another big name (Correa/Turner/Rodon/Judge) and just be ridiculously dumb; 3) tell the GM to fill the holes economically which leads to another sub-.500 record; or 4) they actually make a couple of smart moves (Rodon/Nimmo/Conforto, etc)...

But, we'll see which way that al goes....

Not optimistic...
   5. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 06, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6104548)
I'm waiting for Arte Moreno to do one of a few things...
Given that the team is for sale, I wonder if he'll do anything at all. The process of finding new ownership groups and actually making the money work takes months, sometimes more than a year, and it's not often you see a team make big aggressive expensive changes during that stretch. More often than not, the outgoing ownership guts a team in preparation for a sale.

If the Angels move Ohtani and Trout, I'd be out, 40 years of fandom be damned.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6104549)
The big names on the market (borrowed from Heyman's article on the top 30, feel free to add more lower tier, blame him for the ordering. It is pretty clearly NY biased as he's in the Post)

Judge
deGrom
Correa
Turner
Verlander
Xander
Rodon
Dansby
Diaz
Nimmo
Abreu
Kershaw
Senga (NPB)
Contreras
Bassitt
Tyler Anderson
Rizzo
Jansen
Taillon
Martin Perez
Taijuan Walker
Benintendi
Noah
Profar (really?)
Josh Bell
Jose Quintana
Eflin
Conforto
Vazquez
Ottavino
   7. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6104552)
The Cubs ... could be interesting. Last year I assumed they'd trade Contreras and not really do anything. Instead they kept him and signed Stroman and Suzuki. They had a pretty solid year overall, had some nice debuts (Steele, Thompson, Morel, the anonymous pen) and, while clearly not trying to make the postseason, resembled an organization that kinda knew what it was doing.

So now ... I have no idea. Among the position players, the only long-term piece really in place is Nico Hoerner (3 years control) -- good player but not a guy you build a team around exactly. Add Suzuki and Happ (pending FA) and there are still 6 holes to fill. Brennen Davis willl be up soon enough but the kids don't seem ready yet. Conforto on a 1-year "prove you're healthy and can still hit" deal for OF/DH/1B (can he play it?) rotation would make sense.** Among Abreu, Rizzo, Bell or maybe somebody like Voit via trade, there are enough 1B out there I expect them to get somebody there. Rumors abound about signing a big SS and moving Nico back to 2B -- that would suggext they expect the kids to be ready sooner rather than later.

C is just a mess right now -- and even if they did re-sign Contreras, I'd expect him to spend more time at DH/1B than C so they'll still need to address it. Gomes is signed for one more year but they need to add more.

So I can see the Cubs doing nearly nothing on the position player side (min is to re-sign Contreras or a 1B) to having a lineup featuring Correa, Abreu, Conforto and maybe even Contreras.

On the pitching side -- obviously a stud starter would be nice. Although 3 of the studliest of the last decade are on that list, the age/injury questions around them suggest they are not the answer for a Cub team proably still targting something likee 2024-28, not 2023-25. Rodon maybe. Bassitt seems very Stroman-y and more plausible for the Cubs. I'd be stunned if they signed a big money closer but I could see an Ottavino type maybe and certainly rolling the dice on 2023's David Roberston, etc.

Theo's kids arrived at least one year earlier than I really thought possiible so maybe Jed's will too.

** Nimmo with his CF ability would be a better fit but will require a multi-year deal. If they did sign him, I'd guess they let Happ go.
   8. reech Posted: November 06, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6104554)
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34966621/sources-edwin-diaz-mets-agree-5-year-102-million-deal

Diaz back to the Mets 5 years 102 million.
Uncle Steve ain't messing around.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: November 06, 2022 at 05:15 PM (#6104560)
close enough

11.06... Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Mets and Edwin Díaz have agreed to a five-year, $102 million contract extension.
Spin: Díaz is officially staying in New York for at least the next half-decade. Passan adds that the long-term contract, which is pending a physical, includes a sixth-year option for the 2028 season, and also includes an opt-out and full no-trade clause. The 28-year-old impending free agent right-hander recorded 32 saves last season to go along with a microscopic 1.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 118/18 K/BB ratio across62 innings (61 appearances). It's the largest contract for a relief pitcher in baseball history.

..........

(Heyman projected Diaz will get 5 years, $105M so let's call that a W.
and now the Mets have THREE MLB pitchers under wraps - Scherzer, Drew Smith, and EDiaz)
   10. Willard Baseball Posted: November 06, 2022 at 05:26 PM (#6104562)
Cubs have to spend money and draw more fans next year. I hope they can make a splash without making trades. I would love it if they re-signed Contreras, but it sounds like he is gone.

My Cubs wishlist:

Correa
Abreu
Kiermaier (1 year deal)
Any random backup C

Rodon
Two solid relievers

This gives the team a chance to be projected for 84ish wins and sneak into the playoffs and sets the team up for a bigger run and better team in 2024.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6104563)
I expect a lot of action early in the period as soon as free agency opens up in a few days. In the meantime, there are already options being exercised.

My personal prediction for the Cardinals is Correa (maybe Turner since there's been a lot of chatter that the Cards are doing a bunch of research on him ) and a trade for Murphy (which looks like Gorman and Liberatore ) followed by an extension to lock in catcher for 5-8 years. Extensions for carlson, Walker, Montgomery, Helsley.

This would leave an outfield of O'Neill, Carlson and Walker with Nootbar and Yepez on bench. Infield of Arenado, Correa, Edman and Goldy with Donovan rotating around. Murphy at catcher. Rotation is Flaherty, wainwright, matz, Montgomery and Mikolas with hudson as the swing starter.

They already have a deep bullpen. That's a team that can win a division and hopefully not run into a Philly buzzsaw in round 1.


Gorman really does feel like he's already an A's type of player. If we sign Correa or Turner, it does give us an excess of infielders. You keep Donovan for his versatility and give up Gorman in a heartbeat, need to find a challenge trade for DeJong(I would almost even consider Patrick Corbin if he can pass a physical--- if the Nats kick in some incentive)

I do think some Cardinal fans are sleeping on Moises Gomez.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 05:42 PM (#6104565)
The Cubs ... could be interesting. Last year I assumed they'd trade Contreras and not really do anything. Instead they kept him and signed Stroman and Suzuki. They had a pretty solid year overall, had some nice debuts (Steele, Thompson, Morel, the anonymous pen) and, while clearly not trying to make the postseason, resembled an organization that kinda knew what it was doing.


I've been under the assumption that Turner is a Cub within the next three weeks, I don't think the courting process is going to be prolonged.
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6104568)

Diaz back to the Mets 5 years 102 million.


That might be a bit much for a closer, but the team can afford it, and he's become a marketable star now so there is some immediate return on investment/fan engagement with that signing. It's moves like that, even if they fail, which are good for engaging with the fanbase.
   14. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 06, 2022 at 06:35 PM (#6104574)
We're paying 20m/year for relief pitchers now? Ick.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 07:00 PM (#6104576)
One thing about the past couple off seasons is that the number of people on youtube that are talking about the hot stove has constantly gone up a lot, but sadly I can't find myself energized enough to watch them as most of them are pretty much the same stuff I or Duke or Walt or any other rando on the internet will be talking about, and it's just not interesting enough to hold my attention and takes too long to get to the point, something I could have glanced over in 1/5th of the time reading an article. Yes I prefer blogs over youtube output for this type of stuff, but the monetizing of it is just not there.

I like trade ideas, revamp team concepts etc, but getting to the point is also a factor. (and on top of it, way too many people who post on youtube start with the negative and I'm 99% sure that every youtuber Cardinal fan out there hates the organization for some reason. (It has to do with them not winning a division in 3 seasons, a crime apparently that proves the team just doesn't care about winning, because caring about winning means you win, if you don't win, then of course you don't care.)



So I'll state it right now. Even if the Cardinals make zero changes to their roster this off season, it's a successful off season and they'll still be a playoff contender. Anyone that says different is an idiot.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 07:02 PM (#6104577)
We're paying 20m/year for relief pitchers now? Ick.


2 war is roughly valued at 17 mil on the open market, Diaz was a 3.2 war pitcher last year and that isn't fully accounting for his leverage.
   17. The Duke Posted: November 06, 2022 at 08:56 PM (#6104582)
As I expected, prices are going to boom. Good time to be a free agent
   18. Snowboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6104583)
CBS - Matt Holliday has rejoined St. Louis as their bench coach, the team announced Sunday. Holliday will replace Skip Schumaker, who was named manager of the Miami Marlins last month, on Oli Marmol's staff.

Holliday, 43 in January, last played in 2018 and has no prior coaching or managerial experience at the professional level. He has served as an outfield and hitting coach for Oklahoma State, where his brother Josh is the head coach, since 2019.


Okay Nostradamus (cfb) now tell us next week's lotto numbers lol.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: November 06, 2022 at 10:03 PM (#6104589)
Okay Nostradamus (cfb) now tell us next week's lotto numbers lol.


My post was made after that announcement, but it's been rumored for the past week anyway, with Holliday actively campaigning for the spot.
   20. John Reynard Posted: November 06, 2022 at 10:45 PM (#6104591)
I think Harper is going to put some heat on the Phillies ownership to sign Trea Turner. Whether he's a SS or CF piece remains to be seen. I imagine he could even do both like Chris Taylor did with LAD.

If he plays OF, it probably means Hoskins wasn't resigned and Schwarber will mostly play 1B going forward.
   21. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: November 06, 2022 at 10:53 PM (#6104592)
When and were do Tony Kemp, James Kaprelian, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy, and Ramon Laureano of the A's get traded?
   22. DFA Posted: November 07, 2022 at 01:00 AM (#6104598)
Diaz was a 3.2 war pitcher last year and that isn't fully accounting for his leverage.


Well, what's that bit about past performance and future success? Bullpens are fickle, relievers moreso. Diaz could be a dominant reliever for the next 3 seasons and opt out, and I'm sure Mets fans would be thrilled. But there is a non zero chance that the contract is underwater two years from now. Injuries, ineffectiveness based on control issues, who knows? And while that is true with everyone, it's especially true with closers.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: November 07, 2022 at 01:38 AM (#6104604)
Well, what's that bit about past performance and future success? Bullpens are fickle, relievers moreso. Diaz could be a dominant reliever for the next 3 seasons and opt out, and I'm sure Mets fans would be thrilled. But there is a non zero chance that the contract is underwater two years from now. Injuries, ineffectiveness based on control issues, who knows? And while that is true with everyone, it's especially true with closers


The comment wasn't about about whether the contract was good or not, my comment was that a closer is worth 20 mil when he has a season like Diaz did and getting paid like that is the same risk you pay for any free agent who has proven to be of worthy value.

I'm in the camp that that no closer is worth more than a 3 year contract personally, but neither is a catcher or an under 30 year old pitcher etc.... At the same time, if Edwin Diaz repeats his season in one of those five years, and has an average closer season in two of the other seasons, the Mets effectively break even and that isn't including the marketing factor of Diaz.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: November 07, 2022 at 06:34 PM (#6104722)
<i>As I expected, prices are going to boomK/i>

Based on Diaz? That's hardly a "boom." Chapman got $17 AAV 6 years ago. Jansen got $16 then too, had a rough 2018-20 but a big 2021 was enough to get him $16 again. The Cubs gave Kimbrel $16 5 years ago. Hendricks had just 110 innings as a stud closer under his belt and got 3/$54 in 2021.

So if by "boom" you mean that guys who would have signed for $20 M AAV 5-6 years ago will now be signing for $25 then yeah, it will probably be a "boom." But if there's a "lesson" in the Diaz signing, it's that teams are still willing to play a closer premium -- also maybe that Cohen will not be the most payroll-efficient owner in MLB history.

Now if Trea Turner rocks in at 10/$370 or higher or Judge sails past 40 AAV or gets 12 years then we can talk boom.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: November 08, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6104814)
Cub prospect injury update: Canario fractured his ankle (just had surgery) and dislocated his shoulder (again, awaiting surgery) on the same play in the DR. Brennen Davis had some issues in the AFL, Cubs say it won't delay his spring. Amaya got a Lisfranc fracture in his foot in Sept, Cubs again say this doesn't affect readiness for spring (as he continues to come back from TJS). Ed Howard (mild prospect status essentially gone now) is expected to resume activities soon recovering from hip surgery.
   26. sanny manguillen Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6104877)
In the Korean Series, SSG Landers defeated Kiwoom Heroes 4 games to 2.
   27. Darren Posted: November 09, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6104932)
According to the Japan Times, Masataka Yoshida may be posted this offseason. He's got a really fascinating profile. A small guy at 5'8, 176 lbs, he's not a power hitter like Suzuki was (though he does hit some homers). But his contact and discipline numbers are eye-popping: 72/29, 58/26, and 80/41 BB/K ratios in the past 3 years. He's posted a career .327/.421/.539 slash line. He'll be 29 in 2023. (For comparison, Ichiro! slashed .353/.421/.522 in Japan, with a similarly impressive K rate).
   28. Howie Menckel Posted: November 09, 2022 at 06:37 PM (#6104946)
Jose Canseco weighs in

yes, Jose has listened to the countless people who begged for his insight on what Aaron Judge should do as a free agent, so he supplied it last night on Twitter:

"Run run don’t walk for the nearest exit get out of New York the place is a dump and the fans are awful. Aaron judge you are the God of baseball and the New York fans would have easily crucified you at times get out of there ASAP. ... Even if you were to replicate the season you had this year again the fans would still hate you because you’re making more money New York is known for the most psychologically damaged delete damaged angriest people in the world.

"I predict that the New York Yankees will implode and then explode in the year 2023 most likely might come in last place..... By the way Aaron Judge I can still hit a softball further than you can hit a baseball anytime you want to find out contact me.”
   29. JJ1986 Posted: November 09, 2022 at 07:45 PM (#6104954)
To each his own, but I do not understand why so many smart people are so besotted with the fact that Scott Boras likes to use terrible metaphors.
   30. The Duke Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:22 PM (#6104958)
Couple trades getting done already. Small stuff but perhaps indicative of a lot of action this winter.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:56 PM (#6104967)
A small guy at 5'8, 176 lbs, he's not a power hitter like Suzuki was

But he could be if he wanted to like ... Suzuki?
   32. The Duke Posted: November 09, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6104971)
I stumbled across this Twitter tidbit. Can it be true ?

After the age of 31 the top hitters by bWAR for anyone 6 ft 6 inches or taller are:

Dave Winfield 26.2
Frank howard. 17.8
Giancarlo Stanton. 3.8
Dave Kingman. 2.8
Adam wainwright 2.2


I assume there simply isn't much of a sample set here but it's still pretty humorous.



   33. cardsfanboy Posted: November 09, 2022 at 10:59 PM (#6104975)
Adam wainwright 2.2


LOL that is funny.
   34. The Duke Posted: November 10, 2022 at 05:12 PM (#6105053)
MIL dumps Brad Boxberger to avoid $3 mil salary. He's delivered 2.3 bWAR in his last two years and passed through waivers before release.
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6105087)
Apparently Kershaw is back with the Dodgers on a one year deal... not sure that makes much sense, but it is what it is. At the minimum it should have a vesting player option for a second year.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2022 at 11:35 AM (#6105220)
Delvin Perez elects free agency, still only 23 years old so still has a potential future ahead of him, but an inability to break .700 ops in the minors means he's a long shot to earning a job somewhere.
   37. The Duke Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6105233)
Delvin is the second first rounder the Cardinals have let go in two years. Nick Plummer and now Delvin. We have another high round pick Tre Fletcher, who won't likely make it out of A ball. Those are some really bad outcomes.
   38. The Duke Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6105236)
So there has been a ton of talk about the Arenado $51 million swizzle with Col. There's more clarity being provided now. It was assumed the Cardinals were getting another $16 million windfall from Rockies this year. As it turns out this doesn't reduce payroll. The Rockies paid 15 of his $35 million in 2021. The cardinals paid like 4. The Rockies got Arenado to defer 16 million to 2023. On top of that here's another $4 million per year that they owe the Cardinals to pay down the AAV from 2023- 2027. Which means the cardinals are paying 31, 31,28, 23,15 for the remaining term.

So this year Arenado actually gets $51. The cardinals pay around 31, the Rockies 4 and then the Rockies kick in 16 more to cover the deferral. Also Arenado got an extra opt out (which he just declined ) and one extra year at the end for $15 million

So the cardinals don't have a 16 million windfall this year - which is new news.

It also makes one wonder further why Arenado didn't get paid more for opt out.
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2022 at 02:20 PM (#6105245)
I think when all the math is said and done, the Cardinals have about 15-20 mil room for new payroll, assuming Contreras gets one of those spots, it leaves nothing left in the budget for anyone else. The team is really going to have to bet on a return to form for O'Neil, that Nootbaar wasn't a fluke, that Gorman can improve, Edman and Donovan repeat, Flaherty pitches a full season. None of which are outlandish thoughts, but odds say some of those aren't going to happen. (and that is after accepting more than likely declines from Arenado and Goldschmidt) And of course for Walker to be something. (I'm never a fan of rookies generally speaking I feel they are inconsistent unless they are elites... I don't think Walker is an elite, just very good)

Still I would be happy with
C Contreras
1b Goldschmidt
2b Donovan
SS Edman
3b Arenado
LF Walker
CF Carlson
RF O'Neil
DH Nootbaar

SP Mikolas
SP Flaherty
SP Wainwright
SP Montgomery
SP Hudson
SP Pallante

to start the season. (with DeJong and Yepez on the bench) Everyone is a 100 ops+ or better hitter, most are also average or better fielders. or 100 era+ pitchers(Hudson maybe not he hit his fip for the first time in his career has been pitching above his fip most of his career)
   40. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6105385)
One website pointed out a new rule in the CBA that I didn't know about, apparently if you have a player on the roster for the full season and they win Rookie of the Year, the team gets an extra draft pick. I get this point, it's designed to encourage teams to play their elite prospects all year long instead of trying to Rizzo (or Schwarber...whoever) their playing time for that extra year (there is also rules about MVP finishes in those cases also)

This is a reason why people think that the Cardinals might have Walker on their opening day roster.
   41. JJ1986 Posted: November 14, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6105518)
Is Baseball America not going to publish the minor league free agent list this year?
   42. The Duke Posted: November 14, 2022 at 10:17 PM (#6105557)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-23-minor-league-free-agents-for-all-30-mlb-teams/
   43. The Duke Posted: November 15, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6105634)
Perez rumored to accept QO. Contreras rumored to have declined
   44. cardsfanboy Posted: November 15, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6105665)
Rizzo still a Yankee after agreeing to a two year deal. I wonder if the signings are going to come fast and furious this off season or if it's going to be one of those years where it's dragged out with the big names waiting for someone else to set the market.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: November 15, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6105666)
Tyler Anderson turned his value around, 3 year 39mil with the Angels.
   46. cardsfanboy Posted: November 15, 2022 at 05:00 PM (#6105670)
One thing, I looked at MLB.com ranking of free agents, and they have Trea Turner listed 3rd and Carlos Correa 4th... and I just do not see it. I get it's just one ranking system and we are talking about one spot, but at no point in time during their respective career have I thought that Turner was the better player, and certainly not with them going up for free agency the same year and Correa being younger. Obviously I'll be happy if the Cardinals land either of them (but we pretty much know that the Cardinals will probably finish third in the bidding for both of them and just move on... or maybe not really bid at all, since supposedly the Cardinals only have 15-20 mil available for contracts and that is going to probably go to a catcher(sign or trade), and maybe Kiermeier)
   47. cardsfanboy Posted: November 15, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6105673)
Pederson did accept his QO also.
   48. The Duke Posted: November 16, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6105811)
I Did not know this from mlbtr:

"for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.
   49. Darren Posted: November 16, 2022 at 04:48 PM (#6105817)
Maybe I'll regret this later but I don't agree with the consensus that Scherzer's contract means that top starters are now getting $40 mil+ a year. I don't think Maybe maybe maybe Verlander gets that for 1 year, but I don't think he's get 2-3 for that much and I can't imagine anyone guaranteeing deGrom that much, given his health record. Seems much more likely to me that Verlander gets 3/105 and deGrom gets a base of 30-35 per year and lots of incentives for IP.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 16, 2022 at 04:57 PM (#6105819)
Maybe I'll regret this later but I don't agree with the consensus that Scherzer's contract means that top starters are now getting $40 mil+ a year. I don't think Maybe maybe maybe Verlander gets that for 1 year, but I don't think he's get 2-3 for that much and I can't imagine anyone guaranteeing deGrom that much, given his health record. Seems much more likely to me that Verlander gets 3/105 and deGrom gets a base of 30-35 per year and lots of incentives for IP.

Just on inflation alone, $40M per is worth what $35M was 2-3 years ago. I'd be surprised if salaries go down.
   51. cardsfanboy Posted: November 16, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6105822)
Just on inflation alone, $40M per is worth what $35M was 2-3 years ago. I'd be surprised if salaries go down.


Worth yes, but considering that the money that the teams are getting isn't going to change, I don't think inflation is a pressing issue here. Payroll is more or less going to stay relatively constant over the next year or two, and many teams are probably waiting to see what happens with the regional networks before even considering going much higher.
   52. Darren Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6105882)
There's also a disconnect between Rodon and Verlander/deGrom. He's on their level, younger, and at least as good of a health record. I don't see him getting 5/135 or so and they're getting 3/120 or whatever.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:41 PM (#6105885)
There's also a disconnect between Rodon and Verlander/deGrom. He's on their level, younger, and at least as good of a health record. I don't see him getting 5/135 or so and they're getting 3/120 or whatever.


The one thing about older players is you can run them to the ground, with a younger pitcher you have to take long term approach to their usage, both because you usually invest in more years, and also their agents might say something.
   54. cardsfanboy Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:11 PM (#6105979)
Goldschmidt with the MVP in the Nl, again I doubt anyone is surprised by this outcome. Last award could be a surprise, I'm still going with Judge though...
   55. cardsfanboy Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:57 PM (#6105981)
Judge with the AL award...
   56. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:02 PM (#6105982)
It was a coin flip between Judge and Ohtani, really. Judge set the record, so Judge gets the award. Seems about right.
   57. Howie Menckel Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:09 PM (#6105986)
mandatory viewing: "Say Hey, Willie Mays!" documentary airing on HBO every couple of hours this month, it seems...

for those of us old enough to remember Willie as a Giant and a Met, there's still enough new ground to entertain.
and for those unfortunate enough to have missed his career, it's a treat for you as well.

not sure when they filmed the bulk of it, but Willie himself appears - and he's much sharper than you'd expect, given his well-known health issues.
that was sweet.
   58. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:12 PM (#6105987)
The 1st place votes favored Judge 28-2, so not that much of a coin flip for most. Ohtani probably would have won in many years, but Judge had the best age-30 season in MLB history by OPS+. Of course, the question now is, can he do it, or something close, again?
   59. The Duke Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:23 PM (#6106000)
I don't think it was a coin flip - very much Judge
   60. cardsfanboy Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:27 PM (#6106010)
but Judge had the best age-30 season in MLB history by OPS+.


And that is selective as hell, Ruth did better in both 29 and 31(and 32)it's a weird thing to hang your hat on as an argument. Talk about the war, the hr, the raw ops+,.. but one of the dumbest things I keep hearing is 'best as a 30 year old'.... that is an utterly meaningless distinction. That is akin to Yadier Molina has more hits for one team as a catcher in history. It's a piece of trivia, it's not anything special to give an MVP award over. If he posts 211 ops+ as a 22 year old, it means EXACTLY the same thing in the MVP consideration. In fact pulling that piece of trivia actually hurts Judge in the discussion. It's saying "he did something unique or unusual"... Really? as unusual or unique as Ohtani, give me a break.

Mentioning Judge's performance in a spectrum other than how great of a season it was on it's own, is doing a disservice to the Judge's argument for MVP, not helping it.
   61. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:56 PM (#6106024)
It’s the Most Valuable Player award, not the most unusual player. Pretty sure most here already know Judge led MLB in WAR by a significant margin at both BB-Ref & FanGraphs. Rather petty to object to adding a bit of historical context, but you be you, CFB.
   62. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 12:28 AM (#6106030)
Pretty sure most here already know Judge led MLB in WAR by a significant margin at both BB-Ref & FanGraphs.
I'm not sure I would call 1.0 war significant, considering that I don't agree with the dh penalty assigned to Ohtani, and that I think starting pitchers are underrepresented by war in current usage, but either or, that shouldn't matter about anything I said, which was that it's utterly stupid to point out the 'age 30' season thing as if it has any meaning at all on the value of Judge.

It's selective as heck and doesn't add anything to the conversation, it's a great historic point in his career retrospective, but mentioning it during an MVP discussion seems completely pointless. It stands on it's own, it doesn't need to be pigeonholed into a dumb limitation that is an absolute non-useful piece of information in the current conversation. If the discussion was about his future performance, then it applies, if it's about the pay he should expect, then it applies... in an mvp discussion it's literally completely and utterly useless information, akin to pointing out that he hit the most homeruns in a season wearing whatever uniform number he is wearing.


I don't even know why anyone would bring it up in an mvp discussion. A retrospective of his season, sure why not. Ty Cobb put up a 209 ops+ in his age 30 season, it's very possible that two years from now if there are any change in ball park factors, that simple fact for Judge might drop below Ty Cobb's age 30 season, his current ops+ is not fixed yet... ultimately it doesn't matter though it was a great season regardless of his age and ranking on ops+ leaderboards for 30 year olds.
   63. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 18, 2022 at 12:59 AM (#6106034)
You’ve now compared Judge’s age-30 OPS+ to that of Babe Ruth & Ty Cobb, but still contend that doesn’t say anything meaningful about how good Judge’s season was? Hmm, I’m beginning to wonder if you’re really that qualified to determine who is ‘utterly stupid’ here. OPS+ accounts for park factors & historical context; being the best in MLB history at a prime age is pretty significant. Of course, Judge’s MVP season is demonstrated by just about any metric, so feel free to focus on whichever one you prefer.

And, FWIW, Judge led Ohtani in fWAR 11.4 to 9.5, and 10.6 to 9.6 in bWAR. Pretty significant margins, at least for those who don’t fantasize that their own personal revision would produce a different result.

Again, the point in #58 was that Ohtani had a season good enough for the MVP in many years but Judge won by an overwhelming margin because he had such a historic season.
   64. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:14 AM (#6106035)
but still contend that doesn’t say anything meaningful about how good Judge’s season was?


Really? is that how you read it.... um okay. My point is that it has nothing to do with it's mvp status.

If Judge put up the EXACT SAME SEASON at 22 or 42 it would mean EXACTLY the same thing for awarding the MVP. Adding the extra crap about age is utterly and completely meaningless for the MVP discussion.

And, FWIW, Judge led Ohtani in fWAR 11.4 to 9.5, and 10.6 to 9.6 in bWAR. Pretty significant margins, at least for those who don’t fantasize that their own personal revision would produce a different result.

Again, the point in #58 was that Ohtani had a season good enough for the MVP in many years but Judge won by an overwhelming margin because he had such a historic season.


Umm okay, where on this thread other than me saying something like I think I "might" have voted for Ohtani, did I disagree with him winning? Oh wait. I have consistently and constantly predicted Judge would win, in every thread. (note... nobody considers 1 war at the level we are talking about as significant, it's within the margin of error) I only complained about the idiocy of talking about age in an mvp discussion. And will continue that conversation. It's moronic to talk about it being a historic age 30 season in the context of an MVP discussion, the age 30 season has absolutely nothing to do with the discussion and bringing it up, is just a weird fetish some sports writer discovered.
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:22 AM (#6106037)
From B-b-Reference


How to Use WAR
..............
..............
We present the WAR values with decimal places because this relates the WAR value back to the runs contributed (as one win is about ten runs), but you should not take any full-season difference between two players of less than one to two wins to be definitive (especially when the defensive metrics are included).


And the further you get from the average, the less reliable the numbers are going to be. But again, I have never said I thought Ohtani was more or less valuabe than Judge, have said that on a minute to minute basis I change my mind but they are close enough that it doesn't matter and why it's good for a vote, and have always predicted Judge would win (I think) because I listened to the writers. I just find this whole 30 year thing to be utter bs nonsense that doesn't belong in the discussion about MVP. Save it for contract negotiation or whatever, it's just a great season that happened to happen at his age 30 season it's not like his age 29 makes any top ten list.
   66. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:35 AM (#6106039)
#58 wasn’t about Judge being 30 years old, it was that his season was the best in MLB’s long history at a prime age, by OPS+, a stat that attempts to adjust for historical context. You keep missing that and continue mischaracterizing the point, peppering your posts with insults. Sad.
   67. Howie Menckel Posted: November 18, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6106080)
a letter by Mickey Mantle went up for auction today.

50 years ago, the Yankees asked many ex-players to describe "their most outstanding experience at Yankee Stadium."

The Mick's reply... well, it occurred during a game, and at the stadium - but not in the field of play.

like many, I can't define the word "obscene" - but I know it when I see it.

those who have read the "Ball Four" book will be less startled, for sure.

;)
   68. The Duke Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6106122)
It's an awesome letter but of course today you can't say that and he'd be immediately cancelled
   69. The Duke Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6106123)
Several interesting non-tenders to add to the free agent mix. Gotta think Bellinger will have lots of suitors. Surely, he's fixable
   70. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:45 PM (#6106126)
Dodgers non-tender Bellinger. Not a surprise, I guess, but what a spectacular crash-and-burn.
   71. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6106132)
Gotta think Bellinger will have lots of suitors. Surely, he's fixable.
Perhaps, but he did have shoulder surgery after the 2020 season, and hasn’t been the same since.
   72. The Duke Posted: November 18, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6106136)
Feels like an active offseason - lots of transactions it seems
   73. The Duke Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6106312)
HOF list out. My enthusiasm for Rolen (and to some extent Beltran) are tempered by the possibility that Wagner could make it. I'm guessing Helton makes a big move and perhaps andruw Jones

This is the year for Rolen - if he doesn't make it it could be a solo Curt Schilling induction. This would likely be treated as an insurrection class reunion - too much fun.
   74. TomH Posted: November 21, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6106330)
Beltran - does he get 75% in his first year? I have trouble finding comps for him. Decent JAWS, decent peak, decent career totals, but GREAT post-season stats. Top 5 all time I think in playoff WPA. Top few in championship wins added. Over 1000 OPS in many PA.
   75. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 21, 2022 at 05:51 PM (#6106353)
Beltran - does he get 75% in his first year? I have trouble finding comps for him. Decent JAWS, decent peak, decent career totals, but GREAT post-season stats. Top 5 all time I think in playoff WPA. Top few in championship wins added. Over 1000 OPS in many PA.


On the merits, Beltran is a solid candidate and should go in easily, if not necessarily right away. But he has two things going against him:

1. He was already a classic all-rounder without one eye-popping talent or season. Career BA? A solid but not amazing .279. Career HR? 435 -- eye-catching if you consider the fact that he was also a talented CF, but nothing to write home about in the sillyball era. Hits? 2725, short of the big, round number. His greatest talent was stealing bases, but he played in an era that limited his numbers (career high of 42, total of 312 -- which is way lower than I would have guessed off the top of my head). He has the RoY, a few gold gloves (might have deserved more), and one top-5 finish in MVP voting. In the pre-sabr period, that's a classic profile of a guy who should get in easily but gets left out. Even now it's hard to know.

2. He was allegedly the "mastermind" of the sign-stealing scheme in Houston. The last real news story about him was when he lost his job in Queens as a result of the scandal. While I have always strongly suspected that this scheme had far more ill intent than evil effect, it's the kind of thing that some people take to heart.
   76. The Duke Posted: November 24, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6106717)
Beltran is a HOFr but it might take some time. He's got a nice post-season resume. Went with severe different teams suggesting he is a "winner". He was a classic five tool guy - could do everything well. The cheating scandal hurts but he is a Clemente award winner and I'd like to think the Houston issue was a dumb one-off.
   77. cardsfanboy Posted: November 24, 2022 at 10:25 PM (#6106718)
2. He was allegedly the "mastermind" of the sign-stealing scheme in Houston.


Nobody cares about that, that type of cheating is unimportant.

1. He was already a classic all-rounder without one eye-popping talent or season. Career BA? A solid but not amazing .279. Career HR? 435 -- eye-catching if you consider the fact that he was also a talented CF, but nothing to write home about in the sillyball era. Hits? 2725, short of the big, round number. His greatest talent was stealing bases, but he played in an era that limited his numbers (career high of 42, total of 312 -- which is way lower than I would have guessed off the top of my head). He has the RoY, a few gold gloves (might have deserved more), and one top-5 finish in MVP voting. In the pre-sabr period, that's a classic profile of a guy who should get in easily but gets left out. Even now it's hard to know.


That is the thing, he's another Raines type of candidate, guy good at everything, not great at a single thing. I like to think the voters have gotten better at recognizing that, but I don't feel confident that is the case. On a relatively weak ballot in compared to previous years, it really depends on how much the voters want to keep their high vote totals up. The drop of Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling opens up a lot of ballot spaces for voters, but it's not like the new comers are screaming for election. The 260 votes for Bonds, 257 for Clemens and 231 for Schilling might help give a start for his case, considering there is really no other borderline name being added to this ballot(obviously almost all of those votes are overlapping votes and is at best 66% vote) So the thought process is, people who were willing to vote Bonds/Clemens/Schilling, willing to consider Beltran worthy? Especially when you consider that there is no one else they can add to their ballot.

Hard to say, I think some of those votes are going to end up boosting Andruw and Helton, not sure about Manny though. Arod only got 135 votes last year, I fully expect him to nearly double that total this year, picking up the people who went to bat for Bonds and Clemens as their new argument.


I think Beltran goes in within 3 years on the ballot, I cannot be confident about his first year even though he's a clear hofer.
   78. The Duke Posted: November 26, 2022 at 11:29 AM (#6106832)
First ballot in to Mr Thibs. It's a hoot. Beltran misses out on ballot 1 but some guy named Francisco Rodriguez got a vote
   79. Darren Posted: November 26, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6106862)

1. He was already a classic all-rounder without one eye-popping talent or season.


I generally agree that Beltran might have to wait a while, but we're here to argue, so... I don't agree with this. Talent is a little more subjective but I'd say that his combination of power, speed, and patience was pretty eye popping. How often do you see a CF with 40+ HR and a gold glove. As for eye-popping seasons, first I don't think you need that as much as an excellent peak, which Beltran has. For comparison, Andre Dawson's best season by traditional stats was 49/137/.287, his best by WAR was 7.9. Beltran was 41/116/.275 and 8.2 (both 2006). You can say similar things about easy HOFers Vlad, Winfield, and Stargell. Only Winfield had a big milestone (3,000), but all of these guys were mid-400s in HR and sailed in.

2. He was allegedly the "mastermind" of the sign-stealing scheme in Houston.



Nobody cares about that, that type of cheating is unimportant.


Wait, what? People care a lot about this. I could see this delaying him quite a bit. Also perhaps watching strike 3 to end an NLCS may hold him back, as unfair as that is.
   80. The Duke Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:43 AM (#6107444)
Four votes on the tracker and Beltran gets his first vote. It's SSS but he's not going to be anywhere near in year 1. Wagner inexplicably continues to pick up votes !
   81. The Duke Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:43 AM (#6107445)
Gaylord Perry meets his maker. Adds a top notch SP to the 2022 team
   82. The Duke Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6107447)
The 16 members who will determine the fate of Bonds and Clemens and Schilling

This one has seven Hall of Famers, six execs, and three media members:

Hall of Famers: Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas, and Alan Trammell
Executives: Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Dave St. Peter, and Ken Williams
Media members/historians: Steve Hirdt, LaVelle Neal, and Susan Slusser.

   83. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6107785)
Jon Heyman ballot: Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent, Scott Rolen & Jimmy Rollins (added this year).

IT’S TIME TO PIN THE TRACKER TO THE TOP OF THE NEWSBLOG!
   84. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:57 PM (#6107787)
Not a terrible ballot, if you're punishing roiders. Rollins doesn't belong and Beltran does, but I bet Heyman won't be alone in punishing Beltran for Trashcangate.
   85. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 03, 2022 at 04:03 PM (#6107790)
You can say similar things about easy HOFers Vlad, Winfield, and Stargell.


Vlad and Stargell both had the MVPs, though. Beltran hardly ever got noticed.

You & I might look at Beltran and have our eyes pop. Traditional voters, on the other hand, probably wouldn't.
   86. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 03, 2022 at 06:12 PM (#6107804)
The Tracker (WHICH STILL NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THE NEWSBLOG) is now reporting an anonymous Rolen-only ballot.
   87. The Duke Posted: December 03, 2022 at 07:05 PM (#6107812)
This year will have a lot of 0,1,2,3,4 person ballots. There's no slam dunks. Rolen and Jones and Vizquel are dWAR guys. Helton played in that crazy high altitude place, Beltran banged a trash can, Sheffield, Petitte and ramirez have roid rumors. Wagner? Real pitchers are starters.

I could see a lot of voters checking out on this one. Rolen may be getting a final push from those on the fence - after all someone needs to go in with Schilling.
   88. The Duke Posted: December 04, 2022 at 07:09 PM (#6107896)
One hour to Vets committee results. I'm going with McGriff and possibly Schilling.
   89. Howie Menckel Posted: December 04, 2022 at 07:59 PM (#6107898)
Chipper was ill and couldn't vote today, replaced by Dbacks CEO which seems weird.....
   90. The Duke Posted: December 04, 2022 at 08:14 PM (#6107901)
McGriff goes in as expected - anxious to see how the others fared.

Update: mattingly 8, schilling 7, murphy 6 and everyone else less than 4 so no one else was close except that mattingly's Joe Torre candidacy continues to gain traction.
   91. sanny manguillen Posted: December 04, 2022 at 08:19 PM (#6107903)
Hall website:

Results of the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Ballot (12 votes needed for election): Fred McGriff (16 votes, 100.0%); Don Mattingly (8 votes, 50%); Curt Schilling (7 votes, 43.8%); Dale Murphy (6 votes, 37.5%); Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro each received less than four votes.



Beverage to The Duke.
   92. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: December 05, 2022 at 12:35 PM (#6108027)
Verlander is signing a two-year deal with the Mets, per Anthony DiComo.

EDIT: $86M/2, per Joel Sherman.
   93. The Duke Posted: December 05, 2022 at 08:14 PM (#6108156)
Beltran has one vote out of seven. Yikes
   94. cardsfanboy Posted: December 06, 2022 at 06:25 PM (#6108338)
Cubs signing Bellinger, I was kinda hoping the Cardinals would have signed him, but I think the Cubs give him more opportunity to play regularly which is what he was looking for.
   95. cardsfanboy Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6108499)
Last few hours has been intense. Sad that Quintana ended up with the Mets.

Apparently the Cardinals are willing to go 3 years 17 mil(estimate/believed) asking price for Contreras but not a fourth.... I'm sorry if he's willing to sign for 18mil a year, give him four and consider the last one a deferred year. I would give him a 3 for 65-70 mil without batting an eye.
   96. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6108503)
Judge has re-signed with the Yankees. To be expected, I suppose, but kind of boring.
   97. cardsfanboy Posted: December 07, 2022 at 01:31 PM (#6108530)
I think five years is too long, but considering that I would have been fine with a 4 for 85, 5 for 87 just means deferred money in my mind. I have no illusions that Contreras is going to be good the last two years of the contract. (Contreras 5 years 87.5 mil)

And Mo got to keep his precious prospects.

(Hopefully Cardinal coaches can teach him to be a better receiver)
   98. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 08, 2022 at 12:35 AM (#6108660)
Bogaerts to Padres on 11-year $280M deal.

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