Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Hot stove: Orioles go over $150M in bid for Davis, but there’s still a gap - CBSSports.com

Speaking as a Red Sox fan, I hope the Orioles give him what he wants.

Davis is believed to be seeking a $200 million, eight-year deal, and while that sounds like a significant gap, the sides are staying close in touch.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 09, 2015 at 10:37 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: chris davis, free agents, orioles

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 09, 2015 at 11:19 PM (#5111525)
I'm sorry, but for Chris ####### Davis they want two hundred million dollars?
   2. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: December 10, 2015 at 12:33 AM (#5111548)
Is the plan to play Trumbo in LF then? I mean, Nolan Riemold shouldn't be anybody's left fielder, but ???
   3. zachtoma Posted: December 10, 2015 at 01:05 AM (#5111555)
A soon-to-be 30 year old one year removed from a .196 season and who has, generously, three and a half good seasons to his credit - I don't think I'd go any higher than 4/75.
   4. John Northey Posted: December 10, 2015 at 01:10 AM (#5111557)
Early in the winter I thought he might be a good target for the Jays - create a super-scary lineup for any pitcher who dares to go against them. But $150+ over 7+ for a guy who has 2 years that would be worth that much annual salary? No thanks.
   5. Davo Posted: December 10, 2015 at 01:18 AM (#5111559)
I fully expect Chris Davis to age poorly--he has old player skills--but am obliged to point out a few reasons to be optimistic:

1) He is pretty athletic; at least, he played a couple dozen games in the outfield this year and at third base the year before; and, of course, the famous game against Boston where he pitched for two innings, recording two strikeouts and a win.

2) He does not have a terrible platoon split (he's worse against lefties, of course, but still a dangerous hitter).

3) If we decide to throw out 2014 completely (due to off-the-field issues--he was suspended by the league for taking psychiatric medication prescribed by his physician), then he's coming off three straight very good-to-great years.

4) He doesn't get injured.

It's still very likely to be a bad deal, but, at the very least, there are a few reasons to hope it will be better than, say, the Ryan Howard deal.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2015 at 02:09 AM (#5111563)
It will be Prince-ly. I'll call it 7/$168.

Here's what I've learned this offseason -- there is so much freaking money floating around the game that I don't have a clue what a "fair" salary is anymore and I should keep my mouth shut on $s ... alternatively, all salaries are measured in "Prices" as in "he should be about 3/4 as good as Price so I guess the rest of his career is worth about $160 M."
   7. BrianBrianson Posted: December 10, 2015 at 07:18 AM (#5111578)
Pass.

I have no other advice.
   8. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: December 10, 2015 at 08:13 AM (#5111587)
Wonder how this contract will be used as a mileage marker when they talk with Machado about an extension?

Pass.
   9. Zonk demands an audit of your post Posted: December 10, 2015 at 08:35 AM (#5111591)
So does laughing at a player's demand help or hurt negotiations?
   10. TDF, trained monkey Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:18 AM (#5111605)
If we decide to throw out 2014 completely (due to off-the-field issues--he was suspended by the league for taking psychiatric medication prescribed by his physician), then he's coming off three straight very good-to-great years.
In '12, he was -0.4 WAA. Is that "very good" or "great"?
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:26 AM (#5111609)
Speaking as a Red Sox fan, I hope the Orioles give him what he wants.
I'm a Sox fan and I emphatically don't want the Orioles to sign Davis. If they do, they are better on the field. Off the field, it would be an indication that they might become a big payroll team again.
   12. bbmck Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:40 AM (#5111617)
The 12 players with 2+ seasons qualifying for batting title with 140+ OPS in the last 3 seasons:

Player              OPSRbat  RC  AB/SO Age  PA
Andrew McCutchen     144 34.5 119 4.2556  28 685
Andrew McCutchen     166 48.5 130 4.7652  27 648
Andrew McCutchen     157 43.2 123 5.7723  26 674

Anthony Rizzo        145 38.1 124 5.5810  25 701
Anthony Rizzo        152 36.5 111 4.5172  24 616
Anthony Rizzo        103  3.2  83 4.7717  23 690

Chris Davis          146 37.3 121 2.7548  29 670
Chris Davis           96 
-3.5  59 2.6012  28 525
Chris Davis          168 52.1 143 2.9347  27 673

David Ortiz          141 27.1 104 5.5579  39 614
David Ortiz          140 23.8  93 5.4526  38 602
David Ortiz          159 38.3 111 5.8864  37 600

Edwin Encarnacion    153 36.4 111 5.3878  32 624
Edwin Encarnacion    152 29.8  89 5.8171  31 542
Edwin Encarnacion    145 33.6 104 8.5484  30 621

Joey Votto           174 59.5 148 4.0370  31 695
Joey Votto           125  9.6  38 4.4898  30 272
Joey Votto           156 45.6 132 4.2101  29 726

Jose Bautista        149 37.2 114 5.1226  34 666
Jose Bautista        161 47.8 121 5.7604  33 673
Jose Bautista        132 22.5  82 5.3810  32 528

Josh Donaldson       155 45.2 133 4.6617  29 711
Josh Donaldson       127 20.2  97 4.6769  28 695
Josh Donaldson       145 34.9 113 5.2636  27 668

Miguel Cabrera       170 40.3  99 5.2317  32 511
Miguel Cabrera       150 35.9 115 5.2222  31 685
Miguel Cabrera       190 66.0 155 5.9043  30 652

Mike Trout           176 58.8 139 3.6392  23 682
Mike Trout           168 51.7 137 3.2717  22 705
Mike Trout           179 67.6 155 4.3309  21 716

Paul Goldschmidt     170 52.9 146 3.7550  27 695
Paul Goldschmidt     158 32.6  89 3.6909  26 479
Paul Goldschmidt     160 45.5 129 4.1517  25 710

Robinson Cano        118 20.4  84 5.8318  32 674
Robinson Cano        142 26.8 101 8.7500  31 665
Robinson Cano        147 38.7 118 7.1176  30 681 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2015.
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:51 AM (#5111620)
i know i got laughed off bbtf for suggesting cespedes would get more than 150 million during the season

and cespedes since 2012 is pretty much the equivalent of davis in terms of war. different paths to get there but pretty much the same final output

will be interesting to see what each player gets in the market

   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:55 AM (#5111623)
speaking of cano he was held up as a disaster for 2015 and the guy still had a 3.5 war season

and all because of a bad first half

after the break .331/.387/.540

you know, robby cano type stuff
   15. puck Posted: December 10, 2015 at 09:55 AM (#5111624)
What happened in 2012 to make him non horrible with the bat?

I also just noticed how low his GIDP numbers are.
   16. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: December 10, 2015 at 10:03 AM (#5111630)
He rather famously has a TUE for Adderall (except when he forgets to renew the TUE). Do we know when he started it? A corrected medical condition would be something I would expect to make a player better.
   17. BDC Posted: December 10, 2015 at 10:19 AM (#5111647)
Probably the most similar career to Davis' through age 29:

Player        dWAR   PA  SLG Rbaser OPS+   Age  HR RBI  BB   BA       Pos
Ryan Klesko   
-6.5 3369 .524   -7.8  128 21-29 165 542 392 .282   *73H/9D
Chris Davis   
-6.6 3512 .506   -8.9  122 22-29 203 549 323 .255 *3/D59H71 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2015.

Klesko was good for another, oh, two years :)

Kind of a goofy comparison because Klesko was never nearly as good as Davis; OTOH he was never nearly as bad as Davis either.
   18. bbmck Posted: December 10, 2015 at 10:22 AM (#5111652)
13th-20th best OPS+ with min 300 PA in Age 22 season for active players:

Player             OPSRbat  RC BAbip  PA
Manny Machado       131 27.3 113  .297 713
Wil Myers           131 10.7  55  .362 373
Chris Davis         128 11.1  52  .351 317
Maikel Franco       127 14.3  51  .297 335

Evan Longoria       127 14.9  84  .309 508
Matt Kemp           127 11.4  55  .411 311
Grady Sizemore      123 25.3 105  .334 706
Andrew McCutchen    121 13.7  81  .327 493 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/10/2015.

Harper 195, Trout 168, Puig 159, Stanton 155, Miggy 151, Pujols 151, Sano 146, Panda 144, McCann 143, Wright 140, MUpton 136, A-Rod 136.
   19. Lonnie Smith for president Posted: December 10, 2015 at 10:51 AM (#5111680)
Against whom are the Orioles bidding for Davis? Their offer seems to be inching up with each announcement, but I don't hear anything (specific or otherwise) from competitors.
   20. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 10, 2015 at 11:39 AM (#5111736)
10:07am: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Orioles didn’t raise their most recent offer to Davis — “not one nickel,” as his source put it. Not only that, but Baltimore’s offer to Davis is no longer on the table, according to Olney, though he adds that they’re willing to pick up the past thread of talks. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that a club source denies their offer was increased as well.


Boras might have screwed up.
   21. McCoy Posted: December 10, 2015 at 11:43 AM (#5111744)
Boras might have screwed up.

Words uttered many times. Very rarely turns into Boras did screw up.
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: December 10, 2015 at 11:55 AM (#5111759)
Words uttered many times. Very rarely turns into Boras did screw up.
You are right.

I will also note that even within the leaked tough-guy stance there is the ole "but if you call us we'll take you back!" - which makes the "our offer is no longer on the table" totally toothless. Yeah right your offer is not on the table.

I don't think Boras is fooled by bad bluffs.
   23. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 10, 2015 at 12:19 PM (#5111788)
It's not my money, and if history is any indication the Orioles would not spend the money wisely if they saved it by not spending it on Davis, so I say offer him $200M.
   24. Rally Posted: December 10, 2015 at 12:41 PM (#5111818)
It's not my money, and if history is any indication the Orioles would not spend the money wisely if they saved it by not spending it on Davis, so I say offer him $200M.


Do you think there's another team offering something between 150-200?
   25. DKDC Posted: December 10, 2015 at 01:36 PM (#5111865)
OK, fine, 250, but that’s my final offer.
   26. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2015 at 03:02 PM (#5111982)
i know i got laughed off bbtf for suggesting cespedes would get more than 150 million during the season

But even you had enough sense not to predict 7/$217 for Price. :-)

In a world where relievers get 4/$32, Happ gets 3/$36, Samardzija gets 5/$90, etc. more than $150 M for Cespedes seems like normal behavior. Have we heard any rumors yet?

That said, I'm never sure what folks mean when they say $150 M ... over how many years? Cespedes is turning 30 and standard practice is to sign a guy through age 36. 7/$154 is inherently less surprising than 6/$155 and 5/$155 would be shocking but all are more than $150 M.
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: December 10, 2015 at 03:40 PM (#5112039)

That said, I'm never sure what folks mean when they say $150 M ... over how many years?
Yes. Likewise when people say a x-year deal without including the AAV (or total amount). We need both pieces of information!
   28. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 10, 2015 at 03:50 PM (#5112052)
post 26/27

sorry. don't recall.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
1k5v3L
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogTom Goodwin, former Boston Red Sox coach, says MLB bullied coaches into getting COVID-19 vaccine: ‘There was no choice’
(33 - 2:38am, Jan 22)
Last: PeteF3

NewsblogBaseball Hall of Fame tracker 2022
(1103 - 1:20am, Jan 22)
Last: base ball chick

Hall of Merit2023 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(126 - 11:16pm, Jan 21)
Last: Chris Cobb

NewsblogNBA 2021-2022 Season Thread
(2049 - 10:56pm, Jan 21)
Last: rr: cosmopolitan elite

NewsblogRosenthal: The pressure is mounting — MLB cannot afford to lose games this season
(42 - 10:08pm, Jan 21)
Last: dejarouehg

NewsblogSherman: In defense of the blank Hall of Fame ballot
(21 - 9:39pm, Jan 21)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogRobot umpires at home plate moving up to Triple-A for 2022
(14 - 9:28pm, Jan 21)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogEx-Yankees pitcher Sergio Mitre sentenced to prison for 2020 murder of toddler in Mexico
(2 - 6:53pm, Jan 21)
Last: The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV)

NewsblogHow a heart attack led to Hall of Famer Greg Maddux spurning Yankees for Braves
(17 - 5:46pm, Jan 21)
Last: Gold Star - just Gold Star

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Domestic Cups, Congested Fixture Lists and Winter Breaks
(258 - 5:41pm, Jan 21)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogMLB, union stopped blood testing for HGH due to pandemic
(454 - 4:24pm, Jan 21)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogMLB kills Rays’ split-city plan with Montreal
(23 - 3:45pm, Jan 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogJapan's Giants to establish women's baseball team
(5 - 12:11pm, Jan 21)
Last: will839

NewsblogThe oldest player who ever hit in a game
(8 - 12:47am, Jan 21)
Last: kthejoker

NewsblogHow baseball changed forever in 1972: A timeline of MLB's most memorable events, 50 years later
(20 - 8:39pm, Jan 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

Page rendered in 0.2277 seconds
48 querie(s) executed