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Tuesday, June 11, 2019

How Does Mike Soroka Do It? | FanGraphs Baseball

How does command fit into projecting pitcher performance? It has to fit in there somewhere. The existing metrics, however, just don’t fit.

When you’re forced to look at a pitcher’s sequencing to figure out why he’s effective, it’s a good bet that the obvious culprits (whiffs and strikeouts) don’t explain the production, and that’s definitely the case with Soroka. Watching one of his starts isn’t like seeing Chris Sale, a whirling mass of limbs that produces impossibly-angled sliders and swinging strikes galore. It’s more like watching Kyle Hendricks, sinkers and changeups just eluding the fat part of the bat as groundballs end at-bat after at-bat. Still, though, whoever he resembles, Mike Soroka has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 11, 2019 at 09:33 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: braves, mike soroka

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   1. puck Posted: June 11, 2019 at 10:19 AM (#5850489)
I can't be the only person who saw this article and said either "I thought that guy retired years ago," or "whoa, necro thread."
   2. Bote Man Posted: June 11, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5850519)
Any examination of pitching performance must account for the effect of the catcher as well.
   3. Srul Itza Posted: June 11, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5850624)
He is striking out 7.9 batters per 9 innings, so it is not like we are looking at Mark Fidrych here. He does have a very good GB/FB ratio, but it also looks like he may be somewhat hit lucky.

Bottom line: He looks like a good pitcher, but 80 career IP is not a lot to go on.
   4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 11, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5850650)
He looks babip lucky and HR/9 lucky.

But he was babip lucky and HR/9 lucky over his 370 MiLB IP. It may be skill.
   5. flournoy Posted: June 11, 2019 at 05:03 PM (#5850714)
Have you guys seen him pitch? He gets wiffle ball movement on a lot of his pitches. He looks like he's not really trying to strike guys out, but rather give them something they can't do anything with when they make contact.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: June 11, 2019 at 05:15 PM (#5850719)
There are many ways to a good FIP and low BBs and low HRs is one of them. He's got a 2.70 FIP which, sure, is not as good as the 1.38 ERA but it already removes any "hit luck" he's having. How much HR "luck" do we want to take away. Move him up to Hendricks HR/9 (currently 8th in the NL) and give him the same BABIP as Hendricks and now he's Hendricks plus about 1 BB per 9 so ... a FIP around 3.30 give or take. That's still about a 135 FIP+.

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