How MLB Orgs are quantifying deception in their draft models

“Batters react to what they think the pitch will do.” I’ll reiterate that aforementioned quote many times throughout this piece, but I believe this is where the identification begins. Find pitchers who do things that make a hitter believe one thing, then do something different. There is a lot of value to be had dissecting movement profiles as compared to slot expectation.

This has been chronicled by Austin Marchesani, pitching analyst of the Los Angeles Angels. His research suggests there is no set “dead-zone” fastball profile. Which was previously defined as nearly identical vertical and horizontal breaks. The true “dead-zone” fastballs rely on an ever moving scale based on the pitcher’s slot.

Hitters have seen so many pitches and on the aggregate expect higher slot guys to have more ride on their fastball than run. And vice versa, expect pitchers with lower-slots to have more run than ride on their fastball. This is an over-simplification but hitters rely on averages and what their eye is trained to see.

Research of this type has led to an influx of low-slot, low-launch, high-ride FB ride guys within the professional ranks. This is because those are the outliers.

Outliers like Minnesota Twins righty Joe Ryan. Ryan pitched to a 3.55 ERA, held a 9.2 K/9 and had a top-5 run value on fastballs during his rookie season. All while averaging 91.9 MPH on his heater, over 2 MPH below average. How is that possible?

Ryan pitches from a slot that is below the well major league average but compensates for in extension and an outlier VAA.