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Monday, September 04, 2023

How Much Value Did the Angels Lose By Going All-in?

All told, the go-for-it decision cost them an estimated $27M in prospect capital. They not only missed a golden opportunity to beef up a bad farm, but they absolutely decimated what was left of it. This will leave them bereft of young impact talent for years to come.

To be fair, they’ve promoted a few young players to the major-league level already (and have been one of the most aggressive teams to do so, calling up guys like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, and Nolan Schanuel). But the pipeline is dry.

So how much did the veteran waiver-wire dump salvage those losses?

Assuming any on-field production they would have received from those veterans would have been worthless, since they’re out of contention, the only positive here is the salary savings, which amount to about $5.7M.

There’s another benefit as well: The Angels were slightly over the luxury tax limit, so by shedding these salaries (update: and by putting Max Stassi on the restricted list), they scooted back under it, which means they don’t have to pay any financial penalties on the overage.

That amount would have been tiny, though. The real benefit was that the draft pick they’ll likely receive once Ohtani declines the qualifying offer they’ll issue is that it will come to them after the 2nd round instead of the 4th round. By our math, the delta between the value of those two picks is roughly $2M.

In other words, by dumping veterans, they netted roughly $7.7M in positive value.


RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2023 at 11:58 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels

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   1. The Duke Posted: September 05, 2023 at 08:28 AM (#6140516)
Not as much as Ohtani did by going all-in
   2. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2023 at 09:50 AM (#6140521)
I thought they weren't able to get under the tax limit because Grichuk passed through waivers.
   3. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 05, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6140522)
They've snuck under it by moving Max Stassi to the restricted list. They'd been paying him all year to not play as he deals with an undisclosed "family issue." Now they've stopped paying him and that's enabled them to get under the tax line.
   4. Zach Posted: September 06, 2023 at 07:35 PM (#6140633)
So, a fraction of one year's payroll, or a couple year's worth of underperformance from a bad free agent signing?

Not that much, really. And considering that the alternative was trading away a once in a lifetime player in the middle of a dominant season, they gain the benefits of, you know, not doing that.
   5. Darren Posted: September 07, 2023 at 02:37 PM (#6140661)
Definitely worth it given the situation.
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 07, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6140667)
The total asset-value loss, including the opportunity cost of not trading Ohtani, was $64.3 million according to TFA. So, quite a bit more than just the cost of the prospects they traded (as shown in the excerpt). I doubt that changes your minds though?
   7. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: September 07, 2023 at 05:12 PM (#6140674)
The total asset-value loss, including the opportunity cost of not trading Ohtani, was $64.3 million according to TFA.
Yeah, specifically they say "First, the decision not to trade Ohtani meant that they essentially ate his trade value, which at the deadline, we had at $45M."

My question, since it doesn't seem to be directly backlinked in the article: what would the general methodology be to come up with ~$45 million as Ohtani's trade value? Would that be a best guess at an average return from prospects/others in terms of production, calculated on the basis of (say) how much WAR they might be expected to produce and at what cost?
   8. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 07, 2023 at 05:21 PM (#6140675)
Pretty much. There are people who have done stuff to conclude that a 45 FV prospect is worth $X million, etc. Seems inherently pretty attenuated, but I'm sure those people are smarter than I am.
   9. John Northey Posted: September 07, 2023 at 10:43 PM (#6140713)
Generally that site seems to value it based on expected WAR for the rest of the season x whatever a WAR is worth (around $9 mil) so they probably had Ohtani for 2 months at 5 WAR which seems high but over 5 he has produced 10.0 bWAR or 2 per month so it isn't crazy. Especially if you add on some for the playoffs. Plus that only accounts for 11 innings in August when he got hurt (11 1/3 IP, 0 R over 3 starts). A fully healthy Ohtani is a 2-3 WAR per month player. Scary eh?
   10. sunday silence (again) Posted: September 08, 2023 at 05:12 AM (#6140724)
How in hell is anybody a 3 WAR/mo. player? No one has accomplished that over a full season. Has anyone accomplished that over a period of say 2 months?
   11. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6140780)
   12. McCoy Posted: September 08, 2023 at 04:32 PM (#6140781)
Babe Ruth July and August 1923
   13. jingoist Posted: September 09, 2023 at 06:19 PM (#6140870)
I almost always chuckle when someone posits a question along the lines of “who could have possibly done X”, and invariably either Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds names come up as the answer.
It truly is stunning to look at the Babes pages on BBRef.
How I envied those sports writers of the 20’s and 30’s who got to see that guy play regularly.
   14. Ron J Posted: September 10, 2023 at 02:02 AM (#6140914)
What, you're telling me that .460/.571/.865 (140 PAs) and .442/.586/.849 (117 PAs) added a bit of value? He also played pretty well in the OF.

And #13, Barry Bonds May 2001 .369/.547/1.036 (he was better in September/October) Yeah, bad D, but ...

August 2002 .447/.621/.961

August 2004 .414/.615/1.000
   15. DCA Posted: September 10, 2023 at 03:30 PM (#6140945)
The hitting dominance of Bonds and Ruth (and to a lesser extent Williams) is absurd.

There have been 20 qualified MLB seasons in which a hitter has an OPS >= 1.200; 12 seasons of 1.250+; and 6 seasons of 1.300+

The 1.3 club: Bonds(3), Ruth(3). Two guys, each doing it multiple times.
The 1.25 club: Ruth(6), Bonds(4), Williams(2). Three guys, each doing it multiple times.
The 1.2 club: Ruth(7), Bonds(4), Williams(2), Hornsby(2), Gehrig, McGwire, Foxx, Thomas, Bagwell (the latter two in the shortened 1994 season, they likely would not have done it over a full-length season).

Bonds is over 1.3 OPS for a 5 year period (2000-04) - something that only two guys have ever done for even a single season - and Ruth has a 15(!) year stretch (1919-33) over 1.2 OPS - something that only four guys have ever done even twice in a single season.

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