Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

How San Diego Padres’ A.J. Preller, other MLB GMs decide when to go for it [INSIDER]

Eric Longenhagen and I created a grid with this traditional/progressive spectrum on the X axis in our book “Future Value” and, at first, we thought it would be hard to pin down. After consulting with people in the game, nobody quibbled more than a notch or two (on a eight-point scale) despite the subjective nature of the grades. The people who work in front offices know what information is driving decisions and which staffers have the most pull with management, so it’s not hard to then figure out which clubs are using what sort of information in making those decisions, while it’s almost impossible to prove it objectively by just looking at the transactions log.

I use that on the X axis for this exercise as well, while the Y axis represents risk tolerance. The risk-tolerance values also are subjective and apply across a number of departments. This becomes useful when a club is rebuilding, doesn’t have veterans to trade and isn’t active in free agency. In that case, the types of players a club targets in its small amount of trades or free-agent signings can inform a risk-tolerance grade, while the way it uses its capital in the draft and international markets largely defines its risk tolerance.

Sub required, but I thought Kiley’s matrix was interesting.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:19 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aj preller

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. DCA Posted: September 16, 2020 at 10:58 PM (#5977113)
I think it's interesting that the two original saber posterboys (Beane and Theo) are dead center here. It's Billy Beane's league, the rest of us are just playing in it.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5977129)
I'm intrigued by Cleveland's placement. Low risk tolerance? Seems to me they've made a fair number of "big" moves over the years. They're cheap but I wouldn't say they avoid risk unless by "low tolerance" we mean they aren't willing to risk signing even a young star to a star contract. Then at the top end of "progressive analytics"? The team that just traded one of the better pitchers in baseball (Clevinger) for very little because he was a bad citizen? The team that somehow hasn't identified a decent OF in a decade? (I assume that's an exaggeration but not by much.)

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogNBA Post-Bubble offseason thread
(209 - 5:32pm, Oct 30)
Last: ramifications of an exciting 57i66135

NewsblogAre analytics to blame for Rays’ Kevin Cash pulling Blake Snell too early from Game 6 of 2020 World Series?
(114 - 5:30pm, Oct 30)
Last: Jesse Barfield's Right Arm

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-30-2020
(7 - 5:26pm, Oct 30)
Last: Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

NewsblogPotential Orioles bidders line up in hopes the Angelos family decides to sell
(2 - 5:18pm, Oct 30)
Last: winnipegwhip

NewsblogMajor League Baseball cancels owners meetings, winter meetings due to COVID-19
(1 - 5:16pm, Oct 30)
Last: winnipegwhip

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(10242 - 5:15pm, Oct 30)
Last: ramifications of an exciting 57i66135

NewsblogSteve Cohen’s Mets purchase approved by MLB and de Blasio
(5 - 4:48pm, Oct 30)
Last: Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66)

NewsblogWhy Tony La Russa is a sincerely curious choice for Chicago White Sox manager
(6 - 4:01pm, Oct 30)
Last: Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus

NewsblogSpokesperson: Mayor Bill de Blasio still 'evaluating' Mets sale to Steve Cohen
(37 - 3:27pm, Oct 30)
Last: Adam Starblind

NewsblogTony La Russa has some expletives for Harold Baines' Hall of Fame detractors
(12 - 3:16pm, Oct 30)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogThese 6 teams now need a title most
(18 - 3:15pm, Oct 30)
Last: Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa

NewsblogDetroit Tigers hire A.J. Hinch as new manager
(12 - 3:15pm, Oct 30)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogWhite Sox name Tony La Russa new manager
(74 - 2:03pm, Oct 30)
Last: Crispix Attacksel Rios

NewsblogAstros place closer Roberto Osuna on outright waivers
(5 - 1:37pm, Oct 30)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogYASIEL PUIG SUED FOR ALLEGED SEXUAL BATTERY
(9 - 10:46am, Oct 30)
Last: asinwreck

Page rendered in 0.2575 seconds
48 querie(s) executed