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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

How San Diego Padres’ A.J. Preller, other MLB GMs decide when to go for it [INSIDER]

Eric Longenhagen and I created a grid with this traditional/progressive spectrum on the X axis in our book “Future Value” and, at first, we thought it would be hard to pin down. After consulting with people in the game, nobody quibbled more than a notch or two (on a eight-point scale) despite the subjective nature of the grades. The people who work in front offices know what information is driving decisions and which staffers have the most pull with management, so it’s not hard to then figure out which clubs are using what sort of information in making those decisions, while it’s almost impossible to prove it objectively by just looking at the transactions log.

I use that on the X axis for this exercise as well, while the Y axis represents risk tolerance. The risk-tolerance values also are subjective and apply across a number of departments. This becomes useful when a club is rebuilding, doesn’t have veterans to trade and isn’t active in free agency. In that case, the types of players a club targets in its small amount of trades or free-agent signings can inform a risk-tolerance grade, while the way it uses its capital in the draft and international markets largely defines its risk tolerance.

Sub required, but I thought Kiley’s matrix was interesting.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:19 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aj preller

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   1. DCA Posted: September 16, 2020 at 10:58 PM (#5977113)
I think it's interesting that the two original saber posterboys (Beane and Theo) are dead center here. It's Billy Beane's league, the rest of us are just playing in it.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: September 17, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5977129)
I'm intrigued by Cleveland's placement. Low risk tolerance? Seems to me they've made a fair number of "big" moves over the years. They're cheap but I wouldn't say they avoid risk unless by "low tolerance" we mean they aren't willing to risk signing even a young star to a star contract. Then at the top end of "progressive analytics"? The team that just traded one of the better pitchers in baseball (Clevinger) for very little because he was a bad citizen? The team that somehow hasn't identified a decent OF in a decade? (I assume that's an exaggeration but not by much.)

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