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Sunday, May 03, 2020

How Shortened Seasons Affect Future Projections

It’s interesting, surprising, and a bit discouraging.  Go read the article and give Fangraphs some traffic.  Click on an ad while you’re there.

Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: May 03, 2020 at 03:23 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, statistics, strike, zips

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 03, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5947161)
Those are curious results. The expected statistical effect wouldn't be very large anyway but still the results should be worse. If it was just the next season then I might suspect that fewer games means fewer injured players so fewer lingering effects that ZiPS wouldn't know about. But I wouldn't expect that effect to last for 2 more years.

I wasn't clear how Dan did the comparison. Only players that survived until the next season or everybody? Was there more/less drop out over this period and, if there was, are there reasons to expect that after shortened seasons?

Just casting about. One or more sources of variation was lower than normal in these years (not necessarily the same source every year but it would be weird if it wasn't) because the sampling variation has to be higher (on average but 6 years of conveniently-timed weirdness sets off my alarm bells).

There's always House's "the simplest explanation is always that somebody screwed up" so maybe Dan screwed something up. :-)
   2. John Northey Posted: May 05, 2020 at 10:47 PM (#5948231)
I suspect a big part of the issue is covered due to it affecting all players equally (more or less). Thus projections over a full season vs each other would adjust automatically to cover it. Now, if just the AL was out for 2020 for example (never happen but this is a what if) then players who shift leagues would see drastic spreads vs projections I'd expect.
   3. drdr Posted: May 07, 2020 at 11:09 AM (#5948636)
I would say injuries. Shortened season means longer time for players to heal/recover/rest. It should mean that in following years players have less fatigue/day-to-day injuries. Those are the ones that really throw projection systems off.

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