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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, August 30, 2021How the Giants took a familiar roster and unearthed the best team in baseball
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: August 30, 2021 at 04:32 PM | 15 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: August 30, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6037224)It's a pitching year in the NL. Per WAApos, the top 3 teams are (surprisingly) StL, Wash and SD who all look like they'll miss the playoffs. The Dodgers and Giants have done well but Milw and Atl are pretty average and Cinci below-average. But Cinci makes up for it with the most WAApit, followed by the other 4 (very) likely playoff teams. WAA still gives a small edge to the Padres over the Reds so maybe the Padres will give us one "slug your way to the playoffs" representative.
In the AL, it's a bit more typical. Hou and Tampa are mainly slugging their way in, the White Sox are balanced, the Yanks are pitching well while Bos and Oak are pretty balanced. The Blue Jays are #2 in WAA, #3 in both WAApit and WAApos, but pretty hopelessly out of the race at this point. Let's hope they can keep it together next year and maybe we'll see a playoffs with neither the Yanks nor Red Sox involved.
EDIT: And the AL still has a 20-game edge over the NL despite a run differential of just +1. That's still entirely the ALE +22 vs the NLE.
You should never, ever, ever tank a season particularly in the new expanded playoff age. Proven definitively, yet again.
I do not normally question park factors but the Reds have such an extreme park factor that it skews their pitching versus hitting WARs. Great American Ballpark has a 116 multi-year park factor right now, which incorporates the extreme one-year factor of 119 from last season. I believe that interleague games are thrown out so last year is based on just 40 intradivision games.
Granted the Reds play in a hitter's park and these factors are not just made up but a 116 doesn't pass the smell test. Colorado's multi-year factor is 111. They were last above 116 in 2018, back when GABP was a 102. Somehow the Reds went from a mild to extreme hitters park in just two years.
Wade Miley has had a great year - 2.74 ERA/2.86 RA - but to have 6.3 WAR in just 144 innings doesn't sounds right to me.
When were the other times?
And the really, really dumb people like you wanted Zaidi fired in his second season running things.
Oh oh, I feel a rant about liberal PC trolls coming on, let's see if he can sustain it in three different threads...
Looks like the PF took a big jump in 2019 and has kept going up. Hard to think what that could be. It depends of course not just on the Reds ballpark but how other parks have changed, am I blanking on any new parks coming on line? The Braves saw a big jump in 2019 too. Coors began a steady drop in 2019 too -- maybe they turned up the humidity or maybe that's just a change due to Cinci going up. I suppose it's possible that the effort to better optimize launch angle has more effect in some parks than others -- maybe it doesn't matter much in Coors or Wrigley (small drop in 2019). I don't know how much PF bounces around year to year but it sure looks like something happened in 2019 that increased the variance in NL PFs.
I would not have bet on 34-year-old BC having career highs in OPS+/HR while still playing good defense, but here we are.
The Giants have so many 30+ guys having good years. I've been wondering if the relatively short 2020 season allowed for old bodies to heal up more than usual, meaning we might see a little bump of good old-guy seasons.
(fwiw, the A's are somehow the oldest team in the AL, both batters and pitchers. Giants oldest NL batters by far, third-oldest pitchers)
I’m going to bet the scherzer-Turner deal helps the Dodgers more than the Bryant deal helps the giants, but it’s going to be super close
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