Because it's not unpredictable. The same teams make the LCS each year. Variations happen as teams fade (cubs) or teams come into their window (padres) so of course things do change over time. 13 of the last 24 LCS spots are three teams.

What is random is who wins from there.

Further, as the top 5 (maybe top 8-10) teams start spending WAY more than the average, that repetitiveness will continue. There is no way we won't see the Mets more in the future, for instance.

It's always been this way even before multi round playoffs. There are always a few teams that keep showing up for 3-5 years. Oakland and the big red machine as good examples of the Giants/cardinals from the last decade that dominated World Series LCS appearances.

The Astros swept both the Mariners and Yankees but only one of those seven games was decided by more than two runs.

Just for grins, here's what the World Series matchups since 1976 would've looked like if they'd been held under pre-division era standards, involving the teams with the best overall league records. The actual matchups are in brackets, with the winning team listed first.

1976: Reds vs Yankees [no change]
1977: Royals vs Phillies [Yankees vs Dodgers]
1978: Yankees vs Dodgers [no change]
1979: Pirates vs Orioles [no change]
1980: Astros vs Yankees [Phillies vs Royals]
1981: Reds vs A's [Dodgers vs Yankees]
1982: Cardinals vs Brewers [no change]
1983: White Sox vs Dodgers [Orioles vs Phillies]
1984: Tigers vs Cubs [Tigers vs Padres]
1985: Blue Jays vs Cardinals [Royals vs Cardinals]
1986: Mets vs Red Sox [no change]
1987: Tigers vs Cardinals [Twins vs Cardinals]
1988: Mets vs A's [Dodgers vs A's]
1989: A's vs Cubs [A's vs Giants]
1990: Pirates vs A's [Reds vs A's]
1991: Twins vs Pirates [Twins vs Braves]
1992: Blue Jays or A's vs Braves [Blue Jays vs Braves]
1993: Blue Jays vs Braves [Blue Jays vs Phillies]
1994: Yankees vs Expos [no World Series that year]
1995: Braves vs Indians [no change]
1996: Indians vs Braves [Yankees vs Braves]
1997: Braves vs Orioles [Marlins vs Indians]
1998: Yankees vs Braves [Yankees vs Padres]
1999: Yankees vs Braves [no change]
2000: White Sox vs Giants [Yankees vs Mets]
2001: Braves vs Mariners [Diamondbacks vs Yankees]
2002: Yankees or A's vs Braves [Angels vs Giants]
2003: Braves vs Yankees [Marlins vs Yankees]
2004: Yankees vs Cardinals [Red Sox vs Cardinals]
2005: White Sox vs Cardinals [White Sox vs Astros]
2006: Mets vs Yankees [Cardinals vs Tigers]
2007: Red Sox or Indians vs Diamondbacks [Red Sox vs Rockies]
2008: Cubs vs Angels [Phillies vs Rays]
2009: Yankees vs Dodgers [Yankees vs Phillies]
2010: Phillies vs Rays [Giants vs Rangers]
2011: Phillies vs Yankees [Cardinals vs Rangers]
2012: Nats vs Yankees [Giants vs Tigers]
2013: Red Sox vs Cardinals [no change]
2014: Nats vs Angels [Giants vs Royals]
2015: Royals vs Cardinals [Royals vs Mets]
2016: Cubs vs Rangers [Cubs vs Indians]
2017: Indians vs Dodgers [Astros vs Dodgers]
2018: Red Sox vs Brewers [Red Sox vs Dodgers]
2019: Dodgers vs Astros [Nats vs Astros]
2020: Dodgers vs Rays [no change]
2021: Giants vs Rays [Braves vs Astros]
2022: Astros vs Dodgers [Astros vs Phillies]

Some of those alternate matchups (e.g. 1984, 1988, 1997, 2012) would've been big improvements over what we got, but mostly it would've been six of one and half a dozen of the other, as a lot of those Cinderella team acquitted themselves quite nicely, even when they lost.

How do the Astros beat the odds? I once saw someone flip heads 22 times in a row, including one that hit a plate and spun off the table. Random chance is how (and yes, I know baseball is more than random chance, but it seems the Astros have got more than their fair share).

How do the Astros beat the odds? I once saw someone flip heads 22 times in a row, including one that hit a plate and spun off the table. Random chance is how (and yes, I know baseball is more than random chance, but it seems the Astros have got more than their fair share).

It's even simpler than that. Someone has to win each year, so someone is going to beat the odds. Any given team has a small chance of winning 2 WS in 5 years, but collectively all thirty teams have a pretty good chance. If we weren't talking about the Astros "beating the odds" we'd be talking about some other team. A very large % of five year intervals has one team with two WS wins.

It's 2 WS titles in 6 years actually.

Assuming total randomness:

Chance none of the 2018-22 winners will repeat next year: 25/30 = 83%
Chance the Astros won't repeat before 2028: 84.4% (so 1/6 chance they do)
Chance that none of the last 5 winners will repeat before their 6-year window closes: 58.6%
(25/30 * 26/30 ... i.e. the 2018 winner has only one shot to pull it off)

Snapper's correct that it's just the birthday problem except where (give or take) we run it just on the day of the month. Even for an individual team, by random chance, the probability of winning at least one WS in 10 years is 29%. But by that calculation as well, the chance of winning none over 20 years is about 50%. Even the 40+ year drought of the Pirates is about a 25% chance. (Well, it would be if there'd been 30 teams the whole time.)

In the list above:

10 times both top teams made it (counting the one where the Jays and A's tied). 6 in the pre-WC era (18 playoffs) and 4 in 26 since. I counted another 20 times at last one made it, 8 of those in the pre-WC era.

Pre-WC: top team in a league made the WS 20 times in 36 chances (55%). That's very low, you'd expect 75% by random chance.
post-WC: top team made it 20 times in 52 chances ... assuming they had to win 2 rounds, the chances neither would make it is 9/16 ... that's about the same, 57% expected vs 62% observed.

Somebody double-check my math.

How do the Astros beat the odds? I once saw someone flip heads 22 times in a row, including one that hit a plate and spun off the table. Random chance is how (and yes, I know baseball is more than random chance, but it seems the Astros have got more than their fair share).

Well how I am supposed to construct a narrative out of that?

If roulette is roulette, how did that one guy I saw win twice in six tries?

Since 2017, the Astros have a regular season winning percentage of .622, a postseason winning percentage of .616, and have won .765 of their postseason series. Not that crazy.

Since 2017, the Astros have a regular season winning percentage of .622, a postseason winning percentage of .616, and have won .765 of their postseason series. Not that crazy.

"Crazy" maybe not but ... if you win 62% against an average team, you should not win 62% against good teams. The series %age is spot on for that game %age though.

This is simple really as they are the anti-A's and their sh*t DOES work in the playoffs...sometimes.

The thing is the Astros over the last 6 years aren't just "making up the numbers" as far as playoff teams are concerned, by stats, they are usually one of the the best teams in the playoffs which probably sees them as 55%-45% favourites against the other good teams in each series. Eventually they'll win all the way through to the title.
I have no explanation for the Dodgers other then to say that they are due.

If roulette is roulette, how did that one guy I saw win twice in six tries?

If it was Russian roulette, then I'll be impressed.

The Astros swept both the Mariners and Yankees but only one of those seven games was decided by more than two runs.

All those close games, in my opinion, show just how much luck is involved. What if Alvarez doesn't homer in game one against the Mariners? Who knows?
As much as I've enjoyed the Astros run of success, I feel very strongly that there's a huge amount of "luck", for lack of a better word, involved. And I don't see a problem with that.
Also, I don't feel any need to explain their success; I think we just have to enjoy the playoffs for what they are- a series of high stakes, high pressure games that can provide tremendous
entertainment value (and cardiac distress).

The Dodgers have won something like 55% of their postseason games in the same period of time, and the LA media cries that their #### doesn't work in the playoffs.

The Astros have put 6 good teams on the field and into the playoffs, and won a little more of their share of postseason series.

And the Astros had a little more than luck going for them in 2017, so that thumb on the scale might just be the difference.

of course there is a ton of luck involved in playoffs.

- starting off with which team's players are/are not hurt at the time. like astros lost in 04 only because of only 2 good SP because andy pettitte was out (no there couldn't be any other reason like needing better hitters or relievers)

- and which players have a hot or cold streak goin on - those things are absolutely real.

-also stuff like how the HP ump calls balls/strikes and i don't mean just eric gregg.

- also stuff like some fielder, shtty or not (jeter) makes a game changing incredible play (chaz's Catch - or 18 yrs earlier edmonds incredible catch of an almost certain game winning double by brad ausmus - yes i know, NLCS not WS)

i would say that by the time you get rid of really lousy teams, you don't have really great teams playing against supposed to be easy to beat bottom teams - but we all know that teams that end up with 50-60 wins STILL have wins against really great teams.

and of course there's upsets - the 90s/00s As losing all the time, the 07 rockies winning th NL pennant, the 04 yankees losing the ALCS after being up 3-0. etc.

i would also say that if these series were played without days off at some neutral stadium that luck would be a LOT less of a thing. not that this is something i want. i always thought it is seriously weird that the super bowl site got zero to do with whoever is playing and that most fans can't go. but - shrug - im not a football fan so i don't care a tall

"Crazy" maybe not but ... if you win 62% against an average team, you should not win 62% against good teams. The series %age is spot on for that game %age though.

In the regular season the 2022 Astros won 65% of their games. Against only 2022 playoff teams during the regular season (55 games) they were one win shy of winning 65% of their games.

You could say it was luck, but their winning the World Series given their regular season record against playoff teams - not just overall, but winning nearly all of the season series against each playoff team - seemed like the most likely outcome.