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Sunday, January 08, 2006
If Sox ‘change,’ Theo’s game: Former GM hints at return
Fun with Theo.
The Original Gary
Posted: January 08, 2006 at 01:26 PM | 127 comment(s)
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Most of this seems quite positive. The Sox seem prepared to cobble the available options into a shortstop, but they will not be going with Stern in CF. And Petunia will get his shot in spring - that should be exciting to follow. an actual spring training position contest!
The quote on Youkilis is not so heartening for me. I'd much rather see a straight-out statement that he's the starter. "Chances to play" sounds like a platoon or something.
Papelbon's flexibility is good for the team, especially since they seem to be having trouble getting the return they want on Clement/Arroyo/Wells. I think he'd be great in the bullpen, though he'd be a bit scary in mid-inning jams with those flyball/homer tendencies. Hansen to start in AAA gives another bullpen slot either to Papelbon or Van Buren, depending on whether the starter trades go down. Or a random lefty they pick up before spring, I guess.
It definitely seems like his/Varitek's unwillingness to throw breaking pitches hurt.
I think it's in the long term best interest of the team to give Papes another year as a reliever and spot starter, getting him 100-120 innings in increasingly high-leverage situations, maybe work him into the rotation in August depending on roster needs. A 2007 rotation headed by Beckett, Papelbon and Lester will be very good and cheap, and give us a lot of financial flexibility to go after hitters in free agency or trades.
Looking at the body types and pitching motions of Santana, Prior, and Sheets in 2003, which one would you have picked as most likely to be healthy and be the best pitcher in their league the next two seasons? Don't you have to credit some of that to the Twins' handling of Santana?
They definitely deserve some credit, but there's definitely an element of luck. I don't know how we divide the credit up, but I can't blame the Cubs for Prior's ability to hurt places other than his arm.
I'd love Langerhans, I think. ZIPS says he'll hit .266 .352 .435, and his defensive rep is pretty good.
You'd think that Texas would be a natural trading partner for us for a CF. Here's what they have for OF currently (with ZIPS for 06):
Wilkerson lf .280 .387 .504
Dellucci rf .247 .357 .476
Hyzdu rf .242 .355 .457
Mench lf .264 .327 .474
Sarge Lite (heh) rf .260 .327 .432
Nix cf .254 .303 .454
Hey, let's trade for that Hyzdu guy! They've also apparently got a bunch of corner guys who may need to be pushed to the OF (Botts/Teixeria/etc). They need pitching, we need OF, git 'er done!
I said this elsewhere, but I'm starting to think that they're gonna stick Nixon out there and pray for 1200 runs.
And the next time I see "git 'er done", I'm going to kill someone with my mind.
You can blame the bad karma of Dusty Baker the Arm Assassin. Even if he didn't do it with his usage patterns, surely his aura caused it to happen.
What do you think that the Sox have for bullpen arms that the Braves would want? Atlanta seeks a closer. That is also an area where the Sox have some question marks. Foulke's health has questions.
As a related question to the CF question, of the top 5 prospects which ones are we least willing to give up? From least to most I'd go:
1. Marte
2. Papelbon
3. Pedroia
4. Lester
5. Hansen
I know healthy Lesters and Hansens are more valuable than Pedroia, but I definitely fear injuries for them more. They could probably also get more in a trade (though Hansen can't be traded till the summer). If the value is there on the other side, who do the Red Sox have to be willing to part with?
I don't think either are in the closer space.
Then the Red Sox should go get him, because he can be had for cheap, and you got the same production out of him last year as you did for Foulke.
Moreover, the Braves didn't trade Langerhans for Kolb. They traded a pitcher with control problems that was in Leo's doghouse, who was coming off a year a successful year as a closer. As big a mistake as Kolb may have been, you can't even dress those others up as a closer.
You might want to save that one for the roto league.
The Braves need someone who can actually close games (even if that's sort of overrated, right?). I'm sure they'd prefer someone like Timlin. I'd venture that if the Braves were truly desperate, they'd look into a Timlin for Langerhans swap. And they might take a shot at working out a trade for Foulke if the money/players were right. But Mota? Come on. The Braves aren't filming a sequel called "Meet the Mota Fockers", you know.
I just realized that this made it sound like Kolb and Mota are somehow similar pitchers, which they're not. I only meant that it is pretty tough to figure out the Braves' criteria for liking a player. They seem to trade for guys who don't seem that great, who end up being very good for the Braves. They also seem to deal some prospects who look good, but then tank once the Braves have dealt them.
I meant to say that, perhaps Mota would fit whatever criteria they have. He's been a pretty good pitcher for a few years.
Is Epstein trying to pressure the Red Sox by talking about coming back again? Frankly, he is starting to sound a little pathetic. I really think he is overrated. I think the current two guys could do just as good a job.
Red Sox just signed Timlin to a new deal. Can't trade him.
And they might take a shot at working out a trade for Foulke if the money/players were right. But Mota? Come on.
Mota was much better than Foulke last year, and he's cheaper and a shorter commitment. Both have health issues. As a non-doctor, without access to their medical records, I'd say that Mota looks like a better value.
Yay, Darren knows sample sizes. And shoe sizes.
Foulke, age 33 next year, has had 700+ IP of 3.23 ERA (144 ERA+); his last 5 seasons as a closer (not counting last year) were spectacular. Last year he had health problems, but assuming he's fully recovered in 06, he's a good bet to be much closer to 2000-2004 level than 2005 season.
Mota, age 32 next year, has had 464 innings of 3.61 ERA (116 ERA+); his good seasons were 2 1/2 years in LA as Gagne's setup guy. He's been pretty bad since going to FLA, and last year suffered various arm troubles. Even fully healthy, he's not anywhere in the same league as Foulke.
I wouldn't trade Langerhans for Mota; I would consider trading Langerhans (and/or others?) for Foulke if the money/players involved were right. I'd much rather take a gamble on Foulke's pre-2005 track record than on Mota's two years in LA. Unless you want to mess with Mike Piazza's head.
1)pedroia
2)marte
3)hansen
4)lester
5)paps
obviously, paps is the guy i would trade. his strikeout numbers were good, but not mind-blowing. he's only pitched a combined 114 innings between the sea dogs and paw sox (hardly a huge sample)--whereas lester pitched 148 innings on the sea dogs alone last year. he has yet to display anything besides a fastball. on top of that, he's now 25--almost the same age as josh beckett. i think he's overrated by most everyone. i'd say his upside is a number three starter, but most likely he'll end up as a decent reliever. i would rather have traded him than sanchez.
I don't try to read JS too much. Its too difficult to get into his head. However, in the past, if JS needed a closer, he has tended to do one of two things:
(1) Trade for an established closer. This is rare, e.g. Kolb..
(2) Trade for someone that he thinks can be a closer. This is usually the modus operendi. This has been largely successful, but with mixed results e.g. Berenguer, Pena, Karsay , Farnsworth
I think the long range planning has always been to have a closer in waiting that emerges through the system through some setup work (Wohlers, McMichael, Rocker) which has proved the best results because you could also count Lightenberg in this model. Clontz was the real bomb.
I actually think that they thought Capellan may be the next in line, but when he had a few workability problems they cashed out for Kolb. Now the cupboard is bare, but I think they would try McBride or even Devine before making a bad deal.
Now based on all of that, I thought the deal Bernal posited was plausible. David Riske is the type of pitcher that JS wanted. It also seems that JS likes the Cleveland system for developing and handling pitchers (e.g. Karsay, Reed, and Embree). If CLE offered Riske for Langerhans I could see that as the type of pitcher that JS would like.
Otherwise, I expect they will look for a hard throwing setup guy with good control or fixable control, who has had a few years of proven success. That has been a more expensive commodity this year so I don't know if they will find that just by trading away a surplus OFer. I don't think the core of the young pitchers will be available, unless they are packaged with one of Langerhans/Johnson and also return a ML corner OFer.
Moreover, if the Sox had an RP that the Braves had interest in, I would expect it would have been part of the Renteria deal.
Mota, age 32 next year, has had 464 innings of 3.61 ERA (116 ERA+)
I agree that Foulke has had a better career. But I don't think including stats from before about 2002 makes much sense. A weighted average would be much more revealing. Same for Mota. ZIPs does this presumably, and it looks like Foulke comes out a hair better than Mota, which doesn't come close to making up the difference in their contracts. It would, of course, depend heavily on their health too, which is why I cannot agree that Foulke is a much better target than Mota.
I wouldn't trade Langerhans for Mota;
Nor would I. But I (or more importantly Schurholz) might consider him to be part of a deal for Langerhans.
I would consider trading Langerhans (and/or others?) for Foulke if the money/players involved were right.
So you'd do Langerhans+ for Foulke, possibly? I doubt I'd do that as the Braves unless the Red Sox paid all of Foulke's salary.
I completely agree. Why then are you so comfortable dismissing others thought on what might interest him?
Because its easier to figure out what somebody will not do then what they will do. Because I am somewhat familiar with what the Braves have sought to acquire
But I'm becoming even more interested in behavior. I did see someone mention something that seemed a little fanboyish. I inquired further, and stated what I knew. I saw a response that did not address that at all. I mentioned that. I also responded to your question. And this gets characterized as "dismissive." That is absolutley hilarious.
Is there any information on this, though. Based on what we know, Foulke would scare the bejesus out of me. I don't know if he has his whole package. I also don't trust his personal prognosis of himself. Despite Foulke's impressive record, he's still a guy that blows saves. Sometimes he looks like a dominant reliever with 3 pitches that he can throw for strikes. Other times, he looks very hittable. I'm not sure if those differences aren't attributable to pain, or at least, I'd be concerned that was the case.
If he is A game Foulke, I think JS or any GM would tread a great defender/avg. hitter like Langerhans to get him, provided they could swing the finances. If he is slightly damaged Foulke, that equates to last year's Kolb.
Of course it's easier. JS will only acquire 0-2 closer/relievers. Guessing that any given player will not be one of them is quite easy. It doesn't mean that suggesting that player as a possibility is foolish.
</i>But I'm becoming even more interested in behavior. I did see someone mention something that seemed a little fanboyish. I inquired further, and stated what I knew. I saw a response that did not address that at all. I mentioned that. I also responded to your question. And this gets characterized as "dismissive." That is absolutley hilarious.<i>
I thought your roto comment was dismissive.
LOL. Then what did you consider the Dan Kolb comment. Insightful, because it was pro-Red Sox. I know since you got that Professor Hat, you want to make this a rah-rah Red Sox place, but until the fiat comes down that this is just going to be 28 different Fan Forum's I'm still going to talk about baseball. If you want the discussion to be about baseball, you might want to make arguments about baseball instead of talking about behavior every time a non-Red Sox fan comes into the forum.
I doubt most Sox fans want all-fantasy, all-the-time, either, but you appear to be cultivating a few.
And I must admit, I got trolled into your little rhetoric. I thought you were asking a serious question. Now, its clear you just wanted someone to take up some time, and you were going to post that pointless rhetorical question no matter what was answered. Well, I won't make that mistake again. Shame on me for going against my instinct.
But I hope this thread doesn't disappear in another reorganization.
Why Mazzone undid everything Maddux told Kolb is STILL a mystery to me. He turned Kolb from an unusual, but effective pitcher (strikeout ratio be damned; until he tired at the end of 2004, he was giving up basically singles and a few walks) throwing nothing but sinkers, back into the slightly-harder throwing, but straight-as-an-arrow fastball pitcher he was prior.
(while you wouldn't want all your pitchers to be like Kolb, it appears to be how to get maximum effectiveness out of KOLB)
My jaw dropped when I first saw Kolb throw the opening week, and WHAT he was throwing. I guess we'll see this season if, reunited with Maddux, Kolb returns to usefulness .
/back on topic
I think Papelbon's age, relative inexperience are positives.
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/01/09/sox_still_keep_eye_on_tejada/?page=2
Lots of Manny stuff there too
I'm really glad that Payton's on the radar, despite the stuff last year. Wells for Payton is probably the best the Sox can do if Crisp/Reed are going to cost more than Clement/Arroyo. I'd guess the Sox could get a B prospect headed their way in a Wells for Payton deal too, considering Payton was traded for Chad Bradford a few months back
Foulke at his best simply dominated with two pitches. If your vision of good Foulke is a three-pitch reliever, you're probably remembering a good game or two from last year, not his best performances before. When I'm optimistic about Foulke, I imagine him returning to his best years with just a fastball and a change, and the slider packed away for good.
Mota's been a setup guy for a few years, Mota's best pitch is a 93-96 fastball, and he had a short period of excellent control before it deserted him last year.
Mota's success was only for two years, and he did struggle in the closer's role last year, so those are the downsides. (Riske completely bombed as a closer, too, though.) But given that we don't know exactly what Schuerholz or Cox thinks, Mota seems to fit into at least some projections of their interest.
Given some of the pictures floating around the Internet of Foulke in various inebriated states, perhaps he meant Foulke was a three-PITCHER reliever. That I could believe :)
That or they could get one now.
Uh huh. And yet...
2005 Boston Red Sox bullpen ERA: 5.15
Boston Red Sox bullpen ERA rank among major league teams, 2005: 29th out of 30
2003-2005 Boston Red Sox composite bullpen ERA: 4.62
Red Sox relievers who could be said to have pitched well (in any way, shape or form) for Boston in 2005: 4 (DiNardo in 14-2/3 innings, Timlin, Papelbon, Myers)
Red Sox relievers who could be said to have pitched well in 2005, and are still on Boston's roster: 3 (DiNardo, Timlin, Papelbon)
Relievers added by Boston during the off-season: 2 (Seanez, Mota)
Average number of innings Rudy Seanez has pitched per year since 2000: 34-1/3
Guillermo Mota's 2005 ERA: 4.70
I'd focus on Seanez' and Timlin's 2005s, Foulke and Mota in '03 and '04, and I'd mention future ace reliever Hansen, marked as having the best fastball and slider in the system and likely headed to Boston by midsummer.
Joel's statement about 10 good bullpen arms is defensible, but I think it's helpful to look at the ZiPS projections Joel put together, which basically showed a whole bunch of ~4.00 ERAs. That'd be a very big improvement from 2005, and a very nice bullpen, but also probably the worst bullpen you could create out of "10 good bullpen arms" - ie, ten guys who are all pretty good but none all *that* good.
Hilarious. I will consider that his actual name from now on.
1) Tejada is out of the Beantown SS picture.
This would appear to virtually guarantee that we go into the season with a platoon of Cora and Graffanino (or Pedroia, if he demonstrates readiness in ST). If you bat that combo 8th or 9th, it's a mild improvement, all things considered, over the wreckage of Renteria we saw last year, but not great.
2) Manny's very much back in the Beantown picture in LF.
This ensures the heart of the lineup will be formidable, though it does mean a rangy CF is a must. Sox should also have a Gene Stephens-like caddy around to minimize the adverse impact of Manny's glove in certain situations, and that should affect bench construction.
3) It sure looks like Theo's planning to come back as soon as Lucchiavelli goes on to his next venture.
Which could be soon: Being part of the DC Power Scene should appeal to LL's ego, and Beelzebud could make that happen.
4) The CF options are dwindling down to a precious few.
Ultimately, I think Joey Gathright's going to wind up being the guy. TB's got little use for him except as a trade chit, and everybody else seems to have settled on other solutions (the O's, e.g., are apparently willing to take a flyer on Corey Patterson). Maybe a 3-way with SD or LA, Wells for prospect(s), prospect(s) to TB...
If, after all the drama, we wind up with a lineup of Euclis, Loretta, Papi, Manny, Trot, 'Tek, Lowell, Cora, and Gathright, how excited are we?
How I feel about this set of moves will greatly depend on the health of Foulke and Schilling. If the front office has saved money (at least $10M unspent, it seems) and picked up some young talent at the expense of those super-important marginal wins 92-95, I'll be unhappy. If they've done so with a team that projects in the area of 95 - that's the healthy Foulke / healthy Schilling scenario - then I'm fine.
I think there are a few guys here - vi definitely, Darren maybe - who expect quite a bit more from this offseason than Gathright and done. I hope they're right.
I'm sure all Red Sox fans could do this. Just don't expect anybody else to take it seriously.
"Joel's statement about 10 good bullpen arms is defensible, but I think it's helpful to look at the ZiPS projections Joel put together"
10 good bullpen arms? Sounds like 57 known communists. All of the relievers on Boston's roster have bigger but(t)s than your DH. Is Foulke a good arm? Sure, if he's healthy (a big IF). Is Mota a good arm? Sure, if you discount the fact that he's sucked for the last 1-1/2 years. Are these guys who have never pitched effectively (or at all) in the majors "good arms"? I don't know -- is there a Red Sox exception to TINSTAPP?
It's great to have 2006 ZIPS projections, but you might actually want to take a lot at Boston's 2005 ZIPS projections. If you do, you'll see a lot of relievers predicted to post ERAs in the 4.00s or lower, and a few other guys projected in the high 4.00s and low 5.00s. Presumably all of these guys were "good bullpen arms." And yet, the team's bullpen posted an ERA of 5.15. How, exactly, did that happen? And why is this year going to be any different or better?
If the FO wants Stern to start the season in AAA, that means the Pawsox will have at least 3 CFs on its roster in Stern, Durbin and Murphy, 4 if Moss can play center (anyone know if he can?). This makes me think that the Sox aren't looking for more than a stopgap solution in center to start the season, unless they can land a Crisp or Reed without giving up the farm. Are there MLEs for these guys anywhere?
I doubt there are 57 communists working for the Red Sox. Too bougy.
Just so you know, that wasn't a ZiPS projection. I wanted to be somewhat conservative in my predictions for the Red Sox, and I thought the bulpen ERAs seemed off. These are the actual ZiPS
Hansen/3.51
Timlin/3.67
Foulke/3.73
Papelbon/4.14
Delcarmen/4.28
Dinardo/4.30
Seanez/4.22
Van Buren/4.42
Mota about 4.00 (don't know exactly, as we don't have the Fenway translation)
By variance, some of these guys are going to have good first months. That's how things usually work. And Lucky Henry, just because ZiPS was wrong about the Red Sox last year doesn't mean it will be wrong about the Red Sox this year.
Preview - Moss sucks, Murphy sucks, Durbin sucks, Stern sucks except in one small sample.
I believe that none of those four will be passable major league regulars next year without huge, huge steps forward.
Now that is just a filthy lie. I would put David Ortiz' butt up against any butts in the Sox bullpen any day of the week.
what's "passable"? i said better than gathright ... not a very high standard.
bottom line is, no smart gm is going to just give us a center fielder. (unless bavasi does something stupid), we will either pay alot for a good (but not great) center fielder or go into the season with around replacement level production. since i think pedroia will produce above replacement level at shortstop, i think we can take replacement level production from our center fielder. it's not the best option for the 2006 team--that would have been signing damon to an absurd contract--but i can deal with it.
if we get better defense, healthier pitching, and a halfway decent bullpen, there's no reason why we can't match (or pass) last season's record ... big if's, i know, but what are you gonna do?
One thing to keep in mind in re: to projections is that the "average" projection works out because you have about as much "breakout risk" (upside) with "collapse risk" (downside). The reason the projections for the redsox are imho far to high is the "collapse risk" isn't equal to the "breakout risk".
I haven't run regular projections in 2 years now, but spent a lot of time with them in the 5 years previous.
Preview - Moss sucks, Murphy sucks, Durbin sucks, Stern sucks
no wonder pedroia looked so hot; his competition for the spotlight was pretty bad
1) A weighted mean will not in fact weight the breakout differently from the collapse. Do you know if ZiPS uses the median as opposed to a weighted mean?
2) How much collapse risk do the Red Sox have? If they're 2b Loretta breaks down, they have a pretty good prospect in behind him. If Lowell sucks at 3b, they have a pretty good 1b in behind him. They have 7 potential starters and 10 potential bulpen arms (some crossover). 1 of their starters didn't provide anything last year. Their closer was god awful.
3) That win projection which I offered is a run projection using ZiPS and then adding in some time for crappy players, and assuming that the pitchers wouldn't be as good as their ZiPS, and assuming that the Red Sox would enter the season with Cora and Stern at SS and in CF, one of which I don't believe will be true, and definitely won't be true by the end of the season. The projection came out to 94 wins, and then I subtracted 2 wins just because for some reason I didn't feel comfortable with thinking that the Red Sox were actually a 94 win team this year.
So explain, please, why 92 wins is outrageously high? Why is the Red Sox collapse risk worse than that of the Yankees or the Blue Jays? Yes, the Red Sox have old pitching, but they have so many starters for whom the marginal downgrade just isn't that much further. They don't have much collapse potential at 3rd, or 2nd because they have very good prospects there. They don't have much collapse potential at SS or CF because they suck right now. David Ortiz could get hurt, but I doubt his injury potential is much higher than any other player. Manny Ramirez has been one of the healthier players in the game the past few years, and the Red Sox have been very good about letting him rest when needed. Does anybody remember Youkilis's last injury? That leaves Trot Nixon who could be hurt, and some bulpen arms. That's about it.
this is a good point, and it's a reason why the red sox need to get younger (early signs have been that the red sox are actually trying to get younger this year, so that's good). if you fill your preseason roster with well compensated old guys, it will look good on paper, but there will be injuries. if you have young guys, there will be some pleasant surprises mixed with duds.
245/300/365 - Durbin
230/285/340 - Moss
245/295/350 - Murphy
270/345/360 - Gathright, and if you add in his MLB performance - 275/330/350
Adam Stern had 100 good PA in 2005, and his combined line is solid - 265/320/415. I find it much more like that line is a pretty big fluke... no, I'm wrong. Adam Stern's 2004 MLE is 295/340/410. That's darn good. His numbers before 2004 are beyond crap (he couldn't manage an OBP over .300 in A ball), so that should drop his projection a reasonable amount, but Adam Stern, if healthy and if good at defense, might just be a useful player this year.
I've got the Sox around 90 wins with a fictitious below-average but above-replacement CF. Next week I'm going to futz around with the Lahman database and try to make some Marcels for the team. I'm expecting that the Marcels will come out well below the ZiPS numbers, which just look too darn high. I'll see, though. (unless I don't.)
My predictions of what you'll find w/ ZiPS
Manny and Ortiz look just about right. So does Varitek (surprisngly consistent the past 3 years). You'll be surprised that Nixon looks just about right, because he was very good in 2003, good in 2004, and ok in 2005, but you think patterns exist more than they do. Loretta looks high, but when you look at his PF in SD and in BOS it makes sense. However, he probably is too high since he actually hasn't been hurt much by SD. You, nor I, knows what to do with Lowell, so use the number mgl gave us in that mini-study. I think it was like an .800 OPS. Youkilis is a whole different story. I think he'll be good for the .400/.400 but we'll see.
I don't know much about the minor leaguers the O's gave up to get him, but the price seemed nice 'n' low. And he's solid defensively; if I had to choose between Patterson's offensive prospects and Gathright's, I don't know which I'd favor.
Given how many other "high-variance" types we have, maybe Patterson should've been part of our deliberations. (This is, as much as anything, a sign of how desperate we're getting.)
Mota hasn't exactly shot the lights out over the last 1.5 years. I've seen JS make trades for relievers having difficulties before, e.g. Stan Belinda, but never giving up anything of terrific value for the reliever.
Relievers are usually packaged in bigger trades, and like I stated, if JS were interested in the Sox collection, I think we would have heard more about that in the Renteria deal.
FWIW, Patterson's 50th percentile PECOTA forecast for '05 was .277/.328/.474.
His actual was .215/.254/.348, which was well below his 10th percentile forecast on all fronts. Wow. Maybe Patterson's body wasn't warm but in rigor all year.
OTOH, Mike Lowell's '05 50th %ile PECOTA was .279/.348/.502, and his actual was .236/.298/.360, which was slightly above his 10th %ile for AVG and OBP, and well below it for slugging. If we're at all optimistic (fooling ourselves?) that Lowell's worth giving ABs to to see if he's going to bounce back, why wouldn't we be similarly willing to roll the dice on Patterson if the alternatives are Adam Effing Stern or Joey Can't Steal First Gathright? Seems to me, with all the question marks we've got already, that '06 is shaping up as a "cross-your-fingers-for-some-big-bouncebacks" year, with the consolation prize being you've got some kids coming if you crap out.
BTW, Patterson's ZR the last 3 years has been .869, .898, .900.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_toronto_blue_jays/
vs. left: .269 .383 .423
vs. right: .254 .342 .397
Petunia: wins SS job in spring, 550 AB, 311/380/462
Youkilis: 500 AB, 294/416/448
Papelbon: 140 IP, 2.77 ERA, 156 K, 54 BB
Ortiz: 414/608/917 in close and late situations
Beckett: makes The Leap, 219 IP, 2.48 ERA, 261 Ks
Oh, and because it wouldn't be CFBPS without him...
Byung-Hyun Kim: 84 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3-6 in first half with Detroit Tigers, traded to Red Sox in midseason in return for an improving Dave Murphy and cash considerations, throws 112 IP, 3.31 ERA, 8-4 with big wins down the stretch. Who drops out of the rotation for him? who cares? CFBPS takes care of it.
IIRC, that is pretty close to Bill James's actual projection :D
please stop that!
If his OBP is 416, I really coudln't care less what he slugs.
On Euclis, leave us remember that (a) his lifetime line is .265/.376/.411, (b) he got only 79 ABs last season, and (c) he's 27. My concern is that as he gets more exposure, the walk rate goes down as pitchers conclude you really don't have to worry about his power. I'd feel better if we were counting on him to replace Mueller's production at 3B, IOW, than if we were counting on him to be an above-average producer at 1B.
Yes, but he's replacing Millar's production. We just need the overall production lost/added to be equal from last year. I see a clear downgrade in CF, a clear upgrade at 1b, and a clear upgrade at 2nd. SS is murky.
Is there any evidence that this happens? Maybe as pitcher's realize that he won't swing at pitches on the black that they either a) try to throw them there, walking him more or b) throw him more hittable pitches and he hits .300, and his slg goes up even if his ISO goes down. I just don't get how this mechanism is supposed to work, and if it makes sense theoretically if it actually exists empirically. My guess is it doesn't.
Not to my knowledge. (Study opportunity for the non-lazy!) But it's a subject of some speculation among performance analysts, though chiefly for guys with extremely limited power. I don't think Euclis's power is negligible, and, IIRC correctly, there's been some reporting that he's on a major conditioning program this winter, which is nice to hear.
I could understand the theory for a player like Pierre or Castillo, who put the ball on the ground a lot. But Youkilis isn't a ground ball hitter (I think), he's just not a very powerful one.
1) If you had been on this earth in 1967, you'd know that a trainer named Gene Berde was largely responsible for The Impossible Dream.
2) If you are listening to anything to do with "lunatics" or "pimps," you are wasting valuable hours that could be spent obsessing over the CF problem.
Condolences.
Hmm. I'd be interested in him as a possible 4th OF. He can go get the ball (though he has an unfortunate tendency to try to go get it through walls). His lifetime .260/.316/.379 isn't very inspiring, but he'd do better as a platoon-mate and defensive sub. For which reason I'd expect the O's to hold onto him, since they have identical needs as the Sox in this regard.
It has Matos as +8 /150 g in CF. (For comparison, Reed is +20 in CF, Coco is +11 in LF).
I'd be interested in him as a possible 4th OF. He can go get the ball (though he has an unfortunate tendency to try to go get it through walls). His lifetime .260/.316/.379 isn't very inspiring, but he'd do better as a platoon-mate and defensive sub.
Is he the reckless type? That would explain his rather inconsistent record so far--good when healthy, horrible when not. I wouldn't worry too much about the career line, it includes his lousy age 21-23 seasons. ZIPS has him at .281 .339 .408, which sounds a little high. Probably end up somewhere in the middle (.270/.330/.400?).
I think he'd be a very nice fit for the Red Sox. Good defense and decent bat, right in the middle of his prime at age 27. Just enough service time that he's starting to cost money + no star power = low acquisition cost. If the price is reasonable, I'd get him and stick him in CF as my opening day starter. Thus, you're no longer over a barrel in negotiations for Reed/Coco/etc.
So what would a reasonable cost be? Is Arroyo too much? (I say yes.) Maybe a larger deal including Arroyo or Clement(w/cash) + lesser prospect for Matos and a better prospect?
Matos and Majewski for Arroyo/Clement and Moss, is that too much to ask? Reed for Clement and Shoppach and ??? Coco+??? for Marte?
Please, something happen already!
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