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Sunday, January 08, 2006

If Sox ‘change,’ Theo’s game: Former GM hints at return

Fun with Theo.

The Original Gary Posted: January 08, 2006 at 01:26 PM | 127 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   101. Joel W Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:30 AM (#1815502)
Here here Darren, every morning I wake up hoping that there is a juicy rumor for the Red Sox.
   102. Toby Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:53 AM (#1815518)
I think Matos could be ready for a breakout season, to be honest. I've been keeping tabs on him for a few years now; one of my favorite O's. That doesn't mean he becomes a star, but he could be a lot better than his career stats would project. He's had injuries and irregular playing time.
   103. OlePerfesser Posted: January 11, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#1815731)
I'm pretty sure the O's would jump at a chance to land Arroyo, given their need for SPs. They'd probably include a prospect of reasonable quality (though not top-tier, which is where they have Majewski, rightly or wrongly) with Matos to even that deal up.

Didn't one of Matos's several injuries come in a collision with the Green Monster? But Ole memories lay tricks. Anyway, he'd be serviceable, but I'd probably rather do Arroyo-for-Reed, if Bavasi's still willing.
   104. OlePerfesser Posted: January 11, 2006 at 01:44 PM (#1815751)
Oh, and I definitely share Darren's frustration over the lack of activity. At least announce an NRI or two, fer crissakes. We need outfielders outfielders outfielders!!!

To stave off boredom and anxiety, I even found myself reading Edes' 4-page history of the life of Mark Loretta.

One disquieting fact: Loretta's a union honcho... and aren't we heading into a negotiation year? And wasn't preoccupation with MLBPA business one of the reasons Tony Clark ruined 2002 for us?

I really need some sunshine therapy or something...
   105. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2006 at 01:50 PM (#1815763)
I'm pretty sure the O's would jump at a chance to land Arroyo, given their need for SPs. They'd probably include a prospect of reasonable quality (though not top-tier, which is where they have Majewski, rightly or wrongly) with Matos to even that deal up.

Didn't one of Matos's several injuries come in a collision with the Green Monster? But Ole memories lay tricks. Anyway, he'd be serviceable, but I'd probably rather do Arroyo-for-Reed, if Bavasi's still willing.
I hate to assume what trades are out there, because I really don't know. But I would be pretty shocked if either Matos or Reed for Arroyo were on the table anywhere and the Red Sox didn't immediately snatch it up. I assume that the O's and M's are demanding good prospects as well as, or much better prospects in place of guys like Arroyo.
   106. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2006 at 01:58 PM (#1815773)
I was thinking about what constitutes a "good prospect" and what a "much better one" in the Red Sox system, and I realized we don't really have any merely good prospects. I guess there's Shoppach and the 2006 draftees, but that's not a lot to work from. It's sorta odd - the point of the super-college-heavy 03-04 drafts was supposedly to create immediate depth in a weak system, but those drafts instead yielded three top-tier, near MLB prospects in Papelbon, Murton and Petunia, and just about nothing else. Abe Alvarez is probably the best of the rest, and he's not going to make the difference in any useful trade. The Sox system sorta looks oddly like the stereotype of the system of a HS-drafting team, with some impressive top level prospects and a lot of busts.
   107. covelli chris p Posted: January 11, 2006 at 02:02 PM (#1815779)
and I realized we don't really have any merely good prospects.

mdc, shoppach, murphy, and moss?
   108. Joel W Posted: January 11, 2006 at 02:40 PM (#1815845)
I'm with MCA, we don't have any merely good prospects. Shoppach is as close as it gets, I'd trade him and sign Mike Piazza. Baltimore doesn't need a catcher though.

Because of this mediocre/great split it does seem like it's harder to pull off a deal, which suggests the need for a three-way trade or a blockbuster. That, or sign Jeff DaVanon, go towards spring training saying he'll be the Sox CF, and then make a move when a team that needs a starter and has a CF comes calling.

OleP, I wouldn't worry too much about that whole Union thing. That seems like such Post-Hoc reasoning to me. Go back to 1994 and my guess is that union reps did just fine.
   109. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: January 11, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#1815859)
Pauley, Durbin ummm... Meredith?
   110. Joel W Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#1815897)
From Baseball Analysts"

"45. Adam Jones - CF - Seattle Mariners - 20 (AAA)

Introduction: When I think of Jones, I'm reminded of two players that I picked to break out this year: Reid Brignac and Mark Trumbo. The latter is an Angel that was given a bat at the pro level, despite being able to hit 90+ on the mound. Jones was in this same situation out of high school, drafted in the first round, and then surprisingly made a full-time shortstop. And like Reid Brignac, with high expectations, Jones was just OK in the Midwest League in 2004. Like many teenagers at the level, he wasn't great, but his bat showed promise for what 2005 would bring. Just like that, everything started to click for Jones, who would finish the season with an .800+ OPS in AA at the age of 19.

Skillset/Future: The big news of the offseason for Jones is that in 2006, he will no longer be a shortstop. He would likely have done fine at the position, but with Betancourt and Cabrera in the system, there was simply no room for Jones' questionable range. So, in the AFL, the Mariners moved Adam (and his big arm) to center field. In just one year, it's possible that the Mariners will have two of the five best outfield arms in the AL with Jones and Ichiro. Offensively, Adam does a little bit of everything. He won't hit for great home run power in the Majors, maybe about 20 per year, but instead profiles to slap about 30-40 doubles. He walks enough to bat in the two-hole, and managers shouldn't complain about his contact skills, which are about average. Jones likely won't show great range in center, but if he manages to find himself in the same outfield as Jeremy Reed and Ichiro, he won't have to. At worst, Adam leaves the organization to become a Ryan Freel-type player elsewhere."

So the question about Seattle is: what do they think of themselves? Are they rebuilding or contending? I know we all think they aren't contending, but they signed two big free agents two years ago, and Washburn, with King Felix, and Ichiro they might actually think they are good. If they don't actually think they're good then they'll be more likely to trade Reed, right?
   111. OlePerfesser Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#1815903)
1. I would be pretty shocked if either Matos or Reed for Arroyo were on the table anywhere and the Red Sox didn't immediately snatch it up...

Wasn't it widely reported a while back that Reed-for-Arroyo was acceptable to Bavasi, but our FO wanted him to take Clement instead? I think we may be under-rating Arroyo's attractiveness due to (a) his affordability and (b) a club's ability to control him for a few years going forward. Especially after you've dedicated most of your payroll to FAs, etc., these are important attributes.

And even aside from $$$, let's not forget that Bronson has put up 4.6 and 4.7 WARP1 the last two years. Matos has put up 5, 0.3, and 3.7 the last three. I'm pretty confident Flanaquette would be the ones doing the snatching in a straight-up deal.

2. ...that whole Union thing. That seems like such Post-Hoc reasoning to me

Well, it's definitely post-hoc scab-picking. But in Clark's case, it was part of the discussion during the '02 season, and I remember talking to some m.s.m.-types and Baseball Men who believed it at the time (esp. in combination with Clark's back issues, which required some conditioning/treatment that he just forewent). But I'm sure Loretta will be far less involved than T.C., and will have a wonderful walk year [whistles hopefully].
   112. OlePerfesser Posted: January 11, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#1815920)
Interesting info, Joel--thanks. On this:

the question about Seattle is: what do they think of themselves?

One thing to remember is Bavasi's in the 3rd year of what I believe was a 3-year deal. I'm pretty sure he's desperate to win now, since failing to do so would mark the end of his days as a GM, anywhere.

Having signed Washburn, however, I doubt that any sort of SP-for-Reed deal is as attractive to him now as it was a month ago. All his other CF options (short of shifting Ichiro there, which he apparently lacks the balls to do) involve higher risk. Reed was disappointing to him last year, but he's at least a known quantity; risk-aversion will be making him reluctant to help us fill our CF hole, methinks.
   113. villageidiom Posted: January 11, 2006 at 05:14 PM (#1816144)
I think I'm going to go crazy if they don't do SOMETHING soon. Arrghghgghhg!!!!

Wally the Green Monster traded for a ham sandwich and a bag of chips.

In other news, now I know why the win projection is so low for the team.
   114. Rudy Pemberton Posted: January 11, 2006 at 06:03 PM (#1816259)
One thing to remember is Bavasi's in the 3rd year of what I believe was a 3-year deal. I'm pretty sure he's desperate to win now, since failing to do so would mark the end of his days as a GM, anywhere.


So Bavasi wasn't trying the last few years, but now he's going to since it's the final year of his deal?

mdc, shoppach, murphy, and moss?


Are guys like Murphy and Moss really worth much of anything? AA OF's with sub 800 OPS aren't that rare, are they? If you believe one of them can play center at a plus level, maybe...but I dunno.
   115. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#1816721)
HOLY ####!

We signed Julian Tavarez?!?!?!

Julian Tavarez and the Red Sox have agreed to a two-year deal with a vesting option, according to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5239404
   116. Kevin Sweet Child Romine (aco) Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#1816746)
Wha? Are the Sox planning to have a 20-man pitching staff?
   117. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:23 PM (#1816771)
Curt Schilling, Julian Tavarez, Josh Beckett, Guillermo Mota, Keith Foulke -- we need more a-hole pitchers!
   118. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#1816778)
Well, Darren, they did something for ya. Something completely inexplicable. Julian Tavarez is a phone-punching, fan-slurring, game-one-homer-allowing #########.
   119. Joel W Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:32 PM (#1816800)
Well, Darren, they did something for ya. Something completely inexplicable. Julian Tavarez is a phone-punching, fan-slurring, game-one-homer-allowing #########.


with good BB and HR rates.
   120. Josh Posted: January 11, 2006 at 09:44 PM (#1816835)
And a 3 yr wieghted ERA+ of 140. (I know I know - that isn't how one projects.)
   121. Joel W Posted: January 11, 2006 at 10:08 PM (#1816900)
The SoSHers seem to think that this means another deal is imminent and the Red Sox just wanted another pitcher to allow them to move one of their other pitchers. This seems silly to me since the Sox already had tons of pitching depth and waiting on a deal in case they couldn't sign Julian Tavarez is foolish.

Right?
   122. PJ Martinez Posted: January 11, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#1816902)
"Wha? Are the Sox planning to have a 20-man pitching staff?"

No, I think they're trading someone. Like David Wells. As someone on SoSH noted, the Sox were supposedly looking for relief in return for the big man at some point-- now maybe they ask for a position player. Maybe they bundle Wells with a reliever, in fact, like Mota or Manny Delcarmen or whoever has the most trade value without being Hansen or Papelbon.

Another SoSHer pointed out that this is maybe shaping into a bullpen capable of the whole committee approach sadly attempted with lousy arms a couple of years ago. Maybe the Sox make Foulke the "closer" in the way that Isringhausen was for the A's a few years ago: come in with reasonably safe 9th inning leads while the heavy lifting is done by the 7th and 8th inning guys. That's assuming, of course, that Foulke makes it part of the way back, but not all the way back. Which seems feasible. Also I believe the Sox have said the closer job is Foulke's to lose, haven't they?
   123. PJ Martinez Posted: January 11, 2006 at 10:12 PM (#1816911)
"The SoSHers seem to think that this means another deal is imminent and the Red Sox just wanted another pitcher to allow them to move one of their other pitchers. This seems silly to me since the Sox already had tons of pitching depth and waiting on a deal in case they couldn't sign Julian Tavarez is foolish."

Yeah, I doubt that they were holding up a deal for that reason. This does help them make deals, possibly in the near future, but I don't think they would have held up a good deal as they waited to sign Julian Tavarez. I doubt it means anything is "imminent," although I'm sure they're working on stuff, so who knows, maybe something happen's soon. (At which point people will connect the dots, but that doesn't mean they'll be right about it.)
   124. NTNgod Posted: January 12, 2006 at 02:02 AM (#1817381)
To stave off boredom and anxiety, I even found myself reading Edes' 4-page history of the life of Mark Loretta.

Geez, considering he spent the bulk of his career with Milwaukee, that article sure zips through the Brewer years :P
   125. OlePerfesser Posted: January 12, 2006 at 01:49 PM (#1817793)
Me: I'm pretty sure he's desperate to win now...

Rudy: So Bavasi wasn't trying the last few years, but now he's going to since it's the final year of his deal?

This is a great example of how cybercommunication is far inferior to face-to-face. If we're talking, Rudy hears the emphasis on NOW, and gets that the point is Bavasi will be less likely sacrifice a smaller number of '06 expected wins for a greater number down the road.

that article sure zips through the Brewer years

All that stuff probably got edited out to focus on the horology, which really sells papers.
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