Sorry, Pete. We're not going to 'forget everything' in 2023. Between now and then we'll have many, many decisions made about steroid users, and the story will only amplify as he approaches career marks.

"It’s hard to believe that (Derek) Jeter and Ichiro (Suzuki) are both batting under .270"

They're old Pete.

Sorry, Pete. We're not going to 'forget everything' in 2023. Between now and then we'll have many, many decisions made about steroid users, and the story will only amplify as he approaches career marks.

And a lot of the old guard will die off, and more bloggers will be participating in the voting(which as a general rule seem to be guys more likely to forgive) etc. I think Arod will have very little problems getting into the hof.

and more bloggers will be participating in the voting(which as a general rule seem to be guys more likely to forgive)

Wow -- those are two very big assumptions (that bloggers will start participating in the HOF voting process, and that most of them are willing to forgive the steroid users), and I doubt either one is valid.

Dan,

Believe CardsFanBoy was referring to BBWAA opening their membership to include baseball writers who write for online publications as opposed to the previous rule of only writers who worked for daily dead tree newspapers. I believe Keith Law and Rob Neyer among others have been accepted for membership in last year or two so in 8 or 9 years they will have the seniority necessary to vote in HoF elections. His larger point was that the electorate changes. Younger writers are replacing older voters who pass on. From year to year the effect is minimal. A fifteen year span can mean a dramatic difference. The voters who have shown no inclination to vote in McGwire will not be the same group that considers a vastly superior Alex Rodriguez. In that sense, Pete Rose is right that A-Rod is in a better position than the current crop especially if he is physically able to fulfill his entire current contract thereby delaying his appearance on the ballot for quite some time.

I don't think any of us can guess whether A-Rod will be going into the Hall of Fame, it is possible that people will still be voting on in 25 years. That's a huge amount of time.

It's not just who's voting, but what's legal.

Let's imagine over the next decade a benign drug appears that doesn't seem to enhance performance, but allows torn muscle tissue to heal itself at an extraordinary rate. Another drug involving the body's own cells allows for procedures that routinely rejuvenates pitching shoulders, elbows, arms. Knee replacement evolves to the point that several players are playing and playing well with new knees. Next generation LASIK makes Ted Williams' vision easy to come by. Steroids (or whathaveyou) are going to seem like pretty small beer.

Wow -- those are two very big assumptions (that bloggers will start participating in the HOF voting process, and that most of them are willing to forgive the steroid users), and I doubt either one is valid.

The first part isn't a big assumption, as LargeBill pointed out I was referring to the influx of internet only voters that has been joining the BBWAA for the past couple of years, so there is no assumption there.

The second part is that it seems that the people joining those ranks have consistently written articles talking about the fact that it's really not feasible to avoiding voting for players when the rules allowed it to happen. I don't think it's a leap at all, 20% of the writers have clearly voted that they don't care about even admitted usage(see Mark McGwire vote totals) As time goes on, and memories fade the scandals will die down in the consciousness, and people will eventually start voting for guys, or they will die off and the younger people who are along with the majority of the fans, don't care about the issue will step in. Then you have the situation of McGwire arguably being too one dimensional for some of the voters, that they can justify not voting for him because he doesn't feel like a hofer, while guys like Bonds and Arod won't have that problem. They won't go in on first ballot of course, but both will eventually go in.

Never underestimate the tenacity of the cockroach. For several reasons, many of them bad and some of them corrupt, the hardliners are hardening. Whether in 2013 or 2015 or 2022, I think that Bonds is going to have a hell of a time getting that last 20% he'll need for election. Writers retain their votes forever after they've retired. Even when you assume they must be gone by now, they're still getting their nurses to fill out their ballots.

But don't fear the stupid chaos to come. Embrace it.

The second part is that it seems that the people joining those ranks have consistently written articles talking about the fact that it's really not feasible to avoiding voting for players when the rules allowed it to happen. I don't think it's a leap at all, 20% of the writers have clearly voted that they don't care about even admitted usage(see Mark McGwire vote totals) As time goes on, and memories fade the scandals will die down in the consciousness, and people will eventually start voting for guys, or they will die off and the younger people who are along with the majority of the fans, don't care about the issue will step in. Then you have the situation of McGwire arguably being too one dimensional for some of the voters, that they can justify not voting for him because he doesn't feel like a hofer, while guys like Bonds and Arod won't have that problem. They won't go in on first ballot of course, but both will eventually go in.

Never underestimate the tenacity of the cockroach. For several reasons, many of them bad and some of them corrupt, the hardliners are hardening. Whether in 2013 or 2015 or 2022, I think that Bonds is going to have a hell of a time getting that last 20% he'll need for election. Writers retain their votes forever after they've retired. Even when you assume they must be gone by now, they're still getting their nurses to fill out their ballots.

Has anyone ever correlated the McGwire votes to the age of the voters? Neyer and Law are two votes out of many hundred, not exactly a huge sampling.

As for Bonds and Clemens, anyone who tries making a firm prediction about their totals in 2013 is like a blind man trying to make his way through a swamp. FAIK it could be anywhere from about 35% to 80% or anything in between.

And going down the road 10 or 20 years, I notice that predictions about steroids are always couched in generalities and assumptions than are often little more than wish fulfillments, rather than what more than a tiny handful of actual BBWAA voters have written.

There's a chance that by the time ARod is eligible the HOF will be meaningless.

As for Bonds and Clemens, anyone who tries making a firm prediction about their totals in 2013 is like a blind man trying to make his way through a swamp.

Specific totals, sure, but the basic Hall of Fame math never changes: for every "no" vote, you need three "yes" votes to neutralize it. And there's a-gonna be a lot of "no" votes. And many of them will be chiseled in stone, Bedrock Daily Slab-style.

There's a chance that the HOF has become meaningless.

Seriously. If no Clemens, no McGwire, no Bonds, no A-Rod, and no Sosa, what's the point of the hall anyways?

Rename it the Hall Of Cranky Old Men. Make it's symbol an image of Ty Cobb beating a legless man, while Dizzy Dean throws spitball in the background.

There's a chance that by the time ARod is eligible the HOF will be meaningless.

Other than to McCoy? No, not really.

It's meaningless now, just as it always has been.

Like the Oscars, the process is about ninety times more interesting than the result.

I agree its meaningless, when one of the best 3b men in history never got in.

As for Bonds and Clemens, anyone who tries making a firm prediction about their totals in 2013 is like a blind man trying to make his way through a swamp. FAIK it could be anywhere from about 35% to 80% or anything in between.

And going down the road 10 or 20 years, I notice that predictions about steroids are always couched in generalities and assumptions than are often little more than wish fulfillments, rather than what more than a tiny handful of actual BBWAA voters have written.

Agree about the 2013 vote. I think it's going to be tough to make any prediction so of course I'm going to make a prediction and that Clemens does better than Bonds and neither break 50% but both break 30%.

Disagree about the wish fulfillment part, generally speaking younger writers have cared less about the steroid issue, and we are talking about a time period 13 years down the road when it comes to Arod. Add in that the fans as a majority don't give a crap about steroids and eventually that apathy will filter through to the writers.

There's a chance that the HOF has become meaningless.

Seriously. If no Clemens, no McGwire, no Bonds, no A-Rod, and no Sosa, what's the point of the hall anyways?

Greg Maddux
Derek Jeter
John Smoltz
Tom Glavine
Curt Schilling
Frank Thomas

oh, and Willie Mays
Babe Ruth
Christy Matthewson...
...
...
...

those guys.

For the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown to become "meaningless" you're going to have to put together an actual and superior alternative Hall of Fame that includes a couple of hundred Hall of Famers along with your half dozen outcasts. It won't have more than a small fraction of the memorabilia the Cooperstown HOF has. You'll have to get the new HOFers to skip the Cooperstown ceremonies and attend only your, what, NYC ceremonies? That's if you want ANY sort of legitimacy.

I don't see someone putting up $10m to get a rudimentary HOF2 started in lower Manhattan, and another 10m just to collect enough memorabilia to make it interesting, do you? I suppose if Barry and Alex and Roger and Pete chipped in they could get it going, but it's still tough to see that effort rendering the existing Hall "meaningless". They might make a dent in the current Hall, and if they want to fund a guaranteed money loser for a couple of decades they might, barely, achieve some kind of parity.

It's a meaningless honor because we know that Clemens and Bonds are among the greatest players ever, and the hell with the actual Hall itself. It's easily the most boring part of the museum.