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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, December 19, 2022Inside the Red Sox’s free agency plans after Xander Bogaerts
It’s pretty funny saying they want a “Dodgers-style of sustained success” when the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts to the Dodgers who signed him. You keep your young superstar players and get them locked up early, you don’t let them dangle until they get close to free agency. (Also see Bogaerts.)
I hope Bloom likes the criticism from multiple sources in the know. I’m sure those sources aren’t owner friendly. /s Of course, if this is true, Bloom shouldn’t be in charge.
Sure, you “can’t sit around regretting mistakes of the past.” But, you should remember and learn from them. Repeating the same mistakes over and over don’t point to the latter.
More anonymous sources laying the groundwork for the future. Anyway, there is a lot of other good stuff in the article, including info about Bogaerts willingness to take an extension after Story signed.
It’s not about the spending for me. It’s about the right spending. A team has to properly evaluate their best young players and get them signed as soon as they can. They can’t fritter away cash on mediocity and not spend money to keep their best homegrown players. Betts and Bogaerts should have been able to fit within the Red Sox long-term budget. Alas, they can’t go back. Now they either have to overpay to keep Devers or be doomed to repeat the same mistake, again. Ugh. jimfurtado
Posted: December 19, 2022 at 10:18 AM | 14 comment(s)
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Tags: chaim bloom, mookie betts, rafael devers, red sox, xander bogaerts |
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1. Nasty Nate Posted: December 19, 2022 at 11:21 AM (#6110117)This is either total cowardice from ownership or Bloom stepping up unnecessarily to take the heat off of ownership, which would seem to... also point to total cowardice from ownership.
The alternative, that you're letting your GM trade away a future Hall of Famer in his prime without your input, also doesn't look good. There's no good interpretation of this!
This has all gone so badly, so quickly, that I'm starting to doubt Bloom even makes it to Opening Day.
1) The PTSD our base has about the Mookie trade. He should have been our generational guy. Seeing Bogaerts - who nobody is saying is as good as Betts, but is a beloved player in New England, and is very good - leave for nothing presses all the wrong buttons. And you could see this coming more than a year away.
2) The standard has changed from the fans' perspective. Were we spoiled from 2001-2018? You bet. But it has raised the bar for a generation in the region for what a "good year" is. We want to be competing for championships. For ownership, they are being compared not even to other baseball owners. They are compared to the Bob Kraft (of the Patriots) and Wyk Grousbeck (of the Celtics), who have demonstrated a commitment to building consistent winners. You don't win the title every year (though, for a while, it seemed that way!), but you should demonstrating a plan for being in the conversation most years.
3) The fans' willingness to be patient, if they trust you. And the way you earn their trust is by showing you have a plan. It seems in opposition to point #2, above, but the Celtics showed that you can retain the love and commitment of the fan base if you show you are working off of a plan. Those lean years in the 2010s were nonetheless fascinating because you see "Trader Danny" Ainge working every angle, grabbing every draft pick, showing 100% fidelity to the franchise and its betterment. (It helps that he had won a title in 2008, and was a member of those 1980s great Celtics teams himself.) Bloom had some goodwill entering the job - almost like he was Theo Epstein 2.0 in training - but it is gone.
I want 2023 to be a step forward in a plan, not another "stitch it together" team of veterans on short-term contracts - even if it means winning fewer games this year.
I don't know that I really buy this. Obviously I don't live in Mookie's head ... or possibly Mookie means that if he'd still been in Boston in July 2020, he'd have signed this. My point is this deal, given its length and heavily deferred structure (about 1/3 is paid after the contract expires) was a huge bargain for the Dodgers. I understood Mookie signing it -- in the middle of a pandemic, a season with no fans and massively reduced revenue, not knowing when fans would be back at all or whether future revenues would recover. But if he had signed this deal in July 2019, I would have said he made a big mistake.
The bit on Story/X is kinda interesting. It says X would have accepted a similar deal but that all they offered was a 1/$30 extension on the 3/$60. First, that's not as bad as it sounds, 4/$90 would have been about the same AAV as Story (negotiate it up to 4/$94) ... but they are the same age so why two years shorter. I've said all along that was a weird signing and really only made sense to me if Boston had decided they hoped X would opt out and Story was his replacement. Otherwise if I only want one of them, I take the 6/$140 offer to X (or 5/$115 if I'm being cheap) then, if he declines, I sign Story. Or if I seriously want them both, I go to X and say "we're about to sign Story for 6/$140, is that cool with you and would you like the same deal?" On paper they were quite similar players, play the same position but one guy is homegrown -- wanting both is a bit weird, wanting the new guy over your fan fave would be even weirder. There's no way I make that offer to Story without having first made it to X even if I do want them both ... unless of course I've decided I want Story, not X.
It's not like it's Jeter-ARod but the Yanks did make it clear to Jeter from the start that ARod was not his competition.
In his interview with Bradford, Scott Boras said that Bogaerts' contract ended up around what his staff had forecasted before the season what the free agent market would be. If that were true, then it is absolute bullshit that Bogaerts would have accepted the Story deal. He would have accepted the phone call, perhaps. In the interview Boras was asked if Boston being so far off the mark means Boston's forecasts were wrong. He answered that a lot of times the team's forecasts are considering other factors, and alluded to the presence of Marcelo Mayer as a reason why Boston's model wouldn't suggest they should offer Bogaerts an 11-year deal.
There's a real chance Boston will have A $200 million payroll and be fifth in a five team division.
I'd be shocked if they sign Devers mostly because Devers probably doesn't want to be stuck on a declining team and he can make whatever money they will offer anywhere. My guess is Devers will be in LA as soon as the Bauer matter is settled and LAD knows what their budget is - a deadline deal.
What's worse is that bloom doesn't seem to be very good at the trading part of his job which makes matters worse.
Dan Duquette is holding on line 2.
the issue is whether you have lived in Mookie's head.
But it's the deferred structure. 1/3 of it is paid out after the contract ends -- from Mookie's perspective it's effectively 24/$365. Even the MLBPA's very conservative NPV calculations put the total down to $308 -- it's more Corey Seager's contract than it is Trout or even Harper. Given Rendon, Strasburg had signed at $35 AAV and Cole at $36 and Arenado had a 5/$175 stretch in his deal, I think pre-pandemic Mookie was looking at 10/$350-360 without any deferral shenanigans. A straight up 12/$365 is close enough to that but that was not the deal he signed with the Dodgers.
Now obviously "we think you're a little better than Machado, as good as Harper" is not an insult so it's not that I think he'd have been a fool to accept that prior to the pandemic. But, although I don't think he's as good as Trout, I thought he was a tier above Machado. In the middle of a pandemic, I fully understand not worrying about that stuff.
As it's turned out, the pandemic doesn't seem to have had any long-term effects on salary and while I'm not sure MLB will ever fully recover the attendance (in some relative sense), they seem to have come up with plenty of short-term revenue enhancements so that it doesn't matter, at least for now. That 2020-21 offseason though was ... maybe a little timid. Hard to say, it wasn't a super-strong pool of players. Bauer got his super deal, Springer (6/$150) and Realmuto (5/$115) did pretty well, Gausman and LeMahieu were very happy and McCann must have been stunned but there were no historic deals and a fair number of pretty tame ones. So I don't know that Mookie would have done much better if he hadn't signed the extension.
Note, with the deferments and a spread out signing bonus, Mookie doesn't seem to ever be paid more than $24 M a year in actual pre-tax income and that's just for years 8-10 of the contract. His actual pay in 2026-27 appears to be a bit smaller in raw dollars than in 2024-25. It will surely be nice to be getting a $11 M check in 2044 (might buy you lunch if current trends continue) but I'm sure the Dodgers appreciate the reduced cash flow going out during his playing career.
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