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Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Is Carlos Correa Really Going to Get Paid?

Looking at things as they stand currently, Correa would be no better than the 4th best option in terms of 2022 fWAR among 2023 free agents. Dansby Swanson (5.2) leads the position, with Trea Turner (4.7) just behind him and Xander Bogaerts (4.2) coming in third. Correa’s 2.2 fWAR checks in 13th among qualified shortstops.

Age wise, Turner is a bit older at 29 while Swanson is less than a year separated from Minnesota’s shortstop. Bogaerts paces the group at nearly 30-years-old, which could provide an interesting case study for Correa should he surprisingly choose to play out the string on his deal now. Making just $20 million through 2024, Bogaerts is all but certain to opt out of his contract with the Boston Red Sox, and it seems there’s been little dialogue regarding an extension.

I think you can make the case that Turner is a superior player to Correa, while Swanson’s emergence has been more recent. Bogaerts is probably ahead of the Puerto Rican as well, but again, has a bit of age constraints going against him.

Then there’s the understanding that the market would need to shift substantially. Last year Correa was looking for that big $300 million deal. He never found it, and instead signed with the Twins. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be in play needing to replace Turner, but that’d be pretty awkward given the reality that he’s the fanbase’s favorite player to boo. It’s tough to see the New York Yankees getting in after opting for Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead, and having Anthony Volpe as their top prospect near ready to go. With that, you’ve immediately taken out two of the top spenders. Oh, and Steve Cohen already has Francisco Lindor with the New York Mets.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 03:41 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carlos correa

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6093046)
Why on earth would Correa opt out into that market? He can just get his $35M from the Twins in 2023 and then opt out if he has a better season.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: August 24, 2022 at 06:58 PM (#6093093)
#1: I might agree.

The issue with the excerpt is that (surprise!) we have more than one year of data to base our evaluation of relative merit on.

2019-22 bWAR
Correa 16 WAR, 6.4 WAR/650 but only 1600 PA, turning 28
Turner 17 WAR, 5.6 WAR/650, 2000 PA, turning 30
Dansby 10 WAR, 3.4 WAR/650, 2000 PA, turning 29
Xander 17 WAR, 5.4 WAR/650, 2000 PA, turning 30

So one of those doesn't belong and the other two guys are two years older ... but also more durable to date. Correa's "problem" remains the same as last year -- he's the best SS in the game but he misses 1-2 months a year. According to DRS, he's also easily the best defender in this group (the main reason his WAR/650 is higher). There's also a disagreement this season of nearly 1 win between fWAR and bWAR but only 2 runs of that is UZR vs DRS (statcast is worse than both).

The "concern" about Correa besides playing time is that the defense may have declined substantially ... but despite that, he's only down to average and probably as good as anybody else in this group (although statcast loves Swanson this year).

This market is the same as last year's basically (Correa, Seager, Baez, Story). Granted, being paid $35 M to put off FA by a year to avoid this market is a nice choice to have and could work out well if he has a big year. I'd still like to know if he was offered Seager's 10/$320 (or similar) and turned it down or did nobody rock up with a serious offer for Correa last year. If I have to guess, Turner will get the biggest payday out of this group (at least once age, length, AAV are taken into account ... he might get pipped on total $).
   3. The Duke Posted: August 24, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6093112)
If I were Boras and Correa I'd try to add another year or two of 35-40 and take your time and pick your spot to leave. If the dodgers let Turner walk then he can come out the following year and sign with them. Or he could land wi the an Orioles or Pirates team that is about to go on 5-7 year run.

I, too, would like to know what kind of 10 year offers he got (or not ).
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:34 PM (#6093122)
If I were Boras and Correa I'd try to add another year or two of 35-40 and take your time and pick your spot to leave.

Why would the Twins do that, if he still has the option to leave at anytime?
   5. The Duke Posted: August 24, 2022 at 10:47 PM (#6093126)
Short term contracts for all stars are great deals - he's well worth it and zero long term risk
   6. Walt Davis Posted: August 25, 2022 at 08:57 PM (#6093301)
Snapper's point is that the Twins gain nothing by giving Correa additional player options. The Twins don't have "long-term" risk but if Correa gets hurt tomorrow, they are on the hook for $70 M of player options while he can walk at season's end if he wants. Why would the Twins want to make that $105 or $140 while still allowing him to walk away if he wants? Now if what you mean is that Correa exercises the 2023 option now in exchange for a new 2025 option, maybe the Twins would be interested.
   7. The Duke Posted: August 26, 2022 at 11:22 PM (#6093417)
Yes, I meant basically replicate the original deal however you get there mechanically. It's a win-win. But at some point Correa has to cash into a long term deal before he has a bad year and tanks his value. It's a risk but one that might get him much more money.

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