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Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Jackie Bradley, Jr. back to Boston in deal with Crew

In a somewhat stunning development, the Red Sox are getting their outfield wizard back.

Late Wednesday night, the Sox and Brewers agreed on a trade that brings Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Boston in exchange for power-hitting outfielder Hunter Renfroe.

In the deal, the Red Sox are also getting two Minor League infielders in David Hamilton and Alex Binelas, who were ranked 16th and 17th respectively among Brewers prospects by MLB Pipeline. Hamilton is a middle infielder while Binelas plays the corners.

Bradley is due $9.5 million in 2022 and has a $12 million mutual option for ’23 with an $8 million buyout.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 01, 2021 at 11:40 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, hunter renfroe, jackie bradley, jr., red sox

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:20 AM (#6055767)
Apparently teen-ranked prospects are the new market inefficiency.
   2. villageidiom Posted: December 02, 2021 at 08:44 AM (#6055797)
I honestly don't know how to feel about this. I love JBJ and look forward to seeing him in Boston's outfield again, so in that sense I'm happy. And I do think Boston is selling high on Renfroe, and buying low on JBJ, so that's good on paper... But that doesn't mean it's a net gain at the MLB level, nor that the prospects are enough to make up the difference. JBJ's low in 2021 was very low.
   3. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:17 AM (#6055806)
and buying low on JBJ, so that's good


Minimum of $17.5M outlay - is that really buying low?
   4. villageidiom Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:21 AM (#6055807)
2021 stats only, per BB-Ref:

player  oWAR dWAR  pos
Renfroe 
+2.3 -0.5 -0.5
Bradley 
-1.9 +1.3 +0.1 


So... Setting aside positional scarcity there was almost a 5-win difference between the two at the plate last year. But roughly 3.5 wins' worth of the gap is just 2021 JBJ vs. "normal" JBJ. Renfroe outhit "normal" Renfroe, but not by much, maybe half a win. How well that goes depends a lot on whether JBJ can rebound more than a dead cat.

On defense both players did what they do, and that makes up some of the gap on offense. Again it comes down to whether the players revert to their pre-2021 levels... at which point they would be about the same.

JBJ makes considerably more than Renfroe in 2022, so in the end this looks like Boston is buying prospects. From TFA:
Hamilton, drafted by the Brewers out of the University of Texas in 2019, has plus speed. That was displayed when the 24-year-old left-handed hitter stole 52 bases in the Minors in ’21.

Binelas, a third-round pick in last June’s Draft, is known for his promising bat. The Milwaukee-area native was thrilled when the Brewers selected him out of Louisville. In his first taste of pro ball, the 21-year-old left-handed hitter had a .309 average with nine homers and 29 RBIs in 159 plate appearances, playing 29 of his 36 games for Class-A Carolina.
Again, not sure how to feel about this. Any Brewers fans out there? Are these guys worth getting Renfroe (or depending on how you feel, getting rid of Bradley)?
   5. Textbook Editor Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:26 AM (#6055809)
There must be some other moves in play here—or at least a plan that hasn’t been disclosed.

It’s quite possible that if Kiki moves back to 2B they felt they needed a CF with range etc. and maybe they felt his bat plays better at Fenway than in the NL Central parks. I don’t know. It’s a weird move. It’s quite possible they also simply value the prospect talent higher than most and this was the price to get the deal done.

But like I said—this feels like a move made in conjunction with other moves we don’t know about yet (and now with the lockout may not for some time). I’ll be curious to hear Bloom’s comments about the rationale.
   6. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6055818)
There must be some other moves in play here—or at least a plan that hasn’t been disclosed.


Agreed. This just opens a hole at a different outfield spot for the Sox - I'd assume LF is now up for grabs, Kike is the 2B, with Arroyo the super-sub.
   7. Textbook Editor Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:11 AM (#6055824)
I suppose this puts a JDM/Schwarber LF/DH time-share in play (should they sign Schwarber). I do wonder if they'd do Verdugo in CF and JBJ in RF or vice-versa.

The team clearly must think they need 2 CF types for the 81 Fenway games. I'd be curious to see what the stats were for 2019 (JBJ + Mookie) compared to 2021 (Kiki + Renfroe). If they're trending to a more FB staff, then having guys who can catch them might be worth taking the hit on salary/offense this trade causes.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:20 AM (#6055827)
Isn't Jarren Duran a CF?
   9. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:45 AM (#6055833)
Isn't Jarren Duran a CF?


Maybe. The reports on him are that he is athletically a center fielder but he doesn't have the instincts or the reads to play out there. Defense has been the big question with him.
   10. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6055836)
I'd be curious to see what the stats were for 2019 (JBJ + Mookie) compared to 2021 (Kiki + Renfroe).


As a whole, the Sox were at .8 WAA in CF and .3 in RF last year, and .6 WAA in CF and 4.3 WAA in RF in 2019...so not close.
   11. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6055837)
Isn't Jarren Duran a CF?


That's sort of the issue with the team right now - they've got three light hitting CF's, and one cromulent corner OF. Sure, there's a potential for stellar D, but the offense is to be desired.
   12. The Mighty Quintana Posted: December 02, 2021 at 11:47 AM (#6055847)
What's next? Arroyo and Pivetta for Benintendi? Devers and Houck and Casas for Betts?
   13. Darren Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6055850)
It'd be fun if they traded Arroyo to the Angels for Pena.
   14. Mayor Blomberg Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6055859)
The team clearly must think they need 2 CF types for the 81 Fenway games.

OK, why?
   15. Textbook Editor Posted: December 02, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6055872)
#10–thanks, jackstone. I should have specified I was talking about defense only and not overall. Defensively I was curious how CF/RF fared in 2021 compared to 2018/2019.
   16. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 02, 2021 at 02:24 PM (#6055892)
#10–thanks, jackstone. I should have specified I was talking about defense only and not overall. Defensively I was curious how CF/RF fared in 2021 compared to 2018/2019.


Quick and dirty - 20 rfield from Betts + JBJ (all Betts) and 13 from Renfroe + Hernandez (-1/14). Down year for JBJ, outside of a very good 2019 typical for Renfroe, typical for Betts, and looks like a very good year for Kike, tough to tell with him he's jumped around so much.


2018 blows 2021 out of the water - combined 32 rfield.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6055909)
Maybe the minor-leaguers will pan out but Renfroe is one of the few poor trades the Rays have made, giving up Cronenworth and Pham. They non-tendered Renfroe at the end of the year.

OK, why?

Because both CF and RF are huge. Betts, Drew, Nixon, Evans -- a long line of good defensive RF have played there for most of the last 50 years. Some other folks listed as "starters" at b-r for shorter periods: Pillar, Victorino, Kapler, Bragg, Billy Hatcher, Reggie Smith -- mostly former CFs although Kapler not a good one. The only below-average guy they had out there on a regular basis seems to be O'Leary; the aging Brunansky was average by TZ. Either Boston has long thought that RF defense was important for them or they have gotten quite lucky.
   18. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: December 03, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6056056)
My recollection of O'Leary is that he was mostly in LF. I'll check....he played a lot more RF than I remembered. Probably because it was an ugly RF.
   19. Buck Coats Posted: December 03, 2021 at 05:21 PM (#6056072)
The Rays did also get Xavier Edwards in that trade - the last Fangraphs update ranks him 4th in the Rays system, 62nd overall.
   20. NattyBoh Posted: December 03, 2021 at 08:53 PM (#6056091)
My recollection of O'Leary is that he was mostly in LF. I'll check....he played a lot more RF than I remembered. Probably because it was an ugly RF.


Some folks' recollections would be of Mrs. Troy O'Leary.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2021 at 03:03 AM (#6056108)
#19: I will partially withdraw my comment. For some reason I thought Cronenworth and Pham had been in SD for 3-4 years and that Pham had a good season along the way. Pham really wasn't that useful and is now FA. Cronenworth has been excellent so far and it's still unlikely Edwards (or most prospects) will return that kind of value. But you never know. As to Edwards, I see that he has just 1 HR in over 1000 minor-league PAs. The BA is great, the speed looks good but the Rays seem to have decided he's not a SS (not that they need one anytime soon). Upside ... Nick Madrigal?
   22. The Mighty Quintana Posted: December 04, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6056121)
My preferred outfield setup would be Schwarber in LF at home games, with Duran taking over on the road. Bradley playing CF, but being spelled by Duran when he goes into his annual funk, and Verdugo every damn day in right until he wins a batting title.

And JD should never ever see the green grass of the Fenway OF again. This would suppose Schwarber can play a decent 1B in road games, with Dalbec mixed in at all corners and DH.

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