Jacob deGrom’s Run Support Is As Lacking as You Think

There are many ways to measure poor luck, so let’s look at another: win-loss record vs. expected record, based on runs allowed and team run support. Basically, using the “Pythagorean” theorem — air quotes here because no triangles — I re-estimated every pitcher’s expected win total if their teams had scored their average number of runs per game rather than the team’s actual performance. We have this data going back to 2002, which seemed a logical cutoff mark and should capture every active pitcher. As I’m ranking pitchers by most missing wins per 30 games started, I’ve limited it to pitchers with 100 total starts.

By this estimate, if the Mets just scored runs the way they do for their other pitchers, it would add roughly 17 wins to deGrom’s career line, shifting his record to a healthier 89-34. That’s the second-most in baseball behind Ryan Franklin during his years with Seattle. Franklin didn’t pitch well in those Mariners seasons, but his 30-49 record was much worse than you would have expected from a pitcher with a 98 ERA+. If we consider only those pitchers we think of as stars (sorry, Ryan), deGrom comes out on top (or is it the bottom?) here.