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Thursday, April 29, 2021

Jacob deGrom’s Run Support Is As Lacking as You Think

There are many ways to measure poor luck, so let’s look at another: win-loss record vs. expected record, based on runs allowed and team run support. Basically, using the “Pythagorean” theorem — air quotes here because no triangles — I re-estimated every pitcher’s expected win total if their teams had scored their average number of runs per game rather than the team’s actual performance. We have this data going back to 2002, which seemed a logical cutoff mark and should capture every active pitcher. As I’m ranking pitchers by most missing wins per 30 games started, I’ve limited it to pitchers with 100 total starts.

By this estimate, if the Mets just scored runs the way they do for their other pitchers, it would add roughly 17 wins to deGrom’s career line, shifting his record to a healthier 89-34. That’s the second-most in baseball behind Ryan Franklin during his years with Seattle. Franklin didn’t pitch well in those Mariners seasons, but his 30-49 record was much worse than you would have expected from a pitcher with a 98 ERA+. If we consider only those pitchers we think of as stars (sorry, Ryan), deGrom comes out on top (or is it the bottom?) here.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 29, 2021 at 02:50 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jacob degrom, mets

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   1. Rough Carrigan Posted: April 29, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6016234)
Is there another Mets pitcher who's been getting overly generous run support, by contrast?
   2. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: April 30, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6016349)
The bigger problem for the Mets is that they're struggling to score no matter who is on the mound, ranking last in the majors at 3.0 runs per game.
   3. Jose Canusee Posted: May 01, 2021 at 02:06 PM (#6016469)
If both the Mets and their opponents don't score much then it can be a park factor. Going to a second level would be the quality of pitching the Mets face with deGrom on the mound compared to the rest of the games. However, that also might be misleading because if I am down 3-0 in the 7th vs. deGrom I might leave my starter in to absorb another run or two or put in my #5 reliever rather than #2. However, in a tie game or if I am ahead I might play it like a playoff game and yank my starter at the first sign of tiredness and have my closer attempt a six-out save to steal a win.
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2021 at 06:13 PM (#6016482)

If both the Mets and their opponents don't score much then it can be a park factor.

They're scoring 2.9 R/G, and the next worst in the NL is 3.5. They've scored 2.8 R/G at home and 3.0 on the road, so it's hard to blame it on the park.

They have a league-low .349 SLG. And they're batting .176 / .287 / .229 with RISP. Yes, that's right, they are slugging .229 with RISP.
   5. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6016484)
I was at Wednesday night's 1-0 loss.

while attendance was limited to 8,000, there are plenty of parks where it sounds like more.

but the Mets batters seem so terrified when deGrom pitches that it's palpable in the stands - and it leads to near-silence on the part of the crowd.

it just seems silly to get loud and pretend that we don't know what we know. a little bit hard to describe beyond that.


and the Mets' broadcast just panned into the dugout, where you could see that one of the coaches was reading a BBTF thread.

and Mets get 4 runs in the first inning - with all 4 runs scoring from scoring position on two doubles and a single.

   6. Adam Starblind Posted: May 02, 2021 at 10:24 AM (#6016521)
[5]. Wow. That’s remarkable given that this site gets about four comments a day now. Maybe one of the coaches is Walt or Dave?

P.S. I’d still be interested in purchasing this site with a computer-literate partner as a turnaround project.
   7. helton Posted: May 02, 2021 at 11:47 AM (#6016525)
Rough Carrigan - In 2019 the Mets averaged 4.9 rpg. Jacob's RS was 3.6. Noah was 4.9, Wheeler 4.7, and Stroman 5.3.

In 2018, the Mets averaged 4.2 rpg. Jacob's RS was 2.9. Noah was 4.7, Wheeler 4.3, and Matz 3.1.

I think deGrom has just been very uncharmed.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 02, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6016531)

[5]. Wow. That’s remarkable given that this site gets about four comments a day now. Maybe one of the coaches is Walt or Dave?

You got me. I am secretly Chili Davis.

But seriously, if someone from BBTF is coaching the Mets, that would explain the team's hitting woes.
   9. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 02, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6016542)
. . . where you could see that one of the coaches was reading a BBTF thread.
Ron Darling probably tipped the Mets coaches on how insightful the comments are here.
   10. Rally Posted: May 03, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6016667)
Even weirder is that deGrom is doing more than his part to provide himself with offense. He's batting .462 so far. But mostly singles, and if you're a singles hitter it takes cooperation to turn those into runs.

deGrom does have some power, he hit 2 homers in 65 AB in 2019. He might win a few games if he can pull off a Drysdale/Newcombe style 7-homer season. Swing for the seats Jake, you're going to have to do this yourself.

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