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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Japanese baseball to play remainder of preseason without spectators due to virus fears

Nippon Professional Baseball announced Wednesday it will hold all 72 of its remaining preseason games behind closed doors, becoming the latest Japanese sporting body to take drastic steps to address the spiraling coronavirus crisis.

It follows an announcement by the Japan Rugby Football Union earlier in the day that it will postpone 16 games across two rounds of the 2020 Top League season.

Representatives from NPB’s 12 teams decided at an extraordinary meeting to hold the popular sport’s preseason in empty stadiums a day after the Yomiuri Giants said fans would be barred from two preseason games this weekend at Tokyo Dome. NPB’s regular season is slated to open on March 20.

“This was a bitter decision to make. Because we can’t determine the situation, I won’t say anything right now about (opening day),” NPB Commissioner Atsushi Saito said. “If possible, we all want to go ahead on March 20.”

 

 

QLE Posted: February 27, 2020 at 12:39 AM | 51 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: coronavirus, japanese baseball

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   1. Rally Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5926778)
I believe the Marlins are planning on doing the same for regular season games.
   2. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: February 27, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5926836)
I will be bummed out if this foreshadows the cancellation of the Olympics.
   3. Greg Pope Posted: February 27, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5926849)
I will be bummed out if this foreshadows the cancellation of the Olympics.

Mrs. Pope loves the Olympics and we have been considering going this year. I think we'll have to put those plans on hold.
   4. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: February 27, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5926851)
I will be bummed out if this foreshadows the cancellation of the Olympics.

They can wait until late May to make a decision.
   5. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5926853)
Japan's decision to close schools for a month is certainly worrying....

IDK, man... we're obviously kicking things around a lot at the exile pad - but I'm kind of putting a lot of plans off for a month and waiting to see how this all goes. I'm just glad I'm a telecommuter already - and I likewise will laud my company for being proactive. We're global - and I already had some international plans cancelled by the home office, if you will. I very much appreciate them making the decision for me. I'm certainly not a panic guy, but the fact is - pandemics are a fact of human existence and we've never really had one in our lifetimes.
   6. PreservedFish Posted: February 27, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5926857)
I feel like I don't have a good handle on whether or not this reaction is appropriate.

I have plans for an overseas jaunt in two months - really hoping to keep those plans.
   7. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5926860)
I'd be surprised if the Olympics got cancelled. The only Olympics to be cancelled previously were during the World Wars (1916, 1940, 1944). I remember a scare over the Zika virus in Brazil in 2016, but it didn't ultimately affect the games.
   8. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5926861)
I feel like I don't have a good handle on whether or not this reaction is appropriate.


I suppose no one really does... it doesn't help that ground zero is a totalitarian nation where quarantine and lack of free movement are baked in, not to mention said regime isn't what you'd exactly call "transparent".

The democratic world - be it Japan, here, or Europe - has a more difficult mountain to climb.

IMO, so long as the experts aren't recommending more than precautions, we take advantage of our free society in two ways:

1) Individuals make their own individual informed choices and do as they will, but simultaneously, we'd be better served to also

2) At least calmly and rationally consider and plan for a possibility like schools being shuttered for a month and some manner of travel restrictions, even domestically.

It just seems both wise and logical that we're better served considering potential expert recommendations - even if they are disruptive - while we've got that luxury rather than waiting until we no longer have that luxury and it gets ugly.
   9. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5926862)
Probably overblown, but I got on Amazon and bought 100 masks to beat the run on them I think very well might be coming. I'm putting significant non-zero odds on this ending or virtually ending the American cultural tradition of the handshake. Only like 4 or 5 to 1 odds against.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5926865)
Probably overblown, but I got on Amazon and bought 100 masks to beat the run on them I think very well might be coming.

You know doctors say those do nothing to protect you from catching the virus, right? They only work if the person with the virus is wearing them.
   11. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5926866)
You know doctors say those do nothing to protect you from catching the virus, right?


That's the most likely thing. It's not certain. Plus if I wear one it will stop me from touching my face, which I'm terrible at. And now come to think of it, wouldn't touching your face with a mask on it be less likely to afflict one with a virus lurking on one's fingertips?
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5926868)
That's the most likely thing. It's not certain. Plus if I wear one it will stop me from touching my face, which I'm terrible at. And now come to think of it, wouldn't touching your face with a mask on it be less likely to afflict one with a virus lurking on one's fingertips?

Problem is, you touch the mask. You're going to take it on and off a bunch of time during the day.
   13. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5926870)
You know doctors say those do nothing to protect you from catching the virus, right? They only work if the person with the virus is wearing them.


My understanding is that even if you have the "level 3" mask, which supposedly is an effective barrier to the virus - if you're not also wearing goggles, you've wasted a mask.
   14. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 27, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5926872)
My understanding is that even if you have the "level 3" mask, which supposedly is an effective barrier to the virus - if you're not also wearing goggles, you've wasted a mask.
That's exactly what Big Goggles wants you to believe.
   15. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5926879)
I don't think adults at work are the main transferrer of viruses, but kids at daycare/school (but most especially young kids at daycare). There's just no stopping every kid in the room from sharing their germs with every other kid in the room. Almost every family I know that has 3 or more children, someone in the family is sick pretty near 100% of the time. By the time one cold has run its course through the family, the next one is on deck and ready to step into the box (or already has).

There is an event horizon beyond which this pandemic (or any other) will run away and infect pretty much everyone, and IMO it is probably pretty early in the game in the U.S. If American kids start to contract the virus in any significant numbers, it's game over. Close the schools if you want, but you can't close the daycares; people aren't going to quit their jobs to stay home with their toddlers for a month or two.
   16. Tin Angel Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5926884)
Probably overblown, but I got on Amazon and bought 100 masks to beat the run on them I think very well might be coming.


Nah, despite doctors saying that masks don't protect you from it you should probably buy a few thousand more. Just to be safe.
   17. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5926885)
There is an event horizon beyond which this pandemic (or any other) will run away and infect pretty much everyone, and IMO it is probably pretty early in the game in the U.S. If American kids start to contract the virus in any significant numbers, it's game over. Close the schools if you want, but you can't close the daycares; people aren't going to quit their jobs to stay home with their toddlers for a month or two.


I don't think the point of such closures/quarantines is absolute stop of transmission... it's an effort in mitigation.

We're not talking zombie apocalypse here - we're talking about trying to limit exposure such that available resources which will be stretched beyond capacity anyway can at least get some kind of moderate relief.

Plenty of people would get sick... an alarmingly large number of them will require acute care... a smaller - but still alarming - number of them will die. Those alarming numbers will be weighted by already vulnerable folks - those with already compromised systems, the elderly, and the young.

Personally?

I think when we imagine a response - it's not solely about test kit and mask production... it's also about considering things like say, a fund purposed so that we might be able to do something incentivize businesses and individuals who might say "we cannot afford it" to stay home.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5926887)
be able to do something incentivize businesses and individuals who might say "we cannot afford it" to stay home.

In a severe situation people and businesses won't be given that choice.

We're not talking zombie apocalypse here - we're talking about trying to limit exposure such that available resources which will be stretched beyond capacity anyway can at least get some kind of moderate relief.

Plenty of people would get sick... an alarmingly large number of them will require acute care... a smaller - but still alarming - number of them will die. Those alarming numbers will be weighted by already vulnerable folks - those with already compromised systems, the elderly, and the young.


Right. 30,000 people die in a typical flu season. If this year it's 100,000, it will be tragic for those people and their friends and families, but it will not have a societal impact.

In the 1919-20 flu pandemic 600,000 people died in the U.S., and probably 60 million died world wide, but the world was back to business as usual within a year.
   19. jmurph Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5926892)
In the 1919-20 flu pandemic 600,000 people died in the U.S., and probably 60 million died world wide, but the world was back to business as usual within a year.

We didn't have cable news and Facebook back then.

(My serious answer is that a year is an extremely long time for a society to not be business as usual!)
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5926894)
We didn't have cable news and Facebook back then.

(My serious answer is that a year is an extremely long time for a society to not be business as usual!)


And they had just fought WW1.

My serious answer is that humans are hugely resilient. Even several hundred million deaths would not really damage civilization long term.
   21. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5926895)
In the 1919-20 flu pandemic 600,000 people died in the U.S., and probably 60 million died world wide, but the world was back to business as usual within a year.


In 1919-20 - the US had a population of about 100m.

Doing the extrapolation - if 1.8m die.... well, sure.... the world will get back to business.

But - if you consider the odds, all of us would likely be attending a funeral for a family member, friend, or colleague.
   22. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5926898)
We didn't have cable news and Facebook back then.


The government would order full-scale quarantine and worse before it would let anything like 1919 flu mortality numbers happen again.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5926900)
But - if you consider the odds, all of us would likely be attending a funeral for a family member, friend, or colleague.

The death rate was 0.6 per thousand. So, not all of us, but many, yes.

I'm not saying it wouldn't be tragic, but 3 million people die every year.
   24. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5926902)
I'm not saying it wouldn't be tragic, but 3 million people die every year.


We're getting into "all deaths are exactly the same" territory again, the thing a bunch of people trotted out with illeg ... er ... undocumented immigrants, but the problem is no one thinks that way. You don't react to a Sandy Hook by saying, "What's the big deal, 2,500 (*) kids under 10 will get hit and killed by cars this year." No one thinks that way.

(*) Or whatever.
   25. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5926903)
We're not talking zombie apocalypse here
That's what someone trying to cover up a zombie apocalypse would say.
   26. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5926904)
That's what someone trying to cover up a zombie apocalypse would say.


Not cover it up, my good man... just seeing who I let into my Alexandria.

I actually quit watching the show at roughly that time. How did that work out?
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:10 PM (#5926908)

The government would order full-scale quarantine and worse before it would let anything like 1919 flu mortality numbers happen again.


Of course. The only reason 1919 was so bad, even given the medical technology, is that WW1 had just happened.
   28. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5926910)
The 1919 flu equivalent would be like 1.8 million deaths. Virtual panic will set in with corona at something like 100 deaths. If it ever gets to even like 3,000, we'll be in virtual total lockdown. The threshold is probably short of that.

   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5926913)
We're getting into "all deaths are exactly the same" territory again, the thing a bunch of people trotted out with illeg ... er ... undocumented immigrants, but the problem is no one thinks that way. You don't react to a Sandy Hook by saying, "What's the big deal, 2,500 (*) kids under 10 will get hit and killed by cars this year." No one thinks that way.

Deaths to people I care about are all very important to me. All other innocent people are the same. I don't feel any worse about the kids at Sandy Hook than the kids who's Mom drowned them, or a person that gets hit by a bus tomorrow.

Rationally, all innocent deaths are exactly the same. Every innocent human being has equal intrinsic worth.

Emotionally, the death of my best friend was much worse than Sandy Hook or 911 or any number of strangers. But that's emotion.
   30. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:14 PM (#5926914)
The 1919 flu equivalent would be like 1.8 million deaths. Virtual panic will set in with corona at something like 100 deaths. If it ever gets to even like 3,000, we'll be in virtual total lockdown. The threshold is probably short of that.

That's the right response. We already should have cut off all international travel.
   31. . Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5926917)
Rationally, all innocent deaths are exactly the same.


A lot of things said to be rationally true and that probably are rationally true aren't acted upon by the vast majority of humans in the rational way.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "innocent deaths." If you mean the "deaths of innocents," no they aren't exactly the same. It's not the same for a six year old to die by accidental drowning than it is getting shot by a madman in your classroom. Just as it wasn't the same for a six year old to die at Auschwitz. For the six year old, I guess you could make the hyper-rational case that it kinda sorta is, but for the people who survive the event and read and hear and talk about it, it isn't even close. Anne Frank's death wasn't the same as if she'd been hit by a car. This really isn't that complicated.

But in any event, we're getting far afield. The US government and society aren't going to shrug off corona deaths in anything like the rational proposition. It's going to be the complete opposite, actually.
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5926919)
A lot of things said to be rationally true and that probably are rationally true aren't acted upon by the vast majority of humans in the rational way.

Sure, but if your choice was to save your wife or your child's life vs 1 billion strangers, you'd choose your wife or your child. So would I. Society won't let you act that way, for good reason. It's not a viable moral calculus to act on generally.
   33. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5926920)
My serious answer is that humans are hugely resilient. Even several hundred million deaths would not really damage civilization long term.

...
We already should have cut off all international travel.
Huh?
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5926922)
Huh?

We will survive, that doesn't mean we shouldn't stop as many people from dying as possible.

The virus will get weaker as it spreads. The longer we delay mass exposure, the lower the death toll.

In 1919 Australia closed its borders for 6 months and suffered virtually no flu deaths b/c when the virus came, it was much weakened.

All optional international travel should be stopped. essential travel should be strictly monitored and quarantined where appropriate.
   35. PreservedFish Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5926924)
Is that something that's always true of all viruses?
   36. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: February 27, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5926927)
You'll forgive me if "STOP LETTING FOREIGNERS IN!!!" seems to be the proverbial hammer in search of a nail on the right.
   37. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5926939)
You'll forgive me if "STOP LETTING FOREIGNERS IN!!!" seems to be the proverbial hammer in search of a nail on the right.

The bigger issue is probably Americans going abroad and then coming back.

Anyway, I would think that you want to slow down the spread as much as possible so that your medical facilities are prepared for it rather than being overwhelmed as they are in Wuhan.* And if you can prevent it from spreading too much until the summer, hopefully the warmer weather helps you reduce the spread. And maybe by the time it gets cold again they'll have a vaccine available. There's already clinical trials happening although I have no idea how likely something like this is to succeed.

* I saw an article today claiming that the COVID-19 fatality rate outside of Hubei province (even within China), is only 0.4%. The ~2% rate commonly cited is a combination of a 2.9% rate inside Hubei and 0.4% outside of Hubei. 0.4% is still higher than ordinary seasonal flu (0.1% commonly cited), but a lot lower than SARS (9.6%) or the 1918 flu pandemic (2-3%).
   38. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5926940)
A primer on when the right believes it's fine to take away people's rights and when it is not would be useful.

"You can't take away that madman's guns, because he has rights and you can't prove he will use it to harm someone."

"We have to stop people from going to the Bahamas, just to be safe."
   39. Tin Angel Posted: February 27, 2020 at 06:32 PM (#5926941)
Not sure what you guys are so worried about, Mike Pence is totally on top of this.
   40. Zonk Wants Justice for Carolyn Gombell Posted: February 27, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5926945)
We have a medical field of study called epidemiology.

Together with other fields, I think they provide the recommendations we should most heed.

If that means selective or broader travel bans, quarantine, or whatever.

   41. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: February 27, 2020 at 07:38 PM (#5926948)
Jeff Tiedrich:
“Rest easy everyone, the guy who said to rake the forest and water-bomb the cathedral and nuke the hurricane knows exactly how to handle this global pandemic thing.”
   42. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: February 27, 2020 at 09:03 PM (#5926957)
It would be nice if this thread didn't get nuked from orbit for turning all OTP.

After work the wife & I went to Home Depot to buy supplies for a big oil painting project, and naievely went across the store in search of masks. When I die of paint fume inhalation this weekend I will be an uncounted victim of the COVID-19 epidemic.

* I saw an article today claiming that the COVID-19 fatality rate outside of Hubei province (even within China), is only 0.4%. The ~2% rate commonly cited is a combination of a 2.9% rate inside Hubei and 0.4% outside of Hubei. 0.4% is still higher than ordinary seasonal flu (0.1% commonly cited), but a lot lower than SARS (9.6%) or the 1918 flu pandemic (2-3%).
It's way to early to know much of anything about death rates, if only because a very large percentage of all of the people who've ever had the disease, probably the majority of them, are still actively sick. The most recent numbers from South Korea had 13 deaths, 26 recovered, and 1750+ confirmed infections. How many of those 1750 will die is anyone's guess, as is the number who have recovered and not reported it, as is the number of infections that haven't been (and maybe never will be) diagnosed.
   43. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: February 27, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5926960)
Come each chicken with me dearee, it's so dark.
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5926961)
The bigger issue is probably Americans going abroad and then coming back.

Anyway, I would think that you want to slow down the spread as much as possible so that your medical facilities are prepared for it rather than being overwhelmed as they are in Wuhan.* And if you can prevent it from spreading too much until the summer, hopefully the warmer weather helps you reduce the spread. And maybe by the time it gets cold again they'll have a vaccine available. There's already clinical trials happening although I have no idea how likely something like this is to succeed.


Yes, exactly.
   45. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 09:46 PM (#5926962)
We have a medical field of study called epidemiology.

Together with other fields, I think they provide the recommendations we should most heed.

If that means selective or broader travel bans, quarantine, or whatever.


And the CDC told the State Dept. not to repatriate those cruise ship passengers from Japan. The State Dept. did it anyway, and didn't tell the military base they were going to what to expect. That appears to be the cause of the first case of non-direct exposure.
   46. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5926964)
A primer on when the right believes it's fine to take away people's rights and when it is not would be useful.

"You can't take away that madman's guns, because he has rights and you can't prove he will use it to harm someone."

"We have to stop people from going to the Bahamas, just to be safe."


Well, you have a Constitutional right to free speech, free exercise of religion, owning guns, etc., etc. You have no right at all to leave the country and re-enter except under the conditions the Federal Gov't sets. Non-citizens/resident aliens have no right to enter the country at all.

So, the first set of rights should be inviolate. The latter are at the discretion of the authorities.
   47. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 10:00 PM (#5926967)

OOC, does anyone actually go to NPB preseason games ordinarily? I mean, there's a pretty big difference between keeping 40,000 fans away and keeping 175 away.
   48. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5926972)
OOC, does anyone actually go to NPB preseason games ordinarily?

Judging from the crowd shots I've seen at NPB games, the fans need the pre-season as much as the players do. Those chants and drumbeats and whatnot don't just learn themselves.
   49. Tom Nawrocki Posted: February 27, 2020 at 10:47 PM (#5926974)
All optional international travel should be stopped. essential travel should be strictly monitored and quarantined where appropriate.


What kind of international travel is not optional?
   50. Meatwad Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:27 PM (#5926978)
Way late to the party but sbb there has already been a run on those masks. Cant find any in town here. I know this not out of virus fears but other reasons. Most companys that make them are in china and not sending stock overseas. I suspect hospitals will begin having issues getting them.
   51. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:56 PM (#5926982)

What kind of international travel is not optional?


In a sense all travel is optional, but what I assume was meant was, say, the billions of dollars we do in trade each year. The people who live in Canada and work in the US, and vice versa. Same for Mexico.


Way late to the party but sbb there has already been a run on those masks. Cant find any in town here. I know this not out of virus fears but other reasons. Most companys that make them are in china and not sending stock overseas. I suspect hospitals will begin having issues getting them.


One thing a lot of people don't understand is that the masks are rated for 4 hours use only. After that they are ineffective and are supposed to be discarded.

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