Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, November 05, 2021

Japanese OF Seiya Suzuki to be posted

Star right fielder Seiya Suzuki will be made available to Major League Baseball clubs via the posting process this offseason, one source told MLB.com on Friday.

While the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball have yet to make a formal announcement concerning the 27-year-old’s future, the club is expected to do so after the Japan Series concludes later this month. The 2021 NPB season is ending later than usual, because the league schedule paused during the Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

Once his posting window opens, Suzuki will compete with free agent Starling Marte as this winter’s top available outfielder. Suzuki is a five-time NPB All-Star, and he has excelled internationally, winning MVP honors at the 2019 WBSC Premier12 tournament.

Suzuki is coming off a 2021 season in which he posted career highs in OPS (1.079) and home runs (38) in 131 games for the Carp. As a right-handed batter with patience, power and basestealing acumen, Suzuki has earned comparisons to Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 05, 2021 at 01:53 PM | 22 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: japanese free agents

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. . . . . . . Posted: November 05, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#6051438)
FWIW, I don't see it with Suzuki. The contact skills are obviously high end and so he's unlikely to be a failure, but he's just not that powerful by MLB standards, and he's REALLY bulked on a relatively small frame with little room to get bigger (honestly, he looks almost overmuscled/stiff in the way that McGwire used to, and I wonder if he's going to have soft-tissue injury issues as he ages).

I see a guy with less power than, but otherwise sort of similar to, Hideki Matsui (but with a more modern, loft-optimized swing). Matsui was obviously a fine player but a less powerful version of him is basically a league average OF.

YMMV.
   2. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 05, 2021 at 02:25 PM (#6051440)
my first impression right now is that he looks a lot like dustin pedroia.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 05, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6051443)
he's just not that powerful by MLB standards,
I'm sure he could hit home runs if he wants to.
   4. bfan Posted: November 06, 2021 at 08:40 AM (#6051526)
he's just not that powerful by MLB standards,I'm sure he could hit home runs if he wants to.


That is very funny.
   5. Darren Posted: November 06, 2021 at 09:26 AM (#6051535)
Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.

That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?
   6. The Duke Posted: November 06, 2021 at 12:10 PM (#6051561)
I, for one, would like to see the Angels finally prioritize hitting over pitching and go after this guy. How could they fail to make the playoffs with him added to their lineup?
   7. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 06, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6051572)
I've been watching Suzuki with interest for years. Obviously there are risks moving from NPB to MLB, but if you're going to take anyone, Suzuki is the guy you want. He's got a good eye, he's reasonably fast, and has good power. The big concern, of course, if that power usually doesn't translate well.
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: November 06, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6051596)
Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.

That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?


Then the Pedroia comparisons are even more apt.
   9. Greg Pope Posted: November 06, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6051602)
Maybe he’ll choose this as his walk up music.
   10. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 06, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6051605)
That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?

i know what you're seeing, but i don't think it's accurate.

suzuki has a lot of pre-delivery wiggle, and he has a very deliberate timing mechanism, but the swing itself is reasonably compact after his front foot starts to drop.


i would also say that what suzuki does here and here is beyond filthy. he's inside-outting 87MPH inside corner shuuto's and sending them 350+' out of the damn park. i don't watch as much baseball as i used to, but that's still insane right?
   11. McCoy Posted: November 06, 2021 at 05:20 PM (#6051606)
Japan uses a livelier ball than we do.
   12. . . . . . . Posted: November 06, 2021 at 10:02 PM (#6051703)
Yeah the problem is that in MLB those are probably outs
   13. bfan Posted: November 07, 2021 at 07:05 AM (#6051743)
Giants, Mariners, Dodgers? I assume those are the 3 most likely signing teams, probably in that order.
   14. TJ Posted: November 07, 2021 at 10:59 AM (#6051761)
Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.


Maybe I’m just a cynic, but I have to question these translations. I doubt this guy will hit like Freddie Freeman over here…

   15. Jack Sommers Posted: November 08, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6051907)
With only one notable exception Japanese sluggers just don't see anywhere near the same kind of power production in the USA.

Hideki Matsui homered in 6% of JPL PA, but just 3.5% of his MLB PA.

I don't think Suzuki is the equal of Hideki, although a lot of time has passed between their two JPL, and I'm no expert.

My default on Japanese sluggers is to cut their power potential in half and either be pleasantly surprised or mildly disappointed.

Career MLB HR by players born in Japan

   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 08, 2021 at 03:12 PM (#6051918)
Matsui started in MLB at his age-29 season, Suzuki would be in his age-27 season next year. Since Suzuki is reported to be a good fielder, I’m inclined to think he may be a decent risk on ~ 5-year deal.
   17. DL from MN Posted: November 08, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6051922)
cut their power potential in half


That gives Verdugo and Benintendi as comps.
   18. Jack Sommers Posted: November 08, 2021 at 04:13 PM (#6051930)
Matsui was a "young" 29, june birthday, Susuki will be an "old" 27 august. birthday. If Matsui born a month later it would have been his age 28 season, if Suzuki born a month earlier he'd be starting in his "age 28 season".

So really not quite as big an age gap to start MLB career as it looks.

I don't know how many homers you are expecting, but I'm definitely taking the under on the .500 slugging percentage OR the .200 ISO from the Davenport translation.

On the other hand, if he is indeed a plus defender, plus baserunner, hits for average, etc, then of course he'll be valuable even if he doesn't slug much like he has in Japan. Here are some individual season over the last 7 years since 2015 that kinda represent that. (Not a projection, or comps, just seeing what that kind of profile might look like)

For Single Seasons, In the Regular Season, from 2015 to 2021 from age 26 to 30,
Qualified for league batting title,
Played at least 33% of games at LF or CF or RF,
requiring Batting Average >= .270 and On-Base Plus Slugging >= .775 & <.825
Fielding Runs >= 0 and < 10

Sorted by WAR

Rk                Player WAR/pos  OPS Rfield   BA OPSYear Age  Tm   G  PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB  SO SB CS  OBP  SLG      Pos
1          Eddie Rosario     4.3 .803   10.0 .288  116 2018  26 MIN 138 592 559  87 161 31  2 24  77 30 104  8  2 .323 .479 
*7D/98H5
2        Randy Arozarena     4.2 .815    4.0 .274  131 2021  26 TBR 141 604 529  94 145 32  3 20  69 56 170 20 10 .356 .459   79D
/H8
3         Starling Marte     4.0 .787    4.0 .277  114 2018  29 PIT 145 606 559  81 155 32  5 20  72 35 109 33 14 .327 .460     
*8/H
4        Whit Merrifield     3.6 .811    2.0 .302  111 2019  30 KCR 162 735 681 105 206 41 10 16  74 45 126 20 10 .348 .463  498
/D37
5           Kole Calhoun     3.2 .786    1.0 .271  116 2016  28 LAA 157 672 594  91 161 35  5 18  75 67 118  2  3 .348 .438    
*9/DH
6    Lourdes Gurriel Jr
.     2.8 .785    8.0 .276  111 2021  27 TOR 141 541 500  62 138 28  2 21  84 32 102  1  3 .319 .466   *7D3/H
7        Corey Dickerson     2.7 .815    1.0 .282  118 2017  28 TBR 150 629 588  84 166 33  4 27  62 35 152  4  3 .325 .490      7DH
8          David Peralta     2.4 .796    4.0 .293  100 2017  29 ARI 140 577 525  82 154 31  3 14  57 43  94  8  4 .352 .444    97H
/D
9         Avisail Garcia     2.2 .796    3.0 .282  112 2019  28 TBR 125 530 489  61 138 25  2 20  72 31 125 10  4 .332 .464   
*9D8/H
10    Jackie Bradley Jr
.     2.0 .814    5.0 .283  117 2020  30 BOS  55 217 191  32  54 11  0  7  22 23  48  5  2 .364 .450       *


Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 11/8/2021.


   19. Darren Posted: November 08, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6051935)
I love baseball reference, and that should go without saying... but...

I really don't like the way they present Japanese League stats in terms of the Japanese Major Leagues and the Japanese Minor Leagues. All are lumped together so that any year in which a player spends any time in their minor leagues has a total line that includes both the major and minor leagues. There is also no way to just filter out the minors.

Is that feature available on Stathead?
   20. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 08, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6051940)
It's not year by year, but if you look at career totals, the NPB line doesn't include minor league performance.
   21. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 08, 2021 at 05:47 PM (#6051945)
I really don't like the way they present Japanese League stats in terms of the Japanese Major Leagues and the Japanese Minor Leagues. All are lumped together so that any year in which a player spends any time in their minor leagues has a total line that includes both the major and minor leagues. There is also no way to just filter out the minors.


I agree. If you want just the NPB stats for an active NPB player (without the minor league numbers), an easy way to get those is to use the NPB English-language player page.
   22. Rally Posted: November 09, 2021 at 09:50 AM (#6052037)
How could they fail to make the playoffs with him added to their lineup?


They’ll find a way. Just like they did after signing Pujols, developing Trout, signing Hamilton, Upton, Ohtani, and Rendon.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: Wrestling Thread November 2014
(2544 - 8:18pm, Oct 03)
Last: 57i66135 is a hard word for me.

NewsblogTo dream the impossible dream - and then decide it's time to let it go
(50 - 8:13pm, Oct 03)
Last: Zach

NewsblogHector Lopez, Who Broke a Baseball Color Barrier, Dies at 93
(24 - 8:12pm, Oct 03)
Last: BDC

Newsblog2022-23 Preseason NBA thread
(362 - 8:11pm, Oct 03)
Last: Fourth True Outcome

NewsblogShohei Ohtani to make $30 million in 2023, record amount for arbitration-eligible player
(17 - 8:07pm, Oct 03)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for the week of September 26 - October 5, 2022
(202 - 8:05pm, Oct 03)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThree impacts of baseball's new 12-team postseason format
(22 - 7:30pm, Oct 03)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogRoger Maris Jr. blasts MLB, says Aaron Judge’s potential 62nd home run should be single-season record
(122 - 7:06pm, Oct 03)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogTony La Russa expected to announce retirement Monday as White Sox manager
(15 - 7:02pm, Oct 03)
Last: asinwreck

NewsblogAtlanta Braves sign RHP Charlie Morton to 1-year, $20 million deal for 2023
(4 - 5:16pm, Oct 03)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - European Leages Return
(304 - 5:14pm, Oct 03)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogThere's a new longest last name in MLB history
(15 - 4:19pm, Oct 03)
Last: Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

NewsblogTrevor Bauer’s defamation case against accuser’s former attorney could be thrown out
(30 - 3:40pm, Oct 03)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOT - October 2022 College Football thread
(48 - 1:49pm, Oct 02)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

Sox TherapyPredictions of Ridiculousness
(143 - 12:59pm, Oct 02)
Last: Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful

Page rendered in 0.2948 seconds
48 querie(s) executed