FWIW, I don't see it with Suzuki. The contact skills are obviously high end and so he's unlikely to be a failure, but he's just not that powerful by MLB standards, and he's REALLY bulked on a relatively small frame with little room to get bigger (honestly, he looks almost overmuscled/stiff in the way that McGwire used to, and I wonder if he's going to have soft-tissue injury issues as he ages).

I see a guy with less power than, but otherwise sort of similar to, Hideki Matsui (but with a more modern, loft-optimized swing). Matsui was obviously a fine player but a less powerful version of him is basically a league average OF.

YMMV.

my first impression right now is that he looks a lot like dustin pedroia.

he's just not that powerful by MLB standards,

I'm sure he could hit home runs if he wants to.

he's just not that powerful by MLB standards,I'm sure he could hit home runs if he wants to.

That is very funny.

Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.

That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?

I, for one, would like to see the Angels finally prioritize hitting over pitching and go after this guy. How could they fail to make the playoffs with him added to their lineup?

I've been watching Suzuki with interest for years. Obviously there are risks moving from NPB to MLB, but if you're going to take anyone, Suzuki is the guy you want. He's got a good eye, he's reasonably fast, and has good power. The big concern, of course, if that power usually doesn't translate well.

Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.

That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?

Then the Pedroia comparisons are even more apt.

Maybe he’ll choose this as his walk up music.

That's a huge swing, though. It seems common in Japan though. Is it?

i know what you're seeing, but i don't think it's accurate.

suzuki has a lot of pre-delivery wiggle, and he has a very deliberate timing mechanism, but the swing itself is reasonably compact after his front foot starts to drop.


i would also say that what suzuki does here and here is beyond filthy. he's inside-outting 87MPH inside corner shuuto's and sending them 350+' out of the damn park. i don't watch as much baseball as i used to, but that's still insane right?

Japan uses a livelier ball than we do.

Yeah the problem is that in MLB those are probably outs

Giants, Mariners, Dodgers? I assume those are the 3 most likely signing teams, probably in that order.

Great contact skills, which is what usually translates well. Davenport translates his numbers to about .300/.400/.500.

Maybe I’m just a cynic, but I have to question these translations. I doubt this guy will hit like Freddie Freeman over here…

With only one notable exception Japanese sluggers just don't see anywhere near the same kind of power production in the USA.

Hideki Matsui homered in 6% of JPL PA, but just 3.5% of his MLB PA.

I don't think Suzuki is the equal of Hideki, although a lot of time has passed between their two JPL, and I'm no expert.

My default on Japanese sluggers is to cut their power potential in half and either be pleasantly surprised or mildly disappointed.

Career MLB HR by players born in Japan

Matsui started in MLB at his age-29 season, Suzuki would be in his age-27 season next year. Since Suzuki is reported to be a good fielder, I’m inclined to think he may be a decent risk on ~ 5-year deal.

cut their power potential in half

That gives Verdugo and Benintendi as comps.

Matsui was a "young" 29, june birthday, Susuki will be an "old" 27 august. birthday. If Matsui born a month later it would have been his age 28 season, if Suzuki born a month earlier he'd be starting in his "age 28 season".

So really not quite as big an age gap to start MLB career as it looks.

I don't know how many homers you are expecting, but I'm definitely taking the under on the .500 slugging percentage OR the .200 ISO from the Davenport translation.

On the other hand, if he is indeed a plus defender, plus baserunner, hits for average, etc, then of course he'll be valuable even if he doesn't slug much like he has in Japan. Here are some individual season over the last 7 years since 2015 that kinda represent that. (Not a projection, or comps, just seeing what that kind of profile might look like)

For Single Seasons, In the Regular Season, from 2015 to 2021 from age 26 to 30,
Qualified for league batting title,
Played at least 33% of games at LF or CF or RF,
requiring Batting Average >= .270 and On-Base Plus Slugging >= .775 & <.825
Fielding Runs >= 0 and < 10

Sorted by WAR



Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 11/8/2021.

I love baseball reference, and that should go without saying... but...

I really don't like the way they present Japanese League stats in terms of the Japanese Major Leagues and the Japanese Minor Leagues. All are lumped together so that any year in which a player spends any time in their minor leagues has a total line that includes both the major and minor leagues. There is also no way to just filter out the minors.

Is that feature available on Stathead?

It's not year by year, but if you look at career totals, the NPB line doesn't include minor league performance.

I really don't like the way they present Japanese League stats in terms of the Japanese Major Leagues and the Japanese Minor Leagues. All are lumped together so that any year in which a player spends any time in their minor leagues has a total line that includes both the major and minor leagues. There is also no way to just filter out the minors.

I agree. If you want just the NPB stats for an active NPB player (without the minor league numbers), an easy way to get those is to use the NPB English-language player page.

How could they fail to make the playoffs with him added to their lineup?

They’ll find a way. Just like they did after signing Pujols, developing Trout, signing Hamilton, Upton, Ohtani, and Rendon.