OK, so when does he become available to MLB teams?

OK, so when does he become available to MLB teams?

From an article on MLB.com:

"Japanese baseball observers don’t expect the Swallows to make Murakami available to MLB teams through the posting process anytime soon."

The Swallows won the Japan Series last season, and are in first place again this season. They are historically not one of the powers in NPB, and want to take advantage of this window of opportunity to put up some more flags. They want to win, and the chance of them letting their best player walk away is very small right now.

This guy is cool. I hope he breaks the record, if not this year, then in the next few

That guy is a beast. Serious Travis Hafner vibes from him.

Now that's not a comp you see every day. I know you don't mean that in an "after throrough analysis, using my super-secret model" sense but Hafner's just always an interesting player to think about. He's one of the all-time best late bloomers -- made the majors at 25, had a nice half season at 26, went absolutely nuts for three years of pretty much full-time play -- led MLB in SLG, OPS and OPS+ in 2006 -- then turned back into a solid but pretty average platoon (or fragile) DH, it finally all fell apart at age 36.

If we want an age-based, grab-your-attention comp, then Yordan Alvarez is the name we want.

Now that's not a comp you see every day. I know you don't mean that in an "after throrough analysis, using my super-secret model" sense but Hafner's just always an interesting player to think about.

I meant it in a "he's a big thick lefty who stands with his hands up and away from his body, and mashes baseballs 400 feet on the regular."

I suspect his only way to the majors before he is around 30 (10 years to free agency in Japan) is by forcing the issue with the club. Basically make it painfully clear he wants to play in the majors and that he will say so at every opportunity if they don't do something.

#6: Fair enough. I was focusing on the "beast" part. Hands aside (je ne sais pas), I think Alvarez at 6-5, "225" qualifies as big and thick too. Anyway, wasn't questioning the comp.

I suspect his only way to the majors before he is around 30 (10 years to free agency in Japan) is by forcing the issue with the club. Basically make it painfully clear he wants to play in the majors and that he will say so at every opportunity if they don't do something.

Agree, and I certainly don't blame him if he wants to continue playing in Japan. But he'll need to come over much sooner if he wants to see what he can do in MLB. The track record for NPB power hitters was not good before Ohtani, who of course came over very young relative to other Japanese players.

Agree, and I certainly don't blame him if he wants to continue playing in Japan. But he'll need to come over much sooner if he wants to see what he can do in MLB. The track record for NPB power hitters was not good before Ohtani, who of course came over very young relative to other Japanese players.

Hideki Matsui was the only really successful one, right? And even he went from a monster in Japan to a ~25 HR hitter here.

Matsui had 175 HRs in MLB and 332 in NPB for 507 career which is nice. At some point, I figured he might have been McGriff if he'd been in MLB the whole time:

HM 29-36 4400 PA 290/369/479, 123 OPS+, 161 HR, 22 WAR, 6.5 WAA
FM 29-36 5000 PA 291/374/501, 125 OPS+, 226 HR, 19 WAR, 3 WAA

Some of the HR gap is just playing time, maybe a bit is context but most of it is real -- Matsui hit a lot of doubles in those early years. The playing time difference and that Fred had two good years left while Matsui had nothing left suggest that Fred aged significantly better and so was probably the better player in their 20s too.

So similar but not quite as good a hitter as McGriff 29-36 suggests he might have been similar but not quite as good a hitter as McGriff for 23-28. But that Fred had a 154 OPS+ with 191 HRs so that still leaves plenty of room for Matsui to have been a very good hitter with maybe 150 HRs. So call it 325 career HRs, maybe 450 doubles with a 130 OPS+. That's Matt Holliday.

HM 29-36 4400 PA 290/369/479, 123 OPS+, 161 HR, 22 WAR, 6.5 WAA
MH 29-36 4500 PA 292/379/491, 136 OPS+, 167 HR, 26 WAR, 12 WAA

Hmmm ... close on rates and HRs but those contexts differ a lot more than I would have thought. The difference is not defense (-7.7 dWAR vs -7.6). Still, close enough for government work.

So, he's already signed by the Yankees, right?

I believe it's 9 years of accrued NPB service time to become an unrestricted free agent.
This is what The Ringer article on Murakami and Sasaki has to say on the subject.

To qualify as an international free agent—which the 29-year-old Senga could become this winter—an NPB player needs nine years of service, which Murakami and Sasaki are nowhere near. What’s more, MLB’s CBA dictates that international players who are younger than 25 or have less than six years of service are subject to the international bonus pool system. Even if Murakami or Sasaki could convince their NPB teams to post them before they clear those thresholds, the players would make a tiny fraction of what they’re worth, as Ohtani did when he signed with the Angels before his age-23 season. Moreover, their NPB teams would receive meager compensation for letting them go. In other words, Murakami and Sasaki are NPB players for the long haul.

How long? Although Sasaki’s status as a coveted draftee likely gave him the leverage to work out an arrangement whereby Chiba Lotte would post him when he wants to go, Allen estimates that Sasaki won’t enter MLB until 2027, a few months after his 25th birthday. He envisions Murakami crossing over at the same time, as he embarks on his age-27 season (like Seiya Suzuki this year). Coskrey says he could see Murakami making the leap sooner, in the next three to four seasons, though he also expects Sasaki’s transition to take five or six. So, settle in for a protracted wait.

I think the key point is not the 9 years, but rather the <25 and less than 6 years service time, after that threshold, their NPB teams could post them (in opening bidding with no $20 million cap, as there was with Ohtani) and receive a posting fee that is based on a percentage of the contract that the player signs.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/9/15/23354090/munetaka-murakami-roki-sasaki-npb-baseball-japan