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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, September 13, 2022Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami makes NPB home run history with 55th blast of 2022 season
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 13, 2022 at 10:35 AM | 13 comment(s)
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1. weiss-man Posted: September 13, 2022 at 03:44 PM (#6095965)From an article on MLB.com:
"Japanese baseball observers don’t expect the Swallows to make Murakami available to MLB teams through the posting process anytime soon."
The Swallows won the Japan Series last season, and are in first place again this season. They are historically not one of the powers in NPB, and want to take advantage of this window of opportunity to put up some more flags. They want to win, and the chance of them letting their best player walk away is very small right now.
If we want an age-based, grab-your-attention comp, then Yordan Alvarez is the name we want.
Agree, and I certainly don't blame him if he wants to continue playing in Japan. But he'll need to come over much sooner if he wants to see what he can do in MLB. The track record for NPB power hitters was not good before Ohtani, who of course came over very young relative to other Japanese players.
Hideki Matsui was the only really successful one, right? And even he went from a monster in Japan to a ~25 HR hitter here.
HM 29-36 4400 PA 290/369/479, 123 OPS+, 161 HR, 22 WAR, 6.5 WAA
FM 29-36 5000 PA 291/374/501, 125 OPS+, 226 HR, 19 WAR, 3 WAA
Some of the HR gap is just playing time, maybe a bit is context but most of it is real -- Matsui hit a lot of doubles in those early years. The playing time difference and that Fred had two good years left while Matsui had nothing left suggest that Fred aged significantly better and so was probably the better player in their 20s too.
So similar but not quite as good a hitter as McGriff 29-36 suggests he might have been similar but not quite as good a hitter as McGriff for 23-28. But that Fred had a 154 OPS+ with 191 HRs so that still leaves plenty of room for Matsui to have been a very good hitter with maybe 150 HRs. So call it 325 career HRs, maybe 450 doubles with a 130 OPS+. That's Matt Holliday.
HM 29-36 4400 PA 290/369/479, 123 OPS+, 161 HR, 22 WAR, 6.5 WAA
MH 29-36 4500 PA 292/379/491, 136 OPS+, 167 HR, 26 WAR, 12 WAA
Hmmm ... close on rates and HRs but those contexts differ a lot more than I would have thought. The difference is not defense (-7.7 dWAR vs -7.6). Still, close enough for government work.
This is what The Ringer article on Murakami and Sasaki has to say on the subject.
I think the key point is not the 9 years, but rather the <25 and less than 6 years service time, after that threshold, their NPB teams could post them (in opening bidding with no $20 million cap, as there was with Ohtani) and receive a posting fee that is based on a percentage of the contract that the player signs.
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/9/15/23354090/munetaka-murakami-roki-sasaki-npb-baseball-japan
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