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Tuesday, November 05, 2019

J.D. Martinez doesn’t opt out of contract with Red Sox

J.D. Martinez did not opt out of his contract with the Boston Red Sox.

By remaining with the Red Sox, Martinez can earn $62.5 million over the next three years: $23.75 million for 2020 and $19,375,000 for both 2021 and 2022. He also has the option to opt out after each of the next two seasons, as long as he does not spend a lengthy period on the injured list.

“J.D. has advised me that his decision is about assuring that he plays for a competitive team and wanting to continue to play in a place where he knows that he can be highly productive,” Scott Boras, Martinez’s agent, told The Boston Globe.

Over the past three seasons, Martinez leads the league in home runs with 124 and is second in RBIs at 339, batting average at .313, slugging percentage at .619 and OPS at 1.007 over that span.

This should make the Red Sox’s financial planning,,,,interesting, to say the least…..

 

QLE Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:14 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: j.d. martinez, opt-outs, red sox

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5898900)
I think this is a wise choice given the DH market. I'm not sure the market will be any better next year but he'd be walking away from less money and lower AAV.
   2. Tim M Posted: November 05, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5898929)
And all eyes turn to what they do w/ Mookie...
   3. Jose Canusee Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:20 PM (#5898986)
I expect if the Sox make a legit (at least to the press) offer and Betts goes elsewhere for a bit more fans will blame JD, but if he gets overpaid and the Sox were lucky not to have chased him out of desperation because JD left, no one will remember to thank JD.
   4. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5898989)
I concur with Walt that opting in was the best play for Martinez, but he's probably tradeable at 3/62 if the Red Sox just can't bear to pay him and Mookie at the same time.
   5. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 06, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5899077)
but he's probably tradeable at 3/62 if the Red Sox just can't bear to pay him and Mookie at the same time.


Yep. If Betts gets traded and Martinez does not I will be very bummed, and probably not pay attention to the Sox for a while.
   6. pikepredator Posted: November 06, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5899120)
if the Red Sox just can't bear to pay him and Mookie at the same time.


they can bear it. they should bear it. It's possible Mookie will end up overpaid, but far more likely he continues to be a superstar (possibly both, which is worth it). Sox fans pay top dollar for exactly this scenario. Ownership needs to deliver.
   7. I Am Not a Number Posted: November 06, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5899157)
It's possible Mookie will end up overpaid

Given his track record (WAR from 2015-2019: 6, 10, 6, 11, 7), what does overpaid even look like? My sense is that players in this stratosphere invariably end up underpaid.
   8. DCA Posted: November 06, 2019 at 01:33 PM (#5899163)
My sense is that players in this stratosphere invariably end up underpaid.

Underpaid with respect to past performance, certainly. But do they earn their money during the megacontract period?
   9. RJ in TO Posted: November 06, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5899169)
Underpaid with respect to past performance, certainly. But do they earn their money during the megacontract period?
I thought superstars generally performed up to their contracts, depending on the threshold of performance you set for what constitutes a superstar.

In the case of Betts, who will be hitting free agency at the age of 27, he seems like a strong bet to be worth more or less whatever contract he gets, as it'll still likely include much of his prime. Yes, there will likely be some tail end to the contract where he's overpaid, but he'll also likely provide a lot of surplus value (on a $/WAR basis) for the first several years.
   10. DCA Posted: November 06, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5899176)
Betts has 30.4 WAA (42 WAR) through his first 6 seasons, age 21-26.

Age 21-26, integration era, 24-36 WAA:

1 Albert Pujols 34.0 2001 2006
2 Rickey Henderson 33.6 1980 1985
3 Alex Rodriguez 32.7 1997 2002
4 Mookie Betts 30.4 2014 2019
5 Hank Aaron 30.3 1955 1960
6 Ken Griffey Jr. 30.1 1991 1996
7 Barry Bonds 29.2 1986 1991
8 Eddie Mathews 28.9 1953 1958
9 Andruw Jones 26.8 1998 2003
10 Willie Mays 26.4 1952 1957
11 Johnny Bench 26.2 1969 1974
12 Cal Ripken Jr. 25.3 1982 1987
13 Frank Robinson 25.2 1957 1962
14 Cesar Cedeno 24.9 1972 1977
   11. DCA Posted: November 06, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5899177)
Looking at age 27-36 for the 13 non-Betts guys, the average is 52.3 WAR, 33.4 WAA.

Three are much better (Mays, Bonds, Aaron)

Four are much worse (Cedeno, Andruw, Griffey, Bench)

The other six are quite close to that average.
   12. pikepredator Posted: November 06, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5899180)
It's possible Mookie will end up overpaid

Given his track record (WAR from 2015-2019: 6, 10, 6, 11, 7), what does overpaid even look like? My sense is that players in this stratosphere invariably end up underpaid.


Agreed . . . I am just allowing for the reality that there's no 100% guarantee that a superstar remains a superstar. He's as sure of a bet as there is. Odds are that the $35M/year or whatever is more than worth it.
   13. RJ in TO Posted: November 06, 2019 at 03:06 PM (#5899189)
Four are much worse (Cedeno, Andruw, Griffey, Bench)


Cedeno - 12.8 WAR, 1.2 WAA
Andruw - 20.3 WAR, 7.4 WAA
Griffey - 32.9 WAR, 17.0 WAA
Bench - 31.8 WAR, 18.4 WAA

They are all notably worse than the average, but even if Betts "only" performed as well as Griffey or Bench, whatever mega-contract he gets would be disappointing but not a disaster. It's only performance like Andruw or Cedeno that would inspire the "My god, what have I done?" reactions.
   14. Rally Posted: November 06, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5899193)
Just out of curiosity, since Trout is not on that list (he's too good for it):

More than 36 WAA ages 21-26.

Mantle
Trout

Pre-integration we also add:

Hornsby
Cobb

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