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Monday, January 20, 2020

J.D. Martinez says Red Sox are innocent. Now what?

SPRINGFIELD—The next shoe may not have officially dropped Saturday, but a toe was dipped into the water. For the first time, a member of the 2018 Red Sox flat-out said his team was innocent.

Up until J.D. Martinez stepped before the media at Winter Weekend there had been a series of coaches and players leaning on “it’s an ongoing investigation” when asked about Major League Baseball’s investigation into The Athletic’s report that the Red Sox had illegally used their video system to help relay sign sequences during games. But Martinez took things to another level.

“I’m excited for the investigation to get over with, just so they can see there was nothing going on here,” Martinez said.

When pressed on if he believed no wrongdoing would be found in the investigation he added, “I believe that, yes.”

This isn’t his way to get Red Sox management to keep him and dump Mookie, is it?

 

QLE Posted: January 20, 2020 at 12:44 AM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bullshit, dirty rotten cheaters, j.d. martinez, red sox

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: January 20, 2020 at 11:25 AM (#5917546)
Good enough for me. Case closed.
   2. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 20, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5917550)
If I were a player on any team, but especially one under current investigation, I wouldn’t be making statements like this right now.

Having said that Martinez hasn’t made really dumb statements in his couple of years in Boston. I hope that he is saying this because he knows it to be true. I mean OJ declared himself “100% not guilty” and he was acquitted so obviously the Sox are clean.
   3. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 20, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5917572)
So, if Martinez repeats his statements to the investigators, and he’s not telling the truth, what would his discipline be? We don’t really know what, if anything MLB has on the Red Sox. There’s no public whistleblower like Mike Fiers, at least yet, and nothing as blatant as the trash can banging that even amateur Internet investigators could find, as far as is now known. But MLB might have more than we know, or be able to find it, so stonewalling might be pretty risky, since players wouldn’t have immunity for lying to the MLB investigators.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 20, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5917597)
If the Red Sox went the "high tech" route and didn't have a monitor in the f'ing hallway, it's possible (I said possible) that some players knew and some didn't. You'd still think that all players would be offered but again it's possible not. So it's possible (even less plausible) that JDM is mainly talking about what he did and misplacing faith in his teammates. And then there's the possibility (no really!) the Red Sox weren't cheating.

But if there's one thing we learned from the PED scandal it's not to shake your finger at Congress.
   5. Zonk Hasn't Learned his Aspirational Lesson Posted: January 20, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5917613)
The world appears to be collapsing into some sort of singularity...
   6. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 20, 2020 at 05:14 PM (#5917652)
This isn’t his way to get Red Sox management to keep him and dump Mookie, is it?
Speaking of dumping Mookie - what the Red Sox reportedly want in a Betts trade:
Per Olney, any deal for Betts must include David Price, with the acquiring team taking on most or all of the $96 million still owed to the left-hander over the next three seasons. And that's not all. The Red Sox also are asking for two high-end prospects.
Price’s injury history makes his future performance somewhat uncertain, and other teams may also now consider Betts something of a question mark. Without his 2018 MVP year, Betts would still be a very good player, but it’s 2018 that puts him in the best non-Mike Trout player conversation, and that’s now subject to being discounted because Mookie may have known the pitches coming. Don’t see any trade likely unless Price & Mookie re-establish their value while the Red Sox fall out of 2020 contention.
   7. Zonk Hasn't Learned his Aspirational Lesson Posted: January 20, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5917659)
Seems like it’s a good time to insist on unfathomable and find out whether a brain dead rube will buy what you’re insisting on selling....
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 20, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5917667)
Well there's no trade coming if that at all resembles the asking price. The team getting Betts gets him for just one year at a cost of $27. Now there's arguably a solid $20-25 M of excess value in 1 year of Mookie for $27 but that then means you need to expect to get at least $71 M of value out of Price over 3 years. Even if you believe that, how much talent are you willing to give up when all the trade gets you is the right to pay $123 M for $123 M of value? Now if the Sox want to eat $20-30 M of Price's salary then they can get $20-30 M of prospects if they can find a team that thinks Price will put up 7-9 WAR over the next three years.

FWIW, Steamer projects Betts at 6.6 WAR and Price at 2.6 (in 164 IP). If Price ages reasonably well, that would project out to about 13-14 WAR total for the receiving team which is about the market value for $123 M. Maybe you send a nice gift basket to the Red Sox for selling you their house at market value but that's about it.

Mookie is the best non-Trout player even if you discount 2018. (Lindor and maybe Bregman come close.) He is however not the best non-Trout hitter and so any long-term interest has to decide how long he will continue to add 15-20 runs a year with his legs and glove because the bat is probably not going to improve much at this point (but you never know).

WAR 2017-19

25 Trout
24 Mookie
18-19 Bregman, Judge, Yelich, Chapman, Arenado, Lindor, J Ramirez

so you have to dock Mookie 5 WAR to get him back to the "pack." Deducting 5 WAR from 2018 would make it tied for the worst full season of his career.

But by WARbat he drops to 6th (JDM #2) but still ahead of Rendon, Bellinger and Arenado and well ahead of Ramirez, Chapman, Lindor.

Bregman and Lindor are just a year younger but Bellinger is 3 years younger. If Bellinger can repeat 2019 with the bat then he might move into the #2 spot in terms of "who do you want over the next 5 years" (although maybe that should be Acuna or Soto). In terms of availability, sounds like you can have Arenado's contract right now if you want or you can wait a year to offer Mookie a bejillion or two years to offer Lindor a bejillion (or acquire and extend him) or three years for Yelich and Judge.
   9. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 20, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5917681)
Without his 2018 MVP year, Betts would still be a very good player, but it’s 2018 that puts him in the best non-Mike Trout player conversation,


Well except for 2016, which was a 9.7 bWAR season. You might want to consider a nearly 10 WAR season as something better then very good. It's the fact that he's essentially put up (2)10 WAR seasons that makes him the best non-Mike Trout player. And of course 2016 was pre-Cora, so Mookie is, you know, better then very good.

And Walt covered it more comprehensively then I did, as usual.
   10. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:01 PM (#5917685)
So, if Martinez repeats his statements to the investigators, and he’s not telling the truthwhat would his discipline be


Probably nothing, unless he lies about something specific, and they can prove that he lied about something specific.
   11. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5917686)
Countering the Yankee Spinner with arguments and facts, is about as futile as pissing into a tornado. The tornado cares not. It keeps on spinning regardless.
   12. flournoy Posted: January 20, 2020 at 08:13 PM (#5917689)
So, if Martinez repeats his statements to the investigators, and he’s not telling the truth, what would his discipline be?


Is Martinez (or any player) obligated to cooperate with MLB's investigators? If so, why?
   13. Walt Davis Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:51 PM (#5917703)
It keeps on spinning regardless.

Sure, but others reading might "enjoy" some discussion and I hope it never hurts to warn any innocent bystanders that there's a tornado a-spinning.

Plus that particular statement is not absurd on its surface. Offensively 2018 blows any other Mookie season out of the water so it's reasonable to ask to what extent the "all but Trout" designation is overly influenced by that.
   14. Fancy Crazy Handle on Altuve's Buzzer Posted: January 20, 2020 at 10:57 PM (#5917705)
I hope it never hurts to warn any innocent bystanders that there's a tornado a-spinning

Hence why I pointed it out.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 20, 2020 at 11:59 PM (#5917709)
Some seem rather thin-skinned about any perceived slight to Saint Mookie, but the Red Sox are overvaluing him and Price, while ignoring any downside. The Red Sox stance, as reported by Olney, is too costly, too uncertain, and too much in the way of prospects. Mookie’s best season coming when he may have known the pitches coming is a part of that, although certainly not the biggest part. Other teams teams clearly aren’t valuing Betts as Boston does, or there would have been a deal, no?

   16. Nasty Nate Posted: January 21, 2020 at 08:36 AM (#5917726)
This is great. If the Sox trade Mookie, they are cheapskate monsters spitting in their fans eyes by trading a homegrown once-in-a-lifetime talent. But if they keep him, he is a fraud propped up by cheating and the team and its fans are also overrating their own players.
   17. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 21, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5917731)
It’s almost like the Sox aren’t really that concerned about getting under the luxury tax number this year.
   18. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 21, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5917745)

so you have to dock Mookie 5 WAR to get him back to the "pack." Deducting 5 WAR from 2018 would make it tied for the worst full season of his career.


If you dock him 2 WAR because you think his 2018 offense was a fluke, and another 3 WAR over 3 years because you don't believe the Fenway defensive numbers, then he's in line with the other guys in the second-best category. Then again, you could make similar deductions from most of those other guys too, so yeah I think you still have to consider Mookie #2.
   19. jmurph Posted: January 21, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5917760)
Clapper man you've got to reevaluate how you spend your leisure time. How is this fun for you?
   20. Howie Menckel Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5917773)
as good a spot as any

Pete Abraham
@PeteAbe
·
45m
Breaking news: #RedSox 2B Dustin Pedroia has suffered what sources say was a significant setback with his left knee.

His availability for at least spring training is questionable. Pedroia is discussing his options with his family, agents, and the Sox.
   21. Nasty Nate Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5917774)
While completely expected, that is still sad.
   22. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:50 AM (#5917788)
Breaking news: #RedSox 2B Dustin Pedroia has suffered what sources say was a significant setback with his left knee.

His availability for at least spring training is questionable. Pedroia is discussing his options with his family, agents, and the Sox.


Guess I thought it was already understood that he wouldn't be playing? Jeez, didn't even realize he was on the 40-man roster, figured he'd still be on the IL. So yeah, like Nate said, that is not an unexpected bit of news. Anyone sign Marco Hernandez?
   23. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 21, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5917796)
I believe Marco cleared waivers and is on the Pawtucket roster.

The guy that I think the Sox should be chatting with is Moreland. Put him at first, let Chavis have the 2B role and give Dalbec time to develop at first. If Chavis continues the struggles he was having last year and doesn't pan out then turn to Marco.
   24. base ball chick Posted: January 21, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5917837)
the sox are muey loco if they really think that some team is gonna take ALL of mookies AND david prices contracts AND send them 2 high prospects TOO
   25. villageidiom Posted: January 21, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5917874)
the sox are muey loco if they really think that some team is gonna take ALL of mookies AND david prices contracts AND send them 2 high prospects TOO
They are not behaving like a motivated trade partner at all. That's what most of us have been saying to the people who are still quoting John Henry from months ago.
   26. Zonk Hasn't Learned his Aspirational Lesson Posted: January 21, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5917989)
the sox are muey loco if they really think that some team is gonna take ALL of mookies AND david prices contracts AND send them 2 high prospects TOO


Probably... but to be fair - I think that's more because none of the premium contenders (who can afford both, at least, which severely limits the trade partners) have a gaping lineup hole or huge OF need.

Anyway, the big problem with Mookie is that you just get a year of him + the right to try to work out a 300m extension with him before anyone else.

FWIW - and everybody should heed my OOTP dynasty - it was, ironically, the Astros who ponied up for Betts after 2020. 10/300. I'm now in 2026. Betts won the AL MVP his first year and has posted 31 WAR thus far; although, 10.5 of that was in the first year of the deal. Beyond this season - he got hurt - he's been a consistent 5-6 WAR player.
   27. Darren Posted: January 21, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5918054)
THE RED SOX ARE CRAZY IF THEY TRADE MOOKIE, HE'S SO INCREDIBLY VALUABLE TO THEM!!!

(Red Sox demand a ton in return for Betts.)

WHAT??? THE RED SOX ARE CRAZY TO ASK SO MUCH FOR BETTS!!!
   28. jmurph Posted: January 22, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5918167)
Darren that isn't actually a contradiction. People have pointed out from the very beginning of these discussions that Boston would be unlikely to get fair value in return for Betts because the acquiring team would only be getting one year of him. I'm pretty sure snapper made this point early on, I know I agreed with it in previous threads, etc. Both things are correct.
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:27 AM (#5918213)
People have pointed out from the very beginning of these discussions that Boston would be unlikely to get fair value in return for Betts because the acquiring team would only be getting one year of him. I'm pretty sure snapper made this point early on, I know I agreed with it in previous threads, etc.
The contradiction is mocking the Sox for apparently agreeing with that point.
   30. jmurph Posted: January 22, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5918220)
Well I think VI has it right in 25. Sure, Betts is available, but you have to give us a crazy return and take on Price's salary. That approach makes sense if they don't actually want to trade Betts.
   31. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: January 22, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5918238)
But they WOULD trade Betts if the right deal was accepted, and that seems to bother a bunch of fans.

I don't know that any player is worth 30+ million a year, when there's a cap, when they're in their mid to late 30's. History has shown that teams are put at a disadvantage with albatross contracts.

They have to figure out a way to pay players in their 20's what they're worth, rather than the backwards system currently in place.


   32. pikepredator Posted: January 22, 2020 at 12:32 PM (#5918302)
FWIW, Steamer projects Betts at 6.6 WAR and Price at 2.6 (in 164 IP). If Price ages reasonably well, that would project out to about 13-14 WAR total


Hitters and pitchers definitely fall off cliffs . . . but there is that subset of pitchers who return to prominence. I feel like that chance is discounted for Price - not without good reason. But that chance for 12 WAR over the next few years is legit.
   33. Karl from NY Posted: January 22, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5918407)
I don't know that any player is worth 30+ million a year ... History has shown that teams are put at a disadvantage with albatross contracts.

This is the Winner's Curse in an auction situation. The team that made the biggest offer is the team that most badly overestimated the expected value.
   34. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: January 22, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5918418)
The team that made the biggest offer is the team that most badly overestimated the expected value.


The current system forces teams to pay beyond player's worth in their sunset years, because teams get away with paying the same players on the cheap during their most productive years (often times).

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