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Friday, April 07, 2023

Jeffrey Springs didn’t believe he could change. The Rays showed him the way

By this past offseason, he had already gained Springs’ trust. When Springs first arrived in Tampa, his confidence was shaken. He’d posted a 7.08 ERA with Boston in 2020. He believed the numbers showed he’d struggled.

The Rays and Snyder gave him a different message: He’d been unlucky.

He was the seventh-most unlucky pitcher in 2020 if subtracting actual ERA from xFIP, the calculation that only measures outcomes the pitcher controls: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Many outcomes on balls in play have a defensive component the pitcher doesn’t control: errors, great plays, and alignments. Springs’ xFIP was only 3.70, almost half his ERA. Additionally, Springs’ strike rate (called plus swinging) was 33%, well above average (28%).

Spring arrived believing his breaking ball was poor, and batters had performed well against his skinny-breaking slider. The Rays had other ideas.

“When I came over in 2021, it was, ‘Throw your slider more,’” Springs said. He recalled Snyder saying: “‘It’s better than you think.’

“Snyder helped turn my career around.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 07, 2023 at 11:17 AM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jeffrey springs, rays

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   1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: April 07, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6123009)
Highly recommend reading TFA. Wow. Super interesting, and makes me appreciate the Rays even more. What a cool, progressive organization.

Good for them, and good for Springs.
   2. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: April 07, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6123014)
i dislike springs, but the work he and tampa did here is to be commended. rays are pretty pretty good at what they do.
   3. Boxkutter Posted: April 07, 2023 at 01:45 PM (#6123018)
That was a great read.

I remember watching Snyder pitch in KC. Loved his fall off the table curve. Followed him since. I have Springs on my dynasty team, signed him to be a reliever a few years ago when Tampa signed him, because everything they touched turned to gold. Never expected him to become a starter, but am quite happy he has.
   4. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: April 07, 2023 at 02:05 PM (#6123022)
As a Red Sox fan who saw Springs pitch a few times in 2020, I'd be lying if I said I thought I was watching an unlucky pitcher. At the time, he seemed like just another pretty anonymous, below-average pitcher getting thrown out there by the worst Red Sox team since at least 1994.

That was also Chaim Bloom's first year with Boston, after being seen as a wunderkind from Tampa's organization. The expectation most of us had was that he'd be bringing the magic touch from Tampa - acquiring guys like Springs, rather than trading them away.

When Springs was traded to Tampa (along with Chris Mazza) for catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez (#56 in BA's prospect rankings as recently as the beginning of the 2019 season), it was assumed that Bloom knew something about Hernandez that made this a sneaky-good trade for Boston. Tampa had a 40-man crunch, a backlog of catchers on the team and in the system, etc., and this was going to be classic Bloom!

Well, that clearly didn't happen. Springs is a valuable pitcher, and Hernandez couldn't even make the team this spring despite a real opening to be the backup catcher (non-hitter Connor Wong is the backup, instead).

I'm not saying every trade like this has to work to be considered a success (I mean, Chris Mazza didn't do anything in Tampa, either). But Boston fans are about ready to pay for Bloom's airfare out of town if this season doesn't produce either big league wins and/or minor league development results. (I'll give him the Garrett Whitlock Rule V acquisition; I'm not sure he gets a whole lot of "Tampa pixie dust" credit outside of that.)

Tampa is really, really good at what they do.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: April 07, 2023 at 04:02 PM (#6123041)
The new pitch helped Springs complete 14 shutout innings this spring, during which he allowed just five hits and two walks while striking out 24. Preseason stats must be met with skepticism,...

true ...

but in his first regular-season start Sunday against the Detroit Tigers

ummm ...

He makes his second start Saturday at Oakland.

ummm ... :-)
   6. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: April 09, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6123224)
The Rays showed him the way

Every day?
   7. Rally Posted: April 09, 2023 at 05:21 PM (#6123244)
This is the way
   8. JJ1986 Posted: April 09, 2023 at 07:36 PM (#6123265)
But can he change from being a hateful ass?
   9. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: April 10, 2023 at 08:56 AM (#6123289)
can he? sure. will he?
   10. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:37 AM (#6123318)
That was also Chaim Bloom's first year with Boston, after being seen as a wunderkind from Tampa's organization. The expectation most of us had was that he'd be bringing the magic touch from Tampa - acquiring guys like Springs, rather than trading them away.


He did acquire Springs! For the low cost of Sam Travis--what a coup!

Joking aside, in the larger picture, yes, Bloom really needs some Jeffrey-Springs-like successes. It was the expectation when he was hired and, given the way that they are running the team, it's a necessity.

On this specific deal, it's hard to even count this deal against Bloom. Springs was DFA'ed in late 2019, then resigned with Texas, and was traded to Boston for Travis. Hernandez does seem to be buried in the minors, as he seems to be 3rd on the depth chart at AA behind Alfaro (fine) and Caleb Hamilton (now there's a non-hitter). Not sure why you think Wong is a 'non-hitter.' He's a career .276/.337/.496 and hit .288/.349/.489 at AAA, good for a 121 wRC+. ZIPS projects him to hit .258/.304/.435/105 wRC+ this year. That all seems good for a catcher.

As you note, Tampa Bay is really good at what they do.




   11. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:40 AM (#6123320)
The Rays and Snyder gave him a different message: He’d been unlucky.

He was the seventh-most unlucky pitcher in 2020 if subtracting actual ERA from xFIP, the calculation that only measures outcomes the pitcher controls: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Many outcomes on balls in play have a defensive component the pitcher doesn’t control: errors, great plays, and alignments. Springs’ xFIP was only 3.70, almost half his ERA. Additionally, Springs’ strike rate (called plus swinging) was 33%, well above average (28%).


Again, the Rays are great at what they do, but this seems like info that every MLB team has and would share with its pitchers.
   12. Darren Posted: April 10, 2023 at 11:45 AM (#6123323)
Spring arrived believing his breaking ball was poor, and batters had performed well against his skinny-breaking slider. The Rays had other ideas.

"When I came over in 2021, it was, 'Throw your slider more,'" Springs said. He recalled Snyder saying: "'It's better than you think.'

"Snyder helped turn my career around."


This is something I have wondered about the pitch value stats. They seem to granular without context. A fastball that tends to get hit pretty well is pretty valuable if it sets up a change-up that gets a lot of swings and misses.

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