BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Jered Weaver’s velocity takes a dip in Angels’ 6-5 loss to Arizona

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Thursday, March 12, 2015

Jered Weaver’s velocity takes a dip in Angels’ 6-5 loss to Arizona - LA Times

Jered Weaver’s fastball averaged 86.8 mph last season, when he went 18-9 with a 3.28 earned-run average, but even by his standards, his velocity is down this spring. The right-hander ranged from 82-84 mph and hit 85 mph twice in a three-inning, two-run, five-hit effort. “How many velocity questions are we going to have?” Weaver said in response to his first velocity question of the spring. “I don’t pay attention to velocity. It’s more about getting location down and being able to get on pitches when you need to.” Manager Mike Scioscia said he thinks Weaver’s velocity will increase when he irons out his mechanics. “He has a lot of moving parts and was a little out of sync, really fighting himself,” Scioscia said. “We know Weav is gonna be there.”

jimfurtado Posted: March 12, 2015 at 06:19 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: angels, jered weaver

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1. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: March 12, 2015 at 10:21 AM (#4910844)

I was worried about this two years ago, but now, less so.

He just keeps getting guys out. And the home park suppresses HR's, so he's pretty good at home but has more trouble in certain parks on the road.

2. Davo Posted: March 12, 2015 at 10:24 AM (#4910847)

He's out-pitched his peripherals by pretty dramatic margins over the last four years(. Whether that's masking his decline or a product of some intentional strategy (to make up for his declining velocity) is not for me to say, but it's something to be aware of. (My Fantasy League uses FIP stats--he's barely replacement level in our league!)

* 2.99 ERA since 2011, but with a 3.72 FIP--the difference between Stephen Strasburg or Mike Leake.

3. Itchy Row Posted: March 12, 2015 at 10:26 AM (#4910849)

Weaver's 3.59 ERA last year was only a 101 ERA+. I miss steroids.

4. Danny Posted: March 12, 2015 at 10:54 AM (#4910867)

Weaver's average (fourseam) fastball velocity increased every month last year, from 86.5 in April to 88.1 in September.

5. Shibal Posted: March 12, 2015 at 11:42 AM (#4910892)

The new Frank Tanana.

Maybe Paul Byrd.

6. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: March 12, 2015 at 12:23 PM (#4910912)

I'm worried about him. His ERA+ has dropped significantly each of the last three years, and his walk rate took a big jump last year after being steady for the last five seasons. I think he knows he doesn't have the stuff any more and is working off the edges.

Weaver loves pitching at home where his long arm and the angle of his delivery allow his pitch to come out of the rock pile in center field instead of the green batter's eye. He's not very good on the road.

If Shoemaker and Richards (once he's healthy) can pitch similarly to last year, the Angels just need Weaver and Wilson to be around average to have a good rotation. And they have pitching depth for the first time in what feels like forever.

7. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: March 12, 2015 at 12:44 PM (#4910925)

I'm worried about him. His ERA+ has dropped significantly each of the last three years, and his walk rate took a big jump last year after being steady for the last five seasons. I think he knows he doesn't have the stuff any more and is working off the edges.

Actually, I hadn't noticed the ERA+ for 2014. So, yeah, his decline seems to be going strong.

But, a 101 ERA+ isn't awfu and with that offense it can yield pretty decent results.

8. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: March 12, 2015 at 01:27 PM (#4910954)

But, a 101 ERA+ isn't awfu and with that offense it can yield pretty decent results.

It can. It's the trend that alarms me. If he can maintain a 100 - 110 ERA+ for the next two years, I'm fine with that. Once you get to the 85 - 95 range, I think it becomes an issue that the offense can't consistently overcome.

9. dr. scott Posted: March 12, 2015 at 02:58 PM (#4910997)

Once you get to the 85 - 95 range, I think it becomes an issue that the offense can't consistently overcome.

See Zito, Barry.

10. bbmck Posted: March 12, 2015 at 03:30 PM (#4911012)

20 of the best starting pitchers with 500+ IP in last 5 years. Darvish and Iwakuma first pitched in MLB in 2012, other 18 pitched in 2010:

Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+  WHIP   SO9 SO/W     IP   Age   G  GS  FIP
1      Clayton Kershaw  163   60 0.989  9.49 4.13 1099.2 22-26 158 158 2.54
2           Chris Sale  150   69 1.067  9.83 4.26  674.2 21-25 165  85 3.03
3         Johnny Cueto  143   78 1.111  7.35 3.00  863.0 24-28 133 133 3.50
4      Felix Hernandez  136   75 1.091  8.89 4.00 1155.2 24-28 165 165 2.84
5            Cliff Lee  133   79 1.067  8.66 7.00  960.0 31-35 134 134 2.80
6      Adam Wainwright  131   77 1.094  7.97 4.12  897.2 28-32 131 131 2.83
7          Cole Hamels  129   83 1.119  8.63 3.84 1064.2 26-30 159 158 3.27
8     Justin Verlander  128   75 1.159  8.57 3.30 1138.0 27-31 166 166 3.17
9    Stephen Strasburg  128   75 1.089 10.34 4.49  649.1 21-25 109 109 2.84
10          Yu Darvish  127   76 1.196 11.22 3.12  545.1 25-27  83  83 3.17
11        Jered Weaver  127   79 1.087  7.61 3.34 1016.1 27-31 155 155 3.57
12   Jordan Zimmermann  125   85 1.125  7.27 4.23  801.0 24-28 129 129 3.28
13         David Price  124   80 1.120  8.62 3.88 1079.0 24-28 158 157 3.11
14         Doug Fister  122   86 1.185  6.18 3.64  921.2 26-30 144 142 3.42
15     Hisashi Iwakuma  120   87 1.086  7.56 4.15  524.0 31-33  91  77 3.59
16        Max Scherzer  118   86 1.197  9.60 3.54 1013.0 25-29 161 161 3.32
17           Mat Latos  115   84 1.161  8.19 3.15  901.1 22-26 143 143 3.33
18         R.A. Dickey  115   92 1.184  6.96 2.77 1057.0 35-39 162 159 3.92
19   Madison Bumgarner  115   90 1.135  8.46 3.92  942.2 20-24 147 147 3.14
20           Matt Cain  110   86 1.103  7.45 2.97  939.0 25-29 143 143 3.56 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Last 4 years for those guys:

Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+  WHIP   SO9 SO/W    IP   Age   G  GS  FIP
1      Clayton Kershaw  172   57 0.946  9.53 4.74 895.1 23-26 126 126 2.41
2         Johnny Cueto  155   72 1.066  7.53 3.17 677.1 25-28 102 102 3.37
3           Chris Sale  148   70 1.067  9.74 4.33 651.1 22-25 144  85 3.04
4            Cliff Lee  133   83 1.085  8.90 6.48 747.2 32-35 106 106 2.86
5          Doug Fister  129   84 1.163  6.47 3.80 750.2 27-30 116 114 3.37
6     Justin Verlander  129   76 1.158  8.52 3.37 913.2 28-31 133 133 3.22
7          Cole Hamels  128   82 1.104  8.52 3.95 856.0 27-30 126 125 3.17
8    Jordan Zimmermann  128   84 1.117  7.25 4.34 770.0 25-28 122 122 3.18
9      Felix Hernandez  127   78 1.100  9.03 4.23 906.0 25-28 131 131 2.79
10          Yu Darvish  127   76 1.196 11.22 3.12 545.1 25-27  83  83 3.17
11   Stephen Strasburg  126   76 1.091 10.13 4.39 581.1 22-25  97  97 2.93
12        Jered Weaver  125   81 1.091  7.11 3.08 792.0 28-31 121 121 3.72
13     Adam Wainwright  123   80 1.109  7.85 4.25 667.1 30-32  98  98 2.83
14         David Price  120   80 1.103  8.74 4.52 870.1 25-28 126 126 3.04
15     Hisashi Iwakuma  120   87 1.086  7.56 4.15 524.0 31-33  91  77 3.59
16        Max Scherzer  117   86 1.186  9.88 3.82 817.1 26-29 130 130 3.22
17           Mat Latos  113   87 1.180  7.92 3.00 716.2 23-26 112 112 3.42
18   Madison Bumgarner  113   87 1.112  8.66 4.00 831.2 21-24 129 129 3.07
19         R.A. Dickey  111   93 1.184  7.28 2.82 882.2 36-39 135 133 3.98
20           Matt Cain  105   88 1.109  7.55 2.99 715.2 26-29 110 110 3.54 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Last 3 years:

Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+  WHIP   SO9 SO/W   Age   G  GS    IP  FIP
1      Clayton Kershaw  176   57 0.935  9.52 4.79 24-26  93  93 662.0 2.39
2         Johnny Cueto  151   74 1.059  7.99 3.51 26-28  78  78 521.1 3.35
3           Chris Sale  148   71 1.061  9.71 4.60 23-25  86  85 580.1 3.03
4      Felix Hernandez  136   73 1.059  9.20 4.64 26-28  98  98 672.1 2.67
5    Jordan Zimmermann  130   83 1.109  7.33 4.43 26-28  96  96 608.2 3.18
6         Max Scherzer  127   78 1.134 10.46 4.04 27-29  97  97 622.1 2.94
7           Yu Darvish  127   76 1.196 11.22 3.12 25-27  83  83 545.1 3.17
8          Doug Fister  126   87 1.203  6.64 3.75 28-30  84  83 534.1 3.51
9          Cole Hamels  126   88 1.144  8.66 3.83 28-30  94  94 640.0 3.21
10         David Price  125   79 1.091  8.74 5.06 26-28  92  92 646.0 2.94
11           Cliff Lee  124   89 1.111  8.76 6.96 33-35  74  74 515.0 2.97
12   Stephen Strasburg  124   79 1.107 10.17 4.29 23-25  92  92 557.1 3.00
13     Adam Wainwright  123   80 1.109  7.85 4.25 30-32  98  98 667.1 2.83
14     Hisashi Iwakuma  120   87 1.086  7.56 4.15 31-33  91  77 524.0 3.59
15    Justin Verlander  118   85 1.248  8.35 3.08 29-31  99  99 662.2 3.30
16           Mat Latos  117   87 1.179  7.68 3.01 24-26  81  81 522.1 3.51
17        Jered Weaver  115   86 1.125  6.92 2.91 29-31  88  88 556.1 3.94
18   Madison Bumgarner  115   85 1.080  8.74 3.95 22-24  96  96 627.0 3.20
19         R.A. Dickey  111   92 1.171  7.74 2.91 37-39 102 101 674.0 4.04
20           Matt Cain  100   94 1.121  7.67 3.05 27-29  77  77 494.0 3.81 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Last 2 years:

Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+  WHIP   SO9 SO/W   Age  G GS    IP  FIP
1      Clayton Kershaw  196   51 0.889  9.76 5.67 25-26 60 60 434.1 2.12
2         Johnny Cueto  154   67 0.979  8.66 3.53 27-28 45 45 304.1 3.40
3           Chris Sale  152   68 1.025 10.06 5.11 24-25 56 56 388.1 2.91
4      Felix Hernandez  143   70 1.015  9.48 5.04 27-28 65 65 440.1 2.58
5      Adam Wainwright  139   73 1.050  7.64 4.68 31-32 66 66 468.2 2.71
6           Yu Darvish  137   77 1.150 11.67 3.56 26-27 54 54 354.0 3.10
7         Max Scherzer  135   71 1.074 10.19 4.13 28-29 65 65 434.2 2.79
8          Doug Fister  128   89 1.208  6.21 3.78 29-30 58 57 372.2 3.55
9    Jordan Zimmermann  127   80 1.080  7.47 4.97 27-28 64 64 413.0 3.03
10   Stephen Strasburg  122   78 1.088  9.79 4.37 24-25 64 64 398.0 3.07
11         Cole Hamels  122   91 1.154  8.48 3.67 29-30 63 63 424.2 3.17
12           Cliff Lee  121   89 1.109  8.70 6.68 34-35 44 44 304.0 2.86
13   Madison Bumgarner  120   80 1.063  8.99 3.98 23-24 64 64 418.2 3.05
14     Hisashi Iwakuma  120   81 1.026  7.65 5.38 32-33 61 61 398.2 3.36
15           Mat Latos  117   88 1.192  7.50 3.11 25-26 48 48 313.0 3.28
16         David Price  116   83 1.087  8.73 6.49 27-28 61 61 435.0 2.88
17        Jered Weaver  107   93 1.180  7.00 2.80 30-31 58 58 367.2 4.04
18    Justin Verlander  102   98 1.355  7.97 2.69 30-31 66 66 424.1 3.50
19         R.A. Dickey  101   98 1.233  7.15 2.41 38-39 68 68 440.1 4.45
20           Matt Cain   85  102 1.187  7.47 2.62 28-29 45 45 274.2 4.15 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Last year:

Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+  WHIP   SO9 SO/W   Age  G GS    IP  FIP
1      Clayton Kershaw  197   52 0.857 10.85 7.71 26-26 27 27 198.1 1.81
2           Chris Sale  178   61 0.966 10.76 5.33 25-25 26 26 174.0 2.57
3      Felix Hernandez  170   58 0.915  9.46 5.39 28-28 34 34 236.0 2.56
4         Johnny Cueto  160   66 0.960  8.94 3.72 28-28 34 34 243.2 3.30
5          Doug Fister  155   84 1.079  5.38 4.08 30-30 25 25 164.0 3.93
6      Adam Wainwright  154   66 1.031  7.10 3.58 32-32 32 32 227.0 2.88
7          Cole Hamels  151   84 1.148  8.71 3.36 30-30 30 30 204.2 3.07
8    Jordan Zimmermann  141   78 1.072  8.20 6.28 28-28 32 32 199.2 2.68
9           Yu Darvish  127   91 1.261 11.35 3.71 27-27 22 22 144.1 2.84
10        Max Scherzer  127   83 1.175 10.29 4.00 29-29 33 33 220.1 2.85
11   Stephen Strasburg  119   88 1.121 10.13 5.63 25-25 34 34 215.0 2.94
12   Madison Bumgarner  117   91 1.090  9.07 5.09 24-24 33 33 217.1 3.05
13         David Price  117   82 1.079  9.82 7.13 28-28 34 34 248.1 2.78
14           Mat Latos  111   87 1.153  6.51 2.85 26-26 16 16 102.1 3.65
15         R.A. Dickey  105   97 1.229  7.22 2.34 39-39 34 34 215.2 4.32
16     Hisashi Iwakuma  103   85 1.050  7.74 7.33 33-33 28 28 179.0 3.25
17           Cliff Lee  102  117 1.377  7.97 6.00 35-35 13 13  81.1 2.96
18        Jered Weaver  101   96 1.209  7.13 2.60 31-31 34 34 213.1 4.19
19    Justin Verlander   88  109 1.398  6.95 2.45 31-31 32 32 206.0 3.74
20           Matt Cain   84  112 1.251  6.97 2.19 29-29 15 15  90.1 4.58 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Not looking good for Jered and Scherzer has a great agent.

11. Walt Davis Posted: March 12, 2015 at 05:17 PM (#4911072)

Ages ago, somebody reasonably famous in saber circles suggested Weaver could be almost Felix-like and somebody reasonably famous in saber circles lambasted him. (I think I remember who they were but am not certain.)

It's entertained me how close Weaver's results have remained despite inferior peripherals. Even here you still see it in those first two tables:

5 years:

Felix 136 ERA+, 75 OPS+, 1.091 WHIP
Jered 127 ERA+, 78 OPS+, 1.087 WHIP

4 years:

Felix 127, 78, 1.100
Jered 126, 81, 1.091

There's a very big gap over the last 3 years. (Felix also had more IP over the last 4 and 5 years.)

Felix 2006-11: 127 ERA+, 1304 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 26 bWAR, 14 bWAA
Jered 2006-11: 128 ERA+, 1132 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 26 bWAR, 15 bWAA

Strange that Weaver would have the small WAR edge in nearly one full season less pitching.

In the last three years, Felix has added about 17 WAR and 11 WAA while Weaver has added "just" 11 WAR and 5.5 WAA.

Things might be coming towards the end for him although hopefully he'll find a way to have Tim Hudson's 30s. But Weaver's really been under-rated by the saber set (or so is my impression) for some time now. Even if it all ends now, it was a heck of a ride with 36 WAR and 20 WAA in about 1700 IP. And somewhat surprisingly, fWAR (32) and bWAR are relatively close.

12. GGIAS (aka Poster Nutbag) Posted: March 12, 2015 at 05:50 PM (#4911086)

Sorta off topic, but man those tables seem to me to show how underrated Doug Fister is. You do not hear him mentioned as much as guys like Kershaw, Wainwright, Bumgarner, Felix, Price, etc. Is it solely because of the low K rates? He certainly appears to be getting the results you want, even if he isn't striking as many guys out.

13. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 12, 2015 at 07:10 PM (#4911121)

Walt's being coy, but that's another Dave Cameron special:

He's the exact same guy he's always been, just with varying degrees of luck - he's never been a frontline starter, and he never will be.

From this BBTF thread during their argument.

14. bbmck Posted: March 12, 2015 at 11:05 PM (#4911204)

Smoltz to Weaver comparison makes a lot of sense, just should be Age 23-31 not Weaver to 42 year old Smoltz, Greinke does have one year to possibly separate himself from this crew:

Rk             Player  WAR WAA/pitch ERA+ OPS+  WHIP From   To   Age   G  GS GF     IP  FIP              Tm
1        Jered Weaver 36.4      20.5  124   82 1.152 2006 2014 23-31 265 265  0 1688.0 3.74             LAA
2    Andy Messersmith 36.4      18.7  124   76 1.135 1969 1977 23-31 299 274 20 2064.1 3.21     CAL-LAD-ATL
3         John Smoltz 35.4      20.2  122   76 1.186 1990 1998 23-31 286 286  0 1956.0 3.27             ATL
4          David Cone 35.2      20.6  123   80 1.195 1986 1994 23-31 258 229  9 1692.2 3.21     KCR-NYM-TOR
5        Zack Greinke 34.6      20.9  125   85 1.188 2007 2014 23-30 272 234  7 1537.2 3.12 KCR-MIL-LAA-LAD
6          Luis Tiant 33.5      19.8  120   86 1.162 1964 1972 23-31 293 206 50 1544.0 3.29     CLE-MIN-BOS
7          Jake Peavy 31.2      18.6  122   80 1.147 2004 2012 23-31 234 233  0 1508.0 3.31         SDP-CHW
8      Curt Schilling 30.3      18.9  124   76 1.135 1990 1998 23-31 293 186 60 1488.0 3.06     BAL-HOU-PHI 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

Messersmith didn't pitch again, Weaver and Greinke have yet to pitch. Rest of career of first ballot Smoltz to 38/29/39% vote Schilling amuses me:

Rk           Player  WAR WAA/pitch ERA+ OPS+  WHIP From   To   Age   G  GS  GF     IP  FIP              Tm
1    Curt Schilling 51.2      36.3  133   75 1.129 1999 2007 32-40 267 245  21 1749.2 3.33     PHI-ARI-BOS
2        Luis Tiant 32.6      14.7  111   89 1.228 1973 1982 32-41 280 278   1 1942.1 3.61 BOS-NYY-PIT-CAL
3       John Smoltz 27.6      16.6  133   74 1.145 1999 2009 32-42 396 154 204 1245.0 3.11     ATL-STL-BOS
4        David Cone 26.5      14.9  117   84 1.342 1995 2003 32-40 192 190   0 1206.0 4.08 TOR-NYY-BOS-NYM
5        Jake Peavy  3.5       0.4  100  101 1.224 2013 2014 32-33  55  55   0  347.1 4.05     BOS-CHW-SFG 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

And none of the 8 did much before Age 23:

Rk             Player WAR WAA/pitch ERA+ OPS+  WHIP From   To   Age  G GS GF    IP  FIP  Tm
1        Zack Greinke 4.8       1.5   92  110 1.391 2004 2006 20-22 60 57  1 334.1 4.59 KCR
2         John Smoltz 3.5       1.2  103   92 1.246 1988 1989 21-22 41 41  0 272.0 3.65 ATL
3          Jake Peavy 2.6       0.3   91  108 1.348 2002 2003 21-22 49 49  0 292.1 4.55 SDP
4    Andy Messersmith 1.9       1.1  131   58 0.971 1968 1968 22-22 28  5  9  81.1 2.37 CAL 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/12/2015.

15. Cabbage Posted: March 12, 2015 at 11:43 PM (#4911222)

Walt's being coy, but that's another Dave Cameron special:

My first thought was Rich Lederer pimping Weaver as another Mark Prior going into the draft.

16. All In The Guetterman, Looking Up At The Stargell Posted: March 12, 2015 at 11:46 PM (#4911224)

Voxter, your #47 in that thread is good stuff.

17. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: March 13, 2015 at 02:07 AM (#4911264)

I didn't even remember being in that thread. I'd better check the timestamp.

18. Shibal Posted: March 13, 2015 at 02:19 AM (#4911266)

Voxter, your #47 in that thread is good stuff.

Indeed. Probably needs to be repeated.

Since I've been around Primer for a long time -- seven years, by my count -- I doubt I've changed it that radically. Nice for you to have an almost-clever turn of phrase to come back at me with, though! Hope that makes you feel good.

What's happened in that time is that some of us have come to understand that there's nuance to be had in the application and interpretation of statistics. I certainly have. There was a time when I was as affrontish and intolerant of disagreement as you were and continue to be, and when I looked at statistics and statistics only as a useful prism through which a non-professional could view the game. But as I've been around these boards, and watched more baseball, and read more things, it's become clear to me that statistical fundamentalism -- which is what this is; "John Smoltz is teh awesome becuz of de prifrals!" is what it boils down to, analysis by numbers, without subtlety or real thought -- is a recipe for having to eat your words a lot. A whole lot. In the area of DIPS in particular, things are almost invariably somewhat more complex than a guy's BABIP and his K rate, especially over a sample size as small as this one. Ignoring that fact doesn't make you a better analyst; it makes you a person whose analysis lacks relevance.

The fact is that you're the one making ridiculous statements. But that's nothing new for you. You're a fundamentalist, and you brook no disagreement, and when people notice that you're saying dimwitted things, you accuse them of being stupid. I try to avoid wandering into this kind of territory anymore, because, among other things, in the last seven years, I've grown up a little bit. Which seems to be more than you've done. I guess that's okay, but your attitude, both toward scenarios in which there is complexity when you want there to be clarity, and toward the people who see that complexity, damages the progress that some people are trying to make in the mainstream.

Maybe you don't want to tangle with us peons who make BBTF what it has become. If that's the case, then you should avoid having a hissy fit when we notice that you're saying stupid things.

19. Hombre Brotani

Posted: March 13, 2015 at 03:33 AM (#4911270)

Still not as funny as #6org.

20. JimMusComp misses old primer... Posted: March 13, 2015 at 09:32 AM (#4911306)

Damn, Voxter FTW. I don't recall that thread, but nicely done.

21. Rally Posted: March 13, 2015 at 09:34 AM (#4911308)

My first thought was Rich Lederer pimping Weaver as another Mark Prior going into the draft.

Rich was wrong on that, but in a good way.

22. All In The Guetterman, Looking Up At The Stargell Posted: March 13, 2015 at 09:56 AM (#4911316)

That thread inspired some time with the Great Gazoogle, who then led me to this thread which is full of awesome.

23. Greg Pope Posted: March 13, 2015 at 10:31 AM (#4911336)

That thread inspired some time with the Great Gazoogle, who then led me to this thread which is full of awesome.

I see commenting is still open on that thread. But it seems that some threads are closed after a couple of weeks. How do threads get closed (other than official shut-downs by the admins for content)? Is it a manual process?

24. Walt Davis Posted: March 13, 2015 at 06:47 PM (#4911726)

In fairness, Cameron wasn't exactly wrong in that thread. Smoltz was perfectly cromulent with the Cards for the rest of that season ... with an excellent FIP. 40 Ks in 38 innings, HR/9 under 1 and a bad but hardly horrible 314 BABIP. The results weren't nearly as good (ERA 1.5 runs higher than FIP) but the BABIP's not bad enough to explain that. All told still a 96 ERA+ in 7 starts. Weaver meanwhile got lit up in the 2nd half of 2009 -- 4.47 ERA, 112 OPS+ against, Ks down, BBs and HRs up a bit. I see Weaver also had a massive H/R split that year.

25. greenback needs a ride, not ammo

Posted: March 13, 2015 at 08:04 PM (#4911744)

In fairness, Cameron wasn't exactly wrong in that thread.

Yes, this is kinda a weird thread to resurrect. The thread looks like a knee-jerk contrarian response to a well-informed jerk. Can't blame folks, I guess, but Smoltz was fun to watch in 2009, if you were a Cardinals fan.

26. PreservedFish Posted: March 13, 2015 at 09:02 PM (#4911761)

And I mostly agree with Cameron (and disagree with snapper and others in the thread) regarding the issue of Smoltz's BABIP. Recently got into a big related argument here actually.

But I still totally love Voxter's takedown of Cameron. It's funny how this community, in comparison to the mainstream, seems to be full of cold, analytical nerds. But then you compare us with Fangraphs and in a moment we look like generous, thoughtful humanists.

27. bobm Posted: March 13, 2015 at 09:38 PM (#4911773)

[12] Sorta off topic, but man those tables seem to me to show how underrated Doug Fister is. You do not hear him mentioned as much as guys like Kershaw, Wainwright, Bumgarner, Felix, Price, etc. Is it solely because of the low K rates? He certainly appears to be getting the results you want, even if he isn't striking as many guys out.

It's interesting to me that you mention Fister in a Weaver thread. I don't see adjusted OPS for home/away splits on BR PI, but Fister and Weaver are both notable for big raw unadjusted home/away splits.

For cumulative seasons, From 2009 to 2014, Home (within Home or Away), (requiring GS>=150 for entire season(s)/career), sorted by greatest percentage of total On-Base Plus Slugging in this split

                                                 
Rk              Player  OPS OPStot     % GS GStot
1         Jason Hammel .778   .744 104.6 76   159
2           Jon Lester .699   .683 102.3 90   193
3       Bronson Arroyo .758   .745 101.7 89   176
4        Rick Porcello .759   .749 101.3 89   180
5        Kevin Correia .776   .769 100.9 87   170
6         Joe Saunders .812   .807 100.6 79   165
7      Yovani Gallardo .703   .700 100.4 98   190
8        Ervin Santana .731   .733  99.7 92   182
9        Trevor Cahill .728   .730  99.7 87   170
10      Ubaldo Jimenez .699   .701  99.7 86   183
11       Edwin Jackson .757   .760  99.6 92   185
12           Cliff Lee .654   .657  99.5 83   168
13           Mat Latos .652   .655  99.5 73   153
14        Max Scherzer .694   .698  99.4 93   191
15        Mark Buehrle .736   .741  99.3 99   193
16       Ryan Dempster .729   .737  98.9 79   156
17     Felix Hernandez .603   .611  98.7 97   199
18       Ricky Nolasco .751   .761  98.7 86   181
19         Cole Hamels .665   .674  98.7 95   190
20          John Danks .732   .742  98.7 75   154
21         R.A. Dickey .684   .694  98.6 80   160
22       James Shields .701   .712  98.5 99   200
23      Jeremy Guthrie .756   .774  97.7 97   191
24        Johnny Cueto .643   .662  97.1 75   163
25     Clayton Kershaw .548   .565  97.0 99   188
Rk              Player  OPS OPStot     % GS GStot
26        Gio Gonzalez .640   .660  97.0 86   173
27         Ian Kennedy .693   .717  96.7 79   162
28        Zack Greinke .639   .663  96.4 93   188
29     Adam Wainwright .608   .632  96.2 83   165
30       Hiroki Kuroda .657   .683  96.2 94   180
31    Justin Verlander .623   .648  96.1 94   201
32           Dan Haren .675   .704  95.9 97   194
33         C.J. Wilson .641   .670  95.7 79   165
34          Kyle Lohse .679   .710  95.6 80   166
35      Anibal Sanchez .649   .679  95.6 80   161
36   Francisco Liriano .668   .700  95.4 78   162
37        Tim Lincecum .651   .683  95.3 99   189
38        Aaron Harang .728   .765  95.2 91   164
39         David Price .618   .650  95.1 90   180
40           Matt Cain .618   .650  95.1 88   176
41          Bud Norris .709   .750  94.5 79   155
42        A.J. Burnett .694   .735  94.4 95   193
43          Matt Garza .648   .688  94.2 81   164
44        Jason Vargas .682   .725  94.1 83   164
45          Tim Hudson .625   .665  94.0 79   154
46         Doug Fister .637   .679  93.8 78   152
47         Paul Maholm .712   .762  93.4 79   154
48         CC Sabathia .643   .690  93.2 79   169
49    Justin Masterson .662   .715  92.6 84   166
50        Jered Weaver .584   .650  89.8 93   188
Rk              Player  OPS OPStot     % GS GStot

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2015.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 2009 to 2014, (requiring GS>=150), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+

                                
Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+
1      Clayton Kershaw  160   61
2      Felix Hernandez  141   73
3      Adam Wainwright  135   77
4            Cliff Lee  133   80
5         Johnny Cueto  131   83
6     Justin Verlander  129   75
7         Zack Greinke  125   84
8         Jered Weaver  125   81
9          Cole Hamels  123   86
10         David Price  121   81
11          Jon Lester  120   84
12         Doug Fister  120   87
13         CC Sabathia  119   84
14      Anibal Sanchez  118   86
15         C.J. Wilson  116   85
16        Max Scherzer  116   88
17           Matt Cain  116   84
18       Hiroki Kuroda  116   89
19        Gio Gonzalez  115   83
20         R.A. Dickey  114   93
21           Mat Latos  113   85
22          Tim Hudson  113   87
23        Mark Buehrle  111   99
24       James Shields  110   95
25          Matt Garza  107   89
Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+
26      Ubaldo Jimenez  107   90
27     Yovani Gallardo  107   93
28           Dan Haren  103   94
29       Ryan Dempster  103   99
30          Kyle Lohse  102   98
31         Ian Kennedy  102  100
32        Jason Hammel  101   97
33          John Danks  100   99
34       Trevor Cahill  100  100
35        Tim Lincecum   99   94
36      Bronson Arroyo   99  104
37       Ervin Santana   98  103
38       Rick Porcello   98  102
39      Jeremy Guthrie   98  108
40        Jason Vargas   97  103
41        A.J. Burnett   94  102
42          Bud Norris   93  109
43       Edwin Jackson   93  107
44   Francisco Liriano   92   95
45        Aaron Harang   91  115
46         Paul Maholm   91  113
47    Justin Masterson   91  100
48        Joe Saunders   90  120
49       Ricky Nolasco   87  109
50       Kevin Correia   83  116
Rk              Player ERA+ OPS+

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2015.

28. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2015 at 10:32 PM (#4912037)

Yeah, Fister is Weaver with better results the last couple of years. Fister was a very nice pick-up for Detroit. And of course he had spectacular results for the Nats ... but those peripherals in 2014 were pretty "scary". K-rate took a big drop, HRs spiked, saved by a fantastic BABIP and nice, low BB rate. That doesn't spell doom but it does suggest he won't have an ERA 1.5 runs below his FIP again. That said, ZiPS still puts him on a 3.30 ERA (3.50 FIP) which is good for a 117 ERA+. I think I'll take the over on the ERA. FWIW, they put Weaver at a 101 ERA+ so certainly fair to expect a lot more out of Fister this year.

29. Matt Welch Posted: March 15, 2015 at 04:07 PM (#4912186)

Weaver through this point in his career has been a decent match with David Cone and Luis Tiant were through age 31:

NM W-L W% IP ERA ERA+ WAR WAA K/9
JW: 131-69 .659 1688 3.28 124 36.4 20.5 7.49
DC: 111-70 .613 1693 3.12 123 35.2 20.6 8.24
LT: 98-80 .551 1544 2.86 120 33.5 19.8 7.42

Definitely better than Dave Cameron (and plenty of others) predicted.

30. Baldrick Posted: March 15, 2015 at 05:19 PM (#4912243)

Yes, this is kinda a weird thread to resurrect. The thread looks like a knee-jerk contrarian response to a well-informed jerk. Can't blame folks, I guess, but Smoltz was fun to watch in 2009, if you were a Cardinals fan.

Reading that thread made me physically uncomfortable.

The thing that (certain parts of) Primer has with Cameron is embarrassing.

Even if you think that he started it all or brings it on himself or whatever, be the ####### bigger person.

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