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Wednesday, October 06, 2021

Joel Sherman: How the Yankees can fix the biggest flaw holding them back

And the Yankees in their fanaticism behind velocity — out of the hand and, especially, off the bat — lost their way with a bunch of decisions that might make sense individually, but not collectively. It drained them of defense, diversity and athleticism. It was as if they never looked up to see what the Rays were doing on a shoestring budget to become the dominant force in the AL East or their West Coast doppelganger Dodgers were doing with the largest payroll in the majors.

Really, all they had to do was turn on the TV last year and watch the World Series between those teams to see how much less athletic they were by comparison.

Instead, stubbornness set in. They stuck with Gary Sanchez behind the plate and Gleyber Torres at shortstop and an offensive philosophy that bigger and stronger would generate enough runs to overcome all the other foibles. Even when they decided to add lefty bats, they did it largely by giving up prospect depth to land Joey Gallo, who was screaming from Texas in every way that he was the left-handed Sanchez and would never hit good top pitching when it mattered. The Yanks grew literally larger in physique, yet less intimidating.

The mystique and aura that once was the Yankees’ 10th and 11th men are gone.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 06, 2021 at 10:03 PM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: yankees

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: October 07, 2021 at 03:08 AM (#6044383)
Joey Gallo, +28 Rfield in the OF the last couple of years, +8 career baserunning and 26-8 career SB is un-athletic? Sticking with Gleyber at SS was questionable but the main problem with him is that his power has mysteriously evaporated.

The Yanks certainly didn't have the season I expected which was they'd slug like crazy while their rotation would be an injured mess. The rotation ended up really good even with no Severino and Cortes and Gil (needs to cut the walk rate but he's only 23) look like keepers. Chapman wasn't dominant but the rest of the key relievers had good years. Even on offense, Gardner really wasn't that bad, Sanchez and Urshela were OK. Clint Frazier put up an impressive -1.4 WAR in just 218 PA, that didn't work so well.

Anyway, plenty of SS on the market this year, grab one of those and move Torres back to 2B and LeMahieu can become super sub. I don't know there are any real CFs on the market but get the best one you can. First base needs some attention but whether it's Rizzo, Voit, Gallo or, if he has any future, Frazier I can't say. I'd add another good-excellent SP -- not sure what's available, not sure how insane the payroll is already.
   2. TomH Posted: October 07, 2021 at 05:17 AM (#6044385)
"The mystique and aura that once was the Yankees’ 10th and 11th men are gone. Part of it left more than a decade ago with a new mall — I mean stadium — that upped the amenities and lowered the menace for opposing players. But largely it is about one Yankees team after another being unable to excel in the postseason against any clubs outside of the AL Central. Opponents simply are not intimidated by the Yankees any longer."

- um, do you have like, any DATA that shows opponents have cut into the Yankees HFA since the new stadium?
- the last sentence assumes the Yankees postseason success pre-2010 was in part by opponents being intimidated. As opposed to better players and some good luck coin flips
Humans search (flail sometimes) for reasons behind everything. This article lands on a pretty dumb one.
   3. Cooper Nielson Posted: October 07, 2021 at 05:57 AM (#6044386)
Waitaminnit, the solution to the Yankees' problem is... Nicky Lopez?!?

Lopez does not have the power the Yankee baseball ops likes. But this team needs some batting average in the lineup, defense on the field and athleticism on the bases — all areas in which the switch-hitting Lopez excels.

Lopez batted an even .300 this year to bring his career average (1045 AB) up to .262. He batted .277 in three years at Creighton and .296 in the minors. He's 26.

If this is "excelling," then what are we to make of Gleyber Torres' .268 career average through age 24?

Nicky Lopez had a sneakily good year (4.2 WAR), but I'm not convinced he'll repeat it, or that he's the answer to any question worth asking.
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 07:15 AM (#6044389)
As if the Dodgers and Rays aren't swinging for the fences on every pitch, too -- the Dodgers out-homered the Yankees and the Rays hit the exact same number. Nobody has "diversity" on offense in today's game.

People seem to forget -- those Yankees teams that won so many games and postseason series between '96 and '09 were defined by walks, home runs, and dreadful up-the-middle defense. Same as this Yankees team.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: October 07, 2021 at 07:31 AM (#6044392)
This article literally uses the words, “mystique and aura”, I thought Schiliing drove the stake through that term.
   6. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 07, 2021 at 08:54 AM (#6044404)
People seem to forget -- those Yankees teams that won so many games and postseason series between '96 and '09 were defined by walks, home runs, and dreadful up-the-middle defense. Same as this Yankees team.


The thing that struck me watching the game the other night is what an unintelligent team the Yankees seemed to be. Some of it is stuff that is fairly common but still not OK like Stanton pimping not one but two singles and then their approach at the plate was so bad. That was highlighted by Gary Sanchez pinch hitting against Hansel Robles and his 12.5% walk rate. Sanchez chased a first pitch at the bottom of the strike zone on the outside corner and flew out harmlessly. Credit to Robles for making a pitch but you have to know you are facing a guy who is likely to give you some base runners if you wait. That pitch was never something he was going to hit hard.

More generally though the Yankees look like an OOTP or Diamond Mind team that isn't a team. Not in the 25 guys/25 cabs way but the pieces don't fit together well. Whether that's on roster construction or on Boone's management I can't quite put my finger on but there was an imbalance. The thought I had was the 2000/2001 Red Sox with Nomar, Pedro, Manny and a bunch of guys like Chris Stynes and Rey Sanchez. I was stunned when the lineup came out for that game and Brett Gardner was batting sixth and the starting shortstop was Andrew Velazquez. For a team that entered the year planning to contend for a World Series title there were a lot of guys in that lineup that underwhelmed.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:06 AM (#6044408)
Their problems came down to 1) LeMahieu didn't hit, 2) Torres didn't hit, 3) Urshela didn't hit, and got hurt, 4) Frazier got hurt. Put two of those four back in the lineup with the 120-130 OPS+ you'd expect, and it's a much better team. If three of them performed, you'd have a 100 win team.
   8. jmurph Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:15 AM (#6044411)
4) Frazier got hurt

Wouldn't it be bigger news if he wasn't hurt?
   9. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6044413)
LeMahieu's career OPS+ was 101 before this year, he was at 97. Urshela was at 100, he was at 96. Both of those guys performed in a manner that I think was reasonably predictable. I'm with jmurph on Frazier, this is just how he rolls unfortunately (he's still going to be better than Judge though! OK maybe not).

Torres is the huge disappointment. He's a guy I'd bet big on bouncing back next year.
   10. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6044414)
Some of it is stuff that is fairly common but still not OK like Stanton pimping not one but two singles

Eh, Stanton showed up, I'm not going to call him out, he smoked those balls. Hell, I thought the first one was OOTP off the bat; with the rest of the team not hitting it's not like it made much of a difference, unless he drove himself in, he wasn't crossing home.
That was highlighted by Gary Sanchez pinch hitting against Hansel Robles and his 12.5% walk rate. Sanchez chased a first pitch at the bottom of the strike zone on the outside corner

Have you *met* Gary Sanchez in a slump? He seems absolutely compelled to swing at low and away pitches that he couldn't hit with a boat oar; remarkable, really ... well, that or the definition of insanity.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:31 AM (#6044417)
LeMahieu's career OPS+ was 101 before this year, he was at 97. Urshela was at 100, he was at 96.

In 2019-220 LeMahieu had a 146 OPS+, Urshela was at 134. No one was expecting career numbers. Even 2017-20 would have been 112 and 113 respectively. Data from 2015 is not useful in projecting 2021.
   12. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6044421)
One of the problems with the Yankee offense is that while they led the league in walks and were third in homers, it was the same guys drawing the walks and hitting the homers. Judge and Stanton were the only guys on the team with OBPs over .350, which meant they didn't have very many players to drive in. If they had a Willie Randolph at the top of the lineup, they'd have won the division easily.

Also, when you have people like Sanchez and Torres who are still fairly young but are half the players they used to be, I wonder what the manager and coaching staff are doing.
   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 07, 2021 at 09:47 AM (#6044422)
A healthy Aaron Hicks might help a lot in 2022. He missed most of the season for left wrist sheath surgery. Don’t really know the prognosis on that generally, or Hicks specifically, but I haven’t seen anything indicating it’s career ending. Hicks gave the Yankees 8.3 WAR over 225 games not that long ago, two season of 122 & 127 OPS+. Anything in that neighborhood would be a considerable improvement on 2021 Brett Gardner, who would might have done a little better if limited to 200-300 PA rather than the 461 he was pressed into.
   14. KronicFatigue Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:00 AM (#6044425)
Eh, Stanton showed up, I'm not going to call him out, he smoked those balls.


Not running hard (twice!!) in a single elimination playoff game is probably the thing I would MOST call out. Absolutely inexcusable, especially the 2nd one. I mean, he just cost his team a base an hour or so earlier. Just run. JUST RUN.

   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:04 AM (#6044426)
Stanton can’t really run very well these days. Don’t know if off-season rest or treatment might improve his situation, but if he had busted it out of the box on those plays, I fear he would have come up lame, and/or been thrown out at 2nd.
   16. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:08 AM (#6044427)
Kronic, you're not wrong, but it's hard to blame a 6-2 loss on the guy who went 3-4 with a homer.
   17. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:09 AM (#6044428)
And health is always going to be an issue for Judge and Stanton, but if they pick up a SS who can get on base, they'll have as good a projection as anyone in the division next year.
   18. KronicFatigue Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:12 AM (#6044429)
Fine, if all he can do is jog, at least start jogging as soon as the ball leaves the bat.
   19. Jose Is An Absurd Balladeer Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:24 AM (#6044434)
I don't think anyone is blaming Stanton for anything but I think it's fair to criticize a mistake which is what that was. Especially the second one. The first one, hey fine, but the second one you should know the ball isn't travelling tonight so get your ass in gear. Doesn't make him a bad guy or a lollygagger, just someone who did something he shouldn't.
   20. bunyon Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:42 AM (#6044438)
If he can't run, he isn't to blame. But, yeah, not running on balls in play is something to criticize. Going 0-for happens all the damned time. Again, baseball isn't football. Guys can't just get amped up and hit harder or run a little faster. All you can ask is players play hard. If they're not effective in a single game? Eh, it is what it is.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6044439)
I thought we had just about rid ourselves of this type of column. Is it time for a FireJoeMorgan reboot?
   22. pikepredator Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6044440)
My main objection to Stanton not running hard is it lends credence to people who like to say stuff like "The Red Sox just wanted it more!!". Who are probably the same people who (a couple of weeks ago) were saying "The Red Sox don't want to get to the postseason, that's why they're swinging at everything right now."

I'm 100% sure Gerritt Cole wanted it as much as anyone and just didn't have the stuff to get the job done that night. I really feel for him. Fantastic pitcher coming off a great season . . . if I was him I would be in a pretty rough place right about now. I know MLB players are supposed to have short memories but to end the season like that would mess with my head for a while.
   23. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 07, 2021 at 11:01 AM (#6044445)
One of the problems with the Yankee offense is that while they led the league in walks and were third in homers, it was the same guys drawing the walks and hitting the homers. Judge and Stanton were the only guys on the team with OBPs over .350, which meant they didn't have very many players to drive in. If they had a Willie Randolph at the top of the lineup, they'd have won the division easily.

Or if LeMahieu's OBP hadn't dropped 72 points.

------------

Have you *met* Gary Sanchez in a slump? He seems absolutely compelled to swing at low and away pitches that he couldn't hit with a boat oar; remarkable, really ... well, that or the definition of insanity.

He's the Alfonso Soriano of 2021!

That low outside slider is sometimes impossible to lay off of, and when Judge or Stanton are in their funks, they have the same problem checking their swings.

The bigger problem with Sanchez is that his funks last a lot longer. And here are their respective career postseason OPS numbers:

Stanton: 1.102
Judge: .843
Sanchez: .602

-----------

I don't think anyone is blaming Stanton for anything but I think it's fair to criticize a mistake which is what that was. Especially the second one. The first one, hey fine, but the second one you should know the ball isn't traveling tonight so get your ass in gear. Doesn't make him a bad guy or a lollygagger, just someone who did something he shouldn't.

There's no real defense of Stanton, but neither of those trots likely cost any runs. In the first inning Gallo would've struck out to end the inning no matter whether Stanton was on first or second, and the real goat on his sixth inning wallbanger was Nevin, who never should have sent Judge home. It's no accident that the Yankees led the Majors this year in being thrown out on the basepaths.
   24. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 07, 2021 at 11:15 AM (#6044449)
Or if LeMahieu's OBP hadn't dropped 72 points.


To go back to Jose's point, LeMahieu's OBP was seven points under his career OBP. It was about what should have been expected for a player turning 33.

You guys are really cute when you talk about what to expect from DJ. Here are his OPS+ numbers since he became a regular:

age 24: 74
age 25: 75
age 26: 92
age 27: 128
age 28: 93
age 29: 88
age 30: 136
age 31: 178 (in 50 games)

What do you expect the next number in that sequence to be? Did you really think LeMahieu had become a completely different hitter at age 30, and was going to consolidate those gains into his 30s?
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: October 07, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6044452)
What do you expect the next number in that sequence to be?
~120. What did you expect?
   26. DCA Posted: October 07, 2021 at 11:55 AM (#6044464)
110. Anywhere between 80 and 140 wouldn't have surprised me.
   27. Rough Carrigan Posted: October 07, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6044468)
The bigger problem with Sanchez is that his funks last a lot longer.


Even George Clinton is impressed with Sanchez's funk duration.
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 07, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6044470)
My rule of thumb for these predictions (which I think I borrowed from Bill James) is that the best estimate of a player's ability is his career line, then you tick it up or down a notch based on his age and maybe a few other factors. For LeMahieu, he obviously had put up career highs the past couple of years, so maybe you tick it up some, but he was also turning 33, so maybe you tick it down some. There was also the fact that he had hit extremely well at New Yankee Stadium, which IMO was the main reason to expect a little more out of him than his career figures would indicate.

Add it all up, and I'd have put him down for about a 100 OPS+. Based on the same factors, I'd expect about 85-90 out of him next year.

These expectations are confounded by the abbreviated 2020 season. Do you treat DJ's great year last year as representative of his true talent level, or do you treat it like a 50-game hot streak?
   29. Nasty Nate Posted: October 07, 2021 at 12:31 PM (#6044472)
Do you treat DJ's great year last year as representative of his true talent level, or do you treat it like a 50-game hot streak?
To be glib, you do neither. You just treat it as 50 games worth of recent data.
   30. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 07, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6044475)
Is the claim that Stanton should have ended up on third base on the ball he hit into the Monster in the sixth inning? Because he absolutely crushed that ball, and he did end up on second, which seems like a pretty reasonable outcome in that situation.
   31. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6044507)
It's no accident that the Yankees led the Majors this year in being thrown out on the basepaths.



where do you find this number? Ive been trying to look up what the league average is.
   32. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6044510)
found it
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6044511)
My rule of thumb for these predictions (which I think I borrowed from Bill James) is that the best estimate of a player's ability is his career line, then you tick it up or down a notch based on his age and maybe a few other factors.

That's not the way the good projections do it. They only go back 3-4 years, and the early data gets less weight.
   34. stanmvp48 Posted: October 07, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6044524)
And in GIDP.
   35. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 07, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6044545)
Not running hard (twice!!) in a single elimination playoff game is probably the thing I would MOST call out. Absolutely inexcusable, especially the 2nd one. I mean, he just cost his team a base an hour or so earlier. Just run. JUST RUN.


Smash ball, JUST SMASH!
   36. Ron J Posted: October 07, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6044561)
#23 But that was completely predictable. I mean it's roughly what could have been expect when they signed him before the 2019 season and it's beyond uncommon for a player who's been playing regularly for years to suddenly have a new established level of talent (while fluke seasons happen all the time. And I think of 2019 and 2020 as basically a season)

This is pretty much what I was expecting before the season started.

For all that it can be seen as a disappointment it's also a 32 year old having his 4th best season with the bat. (at least by adjusted rate stats). And he's lost the plus speed he once had.

   37. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 07, 2021 at 05:45 PM (#6044571)
The biggest flaw holding the Yankees back is Aaron Boone.
   38. Howie Menckel Posted: October 07, 2021 at 10:53 PM (#6044691)
where do you find this number? Ive been trying to look up what the league average is.

can confirm that Yankees had been tied for most runners thrown out on bases before Judge broke the tie in game 163.

was it 23 or so?

32. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 07, 2021 at 02:39 PM (#6044510)
found it


"Sunday, please show your work to the class..."
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:17 AM (#6044704)
That's not the way the good projections do it. They only go back 3-4 years, and the early data gets less weight.


But it's like you're not even recognising that he is approaching his mid 30's? He used the inside out swing to his advantage at Yankee stadium, maybe the league decided to pitch him differently this year and take away those easy RF homers he gets in NY? He is nowhere near a career 125 OPS+ guy and I would expect him to be around 100 or worse next year.

If NY is hoping for production out of Gardner next year, then Tampa, Boston and Toronto will be happy with that.
   40. SoSH U at work Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:59 AM (#6044706)
can confirm that Yankees had been tied for most runners thrown out on bases before Judge broke the tie in game 163.


That wasn't game 163. They're still tied.
   41. villageidiom Posted: October 08, 2021 at 01:18 AM (#6044707)
That's not the way the good projections do it. They only go back 3-4 years, and the early data gets less weight.
That's the way the Marcels do it. And the Marcels were created to set a minimum standard for a good projection. It's almost by definition the least good of the good projections. That aside, I think when the most recent data is a 50-game sample in a pandemic, maybe the method of giving greater weight to that year isn't wise.

To illustrate, let's go back to the end of the 2019 season and figure what we would have projected for LeMahieu's 2021 stats at that time. His peak years (age 27-30) were 128, 93, 88, 136. We should expect true talent in peak years to be somewhat consistent, based on what we've observed from aging patterns. Thus based on those numbers we should expect his true peak was around 111. Now we're projecting a couple years past his peak, to 2021. An aging curve might have suggested we should see something closer to 100 in 2021, again without the knowledge of 2020 at that time, based on a 111 peak a couple years earlier.

OK, so now let's consider a forecast of 100, and then update it based on a small sample of 178 in 2020. Like, a 178 isn't even a typical deviation from his 2019, let alone 2016-19. You have an atypically high number coming from a small sample... That has almost no predictive value. Even in his peak seasons his OPS+ bounced around 25 points or so from that 111 estimate. There's no way you start at 100, see 50 games worth of play, and then revise the forecast to 120. You're sticking close to 100. Maybe you adjust him as high as 105? Maybe. His actual was 97, which isn't far off from that projection, and definitely within a reasonable range. More to the point, a *high* expectation would still have been a 50-point drop from last year, and lower than 2019.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: October 08, 2021 at 09:50 AM (#6044730)
OK, so now let's consider a forecast of 100, and then update it based on a small sample of 178 in 2020. Like, a 178 isn't even a typical deviation from his 2019, let alone 2016-19. You have an atypically high number coming from a small sample... That has almost no predictive value. Even in his peak seasons his OPS+ bounced around 25 points or so from that 111 estimate. There's no way you start at 100, see 50 games worth of play, and then revise the forecast to 120.
No one does projections based on ... the prior year's projections.

As far as I can tell, the projection systems had him for 105-110 OPS+ before 2020, and 110-120 OPS+ before this year.
   43. Greg Pope Posted: October 08, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6044752)
And the Marcels were created to set a minimum standard for a good projection. It's almost by definition the least good of the good projections.

I may be hopelessly out of date, but I thought that most projection systems did worse than Marcel. Maybe that's what you mean by "the good projections".
   44. Ron J Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6044768)
No. Most projection systems do better than Marcel, and pretty much always have.

It's just that people like Szym have put in an absolute ton of work and still have huge error bars. Even when you control for health (like for instance limiting the study to players with 500+ PAs in consecutive years -- and yes, that only imperfectly controls for health) there's a huge variation in player performance. And that's going to limit how good projection systems can be.
   45. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 08, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6044773)
No one does projections based on ... the prior year's projections.

As far as I can tell, the projection systems had him for 105-110 OPS+ before 2020, and 110-120 OPS+ before this year.


OK, I found Zips and Steamer projections in one of my fantasy league spreadsheets. I don't have OPS+, but I have OPS. Here's Zips/Steamer/Actual 2021 for the guys we've been discussing:

LeMahieu 820/806/711
Urshela 790/753/720
Torres 890/845/697
Frazier 788/773/633

Pretty large underperfromance.

You can also add in Voit 855/811/764. Judge and Stanton were both projected for 875-900 OPS, so basically met expectations.
   46. Darren Posted: October 08, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6044821)
The Yankees won 92 games in a "bad" year. There's nothing to fix.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: October 09, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6045080)
FYI: Past ZiPS projections are quite easy to find -- google "zips teamname year" and you'll almost always pull it up, fangraphs for the last several years, occasionally the old bbtf ones. LeMahieu was projected to a 119 OPS+ for 2021.
   48. Ron J Posted: October 09, 2021 at 08:49 PM (#6045083)
#47 Which is interesting. In essence it's saying 2019/2020 carried more signal than I'd have expected. (And I'm on record as to what I expected from LeMahieu.)

I know Gary Huckabay used to offer editorial comment on projections his system came up with that he disagreed with. Which always included the disclaimer that his system had a better track record than his hunches.
   49. Howie Menckel Posted: October 09, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6045086)
That wasn't game 163. They're still tied.

what's the differentiator that made 2021 Yankees-Red Sox game a postseason one but, for example, 1999 Mets-Reds a regular-season game? (er, in case it isn't obvious to all... :) )
   50. SoSH U at work Posted: October 10, 2021 at 03:42 AM (#6045118)
The Red Sox-Yankee game would have been played regardless whether they were tied. It’s a scheduled contest, with only the participants TBD. The 99 game was only played because the teams were tied, and that game untied them. Along those lines, the Sox and Yanks still finished the 2021 regular season tied for second.
   51. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 10, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6045130)
OK, I found Zips and Steamer projections in one of my fantasy league spreadsheets. I don't have OPS+, but I have OPS. Here's Zips/Steamer/Actual 2021 for the guys we've been discussing:

LeMahieu 820/806/711
Urshela 790/753/720
Torres 890/845/697
Frazier 788/773/633

Pretty large underperfromance.


I wonder what these systems were projecting as league average? The league OPS was .758 in 2019, .740 in '20, .728 this year. Unless that drop was anticipated, it will look like a lot of hitters underperformed their projections by more than they actually did.
   52. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 10, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6045131)
I wonder what these systems were projecting as league average? The league OPS was .758 in 2019, .740 in '20, .728 this year. Unless that drop was anticipated, it will look like a lot of hitters underperformed their projections by more than they actually did.

Following Walt's advice (hat tip) I found the 2021 Yankees Zips.

Zips OPS+/actual: Torres 136/93, LeMahieu 119/94, Urshela 110/96, Frazier 109/76, and for completeness: Judge 139/149, Voit, 134/109, Sanchez 100/99, Stanton 138/136, Gardner 106/90.

That's a pretty bad under-performance for the expected starting lineup.

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