Very cool guy.

Reds have a $20 mil option, $7 mil buyout - so the question becomes, is Votto in 2024 going to be worth $13 mil to the Reds? Probably not, but if they do the buyout, he might sign back for $5 mil or something. But with a 98 OPS+ this year, after an 88 last year, it might be time for him to retire. It'd be nice for fans though to get another season but I don't see it.

While it feels like it would be the natural end to Votto's career, at the same time, the 2024 Reds look like the exact type of young/close to contention team that would be in the market for a veteran presence/bat off the bench, so I don't see why you wouldn't want to bring him back if he still is interested in playing.

2/3: He can't hit a legit fastball anymore. Power pitching just kills him. It's a rough watch

MLB will be less interesting without Joey Votto.

A Pujolsian dead cat bounce would be a cool end, but of course, not very likely.

I'm not sure if he comes back but I would guess not. He's had his moments in the last couple of seasons but overall they have been rough, and the shoulder problem hasn't gone away even with surgery.

But it's been very cool to see him interact with all of the rookies this year. In a way this is kind of the perfect send-off season - the young team overachieves as Votto imparts his bits of hitting wisdom to the next generation.

One of the best guys out there. It's sad to see him go. I suspect that CIN wouldn't be interested in bringing him back. 1B is probably Christian E.S.'s future home. If he wants to play another season, he could probably find someone to sign him. OAK/LV? That's where great players go to die. It would be a shame though, single-franchise players might not, in the grand scheme of things, mean anything, but it's nice when it happens.

From 2008 to 2021 Joey Votto accumulated 40 wins above average. I think anyone who ever been 40 wins better than the average player over any period should be in the hall of fame (yes I would have inducted Mike Trout if he died after his age 25 season, sue me) barring membership in the Nazi party or playing with a syringe still in their arm.

Accumulating 40 WAA is really hard, by contrast Robin Yount's best run was 41 wins above average, and Derek Jeter only reached 35.8. Obviously Joey doesn't have Derek's rings and historical clutch narrative, but 11% extra peak value should be enough to get him admission to the eternal ballpark, even if he's not worthy to be seated in the inner circle with Jeter.

Yes, 13 years, 65 WAR (40 WAA) is generally enough for a relatively easy trip to the HoF, at least as long as you add some bulk outside of that (and it doesn't necessarily have to be good bulk). Votto's likely issues with the HoF have always been that he started too late to add bulk/milestones and his value is a bit more secondary. Give or take, he's Larry Walker at 1B -- Walker partly got caught up in ballotgedden so that he only squeaked in doesn't necessarily mean Votto will have a hard time. If this is it, then presumably he hits the ballot the same year as Miggy and the year after Pujols which probably doesn't help but should only slow him down by a couple of years maybe.

But some 13 year totals who didn't add bulk

Santo 71 WAR
Walker 64
Lofton 61
R Smith 62 (technically 14 years but he missed over half of 75-76)

Of course there's always Puckett and some other short career guys who got over without that sort of compact prodcution. Votto's MVP will help a lot. He might run into a few ballots with no-doubt first balloters (Miggy, Greinke the same year or next, Verlander, Scherzer) but even if those slow him down, he'll hit some quite weak ballots too. It looks like Helton will make it and I can't imagine Helton in with Votto out.

I was on the fence about his hall chances until his 2021 season. Without one more productive season, I think he would have been very borderline. Mostly because his traditional counting stats would have been so low. But as it is, he cleared 300 HR easily, and passed 2000 hits. Not that those are huge automatic numbers, but good enough to make him a plausible candidate for old-school types.

As for rate stats, it would have been nice to keep that 300/400/500 line, but he was losing it and needed to sell out for power. It was the right call, but it's still disappointing that it cost him so much AVG. At least he kept his OBP over 400, since that's what's really been his calling-card all along.

Lofton's candidacy confuses me. He seems like a good candidate, but was totally ignored by the voters. I suspect that the peripatetic nature of his later years hurt him. Nine teams in his last six seasons makes him seem like a replaceable journeyman, not an aging star.

Votto isn’t an inner circle guy, but he stacks up with other HoF 1st baseman:

Joey Votto: 64.4 career WAR | 46.9 7yr-peak WAR | 55.6 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162
Average HOF 1B (out of 24): 65.0 career WAR | 41.8 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162

That should be enough.

Votto will be in within three years, tops.

Lofton's candidacy confuses me. He seems like a good candidate, but was totally ignored by the voters. I suspect that the peripatetic nature of his later years hurt him. Nine teams in his last six seasons makes him seem like a replaceable journeyman, not an aging star.

Lofton debuted in the same first-year group as Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Piazza, Biggio and Schilling. He would have had a tough time making headway under any circumstances, for a variety of reasons. But in that class, he was doomed.

I suspect that the peripatetic nature of [Lofton's] later years hurt him. Nine teams in his last six seasons makes him seem like a replaceable journeyman, not an aging star.

Bill James looked into this and found the nomadic players do take a hit with Hall voting.

Bill's piece

The BTF thread

I think he's been seen as a legitimate HOF candidate for a while now, so he'll at least get consideration. He'll be joining the ballot just after Pujols, but I can't see Pujols staying on the ballot for more than a year.

If Cabrera is done after this season, Votto probably won't debut as the best hitter on the ballot, which will ding him a little. But his best path was probably always going to be a slow build, so I'm still bullish on his chances.

When Votto comes on the ballot, Todd Helton will be firmly ensconced in Cooperstown. I don't see any way where Helton is a better candidate, so I can't imagine his wait will be very long.

The best modern Votto comps I can think of are Edgar and Helton; all one team players with a great BA and OBP combined with good but not great (considering their era and position) power. Martinez and Helton took a while to get elected, but they still got there via the writers (or will next year, in Helton's case), and Joey has an MVP that they don't, plus he doesn't have the DH stigma of Edgar or the Coors stigma of Helton, so I suspect his election will come much quicker.

OBP still doesn't get the respect it deserves, but Votto led the league 7 times in 9 years from 2010-2018. In the 2 years he didn't, he was injured and played only 62 games in 2014, and in 2015 he posted a .459 but lost to Bryce Harper's epic first MVP season by 1 pt. That's a damn impressive run.

He's in.

Edit: Plus, as has been pointed out in other threads, there's a serious lack of HOF caliber talent from Votto's era, so if he and other borderline-ish types (Mauer, Utley, Posey, Molina) aren't elected, we're going to to see some lean elections in the near future.

Votto's not in. He's just not. (Well, not for awhile, anyway.)

Votto led the league (in OBP) 7 times in 9 years

As I've said before, leading the league in OBP is like getting the Libertarian Party nomination for congress.

I have to think if Votto doesn't get in after a few votes people are going to start asking "What are we doing here?"

Good dude. Really good player. Was great with fans.

Votto's not in. He's just not.

I think you are way off base. Votto will go in within 5 years of being on the ballot.

#19 - What makes you so confident he won't get elected relatively quickly (2-5 ballots)?

opining that so-and-so "shouldn't get in right away" is a completely different animal than "will get in, whether right away or fairly quickly."

the HOF electorate is ever-changing, and the percentage of BBWAA writers 5-6 years from now who don't care about dominating a league in OBP over a decade will be quite small at that point.

Votto is going in, and it won't be a long "while."

even if one believed the electorate was still of the generation that didn't care about OBP, well, that same generation always loved the "1-team player" mantra. I think the latter won't boost Votto as much as in decades earlier, but he gets in regardless.

Votto's not in. He's just not. (Well, not for awhile, anyway.)

You're very wrong about that, (in the sense that he'll get in easily). Suggesting otherwise is just completely ignoring the last 5-6 years of HoF voting.

Scott Rolen got in (no one expected that at the outset). Todd Helton will go in. And by the time Votto gets is up for election, on a ballot far less crowded with a resume that's even stronger than theirs, he will get in comfortably.

Votto will go in and go in early. His JAWS puts him at 11th. Almost everyone in the top 25 is either in, eligibility still open, had a PED problem or is Keith Hernandez.

Todd Helton, who has an almost identical case (one team player for a bad team, similar stats ) will get in in his 6th year. Votto will have limited competition on his ballots and won't have to fight the "Coors field" issue and has a much higher profile than Helton with the writers.

I'd be surprised if he isn't in by the third ballot and there's a non-zero chance he goes in on the first ballot.

It's not clear to me Votto is done yet either. I wouldn't be surprised if he tries another year

There's a lot of HOF 1B in this era: Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, Helton, Goldschmidt, freeman

Big Votto guy. Been lucky enough to meet him actually

But he’s done. Getting hurt regularly. His ability to draw walks kind of gone because if you have a really good fastball you can overpower him.

He knows it too which is why he keeps getting so emotional in various media joinups

Spirit willing but body saying sorry dude.

Hurts to write this. But it’s true

There's a lot of HOF 1B in this era: Pujols, Cabrera, Votto, Helton, Goldschmidt, freeman

I think this is stretching the word "era" a bit (Helton debuted 13 years before Freeman and 14 years before Goldy), but yeah, the last few decades (1990's through 2010's) have been a golden era for HOF first baseman.

That said, it looks to me like it's tapering off a bit. Of the active HOF hopefuls, Freeman, Goldy, Votto, and Cabrera are all between the ages of 34-40. Which 1B younger than Freddie's 34 looks most likely to be a future HOFer? Before this season I would've said Vlad Jr, but his regression is starting to get concerning. So is it Matt Olson now? Pete Alonso? I wouldn't bet even odds on either of them. The young crop of 1B doesn't look particularly impressive. Compare them to say, shortstops, where at age 30 or younger you have Turner, Seager, Bogaerts, Correa, Lindor, Bichette, Franco (if he ever plays again), Gunnar (if he settles in at short regularly), Witt, Volpe, De La Cruz, etc. I'd bet that at least a couple of them end up getting elected.

If there is ever a ballplayer who should be a one-franchise guy, Joey Votto seems like that guy. And he seems like the kind of guy who would like to see that happen.

I agree with others who think he is will make the HOF. The current voters have been rewarding players of his skill set. 300/400/500 would have really clinched it, but 290/400/500 still looks great. 64bWAR. 58fWAR. 12th in JAWS at 1B, surrounded by HOFers (and Rafael Palmeiro).

there's a serious lack of HOF caliber talent from Votto's era

The talent is there. The traditional stats won't be there. I wouldn't be surprised if no pitcher currently under 30 clears 200 wins.

#29 - Sorry, I might've phrased that badly. I meant there won't be a lot of players with HOF caliber CAREERS hitting the ballots in the next decade or so. With the players who debuted in the 2000's*, the problem is mostly with position players (Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke, and Sabathia are a good crop of HOF pitchers from that era). With the players who debuted in the 2010's and beyond, it's going to be a problem with pitchers, as the quantity of great position players seems to have recovered.

* Name all the clear HOF worthy position players who debuted from 1999-2009! With Cano thoroughly removing his name from consideration, I only count 3 no-brainers; Pujols, Ichiro, and Cabrera. Then we're down to borderline types like Votto, Utley, Longoria, and the catchers (Mauer, Posey, Molina). Even if you think all of those guys should be elected (I wouldn't vote for Longoria, personally), you're still left with half as many HOF position players as we usually have for a decade+ span.

There's going to be some thin ballots in the not too distant future.

If Cabrera is done after this season, Votto probably won't debut as the best hitter on the ballot, which will ding him a little.

Votto: .294/.409/.511
Cabrera: .306/.382/.518

Cabrera has more volume (3000 more PA), but he's not clearly a "better hitter".

Name all the clear HOF worthy position players who debuted from 1999-2009! I only count 3 no-brainers; Pujols, Ichiro, and Cabrera.

Beltre and Beltran are just a little before your cutoff but have careers that overlap. They fit in that group by birth date.

Utley should be a no-brainer.

Cutch is borderline, the modern day Dale Murphy. I thought Donaldson had a chance but he has aged poorly. David Wright got injured.

If this is it, I would love to see his last PA result in BB. Would be fitting. Really going to miss that dude. He's been an absolute joy to cheer for.

Did you see the bit where he dropped a Roger Peckinpaugh reference into an interview? I thought I couldn't like him more, and then he drops in a reference to a random 1920s shortstop.
(It was also a really funny interview.) He seems like a smart, reflective, and interesting guy. Pretty much the opposite of the baseball stereotype.

Beltre and Beltran are just a little before your cutoff but have careers that overlap. They fit in that group by birth date.

Sure, but there needs to be a cutoff somewhere. Plus Beltran is already on the ballot and Beltre will be (for one season) next year, so they're not really on the same voting timeline as Votto and Cabrera.

Utley should be a no-brainer.

Should, but won't be. I actually think other than Longoria he has the WORST chance of all the players I mentioned.

Cutch is borderline, the modern day Dale Murphy.

Neither Cutch nor Murphy are borderline. They're both solidly HoVG. I don't see Cutch doing much better than Murph (stayed on the ballot for the duration but peaked at 23%).

David Wright got injured.

Yeah. Pedroia, Tulo, and Braun also looked like HOFers until they got hurt and/or fell off a cliff around 45-50-ish WAR (same with King Felix, if we're adding pitchers).

So amongst potential candidates, we have the following active players by age (as of the last day of the 2023 calendar year):

40 - Votto, Cabrera, Verlander, Greinke
39 - Scherzer
38 - I guess Longoria, but I don't see him as having much of an actual chance
36 - Goldschmidt
35 - Kershaw
34 - Freeman, maybe Stanton (not sure how good his chances are anymore)
33 - Altuve, Cole, maybe Sal Perez
32 - Arenado, Trout, maybe JT Realmuto?
31 - Betts, Harper, Judge, J.Ramirez, Machado, maybe Bogaerts

Pretty small list of older candidates (35+) who could be retiring in the next few seasons. At least the group of guys in their early 30's looks great. And knowing the BBWAA, they'll throw in a couple of random closers to fill the gaps (Kimbrel and Jansen are both 35, for example).

Ziggy, I missed that one. Doesn't surprise me at all though.

Votto was "mic'd up" at first base during the Field of Dreams game last year, and he was outstanding. very, very likable fella.

fwiw, Peckinpaugh was chosen as the AL MVP in 1925 (undeservedly but still), and previously at age 23 had become the youngest manager in MLB history.

granting that Votto plucked the name because it's a fun one, but I'll stick up for Roger !
:)

Beltre and Beltran are just a little before your cutoff but have careers that overlap. They fit in that group by birth date.

Utley should be a no-brainer.

Sure but there are cases like those in every era so it doesn't really counter the point that there was simply a smaller number of HoF position players than usual during that decade. If you did "debuted in the 60s" you miss Gibson, McCovey, B Williams and Kaat. So if you count Beltre and Beltran as "early 21st century" that's fair enough but it also means we add those 4 guys (and the HoVGers) to the 1960s list.

And Santo should have been a no-brainer and Trammmell should have been a no-brainer and Allen should have been a no-brainer (maybe) and Walker and Blyleven and probably Raines and Edgar shouldn't have had to wait so long and .... And we can do the same with late starts, injuries and unexpected declines to make arguments for Fregosi, F Howard, McDowell, McLain, Foster, maybe Boog and Cedeno and a few others as HoF talents that got derailed. And there's still Reggie Smith. :-)

But sure, next to the issue of the thin ballots of the next 10+ years there's the issue of the even thinner future VC ballots. So, agreed, surely even if the voters snub Utley (Between greater reliance on sabermetrics annd the thin ballots, I think they will elect him), he's bound to be a VC selection eventually. God knows if VCs are currently selecting Baines and Oliva and others then I'm not ruling out Ian Kinsler much less Pedroia as future VC possibilities.

maybe Stanton (not sure how good his chances are anymore)

He has sailed at least as far as the edge of "it's too late even if he gets healthy" territory. The awesome power is still there but the last two years combined is now 863 PA of 201/287/442, 100 OPS+ ... still with 55 HRs. He's got 4 years left on the contract but if he can't improve on that soon, he's pretty much done regardless of health. He pretty clearly has no shot at the HoF without at least 500 HRs (currently 402) which will require him to at least get to around 8000 PAs (so about 1600 more). I'd say his chances of not having a roster spot in 2025 are probably better than his HoF chances at the moment.

It's happened sorta -- Jr got healthy in his mid-30s and from 34-37 put up 2000 PAs with a line of 274/354/519, 122 OPS+ (still sillyball) with 112 HRs. If Stanton replicated those raw numbers, he's very much back on the map and maybe even in as that would be prime Stanton. If he did the era-adjusted equivalent of that, he'd still make it over 500 HRs but the rate stats would take a hit and I think he'd be borderline at best. Still, thin ballots and, despite all the HRs in today's game, he might be the last 500 HR hitter they would be seeing for a while.

(Mookie has 252 at age 30; Judge 257 at 31; Harper 306 at 30 has the best shot; Machado, Freeman and Arenado have a shot. So it's pretty likely at least one of them will make it but it's possible they'll all have come up short by the time STanton hits the ballot. Then Kyle Schwarber HoFer!! :-)

Votto: .294/.409/.511
Cabrera: .306/.382/.518

Sure, those are similar and Votto is a sure HOFer in my book, but that does undersell Miggy a bit. Dude has 511 homers, 634 doubles and 3170 hits. That is some serious bulk on a hitters resume.

Should, but won't be. I actually think other than Longoria he has the WORST chance of all the players I mentioned.

He does have the worst chance, but I'm going to say Utley gets in through the writer's. (I won't say the same about Longoria). The changing nature of the electorate and the softness of the upcoming ballots will get him there, I predict.