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Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Joey Votto to have season-ending shoulder surgery on torn rotator cuff

The news somehow managed to get worse on Wednesday, however. After a thrilling walk-off win over the Philadelphia Phillies, it was revealed that Joey Votto would be having season-ending shoulder surgery on a torn rotator cuff on Friday, taking one of the very few watchable aspects of this club away until next March.

The Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale relayed the news as Votto held a presser after the game.

Considering he’d gone just 2 for his last 39 and was hitting .174/.281/.322 since July 1st, it had become pretty clear that something bad was wrong with him. This, it would appear, has a lot to do with that.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: August 17, 2022 at 03:32 PM | 66 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: joey votto

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   1. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 17, 2022 at 07:25 PM (#6092078)
If Votto is done, does he make the HOF?

(shakes Magic 8 ball)

"Outlook not so good."
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: August 17, 2022 at 07:29 PM (#6092080)
If Votto is done, does he make the HOF?


Yes. Five years on the ballot, tops.

Glad I could help, since your Magic 8 ball is clearly on the fritz.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:02 PM (#6092091)
I'm a bit disappointed to see Votto has never pitched. Not only does he seem like the kind of chill, humorous guy who would get a kick out of it but also I could have made a wry comment referencing good ol' PAP to explain this injury.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6092092)
Votto was "mike-d up" for a half-inning of the Field of Dreams game that lasted about 15 minutes.

ironically, it was similar to the Vin Scully form - start telling a story, pause for a moment while the pitch is thrown, then continue without missing a beat.

and that included a tale about his father having passed away 14 years ago and what this particular game meant to him.
   5. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:36 PM (#6092093)
Re 2: I hope you're right, but I just don't see it. 64 WAR puts him right on the borderline for a first baseman; 2100 hits and 342 HR are nice but not exactly slam dunk. No batting titles, and his career average has slipped under .300. (Yes, he's won seven OBP titles, which is like the Libertarian Party nominating you for Congress seven times.) Won an MVP...twelve years ago. And he's never even come close to a ring; hell, he's never played in an LCS, never mind a World Series! Plays for Cincinnati, which hasn't been relevant for decades.

Finally, not one of his top ten comps are in. Not one.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6092094)
If Votto hasn't done enough for the HoF, it's hard to see how another 6 weeks of this season was gonna make a difference. Even another year next year won't matter -- he'll break 350 HR and maybe reach 9000 PAs but neither of those are considered HoF break points.

Votto might struggle with more normal ballots or especially with crowded ballots. I'll agree with the 5 years, tops comment. Worst-case scenario for him is Pujols comes back next year along with Miggy -- he'll probably have to wait for those two to go in. He might then have Verlander and Greinke in his way.

Active WAR leaders:

Pujols -- probably hits the ballot 1 year ahead of Votto so no impact
Trout -- God willing active long after Votto is gone
Verlander -- probably hits the ballot the year after Votto so might block him for that one year
Kershaw -- Votto probably out of the way before he hits the ballot but may block him for a year if not
Scherzer -- see Kershaw although Scherzer will probably hit the ballot first
Greinke -- proably hits the ballot 1 year ahead of Votto but maybe he'll be back. A Votto-Greinke double bill in Cooperstown sounds right to me.
Miggy -- probably hits the ballot the same year as Votto, blocks him for that one year
Cano -- not an issue
Votto
Longoria -- worse case than Votto probably
Goldschmidt -- hopes to be Votto, probably hits the ballot around the time Votto is elected
Betts -- see Trout
Arenado -- see Trout
Yadi -- obviously not high on active WAR but going in, hits the ballot the year before Votto, might get in his way

So I guess I can barely see a worst-case scenario where Votto doesn't get elected -- (1) the BBWAA gets it into their head that they're only electing first-ballot guys for a few years so (2) he's blocked by Miggy then Greinke then Verlander then Scherzer then an early-retiring Kershaw the (3) by that time, Goldschmidt has finished his career without slacking off an now sits at like 75 WAR and gets on his first ballot followed by an early end to one of Trout/Betts/Arenado's careers and ...

JV 8500 PA, 297/412/513, 145 OPS+, 342 HR, 2100 H, 1100 RBI, 65 WAR, 1 MVP (2nd, 3rd), 6 AS (plus 2023 counting stats, could be honorary AS pick too)
EM 8700 PA, 312/418/515, 147 OPS+, 309 HR, 2247 H, 1259 RBI, 68 WAR, (3rd), 7 AS
LW 8030 PA, 313/400/565, 141 OPS+, 383 HR, 2160 H, 1300 RBI, 73 WAR, 1 MVP, 5 AS (Coors-inflated counting stats)
TH 9453 PA, 316/414/539, 133 OPS+, 369 HR, 2519 H, 1400 RBI, 62 WAR, (nada), 5 AS (ditto)

Helton's at 50% and has 6 more ballots which means he should be out of the way one way or the other when Votto hits the ballot. There's nobody serious in the current backlog that will still be on the ballot when he hits it. Beltran 2023 might be around to get in his way. Beltre 2024 and Mauer 2024 will be out of the way before he hits the ballot but Utley will probably still be around. Ichiro 2025 will be out of the way; CC might still be around but won't likely have any effect on Votto. 2026 has no serious candidates. Any major retirements last year?

So it's possible that the BBWAA gets very stingy and only elects 10 guys in Votto's 10 years on the ballot and there's a gaggle of Beltran, Votto, Utley, CC out of which the BBWAA only picks one or two. In that case, the VC adds him a couple of years later.
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: August 17, 2022 at 09:45 PM (#6092097)
Re 2: I hope you're right, but I just don't see it. 64 WAR puts him right on the borderline for a first baseman; 2100 hits and 342 HR are nice but not exactly slam dunk. No batting titles, and his career average has slipped under .300. (Yes, he's won seven OBP titles, which is like the Libertarian Party nominating you for Congress seven times.) Won an MVP...twelve years ago. And he's never even come close to a ring; hell, he's never played in an LCS, never mind a World Series! Plays for Cincinnati, which hasn't been relevant for decades.


Todd Helton will be elected within the next two years.

Todd Helton is an inferior candidate to Joey Votto in every conceivable way. Votto was better by merit. He was better by reputation (Votto one MVP, three Top 3 finishes. Helton one fifth place finish. Votto six A-S games, Helton five). Votto is probably seen as the best first basemen of the teens, Helton was never viewed that way (in part because of better competition at the position).

Finally, Votto is the guy mic'd up at the Field of Dreams game because he's quite personable. Helton is the guy you ask yourself, "have I ever heard him speak?"

My guess is Votto is in by the second ballot.

People need to stop looking at what happened 15-20-25 years ago and thinking it has relevance now. It's simply not the same Hall of Fame electorate, as the upcoming elections of Scott Rolen and Todd Helton demonstrate.
   8. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: August 17, 2022 at 10:24 PM (#6092098)
Votto was "mike-d up" for a half-inning of the Field of Dreams game that lasted about 15 minutes.


That just happened to be the only part of the game I saw, and I was coming here to post similar sentiments as you did. Those in-game interviews are typically brutal, but I was impressed by how seamlessly Votto shifted from compelling interview banter to in-game play.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: August 17, 2022 at 10:28 PM (#6092099)
Finally, not one of his top ten comps are in. Not one.

While the BBWAA is hardly a paragon of sabericity, they have evolved enough these old comps aren't very useful. Further, none of his comps are particularly good ones -- Lance Berkman is #1 with a sim score just under 900. Further, Larry Walker's only comps to get in are Duke Snider (#1) and Vlad (#8). Rolen's only comp to get in was Santo #7. None of Edgar's comps are in (Votto #4). A fair number of Raines' comps made it but the only post-war comp to make it was Brock. (Seriously, his comp list includes Fred Clarke, Max Carey, Jimmy Ryan and Enos Slaughter -- I wonder if he's the most modern HoFer that has 19th c comps.)

The old comps probably do still work in the sense that if a lot of your comps made it then you probably will too ... but that generally means you have 500 HR or 3000 hits or something close to those (see David Ortiz).

But what you're mainly overlooking is the weakness of the upcoming ballots. Over the next decade or so, a "big" year will be one in which there are 2 borderline or better candidates and, as luck would have it, that's usually one first ballot guy and 0 or 1 borderline guys. The first ballot guys get easily elected and out of the way and the borderline guys all hit 50% easily unless a large proportion of voters submit a ballot with only one name on it. If Votto debuted during ballotgeddon then he probably doesn't make it, he might even be gone in one ballot.

Just take a look at the active WAR list. Here's the complete list of players currently behind Votto's 64 WAR that are very likely to hit 70 WAR: Mookie Betts, probably Machado, maybe Arenado.

That's not a long list. Goldschmidt will probably pass Votto but not by a lot -- he needs 3 more full seasons just to catch him in PA, also needs those to reach 400 HR and probably 6 good seasons to reach 500. (i.e. Goldschmidt and Votto are close comps.) Freddie Freeman is next on this list and he's 32 and on only 48 WAR and <300 HR. Guess who else had 48 WAR at the end of his age 32 season ... and then put up 8 WAR at 33. The next potential candidates are Stanton 32 and Altuve 32, both at 45 WAR -- pretty sure Yanks and Astros' fans would be pumped if either of those guys made it to 65 WAR. (Wow, Altuve is having an outstanding year ... but still needs about 7 full seasons to make a run at 3000 hits.)

In short, even if he hits the backlog, Votto is going to have something like a 5-year run as easily the best (non-trashcan-banging**) hitter on the ballot. Votto is 38. Once Miggy & Pujols are out of the way, the oldest "slugging" HoF candidate is Golschmidt 34. After that, it's Freeman and Stanton at 32 and they both have plenty of work to do to catch Votto much less pass him although Stanton will cruise past 500 HRs if he does hang on long enough.

Simply look at Rolen and Helton. They've generally faced more crowded ballots, especially at the start. Now they're at 63 and 52%. I don't see any way that Votto doesn't eventually at least match Helton's vote total, wherever it ends up.

Somebody like Freddie Freeman will likely have more trouble. Trout, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Altuve, Stanton, Harper might all retire around the same time as Freeman (most probably a year or two later). If he can get back in gear maybe add Bryant; also Bogaerts and Story.

** Note, if they don't hold the Astros thing against him, I'd expect Beltran to be inducted before Votto hits the ballot; if they do hold it against him, I'm not sure he'll eat up enough votes to matter.
   10. Howie Menckel Posted: August 17, 2022 at 10:40 PM (#6092102)
I believe Bill James said 30 years ago that comps below 900 tell you nothing - or something like that.

of course, even the "950s" have to be adjusted for context, but that toy won't have any impact at all on Votto's fate.
   11. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 17, 2022 at 10:43 PM (#6092103)
Yeah but 342 HRs and 2100 hits still seems light. Saying he's on a weak ballot and/comparing to Helton may be true but its not a ringing endorsement. Is that the best argument he has one more ASB than Helton?
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: August 17, 2022 at 11:45 PM (#6092106)
active leaders, OBP

1. Mike Trout (12, 30) .4160 5986
2. Joey Votto (16, 38) .4122 8504
3. Bryce Harper (11, 29) .3913 5757
4. Paul Goldschmidt (12, 34) .3909 6773
5. Miguel Cabrera (20, 39) .3849 11365
6. Freddie Freeman (13, 32) .3848 7175
7. Christian Yelich (10, 30) .3772 5249
8. Kris Bryant (8, 30) .3762 4019
9. Alex Bregman (7, 28) .3757 3296
10. Albert Pujols (22, 42) .3743 12905

career leaders, OBP - .420 to .410

20. Mickey Cochrane+ (13) .4192 6211
21. Frank Thomas+ (19) .4191 10075
22. Edgar Martinez+ (18) .4178 8674
23. Turkey Stearnes+ (18) .4174 4291
24. Stan Musial+ (22) .4167 12721
25. Mike Trout (12, 30) .4160 5986
26. Cupid Childs (13) .4157 6770
27. Wade Boggs+ (18) .4150 10740
28. Jesse Burkett+ (16) .4149 9629
29. Todd Helton (17) .4140 9453
29. Mel Ott+ (22) .4140 11347
31. Roy Thomas (13) .4135 6602
32. Lefty O'Doul (11) .4133 3660
33. Joey Votto (16, 38) .4122 8504
34. Hank Greenberg+ (13) .4118 6098
35. Ed Delahanty+ (16) .4113 8402
36. Manny Ramirez (19) .4106 9774
37. Mule Suttles+ (21) .4102 3649

Votto is 10th in that grouping of 18 in PA* - not sticking out like a sore thumb

* - ok, 2 are Negro Leaguers, which is complicated. but still. this is a key category for newer voters, and he led his league in OBP 7 times.
   13. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 17, 2022 at 11:52 PM (#6092107)
Seriously, his comp list includes Fred Clarke, Max Carey, Jimmy Ryan and Enos Slaughter -- I wonder if he's the most modern HoFer that has 19th c comps.

Ichiro! has Carey, Clarke, and Harry Hooper as comps. Jeter has Eddie Collins at #10.

Greg Maddux has Tim Keefe and Kid Nichols as comps. Pedro has Bob Caruthers in his comp list.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: August 17, 2022 at 11:59 PM (#6092108)
Saying he's on a weak ballot and/comparing to Helton may be true but its not a ringing endorsement. Is that the best argument he has one more ASB than Helton?


Why on earth would you conclude the best argument is he has one more AS appearance than Helton?

He beats Helton, a near-direct comparable (not big power but great offense, solid defense, one-team NL first sacker) who is going to get elected in the next few years, by every measure. All of them.

And, as if his case needed any assistance, he'll enter a far less crowded ballot than the one Helton and Rolen did.

That's why he's an easy choice for the Hall. Concluding otherwise is simply ignoring what's taken place in Hall balloting over the last decade.

   15. Booey Posted: August 18, 2022 at 12:28 AM (#6092110)
Yeah, I'm with those who think Votto gets elected pretty easily. He's Edgar Martinez (including the 1 team thing, just like with the Helton comp), only with an MVP and no DH stigma.

There really was a significant dearth of HOF worthy position players who debuted in the 2000's, and it's going to start manifesting itself with some pretty "meh" ballots soon. Quick, how many 70 WAR position players debuted in the 2000's?! Pujols. That's the list (Cabrera and Cano flamed out right at the finish line). Votto (and others*) will benefit from their ballot competition in a way they wouldn't have if they'd hit 10-15 years earlier.


* For the same reason, Sabathia, Mauer, Posey, and Molina are others off the top of my head that I think will get elected easier than their stats and best comps suggest they should.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 18, 2022 at 12:55 AM (#6092111)
Joey Votto: 64.5 WAR | 46.9 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.2 WAR/162
Average HOF 1B: 65.5 WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

That doesn’t put Votto in the inner-circle, but he’s a comfortable fit in the modern-era Big Hall. He’ll probably be elected sometime in years 3-5 on the ballot.
   17. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:04 AM (#6092115)
Joey Votto peaked at 40 WAA before this dumpster fire season. There are more than a few 70+
WAR accumulaters who never even sniffed that far above average.

Prime example? 71 WAR Derek Jeter whose above average stretch peaked at 36 WAA.
   18. John Reynard Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:29 AM (#6092119)
Do we actually care if Votto gets into the HoF anymore given that Bonds and Clemens aren't in? I mean, whats the point of even looking at career quality if you're skipping those guys.

Votto....seems nice, no scandals, accumulated enough to be worth more than Rice and Dawson....OK, let him in.

I guess all I'm saying is it could be very random. Lou Whitaker easily is above the bar Votto's being compared to. I mean, he's not quite twice Votto's career value.....but, yeah.

I'm less in the mood to care if people get in anymore or not.

I don't see Votto as someone who should skate in. But, if he makes it after a few years, he's hardly the worst guy ever picked. Do we really need more 1B representing though?
   19. Lonnie Smith for president Posted: August 18, 2022 at 05:50 AM (#6092120)
Re: those earlier comments about Votto's on-air charisma, if you like the FoD game, I encourage you to sample these. Someone smarter than me (that is all of you) can find Votto's hot-mike from Opening Weekend in its entirety. I had no expectations that listening to anyone in-game would be interesting or useful. I was wrong. Votto puts on a clinic of how it is to play defense in real time while seamlessly bantering with the booth and Ozzie Albies. It's the quantum leap from the Crime Dog's instructional videos from back in the day.

Does this make Votto Cooperstown-worthy? No idea, though I'd like to propose we begin early voting for Votto's Frick Award candidacy based on these reels.
   20. Cooper Nielson Posted: August 18, 2022 at 08:21 AM (#6092128)
Seriously, his comp list includes Fred Clarke, Max Carey, Jimmy Ryan and Enos Slaughter -- I wonder if he's the most modern HoFer that has 19th c comps.

Ichiro! has Carey, Clarke, and Harry Hooper as comps. Jeter has Eddie Collins at #10.


That's a rather loose definition of "19th century."
   21. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 18, 2022 at 08:23 AM (#6092129)
I think the electorate will just look at Votto as one of those "never really thought he was a HOFer" type of guys. ("What was his batting average in big games? .000, cuz he never played in any big games!") I think he gets in eventually, maybe by the VC in 2040 or so.

Look, put Lou Whitaker in and then we can talk about Votto, OK?
   22. SoSH U at work Posted: August 18, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6092130)
Look, put Lou Whitaker in and then we can talk about Votto, OK?


Look, it's an entirely different group of voters. Lou should obviously be in (not before Bobby, but in nonetheless). But Lou and Votto will be considered by two separate set of voters, so his fate with the vets has no bearing on Votto's with the BBWAA.

But if you want to put a wager down that Votto doesn't get in through the BBWAA, I'd be happy to take your money.
   23. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: August 18, 2022 at 09:33 AM (#6092135)
Votto was a pretty similar hitter to Edgar (at least in terms of OBP/SLG/OPS+) and Edgar had to deal with the stigma of being a DH. It did take Edgar 10 tries to make it, but he did get 85.4% in his final year.

EDIT: didn't see Edgar in post #6.
   24. BDC Posted: August 18, 2022 at 10:14 AM (#6092138)
Here's where I need a new Stathead subscription to search for detailed comps … but I am too cheap :)

Though I am not sure what such a search would add. As noted above, Votto (as of today) is close to both Lance Berkman and Edgar Martinez (complete careers) by OPS+ and PA.

Votto is slightly below Harry Heilmann in OPS+ in about 450 fewer PAs; he is slightly above Harmon Killebrew in OPS+ but Killebrew has two seasons' or more of additional PAs. Votto is slightly ahead of Frank Howard in OPS+ but here, Votto has the two additional seasons.

Gold Glove fielding (even at 1B) and MVP peak are certainly reasons to group Votto with Edgar, Heilmann, and Killebrew instead of non-HOFers Berkman and Howard. Not too many truly comparable players are languishing outside the HOF.
   25. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: August 18, 2022 at 10:15 AM (#6092139)
Put me in the "he probably gets in" camp.

I think that last year helped him a lot. If 2021 had been in line with his prior couple years, 100 OPS+ <20 HR, the story would be that a great hitter flamed out early. It's just one year, but I think now the story is a great hitter got old, like everyone does. But getting old isn't the same as flaming out, he still had value late in his career. Without 2021, you're looking at (probably) four years of replacement level play to close out his career.

Anyways, if he does get in, I expect a really good induction speech. Maybe he'll go into broadcasting - Votto is a really interesting, insightful, and thoughtful guy.
   26. Red Menace Posted: August 18, 2022 at 11:18 AM (#6092147)
If we're counting All Star appearances I'll point out that Votto did not make the ASG in 2015, the year he finished 3rd in MVP voting and his 2nd most valuable year by WAR. This isn't anything unique to Votto. I'm sure many players miss out in great years and some of them make it up with reputation appearances late in their career. I'd give his fun mic'ed up moments as much consideration.
   27. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 18, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6092148)
Votto has done pretty well in MVP voting overall, in addition to his one win. That's a good signal that he was properly recognized as a great player in his time. That plus meeting the WAR thresholds and the OBP black ink should be good enough to push him in within a few years.

He's 33rd in MVP shares, which is pretty solid if not inner-circle territory. The guys around him who didn't get in had a shortened or disappointing career (Juan Gone, Dave Parker). Jim Rice, who is directly ahead of Votto, is a counterpoint in that it took him a long time to get in. But did not have the saber-imprimatur that Votto will enjoy.
   28. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 18, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6092155)
why stop at Todd Helton, why not compare him to Harold Baines?
   29. SoSH U at work Posted: August 18, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6092157)
why stop at Todd Helton, why not compare him to Harold Baines?


Because he's not being considered by the same group that elected Harold Baines. I don't know why people get confused by this.

Todd Helton will be elected within, at most, three elections.

The same electors will be considering Joey Votto's case a few years later. Todd Helton is the most directly comparable player to Joey Votto who will come on the ballot before these voters. They have a lot of the same characteristics (very good offense without tremendous power, solid defense at a non-defense position, single-team extra goodness, limited postseason work). But there is virtually no meaningful way where Todd Helton exceeds Joey Votto as a candidate. Votto was considered better during his prime (3 Top 3 finishes in MVP voting, including winning the award to Helton's single fifth-place finish - Votto is 33rd all-time in MVP shares, Helton was 312th). He was, in fact, better. Even the superficial. Votto has become one of the sport's best personalities. Helton will never be accused of that. Even the ballots work Votto's way - Helton's was quite crowded when he entered. Votto's will be more barren.

Joey Votto is simply a better candidate than Todd Helton, a player who will be soon elected to the Hall of Fame.

Yes, you could also look at guys like Will Clark or Keith Hernandez and believe there's not much difference between Votto and them. But Will Clark and Keith Hernandez are not being considered by the people voting on the Hall of Fame today, a group that is decidedly different than Hall of Fame electors of old, for two main reasons.

Unless you think Todd Helton is going to stall out between now and Cooperstown, the chances of which are almost nonexistent, there's no logical reason to believe Joey Votto won't join him there.
   30. The Duke Posted: August 18, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6092159)
It's not all about numbers for me. If you are one of the truly greats of your era, you should go in. If he had been a dodger or Yankee, he'd be a no-brainer. The small cities need their HOFrs too. How cool has it been to see two Twinkies go in and a couple tigers ?
   31. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6092163)

Because he's not being considered by the same group that elected Harold Baines. I don't know why people get confused by this.


yeah I get this. Im just saying if you want to go FUll Blown HoF Retardo Argument then you'd cite Baines or Lloyd Waner or someone.

The more serious pt. is; A good arguments for the HoF don't include comparisons to one player. There are unfair, misleading, etc. This was an oft cited concern of Bill James in many of his writings. One would think at this pt. that would be a common understanding among Sabr friendly people. This has never been a good argument or a compelling argument.

Helton's not even in the HoF. I'm not against Helton, maybe he is good enuf to fit there and not detract from the Hall. But he's not the litmus test of what is a HoFer. No one player is a litmus test. WHy should I even have to explain that?

No 16 makes a really good argument for Votto. WAR adjusts for era presumably and his WAR certainly seems to fit the average profile. So its much better than using those comparison scores which from what I gather really dont account for the context of that era, so like Bill Werber stealing 30 bases looks like a plodder when compared to the guys from the dead ball era.
   32. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:15 PM (#6092164)


Unless you think Todd Helton is going to stall out between now and Cooperstown, the chances of which are almost nonexistent, there's no logical reason to believe Joey Votto won't join him there.


what if by some strange twist of fate Helton does stall out? Say he goes full blown Schilling/MAGA tool, or some other nefarious thing happens. Then does Votto not deserve to go in? Why does your whole argument hinge on Todd Helton for chrissakes?
   33. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6092165)
Sunday - he's not making an argument about whether Votto is deserving, he's arguing that he will, in fact, go in. The reason that he will, in fact, be elected is that the same voters are about to elect a player who is an inferior candidate (not just player, candidate) in every respect.
   34. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6092166)
Votto's /JAWS/Peak/162 are above the average, career WAR a smidge below. All of Ortiz's are below the average and he has fewer career MV_P shares. We're wondering if Votto gets in wile Ortiz was first ballot?
   35. SoSH U at work Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:24 PM (#6092167)
Helton's not even in the HoF.


Do you honestly think there's a chance he stalls between the 52 percent he's at now and Cooperstown?

The more serious pt. is; A good arguments for the HoF don't include comparisons to one player. There are unfair, misleading, etc. This was an oft cited concern of Bill James in many of his writings. One would think at this pt. that would be a common understanding among Sabr friendly people. This has never been a good argument or a compelling argument.


But cut to the chase here sunday. Do you think Votto will get rebuffed by the BBWAA? Because I have no doubt he'll make it comfortably, regardless what current crank Bill James has written over the years. If you want to wager, I'd be just as happy taking your money as I would RMc's.

It's a different electorate. He's going in easily.
   36. SoSH U at work Posted: August 18, 2022 at 02:28 PM (#6092168)
what if by some strange twist of fate Helton does stall out? Say he goes full blown Schilling/MAGA tool, or some other nefarious thing happens. Then does Votto not deserve to go in? Why does your whole argument hinge on Todd Helton for chrissakes?


What?

My whole argument doesn't hinge on Todd Helton. Joey Votto would still be elected to the Hall of Fame in a world where Todd Helton doesn't exist, because Joey Votto was a Hall of Fame caliber player who was seen that way during his playing days (as evidenced by the all-star appearances, MVP shares, and, of course, WAR/WAA/WAR7, etc.).

I cite Todd Helton because he's such an easy comparison for the RMc types who continue to view the current electorate through the lens of the old electorate's traits. Helton is inferior to Joey Votto in every conceivable way as a candidate, and this exact same electorate is going to put him in within two years (three tops).

   37. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 18, 2022 at 05:52 PM (#6092194)
Ranking the last few years of inductees by Peak WAA makes Joey Votto close to inner circle level of HOF value.

Harold Baines: 7.0
Jack Morris: 13.9
Trevor Hoffman: 14.9
Jim Kaat: 17.0
Gil Hodges: 18.2
David Ortiz: 23.6 (TBF he was still well above average when he retired so could have added a bit if he played a few more seasons).
Tony Oliva: 25.9
Ted Simmons: 27.4
Lee Smith: 29.8
Minnie Miñoso: 32.6
Vladimir Guerrero: 32.8
Mariano Rivera: 32.9
David Jeter: 35.8
Jim Thome: 38.8
Joey Votto: 40.0
Edgar Martinezz: 41.0
Alan Trammell: 44.1
Roy Halladay: 44.4
Mike Mussina: 48.7
Larry Walker: 48.7
Chipper Jones: 53.4
   38. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 18, 2022 at 07:06 PM (#6092199)

Sunday - he's not making an argument about whether Votto is deserving, he's arguing that he will, in fact, go in. The reason that he will, in fact, be elected is that the same voters are about to elect a player who is an inferior candidate (not just player, candidate) in every respect


that's cool. I withdraw the objection
   39. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 18, 2022 at 07:12 PM (#6092200)
It's not all about numbers for me. If you are one of the truly greats of your era, you should go in


This is as simple as it gets. Votto has the hardware and consistent recognition that he's been considered one of the best of his era and fortunately for him his production on the diamond has generated enough stat wise to confirm it.

I think he'll get in and think it'll take 4-6 years.
   40. HBO disappeared Oscar Posted: August 18, 2022 at 09:07 PM (#6092212)
This place is so weird. For posters who seem to want and focus on facts and objectivity to not think Votto is a Hall of Fame worthy player is just bizarre. But then maybe it's the contrarian cool thing some are going for.

There are so many, many numbers to consider but for me it's Joey Votto being the force on a 2012 Reds team that had no business winning 87 much less 97 games. Brandon Phillips as your second best player? Ryan Ludwick? Zack Cozart? Drew Stubbs? That lineup was ####. Sure the division wasn't great but 97 wins??

Votto dragged that sorry franchise to looking good when it was his amazingness that distracted people from the warts everywhere. As he got old and the Reds went all in on not giving a #### then Cincinnati saw how bad it could be.
   41. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 18, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6092219)
In 2012 Joey Votto only played 111 games. Not to take away from his awesomeness (I feel certain he would have won MVP that year if he hadn't gotten hurt), but, the Reds were 50-38 with him before his injury, then went 33-16 with him on the DL, then 14-11 with him back in September. The 2012 Reds were awesome. Fewest runs allowed in the NL, playing half their games in the Great American Small Park.
   42. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 18, 2022 at 10:06 PM (#6092220)
I cannot believe it has already been 10 years since that season.
   43. HBO disappeared Oscar Posted: August 18, 2022 at 10:38 PM (#6092222)
41–good catch. I was marveling at what Votto accomplished and conflated seasons. Sloppy

Just a really great player and incredible ambassador for baseball.
   44. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 18, 2022 at 11:00 PM (#6092228)
Fans and writers all seem to love Votto. Plays old school, dresses old school, acts old school. I would be shocked if he does poorly in the balloting. If he would have held onto his 300/400/500 status, I would have called it a lock. Now I just think it is highly probable.

The WAA list in #37 is great.
   45. Booey Posted: August 18, 2022 at 11:51 PM (#6092232)
!!!PEDANTRY ALERT!!!

#37 lists Lee Smith's WAR, not his WAA. His peak WAA was a whopping 14.3
   46. Jaack Posted: August 19, 2022 at 12:09 AM (#6092233)
In 2012 Joey Votto only played 111 games. Not to take away from his awesomeness (I feel certain he would have won MVP that year if he hadn't gotten hurt), but, the Reds were 50-38 with him before his injury, then went 33-16 with him on the DL, then 14-11 with him back in September. The 2012 Reds were awesome. Fewest runs allowed in the NL, playing half their games in the Great American Small Park.


I'm not sure that a healthy Votto would have necessarily beat out Buster Posey that year, but it'd have been close. I wonder what the perspective on Votto would be if he had stayed healthy and won an MVP then, and then got the one vote in 2017 to win it then too. No one would question him as a Hall of Famer at all with 3 MVPs, and he was basically a month a way from making that a real possibility.
   47. Booey Posted: August 19, 2022 at 12:38 AM (#6092235)
Not that it will affect his HOF chances much (it may drop him an extra ballot or two), but the round number lover in me is a bit disappointed that Joey V couldn't hang on to his lifetime .300 avg though. He relinquished his membership in some fun clubs!

.300/.400/.500 club (min 5000 PA's):

Dan Brouthers
Ed Delahanty
Ty Cobb
Tris Speaker
Joe Jackson
Harry Heilmann
Babe Ruth
Rogers Hornsby
Lou Gehrig
Jimmie Foxx
Mel Ott
Hank Greenberg
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
Frank Thomas
Manny Ramirez
Chipper Jones
Todd Helton
Mike Trout (will lose his .300 avg before he retires)

I also like the .300/300 club (avg, HR), which consists of 21 HOFers...

Babe Ruth
Rogers Hornsby
Lou Gehrig
Al Simmons
Jimmie Foxx
Mel Ott
Chuck Klein
Hank Greenberg
Johnny Mize
Joe DiMaggio
Ted Williams
Stan Musial
Willie Mays
Hank Aaron
George Brett
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
Frank Thomas
Mike Piazza
Chipper Jones
Vladimir Guerrero

...3 future HOFers...

Todd Helton
Miguel Cabrera
Mike Trout (will lose his .300 avg and drop off the list)

...2 would've been HOFers if they could just piss clean...

Manny Ramirez
Robinson Cano

...and 1 Moises Alou. ;-)

Moises Alou
   48. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 19, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6092257)

There are so many, many numbers to consider but for me it's Joey Votto being the force on a 2012 Reds team that had no business winning 87 much less 97 games. Brandon Phillips as your second best player? Ryan Ludwick? Zack Cozart? Drew Stubbs? That lineup was ####. Sure the division wasn't great but 97 wins??


they're really not bereft of talent the way you are making it out. I like to count the number of 3 WAR players on a roster and call them blue chips or whatever. I usually count 2.8+ as blue chip since that rounds to 3.

The top teams usually have 7 or 8; its very rare to see like the recent LAD having like 10 I think it was. Thats rare.

2012 CIN has 7, pretty good about what i'd expect.
SFG, won the WS that year, only 5 thats truly impressive that few (Sandoval only played 108 games would extrapolate to 3, several others also short)
STL second in the central, only 6
ATL 8, thats good
WAS 7, would have thought more they had a loaded roster in those days.
LAD 2nd place in the west only 4, that's light especially for that franchise


SO no CIN is not over achieving, thats about the right number of blue chip guys I'd expect.
   49. cardsfanboy Posted: August 19, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6092265)
Do we actually care if Votto gets into the HoF anymore given that Bonds and Clemens aren't in?


Yes we do, just because there is a few injustices, doesn't mean fans don't want them to get it right when given other chances. I still care even though there is Jim Rice and Andre Dawson and Jack Morris in also (equally as bad of an injustice as keeping Clemens/Arod/Bonds out) I mean we can complain about the double standard of putting a roider like Ortiz in and not putting actual great players who roided also in. But it doesn't negate the caring about the system.
   50. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 19, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6092267)

I think Votto should be elected and the Helton comparison is very helpful, assuming that Helton continues his upward momentum. I'll feel better about it once Helton actually goes in, though.
   51. cardsfanboy Posted: August 19, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6092268)
The more serious pt. is; A good arguments for the HoF don't include comparisons to one player. There are unfair, misleading, etc. This was an oft cited concern of Bill James in many of his writings. One would think at this pt. that would be a common understanding among Sabr friendly people. This has never been a good argument or a compelling argument.

Helton's not even in the HoF. I'm not against Helton, maybe he is good enuf to fit there and not detract from the Hall. But he's not the litmus test of what is a HoFer. No one player is a litmus test. WHy should I even have to explain that?


I think Sosh is arguing something different than you are arguing, he's in the camp that obviously Votto is worthy, and is making the argument whether or not the voters will vote for him. I don't think he has put any argument about whether Votto should go in or not, he's pretty much saying that is a given as far as I can tell. (or see post 33... I'm replying to comments as I read the thread since I missed out on it originally)
   52. DanG Posted: August 19, 2022 at 01:07 PM (#6092273)
I was looking at the top 20 firstbasemen in WAR7. Except for Giambi it's all solid-gold hall of famers.

Rk WAR WAR7 JAWS WAR/162 Name    
1 113.6 67.6 90.6 8.5 Lou Gehrig HOF
2 100.3 61.7 81.0 5.3 Albert Pujols
3  92.3 57.9 75.1 6.5 Jimmie Foxx HOF
4  70.7 48.5 59.6 6.1 Johnny Mize HOF
5  79.9 48.4 64.2 6.0 Jeff Bagwell HOF
6  79.8 47.2 63.5 7.7 Dan Brouthers HOF
7  54.8 47.1 51.0 4.3 George Sisler HOF
8  84.3 47.0 65.6 6.8 Roger Connor HOF
9  64.4 46.9 55.6 5.2 Joey Votto
10 61.8 46.6 54.2 4.5 Todd Helton
11 55.5 46.5 51.0 6.4 Hank Greenberg HOF
12 73.8 45.4 59.6 5.1 Frank Thomas HOF
13 68.1 44.8 56.5 4.1 Miguel Cabrera
14 64.5 44.8 54.6 4.0 Willie McCovey HOF
15 57.1 44.0 50.6 5.9 Paul Goldschmidt
16 56.5 43.3 49.9 5.3 Bill Terry HOF
17 50.5 42.2 46.3 3.6 Jason Giambi
18 62.1 41.9 52.0 5.4 Mark McGwire
19 94.4 41.8 68.1 6.1 Cap Anson HOF
20 73.1 41.5 57.3 4.7 Jim Thome HOF 
   53. John Reynard Posted: August 20, 2022 at 01:49 AM (#6092342)
Yes we do, just because there is a few injustices, doesn't mean fans don't want them to get it right when given other chances. I still care even though there is Jim Rice and Andre Dawson and Jack Morris in also (equally as bad of an injustice as keeping Clemens/Arod/Bonds out) I mean we can complain about the double standard of putting a roider like Ortiz in and not putting actual great players who roided also in. But it doesn't negate the caring about the system.


I actually think Ortiz in and Bonds/Clemens/M_Ramirez all out has actually broken me on caring about the HoF. I mean, I'm vaguely happy if a guy I liked gets in. But, I don't actually think it has anything to do with quality of play, fame, or much of anything, except the bias of the people who own the Hall and how they've changed the voting specifically to guarantee the results they wanted. They didn't want Bonds and Clemens in and changed the rules to remove their last five years.

I think I'm actually in the "I hope someone makes an alternative HoF for baseball that actually measures quality of play on the field and game-changing innovations", rather than whatever the current one measures. If you have a HoF with Rice and Baines in and Bonds and Clemens out, you've harmed the hall more than you've harmed Bonds and Clemens.

I don't fault others for still caring about the HoF in its current form though.

Side HoF silliness, I'm rooting for Elvis Andrus to linger on for 10 more years and get to 3000 hits with the likely .250ish AVG at the end to see how that goes. I mean, 50 years ago, he'd go in for sure cause 3k hits. Ironically, 10 more years, at 1 WAR a year, would put Andrus in the same turf as Votto for career WAR.

I appreciate Votto's career a lot. I hope he bounces back next year and makes his case better. I think he's currently someone who is a bit below my line for HoFer. That is no slight on Votto. I just happen to be a harder grader than the real voters.
   54. John Reynard Posted: August 20, 2022 at 05:00 AM (#6092346)
I should add, I see Votto as comparable at this moment in his career to Tim Hudson. Hudson fell off the ballot this year. I don't think Votto will. But, I'm not sure what the huge difference between them is in total value to the teams they played for. They're close enough that Votto shouldn't be a sure thing to go in the HoF anyhow.
   55. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 20, 2022 at 05:25 AM (#6092347)

I think Sosh is arguing something different than you are arguing, he's in the camp that obviously Votto is worthy, and is making the argument whether or not the voters will vote for him.


yeah, I get that. I acknowledged that.
   56. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2022 at 11:13 AM (#6092360)
I should add, I see Votto as comparable at this moment in his career to Tim Hudson. Hudson fell off the ballot this year. I don't think Votto will. But, I'm not sure what the huge difference between them is in total value to the teams they played for. They're close enough that Votto shouldn't be a sure thing to go in the HoF anyhow.


The voters don't know how to handle current pitchers, and in fact have always had a problem handling non-elite of the elite pitchers. Votto is significantly better player than Ortiz, and Ortiz went in easy even with his roid taint. Votto is a defensive version of Edgar Martinez, and Edgar took 10 years. Although as pointed out the electorate is evolving and he had tougher ballots than Votto is going to see, so that may not be as important to the discussion, but either way it looks like he'll get in pretty easy.


   57. John Reynard Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:15 PM (#6092396)
The voters don't know how to handle current pitchers, and in fact have always had a problem handling non-elite of the elite pitchers. Votto is significantly better player than Ortiz, and Ortiz went in easy even with his roid taint. Votto is a defensive version of Edgar Martinez, and Edgar took 10 years. Although as pointed out the electorate is evolving and he had tougher ballots than Votto is going to see, so that may not be as important to the discussion, but either way it looks like he'll get in pretty easy.


I'm not arguing the merits of Votto vs. Ortiz remotely. I prefer Votto to Ortiz in the hall as well. Ortiz is in because he's associated with the Sox who broke the curse and then won multiple times and was ever amiable (even if roiding). Its proof at some level that what has kept Bonds/Clemens out is their surliness with the press, not their roiding. Or, perhaps you can get in the hall by being "very good" roiding, but not as an all-time great roiding, which is so perverse of an idea that goes back to why I care much much less about the hall than 20 years ago.

If Votto as of right now is in, then Hudson should be in. My value model (probably half way between WAA and WAR in results most of the time) shows a less than 3% career value difference between them.

What counts as "elite" as a pitcher though? Do you have to be Randy Johnson-tier to get recognized? If so, why don't hitters have to be better than Chipper Jones to be in the hall of fame?
   58. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:17 PM (#6092397)
I should add, I see Votto as comparable at this moment in his career to Tim Hudson. Hudson fell off the ballot this year. I don't think Votto will. But, I'm not sure what the huge difference between them is in total value to the teams they played for. They're close enough that Votto shouldn't be a sure thing to go in the HoF anyhow.

Votto has 6 more WAR (per B-R; Hudson does even worse by fWAR). That's not an enormous amount, but it's not nothing for a comparatively borderline candidate. Votto also has a significant peak advantage; again by bWAR, Votto has five 6-win seasons, Hudson only has three 5-win seasons. Votto's 7th-best season is about as good as Hudson's 4th-best. And if you're comparing chances of actually making the Hall (rather than the statistical merits of the players), Votto, as noted, is 33rd all-time in MVP shares; Hudson is 97th in Cy Young shares (an award that hasn't been given out for as long).

I would happily vote for both Votto and Hudson given the chance. But if I was picking between them for the last spot on my ballot, Votto seems like a fairly easy choice.
   59. SoSH U at work Posted: August 20, 2022 at 07:45 PM (#6092401)
The high opinion of Tim Hudson by some in these parts has always surprised me. I don't know what folks see in him that distinguishes him from guys like Buehrle or Petttite, to name two other guys who won't be getting in.
   60. Ron J Posted: August 20, 2022 at 08:16 PM (#6092404)
#59 Probably not much. I think it likely that anybody who supports Hudson is at least on the fence about Buehrle.

Pettite is complicated.
   61. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: August 20, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6092410)
The high opinion of Tim Hudson by some in these parts has always surprised me. I don't know what folks see in him that distinguishes him from guys like Buehrle or Petttite, to name two other guys who won't be getting in.

All three of them are in my consideration set. (I tend toward the big-Hall side of things.)
   62. Booey Posted: August 20, 2022 at 09:32 PM (#6092411)
What counts as "elite" as a pitcher though? Do you have to be Randy Johnson-tier to get recognized? If so, why don't hitters have to be better than Chipper Jones to be in the hall of fame?


I don't think these examples really work. Lots of pitchers in the HOF are better than Tim Hudson yet worse than Randy Johnson. There's like a 45 WAR difference between them, so tons of middle ground between borderline (Hudson) and inner circle (Johnson). Amongst recent inductees, Glavine, Smoltz, Mussina, and Halladay all fit that bill. So do Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke, and all those guys will get elected easily (the first 3 are first ballot locks).
   63. ReggieThomasLives Posted: August 21, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6092464)
I should add, I see Votto as comparable at this moment in his career to Tim Hudson. Hudson fell off the ballot this year. I don't think Votto will. But, I'm not sure what the huge difference between them is in total value to the teams they played for. They're close enough that Votto shouldn't be a sure thing to go in the HoF anyhow.


Hudsons WAA peaked at 31, Vottos at 40, they aren't in the same ballpark, league or even same species.
   64. sunday silence (again) Posted: August 21, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6092472)
I actually think Ortiz in and Bonds/Clemens/M_Ramirez all out has actually broken me on caring about the HoF. I mean, I'm vaguely happy if a guy I liked gets in.


The other thing is that I find a huge disconnect between the HoF organization saying these guys cant get it and then MLB basically saying we really cant discipline and/or negate the HOU trash can championship. These are two separate organizations (MLB and hof) to be sure but there doesnt seem to be any sort of uniform stance against cheating (not to mention whether there was an official rule against steroids). If you're gonna keep Bonds and CLemens out then wtf should we recognize HOU as champions?
   65. cardsfanboy Posted: August 21, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6092537)

What counts as "elite" as a pitcher though? Do you have to be Randy Johnson-tier to get recognized? If so, why don't hitters have to be better than Chipper Jones to be in the hall of fame?


You do realize we are talking about whether he will get in or not, not whether someone is deserving or not? But just because your system says there is a 3% difference doesn't mean others see it that way. I sure as heck don't(and would pretty much laugh at any system that did). Hudson is a guy who had a couple of great years and then a few above average years to pad the war. Outside of someone who just grades players by career total, I can't think of any reason to think that Votto = Hudson.

but yes, the bbwaa has a tendency to ignore second tier pitchers, just like second tier catchers and third baseman, and centerfielders. Or at least make them work for it, but second tier hitters first positions, they have no problem putting them in. (or in case of Rice, fourth tier players also) Vlad, Ortiz, Edgar(had a problem of course), Brock(fourth tier), Gwynn etc. ,
   66. Dillon Gee Escape Plan Posted: August 22, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6092561)
The only position player with more fWAR since Votto's debut is Trout... and Votto's behind by 21.7 wins (79.7 to 58.0). Insane.

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