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Thursday, June 20, 2019

John Sickels’ Top 100 prospects (UPDATED) – The Athletic

Sickel’s latest.

Here’s the current Top 100, with updated ranking and grade. Note that this does NOT include 2019 draftees.

1) Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays, Grade A: Previously number 4; hitting .326/.396/.514 in Low-A; best position player long-term still in the minor leagues.

2) Mackenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres, Grade A: Previously number 8; completely dominant in High-A with 1.21 ERA in 60 innings, spectacular 83/14 K/BB.

3) Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros, Grade A-: Previously number 11, got off to a slow start in AAA but has been on a tear recently, now up to .282/.356/.633 with 23 homers, 17 steals in 66 games.

4) Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade A-: Previously number 9; insane 0.92 ERA in 78 innings, 75/12 K/BB between A and AA; went on DL with sore shoulder recently, otherwise he would be number three; will have to monitor health status.

5) Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A-: Previously number 17; excellent in AAA at .315/.391/.663, performed well in big league trial at .281/.333/.531 in 64 at-bats; he’s ready and thus this ranking.

Jim Furtado Posted: June 20, 2019 at 03:48 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pay site, prospects

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 20, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5854237)
With the way prospect lists are going, I assume Casey Mize is the grandson of Johnny Mize, Kyler Tucker is the son of Michael Tucker, and Wander Franco is the great-great-great-grandson of Julio Franco.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 20, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5854247)
I assume Casey Mize is the grandson of Johnny Mize,

Johnny Mize's grandson is probably 50.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 20, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5854250)
Wander Franco is the great-great-great-grandson of Julio Franco.
Wander Franco is actually Julio Franco with a fake ID.
   4. RoyalFlush Posted: June 20, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5854255)
Johnny Mize's grandson is probably 50.


How about Larry? Are we getting warmer?
   5. Walt Davis Posted: June 20, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5854261)
For Sickels to put a low-A player at #1 suggests the kid is really special. He usually puts reasonably heavy weight on likelihood of making it , not just pure potential.

Slightly surprised to see Hiura #5 but his reasoning jives with my opening. My surprise is because even folks here seemed agreed his defense wasn't very good at 2B which leavves him a bit without a position at the moment. Right now the bat looks good enough to carry a corner so he'll probably find one soon enough.

EDIT: it's only been a dozen games or so since his return but Shaw is still not hitting -- 194/342/323 in that time. The Brewers probably won't wait much longer for his bat to wake up before deciding this just isn't his year and reinstalling Hiura.
   6. geonose Posted: June 20, 2019 at 06:14 PM (#5854267)
Keith Law had Franco #3 pre-season, behind only Juniors Vlad & Tatis, so presumably he is #1 for him now as well.
   7. Howie Menckel Posted: June 20, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5854418)
the first two "Wander" players in organized baseball debuted in 2001. a couple dozen since then, and now Wander Suero pitches (poorly) for the Nationals.

I wander how the name became popular.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 21, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5854601)
My surprise is because even folks here seemed agreed his defense wasn't very good at 2B


It looked fine to me, FWIW.
   9. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 21, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5854646)
8–thanks. I was in that chat and kept asking for a scouting report or equivalent that Hiura has a defense problem. Nada. Just posters using shaky logic that since he was demoted his defense must suck.
   10. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 21, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5854657)
5--Shaw has been even worse than the OPS suggests. Like last night he gets up 3-0 and sure take the 3-0. But next two pitches are not that fast fastballs down the middle and he just watched. I don't boo as a rule but holy #### if there was a time that might have been it. Like WTF Travis?
   11. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: June 21, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5854668)
Casey Mize is a good prospect and all, but the Mize-love seems a bit over the top to me. In an era where K rates are out of this world, his are merely good. 8.7/9, to go along with about a 6 K/BB ratio. Both good, but compare him to Nate Pearson, who is pitching at the same levels at the same age. Pearson is at 12/9 and 7 K/BB respectively. Admittedly small samples in both cases (90ish innings for Mize, 70 for Pearson), but I think that I like Pearson better.
   12. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 21, 2019 at 12:04 PM (#5854673)
11–really good point. So many people fail to compensate for context be it baseball or other
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: June 21, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5854700)
I was in that chat and kept asking for a scouting report or equivalent that Hiura has a defense problem. Nada. Just posters using shaky logic that since he was demoted his defense must suck.


There were pre-draft questions about whether or not he'd be able to stick at second base because he was coming back from an injury to his throwing arm, an injury from which he ended up recovering just fine. I think people are remembering that there were concerns, but not exactly what type of concerns there were, so they're just assuming that he's a bad fielder, rather than a guy who played DH in his draft year because he physically wasn't able to throw yet.
   14. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 21, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5854745)
13--Totally. And the one defensive drawback that has been regularly mentioned is the mediocre arm. And he's still a bit stiff on the DP per the Brewers. But nobody has called him out as a Rickie Weeks type where you are thinking who thought this guy can play second
   15. bfan Posted: June 21, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5854779)

There were pre-draft questions about whether or not he'd be able to stick at second base because he was coming back from an injury to his throwing arm


I think at some point the use of a cut-off man for his throws from second base is going to hinder his success.

In all seriousness, the guy can rake and he ought to find some at-bats. I think next year he will join the now large group of very good hitting 2B in the majors.
   16. Walt Davis Posted: June 21, 2019 at 06:44 PM (#5854802)
I think next year he will join the now large group of very good hitting 2B in the majors.

Huh? 2B is the worst-hitting position this year, even 14 points of OPS worse than C and 21 points worse than PH. Last year they had about the same OPS but did outhit C and PH ... but were still 19 points worse than SS, 13 worse than CF and 50 worse than 3B. Probably just a blip in history (they hit pretty darn well in 2016-17) but maybe some weird new trend.

As to this year, there are only 3 qualified 2B (80% at 2B) with positive Rbat -- Lowe, Albies and Schoop (barely). The 4th best OPS+ among qualified 2B is 92 (Brian Dozier). And there are only 12 qualified 2B. Altuve has been hurt but he was off to a below-average start but at least he drops Dozier to 5th by OPS+. The 80% line also leaves Moose out so that's another "2B" who's been hitting well this year (Milw has had the best overall 2B in MLB this year). Merrifield also has spent half his season in RF and LeMahieu a good chunk at 3B. Maybe that's a blip or a new trend where good 2B are becoming good rovers.
   17. RobDeer Posted: June 21, 2019 at 10:23 PM (#5854886)
In an era where K rates are out of this world, [Mize's] are merely good. 8.7/9, to go along with about a 6 K/BB ratio. Both good, but compare him to Nate Pearson, who is pitching at the same levels at the same age. Pearson is at 12/9 and 7 K/BB respectively.


Pearson's rate stats are helped by averaging 3.37 IP per game this season compared to Mize's 6.0
   18. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 22, 2019 at 05:14 AM (#5854925)
As to this year, there are only 3 qualified 2B (80% at 2B) with positive Rbat -- Lowe, Albies and Schoop (barely). The 4th best OPS+ among qualified 2B is 92 (Brian Dozier). And there are only 12 qualified 2B. Altuve has been hurt but he was off to a below-average start but at least he drops Dozier to 5th by OPS+. The 80% line also leaves Moose out so that's another "2B" who's been hitting well this year (Milw has had the best overall 2B in MLB this year). Merrifield also has spent half his season in RF and LeMahieu a good chunk at 3B. Maybe that's a blip or a new trend where good 2B are becoming good rovers.

Ketel Marte's another one. He's played about 45% of his defensive innings at 2B this year, a bit more than that in CF, and a handful of games at SS. He was primarily a 2B last year.
   19. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 22, 2019 at 05:18 AM (#5854926)
Ketel Marte's another one. He's played about 45% of his defensive innings at 2B this year, a bit more than that in CF, and a handful of games at SS. He was primarily a 2B last year.

Max Muncy, Jeff McNeil, Tommy La Stella.
   20. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 22, 2019 at 05:25 AM (#5854927)
Gleyber Torres, Derek Dietrich, Howie Kendrick...

There's definitely something going on with 2B rovers.
   21. Bote Man Posted: June 22, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5854968)
I really think Howie Kendrick can stick in the bigs.

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