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Friday, April 19, 2019

Justin Verlander wants to be the Tom Brady of baseball

It’s Justin Verlander’s 36th birthday.

The day he officially moves closer to 40 years old than 30. The day he creeps nearer to middle age and further away from the best physical version of himself. Not that you’d ever know it.

“Happy birthday,” shouts pitcher Brad Peacock, who’s seated on one of the tan leather couches in the middle of the Houston Astros’ spring training clubhouse. It’s 8:16 on a balmy south Florida morning, Feb. 20, and Verlander has just entered the locker room. Dressed in a powder blue, collared shirt and navy shorts, he is a whirlwind alpha-dog presence.

“Twenty-seven again,” shouts Verlander with a broad and mischievous grin. Though the comment is directed at Peacock, he speaks loudly enough for everyone in the spacious room to hear. “Prime of my career.”

Wait a minute- this isn’t some sort of gross insult, but something one would want to be?

 

QLE Posted: April 19, 2019 at 09:49 PM | 117 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: justin verlander, tom brady

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   101. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 24, 2019 at 08:31 PM (#5835056)
I guess I will zag, when everyone else is zigging. I think Manning and Brees are the overrated ones. Not that they aren't great, but still overrated.

It never ceases to amaze me, that even here on a saber-friendly baseball board, people can't wrap their heads around the fact that park effects are important. Everybody knows that Domes in football inflate offense by a lot. But we can't add one and one together and get to the logical conclusion.

There is a huge benefit to playing half your games in a dome, versus Massachusetts in late fall and winter... It's like getting to play in pre-humidor coors field.

If you look just at road numbers, Brady has a significant advantage:
------------TD   INT   AY/A
Brady      262   102   7.74
Manning    262   142   7.29
Brees      217   121   7.07 


Brady (9.10 AY/A) actually does significantly better in domes than either Manning (7.96) or Brees(8.08) too, despite all of his being away games, while Manning and Brees have almost all home games, though it is only in 14 games.

Manning and Brees got to inflate their numbers by playing in domes. They just did.

I could see the case for Rodgers getting there, but he will have to keep playing at an elite level into his late 30s. I can't take your candidacy seriously when you are 20k yards and 200 TDs behind.

And that's all before factoring in any postseason credit at all...
   102. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5835062)
It never ceases to amaze me, that even here on a saber-friendly baseball board, people can't wrap their heads around the fact that park effects are important. Everybody knows that Domes in football inflate offense by a lot. But we can't add one and one together and get to the logical conclusion.

There is a huge benefit to playing half your games in a dome, versus Massachusetts in late fall and winter... It's like getting to play in pre-humidor coors field.


Well, I had no clue. That's something!
   103. kthejoker Posted: April 24, 2019 at 09:30 PM (#5835079)
Football is such a team and coaching and injury and mental/psychosocial dependent sport. It makes no sense to choose your best quarterback based on statistics alone.
   104. PreservedFish Posted: April 24, 2019 at 09:37 PM (#5835080)
What does it look like if you only look at non-dome road games for Brady vs Manning?
   105. bachslunch Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:48 AM (#5835165)
@101: true enough about playing in a dome. Should add, though, that Manning played outdoors in Denver and put up three seasons that rivaled his best while there. I think he’d have been a candidate for GOAT anywhere he played.
   106. bachslunch Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:48 AM (#5835166)
There’s a dome effect for placekickers as well. Fine as Morton Andersen was (and I don’t begrudge him his HoF membership), he played in domes most of his career. Other PKs who are ranked among the best in adjusted FG percentage (Lou Groza, Jan Stenerud, Nick Lowery, a good bit of Gary Anderson’s career) didn’t have that advantage.
   107. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5835177)
This seems like a partially relevant article for the QB discussion. (Though I don't think they addressed things like any dome effect.)
   108. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:13 AM (#5835179)
What does it look like if you only look at non-dome road games for Brady vs Manning?

If I had those splits, I would give them to you. But just relying on pro-football ref's split page. So you get what they have easily available (can't figure out how to search by stadium type in PI either).

But FWIW, pretty sure Manning has more road games in domes than Brady, since he had a dome team (Texans) in his division most of his career, he got to play at every year.

The point though, isn't just that domes are great for offense (they are), but also that Foxboro (and similar places) sucks. It's often cold, it's often windy. It's sometimes snowing. That's just not great weather for offense.

Here are some fun splits I could find for you. Manning vs New England:
Home: 4-4 W/L, 18 TD 6 INT, 8.86 A/YA

Road: 2-9 W/L, 24 TD 20 INT, 6.20 A/YA
(all 8 home games were with IND fwiw)

It gets worse if you add in postseason, where you add 2 road losses (and a combined 3.12 A/YA), and 3 home wins (7.96 A/YA). (2 of those home games in Denver)

I know you expect some HFA, but those differences are really, really stark.
   109. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5835180)
This seems like a partially relevant article for the QB discussion. (Though I don't think they addressed things like any dome effect.)

Seen that linked before. Didn't think it passed the smell test. Just too much WTF in the results to take them seriously. Chad Pennington 19th overall? Brett Favre not in the top 30? I mean I know I think he is overrated too, but that is ridiculous. I mean we had somebody in this thread argue for him ahead of Brady...
   110. PreservedFish Posted: April 25, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5835182)
It's an improvement, though. Chad Pennington ranks 14th overall before the adjustment. Anyway it's just QB Rating, it's not meant to be comprehensive.
   111. jmurph Posted: April 25, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5835202)
Football is such a team and coaching and injury and mental/psychosocial dependent sport. It makes no sense to choose your best quarterback based on statistics alone.

Sure but the other thing is winning. And if we're not talking about stats or winning we're basically just choosing laundry, which is fine as far as life goes obviously, that's what we do as fans, but not particularly helpful in a discussion comparing all time greats.
   112. JL72 Posted: April 25, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5835207)
Brett Favre not in the top 30?


How you rank Favre is really going to depend on how much of a penalty you give for interceptions. Because the man threw a lot of them.
   113. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5835239)
It's an improvement, though. Chad Pennington ranks 14th overall before the adjustment. Anyway it's just QB Rating, it's not meant to be comprehensive.

Sure. I don't use QB Rating for anything.

But when your whole premise is "QB Rating does a poor job of comprehensively evaluating quarterbacks, let's improve it," you had better come up with a rating that does a good job at comprehensively evaluating quarterbacks.

What they have done is taking ####, and made it into a #### sandwich. Great. It is inarguably better, at least there is some bread there. But I still don't want to eat it.
   114. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5835243)
How you rank Favre is really going to depend on how much of a penalty you give for interceptions. Because the man threw a lot of them.

Sure, no argument. Like I said, I do think he is generally overrated. But I am still putting him comfortably ahead of Chad Pennington.
   115. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 25, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5835292)

Well, I had no clue. That's something!

Same here. It's perfectly intuitive but I had never really thought about it before, not being that much of a football fan. I assume this is accounted for in the advanced stats?
   116. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 25, 2019 at 01:53 PM (#5835307)
Same here. It's perfectly intuitive but I had never really thought about it before, not being that much of a football fan. I assume this is accounted for in the advanced stats?

As far as I can tell, not at all. But I have not looked at the black box behind some of them, I admit.
   117. aberg Posted: April 25, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5835368)
Football is such a team and coaching and injury and mental/psychosocial dependent sport. It makes no sense to choose your best quarterback based on statistics alone.


I am way more comfortable comparing baseball players I never saw play than comparing football players I never saw play.
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